In G20 countries, the share of the population that earned at least the equivalent of the highest 10 percent of global income earners as of 2022 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms varies from over two thirds in Australia to only *** percent in Indonesia. The United States recorded the second-highest upper-class share of the G20 countries. However, looking at for instance China, approximately ** percent of the population counts as middle class or above, whereas just ***** percent counts as upper class or higher.

Australia Biohacking Market growth is driven by increasing internet penetration, wellness trends, and growing middle-class income levels.

The Milk Powder Manufacturing industry has faced challenging conditions in recent years. Domestic milk production has declined, reducing industry output and lifting milk prices. Unfavourable weather conditions, like flooding in 2022-23, and mandatory minimum farmgate milk price disclosure under the Dairy Industry Code of Conduct 2020 have further elevated prices. Supply-side pressures have driven manufacturers to sell almost all products overseas, with exports contributing significantly to revenue. Free trade agreements with countries like Indonesia and China have provided attractive tariffs, boosting foreign demand. Asia’s rising middle class has driven consumers to seek high-quality milk powder from premium dairy-producing countries, favouring Australian products like infant formula and adult milk powder. Although pandemic-induced stockpiling in China temporarily boosted exports, a stronger Australian dollar, along with sluggish economic conditions and low household income in China, has recently diminished export sales. Overall, industry revenue is expected to have fallen at an annualised 7.5% over the five years through 2024-25, to $768.2 million. This includes an anticipated 5.6% plunge in 2024-25 due to falling prices and production across product segments. The industry is in decline, set to grow slower than the economy over the 10 years through 2029-30. Major companies have optimised their milk powder production, slightly mitigating high operating costs. For example, Saputo shut down a production line, and Fonterra plans to sell multiple brands. However, meagre profitability has squeezed out many small-scale manufacturers, causing enterprise and establishment numbers to drop. Average wages have risen due to higher payments to skilled workers over the past few years. Yet manufacturers’ adoption of automated machinery has replaced manual workers, diminishing the industry’s employment and total wage costs. Revenue is projected to fall marginally over the coming years. The milk pool is forecast to shrink, constraining the output available to local and overseas markets. Growing New Zealand counterparts are set to capture unmet demand, shaking Australian manufacturers’ market position. The industry’s reputation will retain loyal customers, but a lack of innovation and value-added products is poised to fuel a marginal revenue decline. Overall, revenue is forecast to decrease at an annualised 0.9% over the five years through 2029-30, to $732.9 million.

Overview This report contains ABARES' latest forecasts for 2016-17 for Australia's major agricultural commodities. In addition, this publication includes articles on the EU dairy industry and Australia's trade in fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.1 per cent to around $58.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 6.3 per cent increase to $57.8 billion in 2015-16. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 12 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to stay around $29.8 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 10.9 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 2.5 per cent to $28.6 billion in 2016-17, after an estimated increase of 1.8 per cent in 2015-16. This mainly reflects forecast increases in the gross value of sugar, cotton and horticultural production offsetting the forecast decreases in the gross value of grain production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be $43.0 billion in 2016-17, 2.5 per cent lower than $44.1 billion in 2015-16. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wool (up 6 per cent), sugar (14 per cent), lamb (1 per cent), cotton (21 per cent), canola (12 per cent) and live feeder/slaughter cattle (3 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2016-17 are expected to be more than offset by forecast falls in export earnings for beef and veal (down 9 per cent), wheat (7 per cent), dairy products (6 per cent), barley (2 per cent), chickpeas (43 per cent) and mutton (18 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to stay around $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 16.7 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16 and 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2016-17, largely unchanged from the estimated average for 2015-16.

Articles on agricultural issues

The EU dairy industry
• The EU dairy industry is supported by domestic and trade policies implemented through the Common Agricultural Policy. • Without a change to the existing trade barriers for Australian dairy exports and stronger European demand for imported dairy products generally, Australian exports to that market are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. Trade in fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables
• Australia is a significant net exporter of fresh fruit, fresh vegetables and tree nuts. • Changing diets in Asia's middle class, the depreciation of the Australian dollar and improved market access following the negotiation of several FTAs have supported exports of Australian fresh horticultural produce.