Crude birth rates, age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates (live births), 2000 to most recent year.

Following a spike to 2.5 children per woman in the mid-1960s (during the second wave of the post-WWII baby boom), Germany's fertility rate then fell sharply to around 1.5 children per woman in the 1970s, and it has fluctuated between 1.2 and 1.6 children per woman ever since. Germany's fertility rate has been below the natural replacement level of roughly 2.1 children per woman since 1970, meaning that long-term natural population growth is unsustainable. In fact, Germany has experienced a natural population decline in every year since 1972, and its population has only grown or been sustained at its current level through high net immigration rates.Find more statistics on other topics about Germany with key insights such as crude birth rate, life expectancy of women at birth, and total life expectancy at birth.

In 1800, the total fertility rate in the region of present-day Latvia was 5.2 children per woman; meaning woman born in Latvia in that year could expect to have just over five children on average during the course of their reproductive years. Fertility in Latvia would decline steadily in the 19th century, primarily due to advancements in healthcare and declining child mortality rates, and also due to economic improvements in the years following the agricultural reforms of 1849, which would see a significant improvement in the living standards of the country’s peasantry. Fertility would decline faster in the 1930s and 1940s, due to the instability and devastation caused by the Second World War and Great Depression.

Following the end of the war, fertility would resume its steady decline until the 1970s and 1980s, when Latvian authorities promoted population growth and implemented financial incentives for mothers. However, with the demographic shifts following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, and economic downturn following the adoption of the market economy, women across most former-Soviet states were much more reluctant to have children in the 1990s. By the turn of the millennium, Latvia's fertility rate had fallen to just over one child per woman in 2000. While fertility has recovered somewhat following Latvia’s ascension to the European Union in 2004, total fertility remains below replacement level in the country, and in 2020, it is estimated that the average woman born in Latvia will have just over 1.7 children over the course of her reproductive years.

Introduction to fertility estimates

Fertility refers to the number of live births within an individual or group, influenced by a combination of biological, social, cultural, and economic factors.

There are several ways to describe fertility rates, but two of the most commonly used are Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR) and Total Fertility Rates (TFR).

Age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) measure the number of births per woman within specific age groups. For example, in England, the peak childbearing age is currently 32, with an ASFR of 0.107, meaning 107 babies were born for each 1,000 women aged 32.

Total fertility rate (TFR) is a commonly used measure of overall fertility calculated as the sum of all age-specific fertility rates across all reproductive age groups. It represents the average number of children that a woman would have if she were to experience current age-specific fertility rates over the course of her life. For 2023, we estimate the TFR in Inner London to have been 1.16 compared to 1.54 in Outer London, and 1.41 for England as whole.

About these estimates

The estimates published here were produced by the GLA for use in analysis and as inputs to population projections. These data include annual estimates for all local authority districts and regions in England and Wales from 1993 onward of:

• Total Fertility Rates
• Age-Specific Fertility Rates by single year of age (15 to 49)

The GLA is making these estimates and the code used to create them as a resource for analysts and researchers working to understand local birth trends. We welcome feedback and suggestions from the community for how these data could be improved or made more useful.

The code used to produce these estimates is available on GitHub. All the requirements and information necessary to recreate the estimates can be found in the README file. This repository also includes some examples of code for plotting age-specific and total fertility rates across local authorities and periods of interest.

The Office for National Statistics also publishes fertility rates for local authority districts and higher geographies. Age-specific fertility rates are published by five-year age groups and for 2013 onward. These data are available to download from Nomis.

Note: There will be differences between the rates published by the GLA and those available from ONS. These are because the GLA:

• models rates for individual ages 15 to 19 and 40 to 49 from aggregate data
• applies smoothing to age specific rates
• uses population denominators for 2002 to 2020 that differ from the official mid-year estimates used by ONS.

Data and methods

The data used to calculate fertility rate estimates are:

• ONS calendar year births by age of mother from 1993
• ONS mid-year population estimates from 1991 - 2000
• GLA estimates components of change modelled backseries from 2000

Raw age-specific fertility rates are calculated by dividing the number of births in a calendar year by the population of women the same age at the mid-point of that year.

Smoothed rates, covering individual ages from 15 to 49 are produced by fitting a series of parametric curves to the raw fertility rates.

Age-specific fertility rates are summed across all ages to obtain total fertility rates.

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In 1900, the fertility rate in turkey was just over 6.9 children per woman, meaning that the average woman born in Turkey in that year could expect to have approximately seven children over the course of their reproductive years. This figure would see little change for much of the first half of the 20 th century, falling only to 6.7 children by 1945. However, the fertility rate in Turkey would begin to see dramatic change in the years following the Second World War, as fertility would initially rise in the post-war, global baby boom, only to begin rapidly falling as Turkey began to modernize and access to contraception became more widespread in the country. Fertility would fall the fastest in the 1980s, as Turkey would experience high levels of urbanization and improvements in access to education for women. As a result of these developments, the fertility rate in Turkey would fall to approximately 2.6 children per woman by the turn of the century. This trend would continue steadily into the 21st century, and in 2020, Turkey has a (roughly) replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman.

In 1925, the total fertility rate in the present-day region of Thailand was just over six children per woman, meaning that the average woman born in Thailand at this time could expect to have just over six children over the course of her reproductive years. Fertility would remain largely stable at this level until the 1970s, when Thailand would begin to modernize following the transition to democracy, in the wake of the 1973 student uprising. This period of democratization saw improvements in healthcare and family planning services, which contributed to a drastic reduction in Thailand's fertility rate, which more than halved between 1970 and 1985, and fell below replacement level (roughly 2.1 children per woman) in the early 1990s. In 2020, the average woman born in Thailand can expect to have just over 1.5 children over the course of her reproductive years.

In 1925, the total fertility rate in the region of present-day Bangladesh was approximately 6.7 children per woman, meaning that the average woman born in Bangladesh at this time would have just under seven children over the course of her reproductive years. This rate would fall slowly in the first half of the 20th century, due to declines in child mortality rates, however, fertility would begin to rise in Bangladesh following the region’s partition into East Pakistan in 1947.

After peaking at just under seven children in the early 1970s, fertility would begin to rapidly decline in Bangladesh, during a period of extensive displacement from the 1971 Bangladesh genocide and the resulting war for independence, which contributed to political instability, lack of infrastructure and widespread poverty for much of the remainder of the century. As a result, the Bangladeshi fertility rate would decline to just over four children per woman by the end of military rule in the early 1990s. While the rate of decline has slowed in the years following the restoration of democratic government to the country, fertility has continued to drop into the 21st century as modernization, women's education and access to contraception improves. As a result, in 2020, it is estimated that the average woman born in Bangladesh will have just over two children over the course of her reproductive years, which is roughly replacement level fertility.

Actual value and historical data chart for Pakistan Fertility Rate Total Births Per Woman

In 1865, the total fertility rate of Argentina was 6.8 children per woman, meaning that the average woman born in Argentina in this time could expect to have just under seven children over the course of her reproductive years. Fertility in Argentina would decline gradually in the second half of the 19 th century, as the country would see a rising influx of European immigration and the liberalization of several sectors of the country’s economy. As Argentina would enter the first half of the 20 th century, fertility declined more rapidly as the country became increasingly urbanized. As a result, fertility would fall from six children at the beginning of the century, to just over three children by the 1940s. However, fertility would largely level off at this rate for the next three decades, seeing little change under the military junta which took power in the years following the Second World War. While fertility would see a brief rise in the late 1970s, coinciding with the end of the military government, continuing modernization and increased access to contraception would drive fertility down once more, continuing steadily into the 21st century. As a result, in 2020, it is estimated that the average woman born in Argentina can expect to have just over two children over the course of her reproductive years, which is below replacement level.

The 2006-07 Sri Lanka Demographic and Health Survey (SLDHS) is the fourth in a series of DHS surveys to be held in Sri Lanka-the first three having been implemented in 1987, 1993, and 2000. Teams visited 2,106 sample points across Sri Lanka and collected data from a nationally representative sample of almost 20,000 households and over 14,700 women age 15-49. A nationally representative sample of 21,600 housing units was selected for the survey and 19,872 households were enumerated to give district level estimates (excluding Northern Province). Detailed information was collected from all ever-married women aged 15-49 years and about their children below five years at the time of the survey. Within the households interviewed, a total of 15,068 eligible women were identified, of whom 14,692 were successfully interviewed. The Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) carried out the 2006-07 SLDHS for the Health Sector Development Project (HSDP) of the Ministry of Healthcare and Nutrition, a project funded by the World Bank. The objective of the survey is to provide data needed to monitor and evaluate the impact of population, health, and nutrition programmes implemented by different government agencies. Additionally, it also aims to measure the impact of interventions made under the HSDP towards improving the quality and efficiency of health care services as a whole. All 25 districts of Sri Lanka were included at the design stage. The final sample has only 20 districts, however, after dropping the 5 districts of the Northern Province (Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, and Mullativu), due to the security situation there. OBJECTIVES The objective of this report is to publish the final findings of the 2006-07 SLDHS. This final report provides information mainly on background characteristics of respondents, fertility, reproductive health and maternal care, child health, nutrition, women's empowerment, and awareness of HIV/AIDS and prevention. It is expected that the content of this report will satisfy the urgent needs of users of this information. MAIN RESULTS FERTILITY Survey results indicate that there has been a slight upturn in the total fertility rate since the 2000 SLDHS. The total fertility rate for Sri Lanka is 2.3, meaning that, if current age-specific fertility rates were to remain unchanged in the future, a woman in Sri Lanka would have an average of 2.3 children by the end of her childbearing period. This is somewhat higher than the total fertility rate of 1.9 measured in the 2000 SLDHS. Fertility is only slightly lower in urban areas than in rural areas (2.2 and 2.3 children per woman, respectively); however, it is higher in the estate areas (2.5 children per woman). Interpretation of variations in fertility by administrative districts is limited by the small samples in some districts. Nevertheless, results indicate that Galle and Puttalam districts have fertility rates of 2.1 or below, which is at what is known as ?replacement level? fertility, i.e., the level that is necessary to maintain population size over time. Differences in fertility by level of women's education and a measure of relative wealth status are minimal. FAMILY PLANNING According to the survey findings, knowledge of any method of family planning is almost universal in Sri Lanka and there are almost no differences between ever-married and currently married women. Over 90 percent of currently married women have heard about pills, injectables, female sterilization, and the IUD. Eight out of ten respondents know about some traditional method of delaying or avoiding pregnancies. Although the proportion of currently married women who have heard of at least one method of family planning has been high for some time, knowledge of some specific methods has increased recently. Since 1993, knowledge of implants has increased five-fold-from about 10 percent in 1993 to over 50 percent in 2006-07. Awareness about pill, IUD, injectables, implants, and withdrawal has also increased. On the other hand, awareness of male sterilization has dropped by 14 percentage points. CHILD HEALTH The study of infant and child mortality is critical for assessment of population and health policies and programmes. Infant and child mortality rates are also regarded as indices reflecting the degree of poverty and deprivation of a population. Survey data show that for the most recent five-year period before the survey, the infant mortality rate is 15 deaths per 1,000 live births and under-five mortality is 21 deaths per 1,000 live births. Thus, one in every 48 Sri Lankan children dies before reaching age five. The neonatal mortality rate is 11 deaths per 1,000 live births and the postneonatal mortality rate is 5 deaths per 1,000 live births. The child mortality rate is 5 deaths per 1,000 children surviving to age one year. REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH The survey shows that virtually all mothers (99 percent) in Sri Lanka receive antenatal care from a health professional (doctor specialist, doctor, or midwife). The proportion receiving care from a skilled provider is remarkably uniform across all categories for age, residence, district, woman's education, and household wealth quintile. Even in the estate sector, antenatal care usage is at the same high level. Although doctors are the most frequently seen provider (96 percent), women also go to public health midwives often for prenatal care (44 percent). BREASTFEEDING AND NUTRITION Poor nutritional status is one of the most important health and welfare problems facing Sri Lanka today and particularly affects women and children. The survey data show that 17 percent of children under five are stunted or short for their age, while 15 percent of children under five are wasted or too thin for their height. Overall, 21 percent of children are underweight, which may reflect stunting, wasting, or both. As for women, at the national level, 16 percent of women are considered to be thin (with a body mass index < 18.5); however, only 6 percent of women are considered to be moderately or severely thin. Poor breastfeeding and infant feeding practices can have adverse consequences for the health and nutritional status of children. Fortunately, breastfeeding in Sri Lanka is universal and generally of fairly long duration; 97 percent of newborns are breastfed within one day after delivery and 76 percent of infants under 6 months are exclusively breastfed, lower than the recommended 100 percent exclusive breastfeeding for children under 6 months. The median duration of any breastfeeding is 33 months in Sri Lanka and the median duration of exclusive breastfeeding is 5 months. HIV/AIDS The HIV/AIDS pandemic is a serious health concern in the world today because of its high case fatality rate and the lack of a cure. Awareness of AIDS is almost universal among Sri Lankan adults, with 92 percent of ever-married women saying that they have heard about AIDS. Nevertheless, only 22 percent of ever-married women are classified as having ?comprehensive knowledge? about AIDS, i.e., knowing that consistent use of condoms and having just one faithful partner can reduce the chance of getting infected, knowing that a healthy-looking person can be infected, and knowing that AIDS cannot be transmitted by sharing food or by mosquito bites. Such a low level of knowledge about AIDS implies that a concerted effort is needed to address misconceptions about HIV transmission. Programs might be focused in the estate sector and especially in Batticaloa, Ampara, and Nuwara Eliya districts where comprehensive knowledge is lowest. Moreover, a composite indicator on stigma towards HIV-infected people shows that only 8 percent of ever-married women expressed accepting attitudes toward persons living with HIV/AIDS. Overall, only about one- half of ever-married women age 15-49 years know where to get an HIV test. WOMEN'S EMPOWERMENT AND DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH OUTCOMES The 2006-07 SLDHS collected data on women's empowerment, their participation in decisionmaking, and attitudes towards wife beating. Survey results show that more than 90 percent of currently married women, either alone or jointly with their husband, make decisions on how their income is used. However, husbands' control over women's earnings is higher among women with no education (15 percent) than among women with higher education (4 percent). In Sri Lanka, the husband is usually the main source of household income; two-thirds of women earn less than their husband. Although the majority of women earn less than their husband, almost half have autonomy in decisions about how to spend their earnings. The survey also collected information on who decides how the husband's cash earnings are spent. The majority of couples (60 percent) make joint decisions on how the husband's cash income is used. More than 1 in 5 women (23 percent) reported that they decide how their husband's earnings are used; another 16 percent of the women reported that their husband mainly decides how his earnings are spent.

Content

The United States Census Bureau’s International Dataset provides estimates of country populations since 1950 and projections through 2050. Specifically, the data set includes midyear population figures broken down by age and gender assignment at birth. Additionally, they provide time-series data for attributes including fertility rates, birth rates, death rates, and migration rates.

The full documentation is available here. For basic field details, please see the data dictionary.

Note: The U.S. Census Bureau provides estimates and projections for countries and areas that are recognized by the U.S. Department of State that have a population of at least 5,000.

Acknowledgements

This dataset was created by the United States Census Bureau.

Inspiration

Which countries have made the largest improvements in life expectancy? Based on current trends, how long will it take each country to catch up to today’s best performers?

Use this dataset with BigQuery

You can use Kernels to analyze, share, and discuss this data on Kaggle, but if you’re looking for real-time updates and bigger data, check out the data on BigQuery, too: https://cloud.google.com/bigquery/public-data/international-census.

Abstract

Moldova's first Demographic and Health Survey (2005 MDHS) is a nationally representative sample survey of 7,440 women age 15-49 and 2,508 men age 15-59 selected from 400 sample points (clusters) throughout Moldova (excluding the Transnistria region). It is designed to provide data to monitor the population and health situation in Moldova; it includes several indicators which follow up on those from the 1997 Moldova Reproductive Health Survey (1997 MRHS) and the 2000 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (2000 MICS). The 2005 MDHS used a two-stage sample based on the 2004 Population and Housing Census and was designed to produce separate estimates for key indicators for each of the major regions in Moldova, including the North, Center, and South regions and Chisinau Municipality. Unlike the 1997 MRHS and the 2000 MICS surveys, the 2005 MDHS did not cover the region of Transnistria. Data collection took place over a two-month period, from June 13 to August 18, 2005.

The survey obtained detailed information on fertility levels, abortion levels, marriage, sexual activity, fertility preferences, awareness and use of family planning methods, breastfeeding practices, nutritional status of women and young children, childhood mortality, maternal and child health, adult health, and awareness and behavior regarding HIV infection and other sexually transmitted diseases. Hemoglobin testing was conducted on women and children to detect the presence of anemia. Additional features of the 2005 MDHS include the collection of information on international emigration, language preference for reading printed media, and domestic violence. The 2005 MDHS was carried out by the National Scientific and Applied Center for Preventive Medicine, hereafter called the National Center for Preventive Medicine (NCPM), of the Ministry of Health and Social Protection. ORC Macro provided technical assistance for the MDHS through the USAID-funded MEASURE DHS project. Local costs of the survey were also supported by USAID, with additional funds from the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), and in-kind contributions from the NCPM.

MAIN RESULTS

CHARACTERISTICS OF RESPONDENTS

Ethnicity and Religion. Most women and men in Moldova are of Moldovan ethnicity (77 percent and 76 percent, respectively), followed by Ukrainian (8-9 percent of women and men), Russian (6 percent of women and men), and Gagauzan (4-5 percent of women and men). Romanian and Bulgarian ethnicities account for 2 to 3 percent of women and men. The overwhelming majority of Moldovans, about 95 percent, report Orthodox Christianity as their religion.

Residence and Age. The majority of respondents, about 58 percent, live in rural areas. For both sexes, there are proportionally more respondents in age groups 15-19 and 45-49 (and also 45-54 for men), whereas the proportion of respondents in age groups 25-44 is relatively lower. This U-shaped age distribution reflects the aging baby boom cohort following World War II (the youngest of the baby boomers are now in their mid-40s), and their children who are now mostly in their teens and 20s. The smaller proportion of men and women in the middle age groups reflects the smaller cohorts following the baby boom generation and those preceding the generation of baby boomers' children. To some degree, it also reflects the disproportionately higher emigration of the working-age population.

Education. Women and men in Moldova are universally well educated, with virtually 100 percent having at least some secondary or higher education; 79 percent of women and 83 percent of men have only a secondary or secondary special education, and the remainder pursues a higher education. More women (21 percent) than men (16 percent) pursue higher education.

Language Preference. Among women, preferences for language of reading material are about equal for Moldovan (37 percent) and Russian (35 percent) languages. Among men, preference for Russian (39 percent) is higher than for Moldovan (25 percent). A substantial percentage of women and men prefer Moldovan and Russian equally (27 percent of women and 32 percent of men).

Living Conditions. Access to electricity is almost universal for households in Moldova. Ninety percent of the population has access to safe drinking water, with 86 percent in rural areas and 96 percent in urban areas. Seventy-seven percent of households in Moldova have adequate means of sanitary disposal, with 91 percent of households in urban areas and only 67 percent in rural areas.

Children's Living Arrangements. Compared with other countries in the region, Moldova has the highest proportion of children who do not live with their mother and/or father. Only about two-thirds (69 percent) of children under age 15 live with both parents. Fifteen percent live with just their mother although their father is alive, 5 percent live with just their father although their mother is alive, and 7 percent live with neither parent although they are both alive. Compared with living arrangements of children in 2000, the situation appears to have worsened.

FERTILITY

Fertility Levels and Trends. The total fertility rate (TFR) in Moldova is 1.7 births. This means that, on average, a woman in Moldova will give birth to 1.7 children by the end of her reproductive period. Overall, fertility rates have declined since independence in 1991. However, data indicate that fertility rates may have increased in recent years. For example, women of childbearing age have given birth to, on average, 1.4 children at the end of their childbearing years. This is slightly less than the total fertility rate (1.7), with the difference indicating that fertility in the past three years is slightly higher than the accumulation of births over the past 30 years.

Fertility Differentials. The TFR for rural areas (1.8 births) is higher than that for urban areas (1.5 births). Results show that this urban-rural difference in childbearing rates can be attributed almost exclusively to younger age groups.

CONTRACEPTION

Knowledge of Contraception. Knowledge of family planning is nearly universal, with 99 percent of all women age 15-49 knowing at least one modern method of family planning. Among all women, the male condom, IUD, pills, and withdrawal are the most widely known methods of family planning, with over 80 percent of all women saying they have heard of these methods. Female sterilization is known by two-thirds of women, while periodic abstinence (rhythm method) is recognized by almost six in ten women. Just over half of women have heard of the lactational amenorrhea method (LAM), while 40-50 percent of all women have heard of injectables, male sterilization, and foam/jelly. The least widely known methods are emergency contraception, diaphragm, and implants.

Use of Contraception. Sixty-eight percent of currently married women are using a family planning method to delay or stop childbearing. Most are using a modern method (44 percent of married women), while 24 percent use a traditional method of contraception. The IUD is the most widely used of the modern methods, being used by 25 percent of married women. The next most widely used method is withdrawal, used by 20 percent of married women. Male condoms are used by about 7 percent of women, especially younger women. Five percent of married women have been sterilized and 4 percent each are using the pill and periodic abstinence (rhythm method). The results show that Moldovan women are adopting family planning at lower parities (i.e., when they have fewer children) than in the past. Among younger women (age 20-24), almost half (49 percent) used contraception before having any children, compared with only 12 percent of women age 45-49.

MATERNAL HEALTH

Antenatal Care and Delivery Care. Among women with a birth in the five years preceding the survey, almost all reported seeing a health professional at least once for antenatal care during their last pregnancy; nine in ten reported 4 or more antenatal care visits. Seven in ten women had their first antenatal care visit in the first trimester. In addition, virtually all births were delivered by a health professional, in a health facility. Results also show that the vast majority of women have timely checkups after delivering; 89 percent of all women received a medical checkup within two days of the birth, and another 6 percent within six weeks.

CHILD HEALTH

Childhood Mortality. The infant mortality rate for the 5-year period preceding the survey is 13 deaths per 1,000 live births, meaning that about 1 in 76 infants dies before the first birthday. The under-five mortality rate is almost the same with 14 deaths per 1,000 births. The near parity of these rates indicates that most all early childhood deaths take place during the first year of life. Comparison with official estimates of IMRs suggests that this rate has been improving over the past decade.

NUTRITION

Breastfeeding Practices. Breastfeeding is nearly universal in Moldova: 97 percent of children are breastfed. However the duration of breast-feeding is not long, exclusive breastfeeding is not widely practiced, and bottle-feeding is not uncommon. In terms of the duration of breastfeeding, data show that by age 12-15 months, well over half of children (59 percent) are no longer being breastfed. By age 20-23 months, almost all children have been weaned.

Exclusive breastfeeding is not widely practiced and supplementary feeding begins early: 57 percent of breastfed children less than 4 months are exclusively breastfed, and 46 percent under six months are exclusively breastfeed. The remaining breastfed children also consume plain water, water-based liquids or juice, other milk in addition to breast milk, and complimentary foods. Bottle-feeding is fairly widespread in Moldova;

In 1925, the total fertility rate of Iran was just over seven children per woman, meaning that the average woman in Iran could expect to have seven children over the course of their reproductive years. The fertility rate would see little change from this figure until the late 1960s, when modernization and significant decreases in child mortality would lead the fertility rate to fall to just over 6.2 in 1975. However, fertility would begin to rise again in the 1980s, as the modernization policies of the Shah would be replaced by Islamic economic and social platforms with the 1979 Islamic Revolution in the country. The total fertility rate in the country would peak at just over 6.5 children per woman in 1985, in response to strong encouragement by the Iranian government promoting larger families to improve Iran’s manpower advantage over Iraq in the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran War. Following the war’s end with a UN-brokered ceasefire in 1988, fertility would fall sharply in the country, falling to 2.4 by the turn of the century, and falling below replacement-level in 2005. However, after bottoming out at 1.82 in 2010, fertility has risen somewhat in recent years, as the Iranian government has rolled out a series of economic incentives aimed at increasing fertility in the country. As a result, in 2020, the total fertility rate in Iran is estimated to have risen slightly, to 2.15 children per woman, above replacement-level.

Abstract (en): The ethnographic fieldwork portion of the project - interviews with women of reproductive age, and when available their partners and mothers - was initiated and completed in 2006. For each of four Italian cities (Padua, Bologna, Cagliari, and Naples) studied ethnographically by trained anthropologists, both a working-class and a middle-class neighborhood were identified. These interviews (349 in number) have been transcribed without identifiers. All interviews have been coded and assigned 'attributes' (or nominative variables, such as gender, civil/religious status of marriage, etc.) using the qualitative data analysis software (NVIVO), and these reside in secure electronic project folders. This large body of qualitative interview data is now complete and ready for use across the international collaborative units. Preliminary research reveals the particular significance of family ties in Italy, the fundamental role played by gender systems, and the specific cultural, socio-economic, and politic contexts in which fertility behavior and parenting are embedded. Please see the study website for more information. The surprisingly deep drop in Italian birth rates to among the lowest in the world (total fertility rate of 1.3 or below) has dramatically challenged existing social science theory by appearing to contradict population experts' predictions of where such very low "below replacement" fertility would emerge. This interdisciplinary research project, known as "ELFI" (Explaining Low Fertility in Italy), has made considerable inroads into understanding the puzzle of "lowest-low" Italian fertility, reevaluating theories of reproduction and human behavior more generally. Through the use of innovative methodologies, an international team of collaborators from anthropology, sociology, and demography has produced key findings using both statistical, quantitative methods and extensive ethnographic, qualitative methods. Four Italian cities were studied ethnographically by trained anthropologists. In each, both a working-class and a middle-class neighborhood were identified, and participants were selected. Women of reproductive age in four Italian cities (Padua, Bologna, Cagliari, and Naples). Smallest Geographic Unit: city Anthropologists selected 50 women aged 23-45 in each of four Italian cities. Half of these women were of younger reproductive ages (23-32) and half from older ages (33-45). In addition, in each cohort, half of the women were from a working-class neighborhood and half from a middle-class neighborhood, of varying levels of education and parity. Interviews were also conducted (when possible) with the woman's mother and with the woman's husband or cohabiting partner. The interviewees were selected through personal contacts identified through an indirect snowballing procedure with multiple entries (independently selected initial contacts) in order to avoid a clustered sample. The final sample of interviews consists of 233 women (aged 23-45), 49 mothers, and 67 partners, for a total of 349 interviews. The indirect snowball sampling procedure allowed us to stratify the sample by age, parity, and marital status of the woman in order to maximize variation in socio-demographic characteristics. To facilitate analysis, each of the 349 interviews was recorded, transcribed, and examined using the computer program Nvivo8. Funding insitution(s): United States Department of Health and Human Services. National Institutes of Health. Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01 HD048715). National Science Foundation (BCS 0418443). face-to-face interviewAccording to the principal investigator, direct identifiers have been removed. But the transcripts are in Italian, so we were not able to determine the potential for indirect identifiers. As such, the data is restricted.

In 1925, the total fertility rate in Iraq was approximately 7.1 children per woman, meaning that the average woman born in Iraq at this time could expect to have seven children over the course of her reproductive years. This number increased to eight babies per woman by the 1950s, however, modernization and a decline in child mortality led to many families opting to have fewer children from the fifties onwards. This decline was interrupted by a temporary spike throughout the 1960s, which some studies attribute to disruptions in family planning services during the First Iraqi-Kurdish War. From the 1970s onwards, Iraq's fertility rate would continue its decline, falling to just over five children per woman by 2000. While Iraq’s fertility rate remains one of the highest in the region, the rate has continued to fall in the 21st century, and in 2020, the average woman born in Iraq can expect to have approximately 3.7 children over the course of her reproductive years.

In 1900, the present-day region of Yemen had a total fertility rate of approximately 6.9 children per woman, meaning that women born in Yemen at this time could expect to have approximately seven children over the course of their reproductive years. Contrary to global trends, Yemeni fertility increased throughout most of the 20th century, peaking at almost nine births per woman in the 1980s; between 1977 and 1994, Yemen had the highest fertility rate in the world, and no other country is ever estimated to have had a fertility rate exceeding 8.5 births per woman. Various reasons have been cited for this increase, primarily child marriage, lack of literacy or educational opportunities for women, and the wars within and between the partitioned Yemeni states in the 1970s and 1980s.

Following Yemen’s unification in the 1990s, the total fertility rate began to fall significantly. Despite ongoing violence and political turmoil, advancements in healthcare and humanitarian aid helped Yemen's fertility rate drop below seven births per woman at the end of the 20th century, and below four births per woman in the year 2020. The decline has slowed in the past five years, however, due to the Yemen Civil War which began in 2014. Yemen is currently experiencing what is arguably the most severe humanitarian crisis in the world, and its healthcare system has been almost decimated through war, famine and the lack of water or sanitation; it remains to be seen how these estimates may change in the coming years, given the long-term impact of the civil war and the humanitarian crisis.

In recent years, in order to cope with the increasing trend of population aging, the Chinese government has constantly adjusted the family planning policy, continuously tracked and evaluated the actual effect of the birth policy adjustment, and the prediction and analysis of future births have important theoretical value and practical significance.The adjustment of the birth policy is of great significance for achieving long-term balanced population development. This paper assesses the net effect of fertility policy adjustments on Chinas birth and fertility rates by constructing a DID model using panel data collected from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities over the period 2005-2021. The study shows that the fertility policy adjustment does not significantly increase the birth and fertility rates in China, and the findings are confirmed by robustness tests using various methods. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy is more pronounced in the central region. Further, a mechanistic and causal analysis reveals that fertility policy changes did not significantly increase peoples willingness to have children, nor did they affect many other factors that influence households fertility decisions. Finally, a GM (1, 1) grey forecast model is used to forecast the births in each province and municipality in the next five years, and it is concluded that the births in China will continue to show a declining trend. This paper argues that a supportive policy system for fertility should be established, public childcare and elderly care services should be optimised, and a favourable fertility climate and conditions should be created in order to improve fertility levels in China.

In recent years, in order to cope with the increasing trend of population aging, the Chinese government has constantly adjusted the family planning policy, continuously tracked and evaluated the actual effect of the birth policy adjustment, and the prediction and analysis of future births have important theoretical value and practical significance.The adjustment of the birth policy is of great significance for achieving long-term balanced population development. This paper assesses the net effect of fertility policy adjustments on Chinas birth and fertility rates by constructing a DID model using panel data collected from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities over the period 2005-2021. The study shows that the fertility policy adjustment does not significantly increase the birth and fertility rates in China, and the findings are confirmed by robustness tests using various methods. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy is more pronounced in the central region. Further, a mechanistic and causal analysis reveals that fertility policy changes did not significantly increase peoples willingness to have children, nor did they affect many other factors that influence households fertility decisions. Finally, a GM (1, 1) grey forecast model is used to forecast the births in each province and municipality in the next five years, and it is concluded that the births in China will continue to show a declining trend. This paper argues that a supportive policy system for fertility should be established, public childcare and elderly care services should be optimised, and a favourable fertility climate and conditions should be created in order to improve fertility levels in China.

In 1840, the total fertility rate of Chile was estimated to be six children per woman, meaning that women born in Chile in that year could expect to have six children over the course of their reproductive years. Fertility would fluctuate greatly in the second half of the 19th century, as intermittent wars, epidemics, and economic crises would see fertility shift dramatically from year to year. However, as the situation in Chile would begin to stabilize, fertility declined more steadily from the 20th century onward, albeit after returning to just over six children per woman.

Apart from a brief jump in the 1950s, during the global baby boom that followed the Second World War, Chile's total fertility rate has fallen consistently. The rate of decline was fastest between the 1960s and 1990s, as a series of social and economic reforms would see women’s education increase, as well as major declines in child mortality from a series of welfare and healthcare programs. Fertility fell below replacement level in the early 2000s, and the rate is estimated to be below 1.7 births per woman in 2020.

Abstract

The Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) was conducted between December 1988 and May 1989 to collect data regarding fertility, family planning and maternal and child health. The survey covered 7,150 women aged 15-49 and a subsample of 1,116 husbands of these women, selected from a sample covering 95 percent of the population. The purpose of the survey was to provide planners and policymakers with data useful in making informed programme decisions.

OBJECTIVES

On March 1, 1988, 'on behalf of the Government of Kenya, the National Council for Population and Development (NCPD) signed an agreement with the Institute for Resource Development (IRD) to carry out the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS).

The KDHS is intended to serve as a source of population and health data for policymakers and for the research community. In general, the objectives of the KDHS are to: assess the overall demographic situation in Kenya, assist in the evaluation of the population and health programmes in Kenya, advance survey methodology, and assist the NCPD strengthen and improve its technical skills to conduct demographic and health surveys.

The KDHS was specifically designed to: - provide data on the family planning and fertility behaviour of the Kcnyan population to enable the NCPD to evaluate and enhance the National Family Planning Programme, - measure changes in fertility and contraceptive prevalence and at the same time study the factors which affect these changes, such as marriage patterns, urban/rural residence, availability of contraception, breastfeeding habits and other socioeconomic factors, and - examine the basic indicators of maternal and child health in Kenya.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

The survey data can also be used to evaluate Kenya's efforts to reduce fertility and the picture that emerges shows significant strides have been made toward this goal. KDHS data provide the first evidence of a major decline in fertility. If young women continue to have children at current rates, they will have an average of 6.7 births in their lifetime. This is down considerably from the average of 7.5 births for women now at the end of their childbearing years. The fertility rate in 1984 was estimated at 7.7 births per woman.

A major cause of the decline in fertility is increased use of family pIanning. Twenty-seven percent of married women in Kenya are currcntly using a contraceptive method, compared to 17 percent in 1984. Although periodic abstinence continues to he the most common method (8 percent), of interest to programme planners is the fact that two-thirds of marricd women using contraception have chosen a modern method--either the pill (5 percent) or female sterilisation (5 percent). Contraccptive use varies by province, with those closest to Nairobi having the highest levels. Further evidence of the success in promoting family planning is the fact that more than 90 percent of married women know at least one modern method of contraception (and where to obtain it), and 45 percent have used a contraceptive method at some time in their life.

The survey indicates a high level of knowledge, use and approval of family planning by husbands of interviewed women. Ninety-three percent of husbands know a modern method of family planning. Sixty-five percent of husbands have used a method at some time and almost 49 percent are currently using a method, half of which are modern methods. Husbands in Kenya are strongly supportive of family planning. Ninety-one percent of those surveyed approve of family planning use by couples, compared to 88 percent of married women.

If couples are able to realise their childbearing preferences, fertility may continue to decline in the future. One half of married women say that they want no more children; another 26 percent want to wait at least two years before having another child. Husbands report similar views on limiting births--one-half say they want no more children. The desire to limit childbearing appears to be greater in Kenya than in other subSaharan countries. In Botswana and Zimbabwe, for example, only 33 percent of married women want no more children. Another indicator of possible future decline in fertility in Kenya is the decrease in ideal family size. According to the KDHS, the mean ideal family size declined from 5.8 in 1984 to 4.4 in 1989.

The KDHS indicates that in the area of health, government programmes have been effective in providing health services for womcn and children. Eight in ten births benefit from ante-natal care from a doctor, nurse, or midwife and one-half of births are assisted at delivery by a doctor, nurse, or midwife. At least 44 percent of children 12-23 months of age are fully immunised against the major childhood diseases, Almost all children benefit from an extended period of breastfeeding. The average duration of breastfeeding is 19 months and the practice does not appear to be waning among either younger women or urban women. Another encouraging piece of information is the high level of ORT (oral rehydration therapy) use for treating childhood diarrhoea. Among children under five reported to have had an episode of diarrhoea in the two weeks before the survey, half were treated with a homemade solution and almost one-quarter were given a solution prepared from commercially prepared packets.

The survey indicates several areas where there is room for improvement. Although young women are marrying later, many are still having births at young ages. More than 20 percent of teen-age girls have had at least one child and 7 percent were pregnant at the time of the survey. There is also evidence of an unmet need for family planning services. Of the births occurring in the 12 months before the survey, over half were either mistimed or unwanted; one fifth occurred less than 24 months after a previous birth.

Geographic coverage

The 1989 KDHS sample is national in scope, with the exclusion of all three districts in North Eastern Province and four other northern districts (Samburu and Turkana in Rift Valley Province and Isiolo and 4 Marsabit in Eastern Province). Together the excluded areas account for less than 4 percent of Kenya's population.

Analysis unit

• Household
• Women age 15-49
• Men age not specified

Universe

The population covered by the 1989 KDHS is defined as the universe of all women age 15-49 in Kenya and all husband living in the household.

Kind of data

Sample survey data

Sampling procedure

The sample for the KDHS is based on the National Sample Survey and Ewduation Programme (NASSEP) master sample maintained by the CBS. The KDHS sample is national in coverage, with the exclusion of North Eastern Province and four northern districts which together account for only about five percent of Kenya's population. The KDHS sample was designed to produce completed interviews with 7,500 women aged 15-49 and with a subsample of 1,000 husbands of these women.

The NASSEP master sample is a two-stage design, stratified by urban-rural residence, and within the rural stratum, by individual district. In the first stage, 1979 census enumeration areas (EAs) were selected with probability proportional to size. The selected EAs were segmented into the expected number of standard-sized clusters, one of which was selected at random to form the NASSEP cluster. The selected clusters were then mapped and listed by CBS field staff. In rural areas, household listings made betwecn 1984 and 1985 were used to select the KDHS households, while KDHS pretest staff were used to relist households in the selected urban clusters.

Despite the emphasis on obtaining district-level data for phoning purposes, it was decided that reliable estimates could not be produced from the KDHS for all 32 districts in NASSEP, unless the sample were expanded to an unmanageable size. However, it was felt that reliable estimates of certain variables could be produced lbr the rural areas in the 13 districts that have been initially targeted by the NCPD: Kilifi, Machakos, Meru, Nyeri, Murang'a, Kirinyaga, Kericho, Uasin Gishu, South Nyanza, Kisii, Siaya, Kakamega, and Bungoma. Thus, all 24 rural clusters in the NASSEP were selected for inclusion in the KDHS sample in these 13 districts. About 450 rural households were selected in each of these districts, just over 1000 rural households in other districts, and about 3000 households in urban areas, for a total of almost 10,000 households. Sample weights were used to compensate for the unequal probability of selection between strata, and weighted figures are used throughout the remainder of this report.

Mode of data collection

Face-to-face

Research instrument

The KDHS utilised three questionnaires: a household questionnaire, a woman's questionnaire, and a husband's questionnaire. The first two were based on the DHS Programme's Model "B" Questionnaire that was designed for low contraceptive prevalence countries, while the husband's questionnaire was based on similar questionnaires used in the DHS surveys in Ghana and Burundi. A two-day seminar was held in Nyeri in November 1987 to develop the questionnaire design. Participants included representatives from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the Population Studies Research Institute at the University of Nairobi, the Community Health Department of Kenyatta Hospital, and USAID. The decision to include a survey of husbands was based on the recommendation of the seminar participants. The questionnaires were subsequently translated into eight local languages (Kalenjin, Kamba, Kikuyu, Kisii, Luhya, Luo, Meru and Mijikenda), in addition to Kiswahili.

Cleaning operations

Data