This Economic Commentary explains the concerns that are associated with the combination of deflation, low economic activity, and zero nominal interest rates and describes how monetary policy might be conducted in such a situation. We argue that avoiding expectations of deflation is key and that the monetary authority needs to demonstrate an unequivocal commitment to preventing deflation. We also argue that price-level targeting might be a good device for communicating such a commitment.

From January 2022 to October 2025, a global trend emerged as almost all advanced and emerging economies increased their central bank policy rates. This widespread tightening of monetary policy was in response to inflationary pressures and economic challenges. However, a shift occurred in the latter half of 2025, with most countries beginning to lower their rates, signaling a new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Since September 2023, ****** has consistently held the highest interest rate among the observed countries.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained an accommodative monetary policy ever since the 2007 recession, and some financial market participants are concerned that long-term interest rates may increase more than should be expected when the Committee starts to tighten. But a look at five historical episodes of monetary policy tightening suggests that such an outcome is more likely when markets are surprised by policy actions or economic developments. Given the Fed’s new policy tools, especially its evolution toward more transparent communications, the odds of a surprise are far less likely now.

The benchmark interest rate in Uruguay was last recorded at 8 percent. This dataset provides - Uruguay Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Poland was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides - Poland Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The neutral interest rate (r-star) is an important input in monetary policy discussions and is commonly used to assess the stance of monetary policy. This Economic Commentary presents estimates of the neutral interest rate from a recently developed model and provides a high-level description of this new model. With data through 2025:Q2, the model estimates the implied (medium-run) nominal neutral interest rate to be 3.7 percent, with a 68 percent coverage band ranging from 2.9 percent to 4.5 percent. Given that the effective nominal federal funds rate is currently in the range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, this model estimates with a high level of certainty (77 percent probability) that the policy stance is in restrictive territory. The updates to the estimates of neutral interest rate (r-star) from the Zaman model reported in this Economic Commentary are available at openICPSR, doi.org/10.3886/E227362 .

Expansionary spillovers from foreign central banks may have weighed down long-term interest rates in the United States since 2015.

As of December 2024, India's policy interest stood at approximately *** percent, with forecasts indicating a cut to around *** percent by the end of 2025. In contrast, Japan was forecasted to see a policy interest rate hike from around *** percent in December 2024 to *** percent by the end of 2025.

Speech by Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - Workshop on Low-Interest-Rate and Unconventional Monetary Policy - Norges Bank, Oslo, Norway (via videoconference) - June 22, 2021 10:30 a.m. ET

Monthly and long-term Chile Interest Rate data: historical series and analyst forecasts curated by FocusEconomics.

For many years prior to the global financial crisis, the Federal Open Market Committee set a target for the federal funds rate and achieved that target through small purchases and sales of securities in the open market. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, with a superabundant level of reserve balances in the banking system having been created as a result of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase programs, this approach to implementing monetary policy will no longer work. This paper provides a primer on the Fed's implementation of monetary policy. We use the standard textbook model to illustrate why the approach used by the Federal Reserve before the financial crisis to keep the federal funds rate near the Federal Open Market Committee's target will not work in current circumstances, and explain the approach that the Committee intends to use instead when it decides to begin raising short-term interest rates.

This dataset tracks the policy interest rates of the world’s top 8 central banks from 1980 to 2025, offering a unique longitudinal view into global monetary trends. Central banks included are: the Federal Reserve (USA), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of Canada (BoC), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and Sveriges Riksbank (Sweden). Note: The ECB's data begins in 1999, aligning with its establishment.

Ideal for time-series analysis, forecasting, and macroeconomic research, this dataset can be used to study inflation targeting regimes, financial crises, and policy divergence/convergence across developed economies.

The benchmark interest rate in Thailand was last recorded at 1.50 percent. This dataset provides - Thailand Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Key information about Uruguay Policy Rate

• Uruguay cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Overnight Monetary Policy Rate) was set at 8.00 % pa in Nov 2025, compared with 8.25 % pa in the previous Oct 2025.
• Uruguay Policy Rate averaged 9.25 % pa and is updated monthly, available from Sep 2007 to Nov 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 11.50 % pa in Mar 2023 and a record low of 4.50 % pa in Jul 2021.

• In the latest reports, Uruguay Short Term Interest Rates: Month End: Central Bank Bills: Peso: 3 Month was reported at 8.00 % pa in Nov 2025.
• Its Long Term Interest Rate (Long Term Interest Rate: Month End: Uruguay: Sovereign Debt Bond CUD Yield: 10 Years) was reported at 2.74 % pa in Jul 2021.
• Uruguay Exchange Rate against USD averaged 39.72 (USD/UYU) in Nov 2025.
• Its Real Effective Exchange Rate was 44.87 in Oct 2025.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. In January 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented another cut, setting the rate at 4.33 percent, which remained unchanged until September 2025, when another cut set the rate at 4.22 percent. In October 2025, the rate was further reduced to 4.09 percent. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate—from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April—mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2025, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

The enduring discourse regarding the effectiveness of interest rate policy in mitigating inflation within developing economies is characterized by the interplay of structural and supply-side determinants. Moreover, extant academic literature fails to resolve the direction of causality between inflation and interest rates. Nevertheless, the prevalent adoption of interest rate-based monetary policies in numerous developing economies raises a fundamental inquiry: What motivates central banks in these nations to consistently espouse this strategy? To address this inquiry, our study leverages wavelet transformation to dissect interest rate and inflation data across a spectrum of frequency scales. This innovative methodology paves the way for a meticulous exploration of the intricate causal interplay between these pivotal macroeconomic variables for twenty-two developing economies using monthly data from 1992 to 2022. Traditional literature on causality tends to focus on short- and long-run timescales, yet our study posits that numerous uncharted time and frequency scales exist between these extremes. These intermediate scales may wield substantial influence over the causal relationship and its direction. Our research thus extends the boundaries of existing causality literature and presents fresh insights into the complexities of monetary policy in developing economies. Traditional wisdom suggests that central banks should raise interest rates to combat inflation. However, our study uncovers a contrasting reality in developing economies. It demonstrates a positive causal link between the policy rate and inflation, where an increase in the central bank’s interest rates leads to an upsurge in price levels. Paradoxically, in response to escalating prices, the central bank continues to heighten the policy rate, thereby perpetuating this cyclical pattern. Given this observed positive causal relationship in developing economies, central banks must explore structural and supply-side factors to break this cycle and regain control over inflation.

Key information about Italy Policy Rate

• Italy cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Main Refinancing Operations) was set at 2.15 % pa in Nov 2025, compared with 2.15 % pa in the previous Oct 2025.
• Italy Policy Rate averaged 0.00 % pa and is updated monthly, available from Jan 1999 to Nov 2025.

• In the latest reports, Italy Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: EURIBOR: 3 Months was reported at -0.57 % pa in Nov 2021.
• Its Long Term Interest Rate (Long Term Interest Rate: Month Avg: Italy: ECB Harmonised ) was reported at 3.44 % pa in Oct 2025.
• Italy Exchange Rate against USD averaged 0.86 (USD/EUR) in Oct 2025.
• Its Real Effective Exchange Rate was 93.99 in Oct 2025.

Monthly and long-term Costa Rica Interest Rate data: historical series and analyst forecasts curated by FocusEconomics.