Since early 2021, inflation has consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. Using a combination of data, economic theory, and narrative information around historical events, we empirically assess what has caused persistently elevated inflation. Our estimates suggest that both aggregate demand and supply factors, including supply chain disruptions, have contributed significantly to high inflation.

The travel price index (TPI) published by the U.S. Travel Association includes data on the changes in the consumer price index (CPI) of travel and tourism services in the United States, such as airline fares, lodging, and recreation. In 2023, the TPI went up by 2.5 percent compared to the previous year, while the CPI experienced year-over-year growth of 4.1 percent. As forecast, the TPI and CPI are expected to increase by 1.3 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, in 2024 over the previous year.

This Economic Commentary provides an overview of several frictions and the channels through which they affect economic welfare under elevated trend inflation above 2 percent. These frictions, associated with financial transactions, price and wage stickiness, and cognitive limitations, suggest that inflation imposes significant costs on society. Higher inflation may lead to a steeper Phillips curve, a situation which increases the volatility of inflation and interest rates.

In an August 2025 survey on domestic travel in the United Kingdom, 22 percent of respondents planned to spend less on eating out during domestic overnight trips in the next six months due to the cost of living crisis. Choosing cheaper accommodation and looking for more free activities were other popular strategies planned by domestic travelers for saving money.

In case prices for goods and services go up significantly in 2023, over ** percent of consumers around the world said they would shop less in general and cut down on spending as a response. A fifth of survey respondents said they would look for and purchase cheaper and better value products. Less than **** percent of those surveyed worldwide believed inflation would be unlikely to impact their habits. What does inflation look like? The world entered a new inflation crisis in 2021, driven by a confluence of factors including the COVID-19 pandemic which restricted global supply chains, and the Russian-Ukraine war which exacerbated food and energy shortages. In 2022, global inflation hit **** percent, the highest annual increase in decades. The rate of inflation is estimated to remain high in the near future, at around *** percent in 2023 and *** percent in 2024. Inflation dominated the list of most important problems facing the world according to a survey conducted in October 2023 – leading ahead of poverty and social inequality, crime and violence, and unemployment. In a global consumer trends survey, the majority of respondents said that inflation impacted them completely or a lot – for instance, ***** in ** respondents in the United States admitted they had been seriously impacted. Inflation’s impact on the holidays The end-of-year holiday season is typically regarded as a period of increased retail spending, driven by a series of major shopping events such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday, as well as the public holidays Thanksgiving and Christmas. However, inflation has put a damper on the holiday cheer, with consumers expressing their intentions to cut back spending amid the cost-of-living crisis. In 2022, a significant share of consumers in Europe said they planned to cut at least some related expenses. In fact, ** percent of respondents in the United Kingdom planned to cut all expenses related to Black Friday and Christmas.

Abstract The purpose of this study was to empirically verify the existence or not of a distortion in the comparability of information when inflationary effects are omitted from financial statements. Although inflation has been under control in Brazil since the Plano Real, with indices well below those recorded in the 1980s and 1990s, discussing the need for accounting recognition of the effects of inflation remains an extremely relevant and pertinent issue in light of the proposal of accounting to produce faithful information that closely reflects the economic reality in which organizations operate. The results of the research show that financial accounting has been directly affected by the omission of inflationary effects in financial statements, drawing attention to the negative effects this has caused on the quality of the information produced. In order to operationalize the research, the Balance Sheet Monetary Correction (BSMC) was applied to the balance sheets of Brazilian companies from the siderurgical and metallurgical sector listed on the BM&FBOVESPA in the period from 1996 to 2016. Based on the variables net income, return on equity (ROE), and return on assets (ROA), and two conceptual axes of comparability (between entities and between periods), the statistical parameters were developed and the hypotheses were defined, which were tested using the Student t parametric test. This article shows the damage caused to the decision-making process of the external users for whom financial statements are intended when these are prepared neglecting the effects of inflation. This is verifiable through the analyses of the results obtained, including the observation of significant distortions between the means of the corrected indicators and the means of the historical indicators, such as in the case of net income in 2001, 2002, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016 (33.98%, 91.92%, -65.54%, -30.01%, -53.59%, and 26.30% variation, respectively), of ROE (-67.16%, -61.43%, -53.06%, -63.46%, -133.81%, and 65.00% variations in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, and 2015, respectively), and of ROA (-26,70%, -41.14%, -33,34%, -43,49%, 98,83%, and -413,68% in 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2014, respectively).

Inflation Rate in Russia decreased to 7.70 percent in October from 8 percent in September of 2025. This dataset provides - Russia Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

According to a recent survey conducted in Vietnam, as of January 2023, over ** percent of respondents reported that inflation had a negative impact on them to some degree. In contrast, around **** percent of respondents said inflation did not have a negative effect on them.

We study how the co-movement of inflation and economic activity affects real interest rates and the likelihood of debt crises. First, we show that for advanced economies, periods with procyclical inflation are associated with lower real interest rates. Procyclical inflation implies that nominal bonds pay out more in bad times, making them a good hedge against aggregate risk. However, such procyclicality also increases sovereign default risk when the economy deteriorates, since the government needs to make larger (real) payments. In order to evaluate both effects, we develop a model of sovereign default on domestic nominal debt with exogenous inflation risk and domestic risk-averse lenders. Countercyclical inflation is a substitute with default, while procyclical inflation is a complement with it, by increasing default incentives. In good times, when default is unlikely, procyclical inflation yields lower real rates. In bad times, as default becomes more material, procyclical inflation can magnify default risk and trigger an increase in real rates.

In 2024, Japan had an average inflation rate of 2.74 percent. Japan's inflation rate had hit a record high in 2023 at 3.27 percent, marking the highest rate of inflation in Japan in recent times. However, this figure was still very low compared to most other major economies, such as Japan's fellow G7 members, four of which had inflation rates around six or seven percent in 2023 due to the global inflation crisis. Why is Japan's inflation rate lower? There are a number of contributing factors to Japan's relatively low inflation rate, even during economic crises. Japan eased its Covid restrictions more slowly than most other major economies, this prevented post-pandemic consumer spending that may have driven inflation through supply chain issues caused by higher demand. As the majority of Japan's food and energy comes from overseas, and has done so for decades, the government has mechanisms in place to prevent energy and wheat prices from rising too quickly. Because of this, Japan was able to shield its private sector from many of the negative knock on effects from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which had a significant impact on both sectors globally. Persistent deflation and national debt An additional factor that has eased the impact of inflation on Japan's economy is the fact that it experienced deflation before the pandemic. Deflation has been a persistent problem in Japan since the asset price bubble burst in 1992, and has been symptomatic of Japan's staggering national debt thereafter. For almost 30 years, a combination of quantitative easing, low interest rates (below 0.5 percent since 1995, and at -0.1% since 2016), and a lack of spending due to low wages and an aging population have combined to give Japan the highest national debt in the world in absolute terms, and second-highest debt in relation to its GDP, after Venezuela. Despite this soaring debt, Japan remains the fourth-largest economy in the world, behind the U.S., China, and Germany.

We investigate the effect of energy price shocks on agriculture, industry, and service sector productivity and food, transport, and housing inflation in South Africa from 2008:Q1 to 2023:Q4. Different measures of energy price shocks are generated, and the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analysis within the Structural Vector Autoregression environment are used to analyze the data. The IRF shows that energy price shocks have a significant and positive short-term effect on agricultural productivity, an insignificant effect on industrial sector productivity, and a significant and negative short-term effect on service sector productivity in South Africa. In addition, the results reveal that energy shocks have significant and positive short-term effects on food and transport inflation and significant and negative short-term effects on housing inflation in South Africa. Moreover, the FEVD results show that energy shocks explain more volatility in agricultural productivity, service productivity, and housing inflation. Therefore, we recommend, among others, that policymakers develop and implement policy measures to prevent the adverse effect of energy price shocks on the service sector and food and transport inflation.

Results of post estimation diagnostic and stability tests.

Unit root tests for stationarity–GDP and INF.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

Inflation Rate in India decreased to 0.25 percent in October from 1.44 percent in September of 2025. This dataset provides - India Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Food inflation remains higher than measures of overall inflation, and labor markets have been tight. We find that processed food products have driven recent increases in grocery prices, and we argue that labor market tightness affects the prices of these labor-intensive products in particular through increases in production and distribution costs. Food inflation at grocery stores could remain elevated if price pressures on the supply side persist and demand for food at home remains strong.

Economic welfare is essential in the modern economy since it directly reflects the standard of living, distribution of resources, and general social satisfaction, which influences individual and social well-being. This study aims to explore the relationship between national income accounting different attributes and the economic welfare in Pakistan. However, this study used data from 1950 to 2022, and data was downloaded from the World Bank data portal. Regression analysis is used to investigate the relationship between them and is very effective in measuring the relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables. Moreover, generalized methods of movement (GMM) are used as the robustness of the regression. Our results show that foreign direct investment outflow, Gross domestic product growth rate, GDP per capita, higher Interest, market capitalization, and population growth have a significant negative on the unemployment rate, indicating the rise in these factors leads to a decrease in the employment rate in Pakistan. Trade and savings have a significant positive impact on the unemployment rate, indicating the rise in these factors leads to an increase in the unemployment rate for various reasons. Moreover, all the factors of national income accounting have a significant positive relationship with life expectancy, indicating that an increase in these factors leads to an increase in economic welfare and life expectancy due to better health facilities, many resources, and correct economic policies. However, foreign direct investment, inflation rate, lending interest rate, and population growth have significant positive effects on age dependency, indicating these factors increase the age dependency. Moreover, GDP growth and GDP per capita negatively impact age dependency. Similarly, all the national income accounting factors have a significant negative relationship with legal rights that leads to decreased legal rights. Moreover, due to better health facilities and health planning, there is a negative significant relationship between national income accounting attributes and motility rate among children. Our study advocated the implications for the policymakers and the government to make policies for the welfare and increase the social factors.

U.S. Economic and Financial Dataset

Dataset Description

This dataset combines historical U.S. economic and financial indicators, spanning the last 50 years, to facilitate time series analysis and uncover patterns in macroeconomic trends. It is designed for exploring relationships between interest rates, inflation, economic growth, stock market performance, and industrial production.

Key Features

• Frequency: Monthly
• Time Period: Last 50 years from Nov-24
• Sources:
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • Yahoo Finance

Dataset Feature Description

1. Interest Rate (Interest_Rate):

   • The effective federal funds rate, representing the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight.

2. Inflation (Inflation):

   • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, an indicator of inflation trends.

3. GDP (GDP):

   • Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the U.S.

4. Unemployment Rate (Unemployment):

   • The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

5. Stock Market Performance (S&P500):

   • Monthly average of the adjusted close price, representing stock market trends.

6. Industrial Production (Ind_Prod):

   • A measure of real output in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Dataset Statistics

1. Total Entries: 599
2. Columns: 6
3. Memory usage: 37.54 kB
4. Data types: float64

Feature Overview

• Columns:
  • Interest_Rate: Monthly Federal Funds Rate (%)
  • Inflation: CPI (All Urban Consumers, Index)
  • GDP: Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars)
  • Unemployment: Unemployment Rate (%)
  • Ind_Prod: Industrial Production Index (2017=100)
  • S&P500: Monthly Average of S&P 500 Adjusted Close Prices

Executive Summary

This project explores the interconnected dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and financial market trends over the past 50 years, leveraging data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Yahoo Finance. The dataset integrates critical variables such as the Federal Funds Rate, Inflation (CPI), Real GDP, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and the S&P 500 Index, providing a holistic view of the U.S. economy and financial markets.

The analysis focuses on uncovering relationships between these variables through time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition. Key findings are included in the Insights section. This project serves as a robust resource for understanding long-term economic trends, policy impacts, and market behavior. It is particularly valuable for students, researchers, policymakers, and financial analysts seeking to connect macroeconomic theory with real-world data.

Potential Use Cases

• Economic Analysis: Examine relationships between interest rates, inflation, GDP, and unemployment.
• Stock Market Prediction: Study how macroeconomic indicators influence stock market trends.
• Time Series Modeling: Perform ARIMA, VAR, or other models to forecast economic trends.
• Cyclic Pattern Analysis: Identify how economic shocks and recoveries impact key indicators.

Snap of Power Analysis

https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/1b40e0ca-7d2e-4fbc-8cfd-df3f09e4fdb8">

To ensure sufficient power, the dataset covers last 50 years of monthly data i.e., around 600 entries.

Key Insights derived through EDA, time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition

• Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The interest Rate and inflation exhibit an inverse relationship, especially during periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Growth and Market Performance: GDP growth and the S&P 500 Index show a positive correlation, reflecting how market performance often aligns with overall economic health.
• Labor Market and Industrial Output: Unemployment and industrial production demonstrate a strong inverse relationship. Higher industrial output is typically associated with lower unemployment
• Market Behavior During Economic Shocks: The S&P 500 experienced sharp declines during significant crises, such as the 2008 financial crash and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These events also triggered increased unemployment and contractions in GDP, highlighting the interplay between markets and the broader economy.
• Correlation Highlights: S&P 500 and GDP have a strong positive correlation. Interest rates negatively correlate with GDP and inflation, reflecting monetary policy impacts. Unemployment is negatively correlated with industrial production but positively correlated with interest rates.

Link to GitHub Repo

https:/...

The narrative approach to macroeconomic identification uses qualitative sources, such as newspapers or government records, to provide information that can help establish causal relationships. This paper discusses the requirements for rigorous narrative analysis using fresh research on the impact of monetary policy as the focal application. We read the historical minutes and transcripts of Federal Reserve policymaking meetings to identify significant contractionary and expansionary changes in monetary policy not taken in response to current or prospective developments in real activity for the period 1946 to 2016. We find that such monetary shocks have large and significant effects on unemployment, output, and inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely occurred in 2022. Based on the empirical estimates of the effect of previous shocks, one would expect substantial negative impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024.

When deciding on how to estimate future prices, due to influences that are likely to affect a product, we should consider two factors: the expected inflation and the real price change. The rate of real price change allows us to plot a trend line based on time series reflecting existing or past market price, that is, on "facts". Usually, many potential users are not going to use sophisticated forecasting techniques to estimate future prices, preferring to rely on simple approximation techniques. If acceptable time price series is available, then the simplest approach is to evidence a trend line over time that can be extended into the future. This can be done with regression analysis. In working with historical data, we could arrive at a medium-term trend estimate, which excludes the effects of inflation. Although the real price of forest products does not usually vary in an exponential way, the normal practice in investment analyses is often simplified by compounding price using a real price change rate. We can get the annual rate of real price change (r) from a linearized model that allows us to keep the statistical robustness of a linear regression model (with statistics, confidence indicators and tests), but applying the compound rate approach used in mathematics of finance. To do that, the well-known basic formula for compounding Pn=P0 (1+r)^n, where: Pn = estimated price in year n P0= price in year 0 r = annual rate of real price change (the real compound rate) n = number of years from year 0

is transformed into that of a straight line by making a change of variables (linearization).

The proposed method is easy to reproduce and seems more orthodox than apply projections made using a simple straight-line model. Even though the straight-line represents an average variation over the years, from a mathematics of finance approach we should discuss price variation in terms of the annual compound rate. In Figure 1, you can see the differences between these approaches. If we have a clear trend in past real prices and the likelihood of a real price variation, we could make future price assumptions. If you agree with this statement and believe that price trend based on historical patterns is a significative information, then you should use r value gotten from the linearized model here proposed to project the price according to the previous compounding equation, where P0 is any real price calculated through the linearized compounding model (Table I). In Catalonia, most of forest products prices have not kept up with inflation and reflect a declining trend. A few others have just barely kept up with inflation. This is means that, despite moderate growth in nominal terms, the real price of almost all Catalan forest products presents a negative trend. For example, Scots pine sawlogs -the most representative harvested species in Catalonia (the 27% of the total volume yearly logged)- have dropped by an average of almost 2% per year since 1980.