We present federal funds rates coming from a range of simple monetary policy rules based on multiple economic forecasts. Use our tool to create your own rule. Released quarterly.

We study the effects of monetary policy on economic activity separately identifying the effects of a conventional change in the fed funds rate from the policy of forward guidance. We use a structural VAR identified using external instruments from futures market data. The response of output to a fed funds rate shock is found to be consistent with typical monetary VAR analyses. However, the effect of a forward guidance shock that increases long-term interest rates has an expansionary effect on output. This counterintuitive response is shown to be tied to the asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public.

I estimate the effects of FOMC announcements, post-FOMC press conferences, and speeches and Congressional testimony by the Fed Chair on stock prices, Treasury yields, and interest rate futures from 1988–2019. I show that for all but the very shortest-maturity interest rate futures, Fed Chair speeches are more important than FOMC announcements. My results suggest that the previous literature’s focus on FOMC announcements has ignored the most important source of variation in U.S. monetary policy.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and March 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

United States Liab: Outs: IMFC: Life Ins Co Reserves: Policy Dividend Accumulation data was reported at 32.838 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 32.335 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Liab: Outs: IMFC: Life Ins Co Reserves: Policy Dividend Accumulation data is updated quarterly, averaging 25.293 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 45.077 USD bn in Sep 2007 and a record low of 2.294 USD bn in Dec 1951. United States Liab: Outs: IMFC: Life Ins Co Reserves: Policy Dividend Accumulation data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Household data was reported at 3.619 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -9.303 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Household data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.693 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 23.352 USD bn in Sep 2017 and a record low of -11.541 USD bn in Dec 2010. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Household data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

United States Assets: Outs: IMFC: Policy Pay: Household data was reported at 411.956 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 408.337 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Assets: Outs: IMFC: Policy Pay: Household data is updated quarterly, averaging 63.778 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 417.640 USD bn in Sep 2017 and a record low of 3.832 USD bn in Dec 1951. United States Assets: Outs: IMFC: Policy Pay: Household data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Nonfarm Noncorporate data was reported at 0.068 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -1.530 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Nonfarm Noncorporate data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.272 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.577 USD bn in Mar 1984 and a record low of -7.016 USD bn in Mar 2013. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Nonfarm Noncorporate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

According to a survey conducted between July 9 and July 11, 2022, 45 percent of Americans thought that Joe Biden was highly responsible for the current trend in the inflation rate. This is compared to 26 percent of Americans who said President Biden did not have a lot of responsibility for the current inflation rate.

Inflation in the U.S. Global events in 2022 had a significant impact on the United States. Inflation rose from 1.4 percent in January 2021 to 9.1 percent in June 2022. Significantly higher prices of basic goods led to increased concern over the state of the economy, and the ability to cover increasing monthly costs with the same income. Low interest rates, COVID-19-related supply constraints, corporate profiteering, and strong consumer spending had already put pressure on prices before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite rising wages on paper, the rapid growth of consumer prices resulted in an overall decline in real hourly earnings in the first half of 2022.

How much control does Joe Biden have over inflation? The bulk of economic performance and the inflation rate is determined by factors outside the President’s direct control, but U.S. presidents are often held accountable for it. Some of those factors are market forces, private business, productivity growth, the state of the global economy, and policies of the Federal Reserve. Although high-spending decisions such as the 2021 COVID-19 relief bill may have contributed to rising inflation rates, the bill has been seen by economists as a necessary intervention for preventing a recession at the time, as well as being of significant importance to low-income workers impacted by the pandemic.

The most important tool for curbing inflation and controlling the U.S. economy is the Federal Reserve. The Reserve has the ability to set, raise, and lower interest rates and determine the wider monetary policy for the United States – something out of the president’s control. In June 2022, the Reserve announced it would raise interest rates 0.75 percent for the second time that year – hoisting the rate to a target range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent – in an attempt to slow consumer demand and balance demand with supply. However, it can often take time before the impacts of interventions by the Federal Reserve are seen in the public’s day-to-day lives. Most economists expect this wave of inflation to pass in a year to 18 months.

United States Liab: Flow: IMFC: saar: Life Ins Co Reserves: Policy Dividend Accu data was reported at 2.012 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -7.076 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Liab: Flow: IMFC: saar: Life Ins Co Reserves: Policy Dividend Accu data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.574 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.736 USD bn in Mar 2009 and a record low of -17.608 USD bn in Dec 2008. United States Liab: Flow: IMFC: saar: Life Ins Co Reserves: Policy Dividend Accu data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Nonfinancial Corporate data was reported at 2.245 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -6.939 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Nonfinancial Corporate data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.604 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.861 USD bn in Sep 2017 and a record low of -6.939 USD bn in Dec 2017. United States Assets: Flow: IMFC: Policy Pay: Nonfinancial Corporate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

United States Liab: Outs: IMFC: Policy Pay: Property Casualty Insurance data was reported at 899.478 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 893.546 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Liab: Outs: IMFC: Policy Pay: Property Casualty Insurance data is updated quarterly, averaging 175.320 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 911.318 USD bn in Sep 2017 and a record low of 7.912 USD bn in Dec 1951. United States Liab: Outs: IMFC: Policy Pay: Property Casualty Insurance data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB068: Funds by Instruments: Flows and Outstanding: Identified Miscellaneous Financial Claims Part II.

Key information about United Kingdom Foreign Exchange Reserves: Months of Import

• United Kingdom Foreign Exchange Reserves equaled 1.7 Months of Import in Dec 2024, compared with the ratio of 1.5 in the previous month
• UK Foreign Exchange Reserves: Months of Import data is updated monthly, available from Jul 1999 to Dec 2024
• The data reached an all-time high of 3.9 in May 2020 and a record low of 0.7 in Jul 2008

CEIC calculates Foreign Exchange Reserves as Months of Import from monthly Foreign Exchange Reserves and monthly Imports. Foreign Exchange Reserves is calculated as the sum of Foreign Currency Reserves and Other Reserve Assets, which include other financial instruments denominated in foreign currency. The Bank of England provides Foreign Exchange Reserves in USD. UK Trade Info provides Imports in local currency. Federal Reserve Board average market exchange rate is used for currency conversions. Foreign Exchange Reserves excludes Bank of England Foreign Exchange Reserves, as they are not considered part of UK Official Reserve Assets. However, Bank of England foreign currency assets may be used in case of foreign exchange intervention for monetary policy objectives.


Further information about United Kingdom Foreign Exchange Reserves: Months of Import

• In the latest reports, UK Foreign Exchange Reserves was measured at 112.5 USD bn in Jan 2025
• Its Money Supply M2 increased 2.2 % YoY in Dec 2024
• UK Domestic Credit reached 4,866.2 USD bn in Dec 2024, representing an drop of 1.3 % YoY
• The country's Non Performing Loans Ratio stood at 1.0 % in Dec 2022, compared with the ratio of 1.0 % in the previous year
• Household Debt of UK reached 3,076.4 USD bn in Sep 2024, accounting for 81.6 % of the country's Nominal GDP