Graph and download economic data for Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment (NROU) from Q1 1949 to Q4 2035 about NAIRU, long-term, projection, unemployment, rate, and USA.

United States CBO Projection: Natural Rate of Unemployment data was reported at 4.553 NA in Dec 2028. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.554 NA for Sep 2028. United States CBO Projection: Natural Rate of Unemployment data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.800 NA from Sep 2002 (Median) to Dec 2028, with 106 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.000 NA in Dec 2012 and a record low of 4.553 NA in Dec 2028. United States CBO Projection: Natural Rate of Unemployment data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G019: Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate: Projection: Congressional Budget Office.

Graph and download economic data for Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) (NROUST) from Q1 1949 to Q4 2031 about NAIRU, short-term, projection, unemployment, rate, and USA.

United States - Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) was 4.27% in October of 2031, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) reached a record high of 6.24 in April of 1978 and a record low of 4.27 in October of 2031. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

Estimates of the natural rate of unemployment are important in many macroeconomic models used by economists and policy advisors. This paper shows how such estimates might benefit from closer attention to regional developments. Regional business cycles do not move in lock-step, and greater dispersion among regions can affect estimates of the natural rate of unemployment. There is microeconomic evidence that employers are more reluctant to cut wages than they are to raise them. Accordingly, the relationship between wage inflation and vacancies is convex: An increase in vacancies raises wage inflation at an increasing rate. The authors' empirical results are consistent with this and indicate that if all else had remained constant, the reduction in the dispersion of regional unemployment rates between 1982 and 2000 would have meant a two-percentage-point drop in the natural rate of aggregate unemployment.

United States - Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment was 4.11% in October of 2035, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment reached a record high of 6.24 in April of 1978 and a record low of 4.11 in October of 2035. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

The seasonally-adjusted national unemployment rate is measured on a monthly basis in the United States. In February 2025, the national unemployment rate was at 4.1 percent. Seasonal adjustment is a statistical method of removing the seasonal component of a time series that is used when analyzing non-seasonal trends. U.S. monthly unemployment rate According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics - the principle fact-finding agency for the U.S. Federal Government in labor economics and statistics - unemployment decreased dramatically between 2010 and 2019. This trend of decreasing unemployment followed after a high in 2010 resulting from the 2008 financial crisis. However, after a smaller financial crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment reached 8.1 percent in 2020. As the economy recovered, the unemployment rate fell to 5.3 in 2021, and fell even further in 2022. Additional statistics from the BLS paint an interesting picture of unemployment in the United States. In November 2023, the states with the highest (seasonally adjusted) unemployment rate were the Nevada and the District of Columbia. Unemployment was the lowest in Maryland, at 1.8 percent. Workers in the agricultural and related industries suffered the highest unemployment rate of any industry at seven percent in December 2023.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Ann Natural Rate of Unemployment: sa: Mean data was reported at 4.410 % in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.841 % for 2016. United States FRBOP Forecast: Ann Natural Rate of Unemployment: sa: Mean data is updated yearly, averaging 5.013 % from Dec 1996 (Median) to 2017, with 22 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.927 % in 2012 and a record low of 4.410 % in 2017. United States FRBOP Forecast: Ann Natural Rate of Unemployment: sa: Mean data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.G022: Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate: Seasonally Adjusted: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

How should one measure the natural rate of unemployment? This paper proposes a systems procedure as an alternative to NAIRU. The natural rate is treated as an unobserved state variable in a system that includes measurement equations for the unemployment rate, the rate of wage growth and the rate of inflation. The model is derived from a version of the wage bargaining model of Blanchard and embodies a version of the natural rate hypothesis. The model is estimated by embedding the Kalman filter within the full-information maximum likelihood procedure. For US data, the estimated model implies substantial post-war variation in the natural rate and a negative, but weak, effect of inflation surprises on unemployment.

Unemployment Rate in China decreased to 5 percent in May from 5.10 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - China Unemployment Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The average unemployment rate was six percent in Germany in 2024. Since 2005, the rate of unemployment has generally been declining, though a slight increase was evident in recent years. Unemployment in Germany and comparison with other countries Germany has a comparatively low unemployment rate compared to its European neighbors, and they are expected to stay at around three percent over the next few years. This is a result of the damage the economy suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the lockdown, most businesses were closed, and many companies lost revenue meaning employees were let go. It is also possible that higher unemployment figures will continue into later years because of inflation and rising energy prices. There is also a slightly higher unemployment rate among men than there is among women. Social support Social support is money paid out to those who are unable to work for some reason, its purpose is to protect those who are most vulnerable. The status of being unemployed is defined as when an employed person is laid off, fired, or quits his work and is still looking for a job, this is what qualifies someone to receive a citizens allowance (Bürgergeld) in Germany. The payments are only made if you are unemployed and worked for the last 12 months. Otherwise, benefits are received in the form of Arbeitslosengeld II, also called Hartz IV, which distributes social payments to people without an income who cannot work to make a living. Since January 2023 though, Arbeitlosengeld has been replaced by Bürgergeld, since this is a new transition, it is still possible that people will still refer to the benefits as Arbeitlosengeld or Hartz IV.

Graph and download economic data for Unemployment Rate - Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance Occupations (LNU04032222) from Jan 2000 to Jun 2025 about natural resources, occupation, 16 years +, construction, household survey, unemployment, rate, and USA.

Unemployment Rate in Russia decreased to 2.20 percent in May from 2.30 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - Russia Unemployment Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

United States Unemployment Rate: Natural Resources, Construction & Maintenance data was reported at 4.800 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 4.600 % for May 2018. United States Unemployment Rate: Natural Resources, Construction & Maintenance data is updated monthly, averaging 7.500 % from Jan 2000 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 222 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20.800 % in Feb 2010 and a record low of 4.000 % in Jul 2000. United States Unemployment Rate: Natural Resources, Construction & Maintenance data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.G018: Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate.

The statistic shows the unemployment rate in Japan from 1999 to 2024. In 2024, the unemployment rate in Japan was at about 2.56 percent. Employment and the economy in Japan Japan is one of the leading countries when it comes to economic key factors; its unemployment rate, for example, is lower than that of other major industrial and emerging countries. The Japanese work ethic is well-known worldwide, it is synonymous with a strong devotion to the company and to the task at hand; competition among co-workers and loyalty to the company are common and encouraged, working hours and over-time work are said to be excessive. The Japanese language even has its own term for sudden death from being overworked – “Karoshi”. After the devastating effects of World War II, Japan managed to recover economically and even earn a prominent role among other leading economic powers – a fact which is probably partly due to this attitude towards work and employment. Today, Japan is among the leading import countries worldwide, as well as the leading export countries worldwide. Additionally, Japan is one of the 20 countries with the largest proportion of the global domestic product, and also among the 20 countries with the largest gross domestic product per capita, even though it is also ranked tenth among the leading countries with the largest population.

The unemployment rate in Singapore raised to around 4.1 percent in 2020 from 3.1 percent in the year before. For many economies, this would be considered overemployment, but Singapore may have a lower natural unemployment rate than other economies.

What’s wrong with overemployment?

When there are not enough workers, firms are forced to hire anyone who is available. This means that employers may not select the best applicants but rather anyone who applies. This leads to lower productivity, because workers are not finding the job for which they are best suited. Companies may also have to offer wages that are so high that they also lead to a rise in prices and thus, to a higher inflation.

Singapore may be different

Singapore has a small, open economy. It has the highest gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the region, indicating that it is an advanced economy. This is largely due to the small population, which is almost entirely urban. As such, its workforce may be better matched to employer needs, which would reduce the natural level of unemployment.

Graph and download economic data for Unemployment Rate - Native Born (LNU04073413) from Jan 2007 to May 2025 about native born, 16 years +, household survey, unemployment, rate, and USA.

The statistic depicts the unemployment rate in Mexico from 1999 to 2024. In 2024, Mexico's unemployment rate was around 2.71 percent. Mexico's population Mexico is the third largest country in North America. Mexico’s economy has developed and improved over the years, partially due to a better relationship with the United States. Mexico’s total population was estimated to amount to around 120 million people in 2014, with the majority, i.e. more than 60 percent, having a Mestizo background. Despite a remarkably high migration flow between Mexico and the United States, with more than 11.5 million Mexican migrants living in the United States, Mexico’s population is still growing at a constant rate. In addition, life expectancy in Mexico is increasing, pointing towards an improvement of living conditions. However, the high total population numbers affect the population density. In 2012, there were more than 62 inhabitants per square kilometer registered, ten more than a decade ago. This trend is most likely to increase but not worriyngly so, since Mexico is still far from being one of the countries with the highest population density . Among the Mexican metropolises, Mexico City has the highest number of residents by far.

Unemployment Rate in Japan remained unchanged at 2.50 percent in May. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Japan Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

In the period from 2014 to 2024, the unemployment rate in Finland reached a peak of 9.6 percent in 2015 and, since then decreased rather steadily until 2020. In 2024, the unemployment rate was at 8.4 percent.