This research project, carried out in collaboration with the USAID’s Feed the Future Program, explored 1) how digital financial services (DFS) could help address the unmet financial needs of smallholder farmers (SHFs); 2) the conditions under which SHFs adopt DFS to meet these needs; and 3) how different stakeholders perceive farmer needs, DFS availability, and incentives and barriers to DFS Guatemala. This report is made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of MIT D-Lab.

Cryptocurrency payments are forecast to grow at a CAGR of nearly 17 percent between 2023 and 2030, although the market is relatively small. The forecast is according to a market estimate made in early 2023, based on various conditions and sources available at that time. It should be noted, however, that cryptocurrency used for payments is predicted to be a far smaller market than the predicted transaction value of CBDC, or the forecast market size of instant payments. Indeed, research from early 2023 across 40 countries suggested that the market share of cryptocurrency in e-commerce transaction was "less than one percent" in all survey countries, with predictions being this would not change in the future.

Abstract

The fourth edition of the Global Findex offers a lens into how people accessed and used financial services during the COVID-19 pandemic, when mobility restrictions and health policies drove increased demand for digital services of all kinds.

The Global Findex is the world's most comprehensive database on financial inclusion. It is also the only global demand-side data source allowing for global and regional cross-country analysis to provide a rigorous and multidimensional picture of how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage financial risks. Global Findex 2021 data were collected from national representative surveys of about 128,000 adults in more than 120 economies. The latest edition follows the 2011, 2014, and 2017 editions, and it includes a number of new series measuring financial health and resilience and contains more granular data on digital payment adoption, including merchant and government payments.

The Global Findex is an indispensable resource for financial service practitioners, policy makers, researchers, and development professionals.

Geographic coverage

National coverage

Analysis unit

Individual

Kind of data

Observation data/ratings [obs]

Sampling procedure

In most developing economies, Global Findex data have traditionally been collected through face-to-face interviews. Surveys are conducted face-to-face in economies where telephone coverage represents less than 80 percent of the population or where in-person surveying is the customary methodology. However, because of ongoing COVID-19 related mobility restrictions, face-to-face interviewing was not possible in some of these economies in 2021. Phone-based surveys were therefore conducted in 67 economies that had been surveyed face-to-face in 2017. These 67 economies were selected for inclusion based on population size, phone penetration rate, COVID-19 infection rates, and the feasibility of executing phone-based methods where Gallup would otherwise conduct face-to-face data collection, while complying with all government-issued guidance throughout the interviewing process. Gallup takes both mobile phone and landline ownership into consideration. According to Gallup World Poll 2019 data, when face-to-face surveys were last carried out in these economies, at least 80 percent of adults in almost all of them reported mobile phone ownership. All samples are probability-based and nationally representative of the resident adult population. Phone surveys were not a viable option in 17 economies that had been part of previous Global Findex surveys, however, because of low mobile phone ownership and surveying restrictions. Data for these economies will be collected in 2022 and released in 2023.

In economies where face-to-face surveys are conducted, the first stage of sampling is the identification of primary sampling units. These units are stratified by population size, geography, or both, and clustering is achieved through one or more stages of sampling. Where population information is available, sample selection is based on probabilities proportional to population size; otherwise, simple random sampling is used. Random route procedures are used to select sampled households. Unless an outright refusal occurs, interviewers make up to three attempts to survey the sampled household. To increase the probability of contact and completion, attempts are made at different times of the day and, where possible, on different days. If an interview cannot be obtained at the initial sampled household, a simple substitution method is used. Respondents are randomly selected within the selected households. Each eligible household member is listed, and the hand-held survey device randomly selects the household member to be interviewed. For paper surveys, the Kish grid method is used to select the respondent. In economies where cultural restrictions dictate gender matching, respondents are randomly selected from among all eligible adults of the interviewer's gender.

In traditionally phone-based economies, respondent selection follows the same procedure as in previous years, using random digit dialing or a nationally representative list of phone numbers. In most economies where mobile phone and landline penetration is high, a dual sampling frame is used.

The same respondent selection procedure is applied to the new phone-based economies. Dual frame (landline and mobile phone) random digital dialing is used where landline presence and use are 20 percent or higher based on historical Gallup estimates. Mobile phone random digital dialing is used in economies with limited to no landline presence (less than 20 percent).

For landline respondents in economies where mobile phone or landline penetration is 80 percent or higher, random selection of respondents is achieved by using either the latest birthday or household enumeration method. For mobile phone respondents in these economies or in economies where mobile phone or landline penetration is less than 80 percent, no further selection is performed. At least three attempts are made to reach a person in each household, spread over different days and times of day.

Sample size for United States is 1007.

Mode of data collection

Landline and mobile telephone

Research instrument

Questionnaires are available on the website.

Sampling error estimates

Estimates of standard errors (which account for sampling error) vary by country and indicator. For country-specific margins of error, please refer to the Methodology section and corresponding table in Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, Leora Klapper, Dorothe Singer, Saniya Ansar. 2022. The Global Findex Database 2021: Financial Inclusion, Digital Payments, and Resilience in the Age of COVID-19. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Analysis of ‘UPI apps Transactions in 2021’ provided by Analyst-2 (analyst-2.ai), based on source dataset retrieved from https://www.kaggle.com/ramjasmaurya/upi-apps-transactions-in-2021 on 28 January 2022.

--- Dataset description provided by original source is as follows ---

https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*94MvdhxeCQHoD7A4K1vlWg.png">

Unified Payments Interface (UPI) is an instant real-time payment system developed by National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) facilitating inter-bank peer-to-peer (P2P) and person-to-merchant (P2M) transactions.NPCI is umbrella organisation for all digital payments. The interface is regulated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and works by instantly transferring funds between two bank accounts on a mobile platform. As of November 2021, there are 274 banks available on UPI with a monthly volume of 4.18 billion transactions and a value of ₹7.1 trillion (US$94 billion) UPI witnessed 68 billion transactions till November 2021. The mobile-only payment system helped transact a total of ₹34.95 lakh crore (US$460 billion) during the 67 months of operation starting from 2016. As of May 2021, the platform has 150 million monthly active users in India with plans to achieve 500 million by 2025. IIT Madras is also working to integrate voice command feature that can support English and Indian vernacular language in future. The proportion of UPI transactions in total volume of digital transactions grew from 23% in 2018-19 to 55% in 2020-21 with an average value of ₹1,849 per transaction

--- Original source retains full ownership of the source dataset ---

Context

There is a lack of public available datasets on financial services and specially in the emerging mobile money transactions domain. Financial datasets are important to many researchers and in particular to us performing research in the domain of fraud detection. Part of the problem is the intrinsically private nature of financial transactions, that leads to no publicly available datasets.

We present a synthetic dataset generated using the simulator called PaySim as an approach to such a problem. PaySim uses aggregated data from the private dataset to generate a synthetic dataset that resembles the normal operation of transactions and injects malicious behaviour to later evaluate the performance of fraud detection methods.

Content

PaySim simulates mobile money transactions based on a sample of real transactions extracted from one month of financial logs from a mobile money service implemented in an African country. The original logs were provided by a multinational company, who is the provider of the mobile financial service which is currently running in more than 14 countries all around the world.

This synthetic dataset is scaled down 1/4 of the original dataset and it is created just for Kaggle.

Headers

This is a sample of 1 row with headers explanation:

1,PAYMENT,1060.31,C429214117,1089.0,28.69,M1591654462,0.0,0.0,0,0

step - maps a unit of time in the real world. In this case 1 step is 1 hour of time. Total steps 744 (30 days simulation).

type - CASH-IN, CASH-OUT, DEBIT, PAYMENT and TRANSFER.

amount - amount of the transaction in local currency.

nameOrig - customer who started the transaction

oldbalanceOrg - initial balance before the transaction

newbalanceOrig - new balance after the transaction

nameDest - customer who is the recipient of the transaction

oldbalanceDest - initial balance recipient before the transaction. Note that there is not information for customers that start with M (Merchants).

newbalanceDest - new balance recipient after the transaction. Note that there is not information for customers that start with M (Merchants).

isFraud - This is the transactions made by the fraudulent agents inside the simulation. In this specific dataset the fraudulent behavior of the agents aims to profit by taking control or customers accounts and try to empty the funds by transferring to another account and then cashing out of the system.

isFlaggedFraud - The business model aims to control massive transfers from one account to another and flags illegal attempts. An illegal attempt in this dataset is an attempt to transfer more than 200.000 in a single transaction.

Past Research

There are 5 similar files that contain the run of 5 different scenarios. These files are better explained at my PhD thesis chapter 7 (PhD Thesis Available here http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-12932).

We ran PaySim several times using random seeds for 744 steps, representing each hour of one month of real time, which matches the original logs. Each run took around 45 minutes on an i7 intel processor with 16GB of RAM. The final result of a run contains approximately 24 million of financial records divided into the 5 types of categories: CASH-IN, CASH-OUT, DEBIT, PAYMENT and TRANSFER.

Acknowledgements

This work is part of the research project ”Scalable resource-efficient systems for big data analytics” funded by the Knowledge Foundation (grant: 20140032) in Sweden.

Please refer to this dataset using the following citations:

PaySim first paper of the simulator:

E. A. Lopez-Rojas , A. Elmir, and S. Axelsson. "PaySim: A financial mobile money simulator for fraud detection". In: The 28th European Modeling and Simulation Symposium-EMSS, Larnaca, Cyprus. 2016

Abstract

Well-functioning financial systems serve a vital purpose, offering savings, credit, payment, and risk management products to people with a wide range of needs. Yet until now little had been known about the global reach of the financial sector - the extent of financial inclusion and the degree to which such groups as the poor, women, and youth are excluded from formal financial systems. Systematic indicators of the use of different financial services had been lacking for most economies.

The Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) database provides such indicators. This database contains the first round of Global Findex indicators, measuring how adults in more than 140 economies save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. The data set can be used to track the effects of financial inclusion policies globally and develop a deeper and more nuanced understanding of how people around the world manage their day-to-day finances. By making it possible to identify segments of the population excluded from the formal financial sector, the data can help policy makers prioritize reforms and design new policies.

Geographic coverage

National Coverage.

Analysis unit

Individual

Universe

The target population is the civilian, non-institutionalized population 15 years and above. The sample is nationally representative.

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

The Global Findex indicators are drawn from survey data collected by Gallup, Inc. over the 2011 calendar year, covering more than 150,000 adults in 148 economies and representing about 97 percent of the world's population. Since 2005, Gallup has surveyed adults annually around the world, using a uniform methodology and randomly selected, nationally representative samples. The second round of Global Findex indicators was collected in 2014 and is forthcoming in 2015. The set of indicators will be collected again in 2017.

Surveys were conducted face-to-face in economies where landline telephone penetration is less than 80 percent, or where face-to-face interviewing is customary. The first stage of sampling is the identification of primary sampling units, consisting of clusters of households. The primary sampling units are stratified by population size, geography, or both, and clustering is achieved through one or more stages of sampling. Where population information is available, sample selection is based on probabilities proportional to population size; otherwise, simple random sampling is used. Random route procedures are used to select sampled households. Unless an outright refusal occurs, interviewers make up to three attempts to survey the sampled household. If an interview cannot be obtained at the initial sampled household, a simple substitution method is used. Respondents are randomly selected within the selected households by means of the Kish grid.

Surveys were conducted by telephone in economies where landline telephone penetration is over 80 percent. The telephone surveys were conducted using random digit dialing or a nationally representative list of phone numbers. In selected countries where cell phone penetration is high, a dual sampling frame is used. Random respondent selection is achieved by using either the latest birthday or Kish grid method. At least three attempts are made to teach a person in each household, spread over different days and times of year.

The sample size in the majority of economies was 1,000 individuals.

Mode of data collection

Landline and cellular telephone

Research instrument

The questionnaire was designed by the World Bank, in conjunction with a Technical Advisory Board composed of leading academics, practitioners, and policy makers in the field of financial inclusion. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Gallup, Inc. also provided valuable input. The questionnaire was piloted in over 20 countries using focus groups, cognitive interviews, and field testing. The questionnaire is available in 142 languages upon request.

Questions on insurance, mobile payments, and loan purposes were asked only in developing economies. The indicators on awareness and use of microfinance insitutions (MFIs) are not included in the public dataset. However, adults who report saving at an MFI are considered to have an account; this is reflected in the composite account indicator.

Sampling error estimates

Estimates of standard errors (which account for sampling error) vary by country and indicator. For country- and indicator-specific standard errors, refer to the Annex and Country Table in Demirguc-Kunt, Asli and L. Klapper. 2012. "Measuring Financial Inclusion: The Global Findex." Policy Research Working Paper 6025, World Bank, Washington, D.C.

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