Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies.

The India solar rooftop market attained a volume of 13.70 Gigawatt in 2024. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.40% during the forecast period of 2025-2034 to reach a volume of 166.87 Gigawatt by 2034. Urban EV charging hubs powered by rooftop solar systems are primarily driving demand by combining clean mobility with decentralised energy generation.

Key Market Trends and Insights:

• The North India solar rooftop market dominated the industry in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 31.2% over the forecast period.
• By end user, the industrial category is expected to register the fastest CAGR over the forecast period.
• By grid type, the on-grid category is projected to exhibit a CAGR of 31.2% over the forecast period.

Market Size & Forecast:

• Market Volume in 2024: 13.70 Gigawatt
• Projected Market Volume in 2034: 166.87 Gigawatt
• CAGR from 2025 to 2034: 28.40%
• Dominant Regional Market: North India

The market is undergoing a structural shift, driven by the commercialisation of distributed energy and evolving electricity economics. One major driving factor is the surge in time-of-day (ToD) tariff regimes and corporate decarbonisation mandates. With the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission pushing for ToD metering in 2024 and mandating its rollout in 2025, commercial users, especially in IT hubs and industrial clusters, are fast-tracking rooftop solar adoption to hedge against peak hour charges. As per the India solar rooftop market analysis, the country’s capacity is expected to reach 25-30 GW by FY27, led by the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector, which made up 75% of installations.

Government-backed incentives are also amplifying this momentum. The PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana, launched in December 2024, targeting 1 crore households, has achieved 10 lakh application conversion within the first quarter of 2025. Moreover, the Rooftop Solar Programme Phase II, extended till 2026, is funding for infrastructure, directly supporting discom-tied projects in both urban and peri-urban zones.

Moreover, India’s net metering cap for residential systems is prompting residential users with larger rooftops (especially in tier-1 and tier-2 cities) to participate actively in decentralised generation. Together, policy traction, tariff rationalisation, and private sector PPA models are shaping the India solar rooftop market dynamics that is moving beyond its subsidy-first identity.