As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury Long-Term Average (Over 10 Years), Inflation-Indexed (DLTIIT) from 2000-01-03 to 2025-06-25 about TIPS, long-term, Treasury, yield, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS3MO) from 1981-09-01 to 2025-06-25 about bills, 3-month, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

As of December 2024, all United Kingdom government debt securities were returning positive yields, regardless of maturity. This places the yield of both UK short term bonds and long term bonds above that of major countries like Germany, France and Japan, but lower than the United States. What are government bonds? Government bonds are debt instruments where a certain amount of money is given to the issuer, in exchange for regular payments of interest over a fixed period. At the end of this period the issuer then returns the amount in full. Bonds differ from a regular loan through how they can be traded on financial markets once issued. This ability to trade bonds makes it more complex to measure the return investors receive from bonds, as the price they buy a bond for on the market may differ from the price the same bond was initially issued at. The yield is therefore calculated as what investors can expect to receive based on current market prices paid for the bond, not the value it was issued at. In total, UK government debt amounted to over 2.4 trillion British pounds in 2023 – with the majority being comprised of different types of UK government bonds. Why are inverted yield curves important? UK government bond yields over recent years have taken on a typical shape, with short term bonds having a lower yield than bonds with a maturity of 10 to 20 years. The higher yield of longer-term bonds compensates investors for the higher level of uncertainty in the future. However, if investors are sufficiently worried about both a short term economic decline, and low long term growth, they may prefer to purchase short term bonds in order to secure assets with regular interest payments in the here and now (as opposed to shares, which can lose a lot of value in a short time). This can lead to an inverted yield curve, where shorter term debt has a higher yield. Inverted yield curves are generally seen as a reliable indicator of a recession, with inverted yields occurring before most recent U.S. recessions. The major exception to this is the recession from the coronavirus pandemic – but even then, U.S. yield curves came perilously close to being inverted in mid-2019.

The yield on Germany 10Y Bond Yield eased to 2.51% on June 20, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.14 points, though it remains 0.10 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

Interactive chart showing the daily 10 year treasury yield back to 1962. The 10 year treasury is the benchmark used to decide mortgage rates across the U.S. and is the most liquid and widely traded bond in the world.

The benchmark interest rate in Norway was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Norway Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.83% on June 27, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.15 points, though it remains 0.27 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The yield on India 10Y Bond Yield eased to 6.36% on June 26, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.11 points, though it remains 0.64 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. India 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for India (INDIRLTLT01STM) from Dec 2011 to Apr 2025 about long-term, India, 10-year, bonds, yield, interest rate, interest, and rate.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield rose to 1.44% on June 27, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.08 points, though it remains 0.39 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.32% on June 27, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.07 points, though it remains 0.19 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The yield on Australia 10Y Bond Yield rose to 4.18% on June 27, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.16 points and is 0.17 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The yield on United Kingdom 10Y Bond Yield rose to 4.50% on June 27, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.23 points, though it remains 0.32 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. UK 10 Year Gilt Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.65% on June 27, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.06 points and is 0.56 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

The benchmark interest rate in Brazil was last recorded at 15 percent. This dataset provides - Brazil Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Saudi Arabia was last recorded at 5 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Saudi Arabia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.