Nigeria has the largest population in Africa. As of 2025, the country counted over 237.5 million individuals, whereas Ethiopia, which ranked second, has around 135.5 million inhabitants. Egypt registered the largest population in North Africa, reaching nearly 118.4 million people. In terms of inhabitants per square kilometer, Nigeria only ranked seventh, while Mauritius had the highest population density on the whole African continent in 2023. The fastest-growing world region Africa is the second most populous continent in the world, after Asia. Nevertheless, Africa records the highest growth rate worldwide, with figures rising by over two percent every year. In some countries, such as Chad, South Sudan, Somalia, and the Central African Republic, the population increase peaks at over 3.4 percent. With so many births, Africa is also the youngest continent in the world. However, this coincides with a low life expectancy. African cities on the rise The last decades have seen high urbanization rates in Asia, mainly in China and India. African cities are also growing at large rates. Indeed, the continent has three megacities and is expected to add four more by 2050. Furthermore, Africa's fastest-growing cities are forecast to be Bujumbura, in Burundi, and Zinder, Nigeria, by 2035.

The population in Africa is expected to grow by ** percent by 2050. Among the countries forecast to be the most populated in the continent, Nigeria leads, with an estimated population of over *** million people. Currently, the nation has already the largest number of inhabitants in Africa. The highest population growth is expected to be measured in Angola, by ***** percent between 2019 and 2050. The number of inhabitants in the country is forecast to jump from **** million to **** million in the mentioned period.

This dataset provides values for POPULATION reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

Mauritius had the highest population density level in Africa as of 2023, with nearly *** inhabitants per square kilometer. The country has also one of the smallest territories on the continent, which contributes to the high density. As a matter of fact, the majority of African countries with the largest concentration of people per square kilometer have the smallest geographical area as well. The exception is Nigeria, which ranks among the largest territorial countries in Africa and is very densely populated at the same time. After all, Nigeria has also the largest population on the continent.

The northernmost region of the African continent was home to approximately 208 million individuals in 2023. Egypt, the third most populous country in Africa, had roughly 50 percent of the region's population living within its borders, with over 105 million inhabitants. Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia followed with 46 million, 37 million, and 12 million citizens, respectively.

The average for 2021 based on 53 countries was 112 people per square km. The highest value was in Mauritius: 634 people per square km and the lowest value was in Namibia: 3 people per square km. The indicator is available from 1961 to 2021. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

The average for 2023 based on 53 countries was 50.08 percent. The highest value was in Zimbabwe: 52.38 percent and the lowest value was in the Seychelles: 44.82 percent. The indicator is available from 1960 to 2023. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

This map contains estimates for total population by country from 1950 to 2015. Symbology changes slightly when zoomed in to individual continents (1:50,000,000). Source: United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, File POP/1-1.Estimates are in thousands. Other fields in the Country Population Estimates layer include: Major Region (e.g. Africa), Minor Region (e.g. Eastern Africa), and UN Documentation Notes. The UN Documentation Notes field corresponds to the following notes:(1) Including Agalega, Rodrigues and Saint Brandon.(2) Including Zanzibar.(3) Including Ascension and Tristan da Cunha.(4) For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and Macao, Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China, and Taiwan Province of China.(5) As of 1 July 1997, Hong Kong became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.(6) As of 20 December 1999, Macao became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.(7) The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.(8) Including Sabah and Sarawak.(9) Including Nagorno-Karabakh.(10) Refers to the whole country(11) Including Abkhazia and South Ossetia.(12) Including East Jerusalem.(13) Including Transnistria.(14) Including Crimea(15) Refers to Guernsey, and Jersey.(16) Including Åland Islands.(17) Including Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands.(18) Refers to the Vatican City State.(19) Including Kosovo.(20) Including Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla.(21) The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.(22) Refers to Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius.(23) Including Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin (French part).(24) Including Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island.(25) Including Pitcairn.

The population in Africa was forecast to expand annually by an average of **** percent between 2020 and 2025. Over 20 countries might grow above this rate, with Niger leading by an annual population change of *** percent in the mentioned period. Angola was expected to follow, with an average population growth of **** percent annually. Overall, Africa has recorded a faster population growth compared to other world regions. The continent's population almost doubled in the last 25 years.

As of 2023, the total population of Africa was over 1.48 billion. The number of inhabitants on the continent increased annually from 2000 onwards. In comparison, the total population was around 831 million in 2000. According to forecasts, Africa will experience impressive population growth in the coming years and will close the gap with the Asian population by 2100. Over 200 million people in Nigeria Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa. In 2025, the country’s population exceeded 237 million people. Ethiopia followed with a population of around 135 million, while Egypt ranked third, accounting for approximately 118 million individuals. Other leading African countries in terms of population were the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, South Africa, and Kenya. Additionally, Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Chad recorded the highest population growth rate on the continent in 2023, with the number of residents rising by over 3.08 percent compared to the previous year. On the other hand, the populations of Tunisia and Eswatini registered a growth rate below 0.85 percent, while for Mauritius and Seychelles, it was negative. Drivers for population growth Several factors have driven Africa’s population growth. For instance, the annual number of births on the continent has risen constantly over the years, jumping from nearly 32 million in 2000 to almost 46 million in 2023. Moreover, despite the constant decline in the number of births per woman, the continent’s fertility rate has remained considerably above the global average. Each woman in Africa had an average of over four children throughout her reproductive years as of 2023, compared to a world rate of around two births per woman. At the same time, improved health and living conditions contributed to decreasing mortality rate and increasing life expectancy in recent years, driving population growth.

The average for 2023 based on 48 countries was 163437 refugees. The highest value was in Uganda: 1577498 refugees and the lowest value was in Mauritius: 5 refugees. The indicator is available from 1960 to 2023. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

The West Africa Coastal Vulnerability Mapping: Population Projections, 2030 and 2050 data set is based on an unreleased working version of the Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 4, year 2010 population count raster but at a coarser 5 arc-minute resolution. Bryan Jones of Baruch College produced country-level projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 (SSP4). SSP4 reflects a divided world where cities that have relatively high standards of living, are attractive to internal and international migrants. In low income countries, rapidly growing rural populations live on shrinking areas of arable land due to both high population pressure and expansion of large-scale mechanized farming by international agricultural firms. This pressure induces large migration flow to the cities, contributing to fast urbanization, although urban areas do not provide many opportUnities for the poor and there is a massive expansion of slums and squatter settlements. This scenario may not be the most likely for the West Africa region, but it has internal coherence and is at least plausible.

Cairo, in Egypt, ranked as the most populated city in Africa as of 2025, with an estimated population of over 23 million inhabitants living in Greater Cairo. Kinshasa, in Congo, and Lagos, in Nigeria, followed with some 17.8 million and 17.2 million, respectively. Among the 15 largest cities in the continent, another one, Kano, was located in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. Population density trends in Africa As of 2023, Africa exhibited a population density of 50.1 individuals per square kilometer. Since 2000, the population density across the continent has been experiencing a consistent annual increment. Projections indicated that the average population residing within each square kilometer would rise to approximately 58.5 by the year 2030. Moreover, Mauritius stood out as the African nation with the most elevated population density, exceeding 627 individuals per square kilometre. Mauritius possesses one of the most compact territories on the continent, a factor that significantly influences its high population density. Urbanization dynamics in Africa The urbanization rate in Africa was anticipated to reach close to 45.5 percent in 2024. Urbanization across the continent has consistently risen since 2000, with urban areas accommodating only around a third of the total population then. This trajectory is projected to continue its rise in the years ahead. Nevertheless, the distribution between rural and urban populations shows remarkable diversity throughout the continent. In 2024, Gabon and Libya stood out as Africa’s most urbanized nations, each surpassing 80 percent urbanization. As of the same year, Africa's population was estimated to expand by 2.27 percent compared to the preceding year. Since 2000, the population growth rate across the continent has consistently exceeded 2.3 percent, reaching its pinnacle at 2.63 percent in 2013. Although the growth rate has experienced a deceleration, Africa's population will persistently grow significantly in the forthcoming years.

WorldPop produces different types of gridded population count datasets, depending on the methods used and end application. An overview of the data can be found in Tatem et al, and a description of the modelling methods used found in Stevens et al. The 'Global per country 2000-2020' datasets represent the outputs from a project focused on construction of consistent 100m resolution population count datasets for all countries of the World for each year 2000-2020. These efforts necessarily involved some shortcuts for consistency. The 'individual countries' datasets represent older efforts to map populations for each country separately, using a set of tailored geospatial inputs and differing methods and time periods. The 'whole continent' datasets are mosaics of the individual countries datasets

WorldPop (www.worldpop.org - School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton; Department of Geography and Geosciences, University of Louisville; Departement de Geographie, Universite de Namur) and Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University (2018). Global High Resolution Population Denominators Project - Funded by The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1134076). https://dx.doi.org/10.5258/SOTON/WP00645

Abstract

Round 1 of the Afrobarometer survey was conducted from July 1999 through June 2001 in 12 African countries, to solicit public opinion on democracy, governance, markets, and national identity. The full 12 country dataset released was pieced together out of different projects, Round 1 of the Afrobarometer survey,the old Southern African Democracy Barometer, and similar surveys done in West and East Africa.

The 7 country dataset is a subset of the Round 1 survey dataset, and consists of a combined dataset for the 7 Southern African countries surveyed with other African countries in Round 1, 1999-2000 (Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe). It is a useful dataset because, in contrast to the full 12 country Round 1 dataset, all countries in this dataset were surveyed with the identical questionnaire

Geographic coverage

Botswana Lesotho Malawi Namibia South Africa Zambia Zimbabwe

Analysis unit

Basic units of analysis that the study investigates include: individuals and groups

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

A new sample has to be drawn for each round of Afrobarometer surveys. Whereas the standard sample size for Round 3 surveys will be 1200 cases, a larger sample size will be required in societies that are extremely heterogeneous (such as South Africa and Nigeria), where the sample size will be increased to 2400. Other adaptations may be necessary within some countries to account for the varying quality of the census data or the availability of census maps.

The sample is designed as a representative cross-section of all citizens of voting age in a given country. The goal is to give every adult citizen an equal and known chance of selection for interview. We strive to reach this objective by (a) strictly applying random selection methods at every stage of sampling and by (b) applying sampling with probability proportionate to population size wherever possible. A randomly selected sample of 1200 cases allows inferences to national adult populations with a margin of sampling error of no more than plus or minus 2.5 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. If the sample size is increased to 2400, the confidence interval shrinks to plus or minus 2 percent.

Sample Universe

The sample universe for Afrobarometer surveys includes all citizens of voting age within the country. In other words, we exclude anyone who is not a citizen and anyone who has not attained this age (usually 18 years) on the day of the survey. Also excluded are areas determined to be either inaccessible or not relevant to the study, such as those experiencing armed conflict or natural disasters, as well as national parks and game reserves. As a matter of practice, we have also excluded people living in institutionalized settings, such as students in dormitories and persons in prisons or nursing homes.

What to do about areas experiencing political unrest? On the one hand we want to include them because they are politically important. On the other hand, we want to avoid stretching out the fieldwork over many months while we wait for the situation to settle down. It was agreed at the 2002 Cape Town Planning Workshop that it is difficult to come up with a general rule that will fit all imaginable circumstances. We will therefore make judgments on a case-by-case basis on whether or not to proceed with fieldwork or to exclude or substitute areas of conflict. National Partners are requested to consult Core Partners on any major delays, exclusions or substitutions of this sort.

Sample Design

The sample design is a clustered, stratified, multi-stage, area probability sample.

To repeat the main sampling principle, the objective of the design is to give every sample element (i.e. adult citizen) an equal and known chance of being chosen for inclusion in the sample. We strive to reach this objective by (a) strictly applying random selection methods at every stage of sampling and by (b) applying sampling with probability proportionate to population size wherever possible.

In a series of stages, geographically defined sampling units of decreasing size are selected. To ensure that the sample is representative, the probability of selection at various stages is adjusted as follows:

The sample is stratified by key social characteristics in the population such as sub-national area (e.g. region/province) and residential locality (urban or rural). The area stratification reduces the likelihood that distinctive ethnic or language groups are left out of the sample. And the urban/rural stratification is a means to make sure that these localities are represented in their correct proportions. Wherever possible, and always in the first stage of sampling, random sampling is conducted with probability proportionate to population size (PPPS). The purpose is to guarantee that larger (i.e., more populated) geographical units have a proportionally greater probability of being chosen into the sample. The sampling design has four stages

A first-stage to stratify and randomly select primary sampling units;

A second-stage to randomly select sampling start-points;

A third stage to randomly choose households;

A final-stage involving the random selection of individual respondents

We shall deal with each of these stages in turn.

STAGE ONE: Selection of Primary Sampling Units (PSUs)

The primary sampling units (PSU's) are the smallest, well-defined geographic units for which reliable population data are available. In most countries, these will be Census Enumeration Areas (or EAs). Most national census data and maps are broken down to the EA level. In the text that follows we will use the acronyms PSU and EA interchangeably because, when census data are employed, they refer to the same unit.

We strongly recommend that NIs use official national census data as the sampling frame for Afrobarometer surveys. Where recent or reliable census data are not available, NIs are asked to inform the relevant Core Partner before they substitute any other demographic data. Where the census is out of date, NIs should consult a demographer to obtain the best possible estimates of population growth rates. These should be applied to the outdated census data in order to make projections of population figures for the year of the survey. It is important to bear in mind that population growth rates vary by area (region) and (especially) between rural and urban localities. Therefore, any projected census data should include adjustments to take such variations into account.

Indeed, we urge NIs to establish collegial working relationships within professionals in the national census bureau, not only to obtain the most recent census data, projections, and maps, but to gain access to sampling expertise. NIs may even commission a census statistician to draw the sample to Afrobarometer specifications, provided that provision for this service has been made in the survey budget.

Regardless of who draws the sample, the NIs should thoroughly acquaint themselves with the strengths and weaknesses of the available census data and the availability and quality of EA maps. The country and methodology reports should cite the exact census data used, its known shortcomings, if any, and any projections made from the data. At minimum, the NI must know the size of the population and the urban/rural population divide in each region in order to specify how to distribute population and PSU's in the first stage of sampling. National investigators should obtain this written data before they attempt to stratify the sample.

Once this data is obtained, the sample population (either 1200 or 2400) should be stratified, first by area (region/province) and then by residential locality (urban or rural). In each case, the proportion of the sample in each locality in each region should be the same as its proportion in the national population as indicated by the updated census figures.

Having stratified the sample, it is then possible to determine how many PSU's should be selected for the country as a whole, for each region, and for each urban or rural locality.

The total number of PSU's to be selected for the whole country is determined by calculating the maximum degree of clustering of interviews one can accept in any PSU. Because PSUs (which are usually geographically small EAs) tend to be socially homogenous we do not want to select too many people in any one place. Thus, the Afrobarometer has established a standard of no more than 8 interviews per PSU. For a sample size of 1200, the sample must therefore contain 150 PSUs/EAs (1200 divided by 8). For a sample size of 2400, there must be 300 PSUs/EAs.

These PSUs should then be allocated proportionally to the urban and rural localities within each regional stratum of the sample. Let's take a couple of examples from a country with a sample size of 1200. If the urban locality of Region X in this country constitutes 10 percent of the current national population, then the sample for this stratum should be 15 PSUs (calculated as 10 percent of 150 PSUs). If the rural population of Region Y constitutes 4 percent of the current national population, then the sample for this stratum should be 6 PSU's.

The next step is to select particular PSUs/EAs using random methods. Using the above example of the rural localities in Region Y, let us say that you need to pick 6 sample EAs out of a census list that contains a total of 240 rural EAs in Region Y. But which 6? If the EAs created by the national census bureau are of equal or roughly equal population size, then selection is relatively straightforward. Just number all EAs consecutively, then make six selections using a table of random numbers. This procedure, known as simple random sampling (SRS), will

Africa's population is projected to grow significantly in the coming years. Estimates conducted in July 2020 show that Nigeria, the most populous country on the continent, would reach around *** million inhabitants by 2100. Compared to 2021, when the country counted *** million people, this would represent an impressive growth of around *** percent. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is estimated to be the second most populous nation on the African continent, reaching *** million individuals. According to the study, nine countries in Africa would exceed 100 million people by 2100.

• The current US Census Bureau world population estimate in June 2019 shows that the current global population is 7,577,130,400 people on Earth, which far exceeds the world population of 7.2 billion in 2015. Our estimate based on UN data shows the world's population surpassing 7.7 billion.
• China is the most populous country in the world with a population exceeding 1.4 billion. It is one of just two countries with a population of more than 1 billion, with India being the second. As of 2018, India has a population of over 1.355 billion people, and its population growth is expected to continue through at least 2050. By the year 2030, India is expected to become the most populous country in the world. This is because India’s population will grow, while China is projected to see a loss in population.
• The following 11 countries that are the most populous in the world each have populations exceeding 100 million. These include the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico, Japan, Ethiopia, and the Philippines. Of these nations, all are expected to continue to grow except Russia and Japan, which will see their populations drop by 2030 before falling again significantly by 2050.
• Many other nations have populations of at least one million, while there are also countries that have just thousands. The smallest population in the world can be found in Vatican City, where only 801 people reside.
• In 2018, the world’s population growth rate was 1.12%. Every five years since the 1970s, the population growth rate has continued to fall. The world’s population is expected to continue to grow larger but at a much slower pace. By 2030, the population will exceed 8 billion. In 2040, this number will grow to more than 9 billion. In 2055, the number will rise to over 10 billion, and another billion people won’t be added until near the end of the century. The current annual population growth estimates from the United Nations are in the millions - estimating that over 80 million new lives are added yearly.
• This population growth will be significantly impacted by nine specific countries which are situated to contribute to the population growth more quickly than other nations. These nations include the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda, the United Republic of Tanzania, and the United States of America. Particularly of interest, India is on track to overtake China's position as the most populous country by 2030. Additionally, multiple nations within Africa are expected to double their populations before fertility rates begin to slow entirely.

Content

• In this Dataset, we have Historical Population data for every Country/Territory in the world by different parameters like Area Size of the Country/Territory, Name of the Continent, Name of the Capital, Density, Population Growth Rate, Ranking based on Population, World Population Percentage, etc. >Dataset Glossary (Column-Wise):
• Rank: Rank by Population.
• CCA3: 3 Digit Country/Territories Code.
• Country/Territories: Name of the Country/Territories.
• Capital: Name of the Capital.
• Continent: Name of the Continent.
• 2022 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 2022.
• 2020 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 2020.
• 2015 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 2015.
• 2010 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 2010.
• 2000 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 2000.
• 1990 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 1990.
• 1980 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 1980.
• 1970 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 1970.
• Area (km²): Area size of the Country/Territories in square kilometers.
• Density (per km²): Population Density per square kilometer.
• Growth Rate: Population Growth Rate by Country/Territories.
• World Population Percentage: The population percentage by each Country/Territories.

Abstract

The Afrobarometer project assesses attitudes and public opinion on democracy, markets, and civil society in several sub-Saharan African.This dataset was compiled from the studies in Round 3 of the Afrobarometer survey, conducted from 2005-2006 in 18 African countries (Benin, Botswana, Cape Verde, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe).

Geographic coverage

The Afrobarometer surveys have national coverage

Botswana Lesotho Malawi Namibia South Africa Zambia Zimbabwe Ghana Mali Nigeria Tanzania Uganda Cape Verde Mozambique Senegal Kenya Benin Madagascar

Analysis unit

Basic units of analysis that the study investigates include: individuals and groups

Universe

The sample universe for Afrobarometer surveys includes all citizens of voting age within the country. In other words, we exclude anyone who is not a citizen and anyone who has not attained this age (usually 18 years) on the day of the survey. Also excluded are areas determined to be either inaccessible or not relevant to the study, such as those experiencing armed conflict or natural disasters, as well as national parks and game reserves. As a matter of practice, we have also excluded people living in institutionalized settings, such as students in dormitories and persons in prisons or nursing homes.

What to do about areas experiencing political unrest? On the one hand we want to include them because they are politically important. On the other hand, we want to avoid stretching out the fieldwork over many months while we wait for the situation to settle down. It was agreed at the 2002 Cape Town Planning Workshop that it is difficult to come up with a general rule that will fit all imaginable circumstances. We will therefore make judgments on a case-by-case basis on whether or not to proceed with fieldwork or to exclude or substitute areas of conflict. National Partners are requested to consult Core Partners on any major delays, exclusions or substitutions of this sort.

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

A new sample has to be drawn for each round of Afrobarometer surveys. Whereas the standard sample size for Round 3 surveys will be 1200 cases, a larger sample size will be required in societies that are extremely heterogeneous (such as South Africa and Nigeria), where the sample size will be increased to 2400. Other adaptations may be necessary within some countries to account for the varying quality of the census data or the availability of census maps.

The sample is designed as a representative cross-section of all citizens of voting age in a given country. The goal is to give every adult citizen an equal and known chance of selection for interview. We strive to reach this objective by (a) strictly applying random selection methods at every stage of sampling and by (b) applying sampling with probability proportionate to population size wherever possible. A randomly selected sample of 1200 cases allows inferences to national adult populations with a margin of sampling error of no more than plus or minus 2.5 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. If the sample size is increased to 2400, the confidence interval shrinks to plus or minus 2 percent.

Sample Universe

The sample universe for Afrobarometer surveys includes all citizens of voting age within the country. In other words, we exclude anyone who is not a citizen and anyone who has not attained this age (usually 18 years) on the day of the survey. Also excluded are areas determined to be either inaccessible or not relevant to the study, such as those experiencing armed conflict or natural disasters, as well as national parks and game reserves. As a matter of practice, we have also excluded people living in institutionalized settings, such as students in dormitories and persons in prisons or nursing homes.

What to do about areas experiencing political unrest? On the one hand we want to include them because they are politically important. On the other hand, we want to avoid stretching out the fieldwork over many months while we wait for the situation to settle down. It was agreed at the 2002 Cape Town Planning Workshop that it is difficult to come up with a general rule that will fit all imaginable circumstances. We will therefore make judgments on a case-by-case basis on whether or not to proceed with fieldwork or to exclude or substitute areas of conflict. National Partners are requested to consult Core Partners on any major delays, exclusions or substitutions of this sort.

Sample Design

The sample design is a clustered, stratified, multi-stage, area probability sample.

To repeat the main sampling principle, the objective of the design is to give every sample element (i.e. adult citizen) an equal and known chance of being chosen for inclusion in the sample. We strive to reach this objective by (a) strictly applying random selection methods at every stage of sampling and by (b) applying sampling with probability proportionate to population size wherever possible.

In a series of stages, geographically defined sampling units of decreasing size are selected. To ensure that the sample is representative, the probability of selection at various stages is adjusted as follows:

The sample is stratified by key social characteristics in the population such as sub-national area (e.g. region/province) and residential locality (urban or rural). The area stratification reduces the likelihood that distinctive ethnic or language groups are left out of the sample. And the urban/rural stratification is a means to make sure that these localities are represented in their correct proportions. Wherever possible, and always in the first stage of sampling, random sampling is conducted with probability proportionate to population size (PPPS). The purpose is to guarantee that larger (i.e., more populated) geographical units have a proportionally greater probability of being chosen into the sample. The sampling design has four stages

A first-stage to stratify and randomly select primary sampling units;

A second-stage to randomly select sampling start-points;

A third stage to randomly choose households;

A final-stage involving the random selection of individual respondents

We shall deal with each of these stages in turn.

STAGE ONE: Selection of Primary Sampling Units (PSUs)

The primary sampling units (PSU's) are the smallest, well-defined geographic units for which reliable population data are available. In most countries, these will be Census Enumeration Areas (or EAs). Most national census data and maps are broken down to the EA level. In the text that follows we will use the acronyms PSU and EA interchangeably because, when census data are employed, they refer to the same unit.

We strongly recommend that NIs use official national census data as the sampling frame for Afrobarometer surveys. Where recent or reliable census data are not available, NIs are asked to inform the relevant Core Partner before they substitute any other demographic data. Where the census is out of date, NIs should consult a demographer to obtain the best possible estimates of population growth rates. These should be applied to the outdated census data in order to make projections of population figures for the year of the survey. It is important to bear in mind that population growth rates vary by area (region) and (especially) between rural and urban localities. Therefore, any projected census data should include adjustments to take such variations into account.

Indeed, we urge NIs to establish collegial working relationships within professionals in the national census bureau, not only to obtain the most recent census data, projections, and maps, but to gain access to sampling expertise. NIs may even commission a census statistician to draw the sample to Afrobarometer specifications, provided that provision for this service has been made in the survey budget.

Regardless of who draws the sample, the NIs should thoroughly acquaint themselves with the strengths and weaknesses of the available census data and the availability and quality of EA maps. The country and methodology reports should cite the exact census data used, its known shortcomings, if any, and any projections made from the data. At minimum, the NI must know the size of the population and the urban/rural population divide in each region in order to specify how to distribute population and PSU's in the first stage of sampling. National investigators should obtain this written data before they attempt to stratify the sample.

Once this data is obtained, the sample population (either 1200 or 2400) should be stratified, first by area (region/province) and then by residential locality (urban or rural). In each case, the proportion of the sample in each locality in each region should be the same as its proportion in the national population as indicated by the updated census figures.

Having stratified the sample, it is then possible to determine how many PSU's should be selected for the country as a whole, for each region, and for each urban or rural locality.

The total number of PSU's to be selected for the whole country is determined by calculating the maximum degree of clustering of interviews one can accept in any PSU. Because PSUs (which are usually geographically small EAs) tend to be socially homogenous we do not want to select too many people in any one place. Thus, the Afrobarometer has established a standard of no more than 8 interviews per PSU. For a sample size of 1200, the sample must therefore contain 150 PSUs/EAs (1200 divided by 8). For a sample size of 2400, there must be 300 PSUs/EAs.

These PSUs should then be allocated

All the African countries registered a positive population growth in 2024, except for Mauritius. Chad had the highest population growth rate at nearly **** percent compared to the previous year. South Sudan, Somalia, the Central African Republic, Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Angola followed, recording over ***** percent growth each. The African population has been increasing considerably in the last decades and is expected increase by almost *********** by 2050. This is due to several factors, including the rising life expectancy and the high fertility rates registered on the continent.

Abstract

The authors combine data from 84 Demographic and Health Surveys from 46 countries to analyze trends and socioeconomic differences in adult mortality, calculating mortality based on the sibling mortality reports collected from female respondents aged 15-49.

The analysis yields four main findings. First, adult mortality is different from child mortality: while under-5 mortality shows a definite improving trend over time, adult mortality does not, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. The second main finding is the increase in adult mortality in Sub-Saharan African countries. The increase is dramatic among those most affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Mortality rates in the highest HIV-prevalence countries of southern Africa exceed those in countries that experienced episodes of civil war. Third, even in Sub-Saharan countries where HIV-prevalence is not as high, mortality rates appear to be at best stagnating, and even increasing in several cases. Finally, the main socioeconomic dimension along which mortality appears to differ in the aggregate is gender. Adult mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa have risen substantially higher for men than for women?especially so in the high HIV-prevalence countries. On the whole, the data do not show large gaps by urban/rural residence or by school attainment.

This paper is a product of the Human Development and Public Services Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org.

Geographic coverage

We derive estimates of adult mortality from an analysis of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 46 countries, 33 of which are from Sub-Saharan Africa and 13 of which are from countries in other regions (Annex Table). Several of the countries have been surveyed more than once and we base our estimates on the total of 84 surveys that have been carried out (59 in Sub-Saharan Africa, 25 elsewhere).

The countries covered by DHS in Sub-Saharan Africa represent almost 90 percent of the region's population. Outside of Sub-Saharan Africa the DHS surveys we use cover a far smaller share of the population-even if this is restricted to countries whose GDP per capita never exceeds $10,000: overall about 14 percent of the population is covered by these countries, although this increases to 29 percent if China and India are excluded (countries for which we cannot calculate adult mortality using the DHS). It is therefore important to keep in mind that the sample of non-Sub-Saharan African countries we have cannot be thought of as "representative" of the rest of the world, or even the rest of the developing world.

Analysis unit

Country

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Mode of data collection

Face-to-face [f2f]

Cleaning operations

In the course of carrying out this study, the authors created two databases of adult mortality estimates based on the original DHS datasets, both of which are publicly available for analysts who wish to carry out their own analysis of the data.

The naming conventions for the adult mortality-related are as follows. Variables are named:

GGG_MC_AAAA

GGG refers to the population subgroup. The values it can take, and the corresponding definitions are in the following table:

All - All Fem - Female Mal - Male Rur - Rural Urb - Urban Rurm - Rural/Male Urbm - Urban/Male Rurf - Rural/Female Urbf - Urban/Female Noed - No education Pri - Some or completed primary only Sec - At least some secondary education Noedm - No education/Male Prim - Some or completed primary only/Male Secm - At least some secondary education/Male Noedf - No education/Female Prif - Some or completed primary only/Female Secf - At least some secondary education/Female Rch - Rural as child Uch - Urban as child Rchm - Rural as child/Male Uchm - Urban as child/Male Rchf - Rural as child/Female Uchf - Urban as child/Female Edltp - Less than primary schooling Edpom - Primary or more schooling Edltpm - Less than primary schooling/Male Edpomm - Primary or more schooling/Male Edltpf - Less than primary schooling/Female Edpomf - Primary or more schooling/Female Edltpu - Less than primary schooling/Urban Edpomu - Primary or more schooling/Urban Edltpr - Less than primary schooling/Rural Edpomr - Primary or more schooling/Rural Edltpmu - Less than primary schooling/Male/Urban Edpommu - Primary or more schooling/Male/Urban Edltpmr - Less than primary schooling/Male/Rural Edpommr - Primary or more schooling/Male/Rural Edltpfu - Less than primary schooling/Female/Urban Edpomfu - Primary or more schooling/Female/Urban Edltpfr - Less than primary schooling/Female/Rural Edpomfr - Primary or more schooling/Female/Rural

M refers to whether the variable is the number of observations used to calculate the estimate (in which case M takes on the value "n") or whether it is a mortality estimate (in which case M takes on the value "m").

C refers to whether the variable is for the unadjusted mortality rate calculation (in which case C takes on the value "u") or whether it adjusts for the number of surviving female siblings (in which case C takes on the value "a").

AAAA refers to the age group that the mortality estimate is calculated for. It takes on the values: 1554 - Ages 15-54 1524 - Ages 15-24 2534 - Ages 25-34 3544 - Ages 35-44 4554 - Ages 45-54

Other variables that are in the databases are:

period - Period for which mortality rate is calculated (takes on the values 1975-79, 1980-84 … 2000-04) svycountry - Name of country for DHS countries ccode3 - Country code u5mr - Under-5 mortality (from World Development Indicators) cname - Country name gdppc - GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) (from World Development Indicators) gdppcppp - GDP per capita PPP (constant 2005 intl $) (from World Development Indicators) pop - Population (from World Development Indicators) hivprev2001 - HIV prevalence in 2001 (from UNAIDS 2010) region - Region