Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Nov 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

United States NBER: Recorded Recession data was reported at 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for Sep 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data is updated monthly, averaging 0.000 Unit from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in Jun 2009 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability. An interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.

United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 13 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 62256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 15 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (USRECQM) from Q4 1854 to Q3 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

View quarterly updates and historical trends for NBER-based US Recession Indicators from the Period following the Peak through the Trough. from United Sta…

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in December of 1854. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

United States NBER-Based Recession Indi frm the Pd ff the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 30 Nov 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 29 Nov 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indi frm the Pd ff the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.042 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 30 Nov 2025, with 62456 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.180 Unit in 07 Oct 2025 and a record low of 0.003 Unit in 16 Feb 2020. United States NBER-Based Recession Indi frm the Pd ff the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

The National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works. The NBER is committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community. Over the years the NBER's research agenda has encompassed a wide variety of issues that confront our society. Early research focused on the aggregate economy, examining in detail the business cycle and long-term economic growth. Simon Kuznets' pioneering work on national income accounting, Wesley Mitchell's influential study of the business cycle, and Milton Friedman's research on the demand for money and the determinants of consumer spending were among the early studies done at the NBER. The NBER is the nation's leading nonprofit economic research organization. Twenty Nobel Prize winners in Economics and thirteen past chairs of the President's Council of Economic Advisers have been researchers at the NBER. The more than 1,100 professors of economics and business now teaching at colleges and universities in North America who are NBER researchers are the leading scholars in their fields. These Bureau associates concentrate on four types of empirical research: developing new statistical measurements, estimating quantitative models of economic behavior, assessing the economic effects of public policies, and projecting the effects of alternative policy proposals.

This paper evaluates the ability of a statistical regime-switching model to identify turning points in United States economic activity in real time. The authors work with a Markov-switching model fit to real Gross Domestic Product and employment data that, when estimated on the entire postwar sample, provides a chronology of business cycle peak and trough dates close to that produced by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Next, they investigate how accurately and quickly the model would have identified NBER-dated turning points had it been used in real time for the past 40 years. In general, the model identifies turning point dates in real time that are close to the NBER dates. For both business cycle peaks and troughs, the model provides systematic improvement over the NBER in the speed at which turning points are identified. Importantly, the model achieves this with few instances of "false positives." Overall, the evidence suggests that the regime-switching model could be a useful supplement to the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee for establishing turning point dates.

NBER based Recession Indi from the Peak Through the Trough在2025-05-14达0.000单位，相较于2025-05-13的0.000单位保持不变。NBER based Recession Indi from the Peak Through the Trough数据按每日更新，1854-12-01至2025-05-14期间平均值为0.000单位，共62256份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于2020-04-15，达1.000单位，而历史最低值则出现于2025-05-14，为0.000单位。CEIC提供的NBER based Recession Indi from the Peak Through the Trough数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis，数据归类于Global Database的美国 – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators。

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

Context

The dataset was created to predict market recession as inspired by assignment notebook in an online course, Python and Machine Learning for Asset Management by Edhec Business School, on Coursera. However, I aimed at doing this exercise for Indian economy but due to lack of monthly data for most indicators, I used FRED database similarly used in the course.

Content

The time period chosen is 1996-2020 according to most data available.

Acknowledgements

1. Python and Machine Learning for Asset Management by EDHEC Business School, www.coursera.org for recession period data formed according to NBER. 2.FRED, fred.stloiusfed.org for macro-economic indicator data
2. Business cycle dating, www.nber.org
3. Yahoo Finance for stock market data
4. Macrotrends.net for PE ratio
5. quandl.com for snp dividend yield

Inspiration

This dataset is inspired by the assignment notebook in the online course mentioned to predict market recession for portfolio management.

NBER：已记录的衰退在10-01-2018达0.000单位，相较于09-01-2018的0.000单位保持不变。NBER：已记录的衰退数据按月更新，01-01-1959至10-01-2018期间平均值为0.000单位，共718份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于06-01-2009，达1.000单位，而历史最低值则出现于10-01-2018，为0.000单位。CEIC提供的NBER：已记录的衰退数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of New York，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – 表US.S021：衰退可能性。

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Sep 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

This paper presents a new nonlinear time series model that captures a post-recession bounce-back in the level of aggregate output. While a number of studies have examined this type of business cycle asymmetry using recession-based dummy variables and threshold models, we relate the bounce-back effect to an endogenously estimated unobservable Markov-switching state variable. When the model is applied to US real GDP, we find that the Markov-switching regimes are closely related to NBER-dated recessions and expansions. Also, the Markov-switching form of nonlinearity is statistically significant and the bounce-back effect is large, implying that the permanent effects of recessions are small. Meanwhile, having accounted for the bounce-back effect, we find little or no remaining serial correlation in the data, suggesting that our model is sufficient to capture the defining features of US business cycle dynamics. When the model is applied to other countries, we find larger permanent effects of recessions.

We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyse the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, non-parametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and non-parametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real-time analysis.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Euro Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (EUROREC) from Mar 1960 to Aug 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, Euro Area, and Europe.

We use natural language processing methods to quantify the sentiment expressed in the Federal Reserve's anecdotal summaries of current economic conditions in the national and 12 Federal Reserve District-level economies as published eight times per year in the Beige Book since 1970. We document that both national and District-level economic sentiment tend to rise and fall with the US business cycle. But economic sentiment is extremely heterogeneous across Districts, and we find that national economic sentiment is not always the simple aggregation of District-level sentiment. We show that the heterogeneity in District-level economic sentiment can be used, over and above the information contained in national economic sentiment, to better forecast US recessions.

Japan The Reference Dates of Business Cycle: By Month data was reported at 0.000 Unit in Apr 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for Mar 2025. Japan The Reference Dates of Business Cycle: By Month data is updated monthly, averaging 0.000 Unit from Jun 1951 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 887 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in May 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in Apr 2025. Japan The Reference Dates of Business Cycle: By Month data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Economic and Social Research Institute. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Japan – Table JP.S095: Business-Cycle Dating. An interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United Kingdom from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (GBRRECDM) from 1955-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and United Kingdom.