Empirical analyses of Cagan’s money demand schedule for hyper-inflation have largely ignored the explosive nature of hyper-inflationary data. It is argued that this contributes to an (i) inability to model the data to the end of the hyper-inflation, and to (ii) discrepancies between “estimated” and “actual” inflation tax. Using data from the extreme Yugoslavian hyper-inflation it is shown that a linear analysis of levels of prices and money fails in addressing these issues even when the explosiveness is taken into account. The explanation is that log real money has random walk behaviour while the growth of log prices is explosive. A simple solution to these issues is found by replacing the conventional measure of inflation by the cost of holding money.

Inflation can cause costly misallocations of resources as consumers seek to protect the purchasing power of their nominal assets. This research deals with the nature of these distortions, known as "shoe-leather costs," in a model where the demand for money is motivated by a shopping-time constraint. While the estimates of the shoe-leather costs of long-run inflation (implied by this model) are generally consistent with previous studies, the research shows that the transition between inflation rates can involve dynamics that alter the nature of these welfare effects. Specifically, the benefits of a disinflation policy are mitigated by the gradual adjustment of the economy in response to a lower inflation rate. This transition can be particularly protracted when there is uncertainty about the credibility of the disinflation policy.

Between January 2018 and June 2025, the United Kingdom's consumer price inflation rate showed notable volatility. The rate hit its lowest point at *** percent in August 2020 and peaked at *** percent in October 2022. By September 2024, inflation had moderated to *** percent, but the following months saw inflation increase again, and it remained on a slightly upward trajectory in the first half of 2025. The Bank of England's interest rate policy closely tracked these inflationary trends. Rates remained low at -* percent until April 2020, when they were reduced to *** percent in response to economic challenges. A series of rate increases followed, reaching a peak of **** percent from August 2023 to July 2024. The central bank then initiated rate cuts in August and November 2024, lowering the rate to **** percent, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. In February 2025, the Bank of England implemented another rate cut, setting the bank rate at *** percent, which was further reduced to **** percent in May 2025. Global context of inflation and interest rates The UK's experience reflects a broader international trend of rising inflation and subsequent central bank responses. From January 2022 to July 2024, advanced and emerging economies alike increased their policy rates to counter inflationary pressures. However, a shift began in late 2024, with many countries, including the UK, starting to lower rates. This change suggests a potential new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Comparison with other major economies The UK's monetary policy decisions align closely with those of other major economies. The United States, for instance, saw its federal funds rate peak at **** percent in August 2023, mirroring the UK's rate trajectory. Similarly, central bank rates in the EU all increased drastically between 2022 and 2024. These synchronized movements reflect the global nature of inflationary pressures and the coordinated efforts of central banks to maintain economic stability. As with the UK, both the U.S. and EU began considering rate cuts in late 2024, signaling a potential shift in the global economic landscape.

Nigeria’s inflation has been higher than the average for African and Sub-Saharan countries for years now, and even exceeded 16 percent in 2017 – and a real, significant decrease is nowhere in sight. The bigger problem is its unsteadiness, however: An inflation rate that is bouncing all over the place, like this one, is usually a sign of a struggling economy, causing prices to fluctuate, and unemployment and poverty to increase. Nigeria’s economy - a so-called “mixed economy”, which means the market economy is at least in part regulated by the state – is not entirely in bad shape, though. More than half of its GDP is generated by the services sector, namely telecommunications and finances, and the country derives a significant share of its state revenues from oil.

Because it got high

To simplify: When the inflation rate rises, so do prices, and consequently banks raise their interest rates as well to cope and maintain their profit margin. Higher interest rates often cause unemployment to rise. In certain scenarios, rising prices can also mean more panicky spending and consumption among end users, causing debt and poverty. The extreme version of this is called hyperinflation: A rapid increase of prices that is out of control and leads to bankruptcies en masse, devaluation of money and subsequently a currency reform, among other things. But does that mean that low inflation is better? Maybe, but only to a certain degree; the ECB, for example, aspires to maintain an inflation rate of about two percent so as to keep the economy stable. As soon as we reach deflation territory, however, things are starting to look grim again. The best course is a stable inflation rate, to avoid uncertainty and rash actions.

Nigeria today

Nigeria is one of the countries with the largest populations worldwide and also the largest economy in Africa, with its economy growing rapidly after a slump in the aforementioned year 2017. It is slated to be one of the countries with the highest economic growth over the next few decades. Demographic key indicators, like infant mortality rate, fertility rate, and the median age of the population, all point towards a bright future. Additionally, the country seems to make big leaps forward in manufacturing and technological developments, and boasts huge natural resources, including natural gas. All in all, Nigeria and its inflation seem to be on the upswing – or on the path to stabilization, as it were.

This scatter chart displays inflation (annual %) against electricity production from natural gas sources (% of total) in Europe. The data is about countries.

United States Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Labour Market: Private Sector Payroll: Natural Resources & Mining data was reported at 0.003 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.003 % for 05 May 2025. United States Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Labour Market: Private Sector Payroll: Natural Resources & Mining data is updated weekly, averaging 0.003 % from Jun 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 259 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.637 % in 17 Feb 2025 and a record low of 0.000 % in 03 Feb 2025. United States Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Labour Market: Private Sector Payroll: Natural Resources & Mining data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Headline.

This scatter chart displays electricity production from natural gas sources (% of total) against inflation (annual %) in Oceania. The data is about countries.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Fuels and Related Products and Power: Residential Natural Gas (WPU0551) from Dec 1990 to Jul 2025 about fuels, gas, residential, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Inflation in the table below is defined as the percent change in the CPI from the same month last year. The first column of numbers shows the latest value available from the national authorities and the next two columns show the levels of annual inflation three months and one year prior to the latest release. The data are updated daily. Over long stretches of time - typically years - inflation is a byproduct of the expansion of money supply. In the short run the inflation rate fluctuates with economic growth as recessions slow down the increase in prices and rapid output growth accelerates it. Shits in exchange rates, commodity prices, and natural phenomena like droughts also have an impact. Over time, however, these factors have only a transitory effect and the only variable that matters is money supply growth. The control of inflation is delegated to central banks that typically try to balance between relatively low inflation and low unemployment. For more, you can read our articles about optimal inflation and the causes of inflation in the short run and the long run.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Fuels and Related Products and Power: Natural Gas to Electric Power (WPS055421) from Jan 1992 to Jul 2025 about fuels, electricity, gas, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

In this thesis I explore dark matter via three avenues: through cosmic inflation, the evolution of primordial black holes, and large scale structure. Each project studies a theoretical framework and works towards observational consequences of dark matter. This is important as a means to distinguish between the various proposed candidates of dark matter. First, I explore the paradigm of warm natural inflation (WNI), an inflationary paradigm in which the primordial field generates a thermal bath. Through this theoretically well motivated model, I am able to show that not only does it satisfy constraints from the cosmic microwave background, it is able to generate enough primordial black holes to explain dark matter. Additionally, I show that the generation of scalar induced gravitational waves (SIGWs) through this process will be detectable by future observations. Second, I explore the hierarchical merging or coagulation of primordial black holes through multiple generations. Specifically, I study the conditions necessary to trigger runaway merging. This is done via a GPU accelerated coagulation code. I find that for asteroid mass black holes, no significant merging occurs and it behaves similar to cold dark matter. Finally, I explore large scale structure finding methods via machine learning (ML) tools, with a focus on identifying cosmic voids. The identification of voids is important as a possible means to constrain the time dependence of dark energy. I use a Kmeans clustering algorithm to segment cosmic structures and find it segments voids similar to other structure finders. I then train a UNET neural network to predict void finding at higher redshifts and achieve moderate accuracy, with accuracy generally decaying at higher redshifts. I then finally build a pipeline to extract the surfaces of the void-like regions using Connected Component Labeling (CCL) and the Marching Cubes algorithm.

United States Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Labour Market: Private Sector Payroll: Natural Resources & Mining data was reported at 0.203 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.203 % for 05 May 2025. United States Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Labour Market: Private Sector Payroll: Natural Resources & Mining data is updated weekly, averaging 0.058 % from Apr 2018 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 369 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 43.952 % in 13 May 2019 and a record low of 0.000 % in 11 Dec 2023. United States Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Labour Market: Private Sector Payroll: Natural Resources & Mining data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Core.

CPI: Weights: Food: Confectionery: Sweets: Chocolate: Natural & with Additives data was reported at 0.370 % in 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.378 % for 2018. CPI: Weights: Food: Confectionery: Sweets: Chocolate: Natural & with Additives data is updated yearly, averaging 0.389 % from Dec 2012 (Median) to 2019, with 8 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.428 % in 2016 and a record low of 0.370 % in 2019. CPI: Weights: Food: Confectionery: Sweets: Chocolate: Natural & with Additives data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal State Statistics Service. The data is categorized under Russia Premium Database’s Inflation – Table RU.IA027: Consumer Price Index: Weights.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Industry: Natural Gas Distribution: to Electric Power (PCU221210221210115) from Dec 1990 to Jul 2025 about distributive, electricity, gas, PPI, industry, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

This scatter chart displays electricity production from natural gas sources (% of total) against inflation (annual %). The data is about countries.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Industry: Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction: Natural Gas (from the Wellhead) (PCU2111112111113) from Dec 1975 to Jan 2025 about extraction, petroleum, crude, gas, PPI, industry, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Fifty years ago, Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was composed of two sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy. Second, there is no long-run trade-off between the deviation of unemployment from the natural rate and inflation. Both propositions have been challenged. The paper reviews the arguments and the macro and micro evidence against each. It concludes that, in each case, the evidence is suggestive, but not conclusive. Policymakers should keep the natural rate hypothesis as their null hypothesis, but keep an open mind and put some weight on the alternatives.

Brazil Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Energy Prices: Consumer Fuel Price: Compressed Natural Gas: Average data was reported at 0.080 % in 12 May 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.234 % for 05 May 2025. Brazil Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Energy Prices: Consumer Fuel Price: Compressed Natural Gas: Average data is updated weekly, averaging 4.430 % from Jun 2016 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 465 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 34.816 % in 31 Jul 2023 and a record low of 0.080 % in 12 May 2025. Brazil Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Energy Prices: Consumer Fuel Price: Compressed Natural Gas: Average data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Brazil – Table BR.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Headline.

Russia Consumer Price Index (CPI): Weights: Services: HU: Utilities Services: Natural Gas Supply data was reported at 0.800 % in 2019. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.780 % for 2018. Russia Consumer Price Index (CPI): Weights: Services: HU: Utilities Services: Natural Gas Supply data is updated yearly, averaging 0.770 % from Dec 2012 (Median) to 2019, with 8 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.822 % in 2014 and a record low of 0.707 % in 2012. Russia Consumer Price Index (CPI): Weights: Services: HU: Utilities Services: Natural Gas Supply data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal State Statistics Service. The data is categorized under Russia Premium Database’s Inflation – Table RU.IA027: Consumer Price Index: Weights.

Russia Consumer Price Index (CPI): Same Mth PY=100: Fish Products: Fish Tins: Natural & with Oil data was reported at 103.350 Same Mth PY=100 in Dec 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 103.770 Same Mth PY=100 for Nov 2018. Russia Consumer Price Index (CPI): Same Mth PY=100: Fish Products: Fish Tins: Natural & with Oil data is updated monthly, averaging 108.780 Same Mth PY=100 from Jan 1995 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 288 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 300.040 Same Mth PY=100 in Jan 1995 and a record low of 100.780 Same Mth PY=100 in Jul 1998. Russia Consumer Price Index (CPI): Same Mth PY=100: Fish Products: Fish Tins: Natural & with Oil data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal State Statistics Service. The data is categorized under Russia Premium Database’s Inflation – Table RU.IA014: Consumer Price Index: Same Month Previous Year=100: Food.