The euro and U.S. dollar made up more than seven of 10 SWIFT payments worldwide in 2024, outperforming many other currencies. This is according to a monthly report meant to track the market share of China's yuan renminbi within the international bank transfer system SWIFT. Although China holds the largest forex reserves in the world, the yuan ranked as the eighth-used currency in international payments. The figures concern customer-initiated and institutional payments and exclude trade. Discussions on the potential weakening role of the U.S. dollar especially touch world trade and forex. For example, the share of the USD in forex reserves declined visibly against the euro and Japanese yen in 2023. What sparked this de-dollarization trend, and will it continue? Trade sanctions and de-dollarization De-dollarization in 2023 is mentioned mostly alongside trade and the BRICS countries - an informal name given to Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The combined GDP of BRICS is about 25 percent of the world's economy. After the start of the Ukraine war and Russia received economic sanctions, the BRICS slowly evolved into a trading bloc. The group increasingly wanted its own currency to settle payments within the trade bloc, to avoid using the U.S. dollar. In August 2023, BRICS will gather in South Africa to discuss the creation of such a new joint currency. Additionally, 19 countries - including Argentina, Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Yemen - expressed interest in joining the BRICS group. CBDC, or projects into a digital payment settlement A factor of future uncertainty for the U.S. dollar is how central bank digital currencies (CBDC) develop in emerging countries. Several projects exist between individual countries that specifically target cross-border interbank payments. A cooperation between Thailand and Hong Kong, Inthanon-Lionrock, ranks as the most advanced of these projects. CBDC does not require the U.S. dollar to function. Tangible such as commodities or gold can back them. The value of transactions processed with CBDC is to grow by 260,000 percent between 2023 and 2030.

The U.S. dollar was the most common currency in foreign exchange reserves in 2023, comprising more than three times the amount of the euro in global reserves that year. This total peaked in 2015, partly due to the strength of the dollar during the Eurozone crisis. The share of the U.S. dollar has lost since to the Japanese yen and euro, as well as other currencies. Why do foreign exchange reserves matter? When countries with different currencies export goods, they must agree on a currency for payment. As a result, countries hold currency reserves worth trillions of U.S. dollars. After World War II, the U.S. dollar itself became the international currency in the Bretton Woods Agreement and is thus the most common currency for international payments. The United States Treasury is also seen by most as risk-free, giving the country a low-risk premium. For this reason, countries hold U.S. dollars in reserve because the currency holds value relatively well eventually. China and currency reserves Since 2016, the International Monetary Fund has included the Chinese renminbi (yuan) as part of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket. This decision recognized the influence of the renminbi as a reserve currency, particularly in several Asian countries. China also holds significant foreign exchange reserves itself, funded by its large positive trade balance.

In November 2023, 80 percent of global yuan transactions had been cleared in Hong Kong. The proximity of the city to mainland China made it predestined to be the largest market for yuan in the world. Since many Chinese and international investors funneled their investors through Hong Kong, the demand for yuan was very high.

International transactions

The most common international transactions is the transfer of money. In total, the value of global payment revenues reached almost two trillion U.S. dollars. To complete a transaction, both parties have to agree on a currency, which is in most cases the U.S. dollar, making the U.S. currency somewhat of a global currency. This position as a global currency has many political and strategic advantages.

Internationalization of the yuan

The Chinese government strives to challenge the U.S. dollar’s role in global trade. Since all countries who want to trade internationally need to buy U.S. dollars, nations are very dependent on the United States to maintain a steady reserve of U.S. dollars. China’s foreign currency reserves amounted to over three trillion U.S. dollars. To enhance its independence and ability to project its financial assets, China wants to increase the role of the yuan in global trade. One way to achieve this goal is to establish clearinghouses abroad. For instance, London has became the largest market for yuan outside the Greater China region.

In 2024, overall e-commerce transactions approached 46.41 trillion yuan, decreasing from around 46.83 trillion yuan the year before. E-commerce development in ChinaChina's e-commerce industry has enjoyed above-average growth in the last few years. In 2023, gross merchandise volume on online shopping amounted to about 15.43 trillion yuan, while around 13 trillion yuan was generated by physical goods. According to the CNNIC, the number of online shoppers in China have surpassed the 900-million-mark in 2023. An important target group of China's booming e-commerce sector is the mobile user segment. As of 2022, around 71 percent of the e-commerce transactions in China were conducted via mobile devices, and the share is expected to grow to 76 percent by 2026. For many Chinese consumers, smartphones have became their primary choice in making online shopping. Another factor rapidly utilized by the Chinese e-commerce industry is social media presence. Chinese consumers rely heavily on friends and peer groups for shopping information. Therefore social media has gained a lot of relevance for e-commerce endeavors. As of the first quarter of 2022, the social commerce website Pinduoduo had more than 750 million monthly active users.