Australia Net Migration data was reported at 138,510.000 Person in 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 140,232.000 Person for 2023. Australia Net Migration data is updated yearly, averaging 108,852.000 Person from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2024, with 65 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 275,773.000 Person in 2008 and a record low of 23,833.000 Person in 1993. Australia Net Migration data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Net migration is the net total of migrants during the period, that is, the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants, including both citizens and noncitizens.;United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2024 Revision.;Sum;

Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Western Australia data was reported at 11,564.000 Person in Sep 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 7,957.000 Person for Jun 2024. Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Western Australia data is updated quarterly, averaging 3,972.000 Person from Jun 1981 (Median) to Sep 2024, with 174 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20,995.000 Person in Mar 2023 and a record low of -2,317.000 Person in Sep 2020. Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Western Australia data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.G003: Population Change.

Net overseas migration (NOM) is the net gain or loss of population through immigration to Australia and emigration from Australia. This dataset contains annual NOM estimates by age and sex at the state/territory and Australia level.

This dataset presents the estimates of the internal and overseas migration statistics of Australia by age by Statistical Area Level 4 (SA4) following the 2016 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). The dataset spans from the 2016-17 financial year up to the 2019-20 financial year. Overseas migration is the movement of people from overseas to Australia's sub-state areas and vice-versa. It cannot be directly measured and is estimated by breaking down overseas migrant arrivals and departures at the state level to sub-state areas, using information from the most recent Census. The state-level overseas migration data is sourced from Department of Home Affairs processing systems, visa information, and incoming passenger cards, and is published in National, state and territory population. Internal migration is the movement of people across a specified boundary within Australia involving a change in place of usual residence. It cannot be directly measured and is instead estimated using administrative data. The movement of people between and within Australia's states and territories cannot be directly measured and is estimated using administrative data. Internal migration is estimated based on a combination of Census data (usual address one year ago), Medicare change of address data (provided by Services Australia), and Department of Defence records (for military personnel only). The Medicare source data is assigned to a state or territory and GCCSA for a person's departure and arrival locations, based on the postcodes of their residential addresses as registered with Medicare. Postcodes are assigned wholly to a state/territory and GCCSA based on best fit. Where a postcode is split across areas, it is assigned to the area that contains the majority of that postcode's population. For more information please visit the Regional population methodology. AURIN has spatially enabled the original data.

Australia Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Victoria data was reported at 24,375.000 Person in Sep 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 17,504.000 Person for Jun 2024. Australia Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Victoria data is updated quarterly, averaging 8,892.000 Person from Jun 1981 (Median) to Sep 2024, with 174 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 50,020.000 Person in Mar 2023 and a record low of -20,667.000 Person in Sep 2020. Australia Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Victoria data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.G003: Population Change.

This dataset presents the estimates of the internal and overseas migration statistics of Australia by age by Statistical Area Level 3 (SA3) following the 2016 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). The dataset spans from the 2016-17 financial year up to the 2019-20 financial year. Overseas migration is the movement of people from overseas to Australia's sub-state areas and vice-versa. It cannot be directly measured and is estimated by breaking down overseas migrant arrivals and departures at the state level to sub-state areas, using information from the most recent Census. The state-level overseas migration data is sourced from Department of Home Affairs processing systems, visa information, and incoming passenger cards, and is published in National, state and territory population. Internal migration is the movement of people across a specified boundary within Australia involving a change in place of usual residence. It cannot be directly measured and is instead estimated using administrative data. The movement of people between and within Australia's states and territories cannot be directly measured and is estimated using administrative data. Internal migration is estimated based on a combination of Census data (usual address one year ago), Medicare change of address data (provided by Services Australia), and Department of Defence records (for military personnel only). The Medicare source data is assigned to a state or territory and GCCSA for a person's departure and arrival locations, based on the postcodes of their residential addresses as registered with Medicare. Postcodes are assigned wholly to a state/territory and GCCSA based on best fit. Where a postcode is split across areas, it is assigned to the area that contains the majority of that postcode's population. For more information please visit the Regional population methodology. AURIN has spatially enabled the original data.

This dataset presents the estimates of the internal and overseas migration statistics of Australia by age by Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) following the 2016 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). The dataset spans from the 2016-17 financial year up to the 2019-20 financial year.

Overseas migration is the movement of people from overseas to Australia's sub-state areas and vice-versa. It cannot be directly measured and is estimated by breaking down overseas migrant arrivals and departures at the state level to sub-state areas, using information from the most recent Census. The state-level overseas migration data is sourced from Department of Home Affairs processing systems, visa information, and incoming passenger cards, and is published in National, state and territory population.

Internal migration is the movement of people across a specified boundary within Australia involving a change in place of usual residence. It cannot be directly measured and is instead estimated using administrative data. The movement of people between and within Australia's states and territories cannot be directly measured and is estimated using administrative data. Internal migration is estimated based on a combination of Census data (usual address one year ago), Medicare change of address data (provided by Services Australia), and Department of Defence records (for military personnel only).

The Medicare source data is assigned to a state or territory and GCCSA for a person's departure and arrival locations, based on the postcodes of their residential addresses as registered with Medicare. Postcodes are assigned wholly to a state/territory and GCCSA based on best fit. Where a postcode is split across areas, it is assigned to the area that contains the majority of that postcode's population.

For more information please visit the Regional population methodology.

AURIN has spatially enabled the original data.

This dataset presents the estimates of the internal and overseas migration statistics of Australia by age by Greater Capital City Statistical Area (GCCSA) following the 2016 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). The dataset spans from the 2016-17 financial year up to the 2019-20 financial year. Overseas migration is the movement of people from overseas to Australia's sub-state areas and vice-versa. It cannot be directly measured and is estimated by breaking down overseas migrant arrivals and departures at the state level to sub-state areas, using information from the most recent Census. The state-level overseas migration data is sourced from Department of Home Affairs processing systems, visa information, and incoming passenger cards, and is published in National, state and territory population. Internal migration is the movement of people across a specified boundary within Australia involving a change in place of usual residence. It cannot be directly measured and is instead estimated using administrative data. The movement of people between and within Australia's states and territories cannot be directly measured and is estimated using administrative data. Internal migration is estimated based on a combination of Census data (usual address one year ago), Medicare change of address data (provided by Services Australia), and Department of Defence records (for military personnel only). The Medicare source data is assigned to a state or territory and GCCSA for a person's departure and arrival locations, based on the postcodes of their residential addresses as registered with Medicare. Postcodes are assigned wholly to a state/territory and GCCSA based on best fit. Where a postcode is split across areas, it is assigned to the area that contains the majority of that postcode's population. For more information please visit the Regional population methodology. AURIN has spatially enabled the original data.

This dataset presents the estimates of the internal migration statistics of Australia by Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) following the 2011 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). The dataset spans from the 2006-07 financial year up to the 2015-16 financial year. Regional internal migration is the movement of people from one region to another within Australia (both interstate and intrastate). For example, it incorporates moves from a Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) to any other SA2 within the country. Net regional internal migration is the net gain or loss of population through this movement. The ABS has developed a new series of annual regional internal migration estimates (RIME) based on the 2011 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). The Medicare and Defence data used for estimating interstate migration is now also used to estimate internal migration below the state/territory level. However, as Medicare and Defence change of address counts are supplied to the ABS by postcode a method was developed to convert these counts to SA2, the base spatial unit of the ASGS. The method used correspondences to convert to SA2, and adjustments were applied to account for known deficiencies in the Medicare and Defence data. A similar method was used to prepare RIME at the LGA level, based on 2011 boundaries. This data is Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data (catalogue number: 3412.0) used with permission from the ABS. For more information please visit the ABS Explanatory Notes. Please note: RIME are not directly comparable with estimated resident populations (ERPs) because of the different methods and source data used to prepare each series. The combination of natural increase and net migration (internal and overseas) therefore may not correspond with change in ERP. AURIN has spatially enabled the original data.

Australia Migration Rate: per 1000 Inhabitants: Net data was reported at 3.500 NA in 2100. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.500 NA for 2099. Australia Migration Rate: per 1000 Inhabitants: Net data is updated yearly, averaging 4.400 NA from Jun 1986 (Median) to 2100, with 115 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.000 NA in 2008 and a record low of 1.700 NA in 1993. Australia Migration Rate: per 1000 Inhabitants: Net data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

This dataset presents the estimates of the internal migration statistics of Australia by Greater Capital City Statistical Area (GCCSA) following the 2011 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). The dataset spans from the 2006-07 financial year up to the 2015-16 financial year. Regional internal migration is the movement of people from one region to another within Australia (both interstate and intrastate). For example, it incorporates moves from a GCCSA to any other GCCSA within the country. Net regional internal migration is the net gain or loss of population through this movement. The ABS has developed a new series of annual regional internal migration estimates (RIME) based on the 2011 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). The Medicare and Defence data used for estimating interstate migration is now also used to estimate internal migration below the state/territory level. A similar method was used to prepare RIME at the LGA level, based on 2011 boundaries. This data is Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data (catalogue number: 3412.0) used with permission from the ABS. For more information please visit the ABS Explanatory Notes. Please note: RIME are not directly comparable with estimated resident populations (ERPs) because of the different methods and source data used to prepare each series. The combination of natural increase and net migration (internal and overseas) therefore may not correspond with change in ERP. AURIN has spatially enabled the original data.

This dataset presents the estimates of the internal migration statistics of Australia by Statistical Areas Level 4 (SA4) following the 2011 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). The dataset spans from the 2006-07 financial year up to the 2015-16 financial year. Regional internal migration is the movement of people from one region to another within Australia (both interstate and intrastate). For example, it incorporates moves from a Statistical Area Level 4 (SA4) to any other SA4 within the country. Net regional internal migration is the net gain or loss of population through this movement. The ABS has developed a new series of annual regional internal migration estimates (RIME) based on the 2011 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). The Medicare and Defence data used for estimating interstate migration is now also used to estimate internal migration below the state/territory level. However, as Medicare and Defence change of address counts are supplied to the ABS by postcode a method was developed to convert these counts to SA4, the base spatial unit of the ASGS. The method used correspondences to convert to SA4, and adjustments were applied to account for known deficiencies in the Medicare and Defence data. A similar method was used to prepare RIME at the LGA level, based on 2011 boundaries. This data is Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data (catalogue number: 3412.0) used with permission from the ABS. For more information please visit the ABS Explanatory Notes. Please note: RIME are not directly comparable with estimated resident populations (ERPs) because of the different methods and source data used to prepare each series. The combination of natural increase and net migration (internal and overseas) therefore may not correspond with change in ERP. AURIN has spatially enabled the original data.

Population Change: Net Interstate Migration: Western Australia data was reported at 1,469.000 Person in Sep 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2,411.000 Person for Jun 2024. Population Change: Net Interstate Migration: Western Australia data is updated quarterly, averaging 580.000 Person from Jun 1981 (Median) to Sep 2024, with 174 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5,181.000 Person in Dec 2021 and a record low of -3,669.000 Person in Dec 2016. Population Change: Net Interstate Migration: Western Australia data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.G003: Population Change.

The total population in Australia was estimated at 27.4 million people in 2024, according to the latest census figures and projections from Trading Economics. This dataset provides - Australia Population - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. These projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs), and are projected out from a base population as at 30 June 2022, by age and sex. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032, with results disaggregated by age and sex.

Method The cohort-component method was used for these projections. In this method, the base population is projected forward annually by calculating the effect of births, deaths and migration (the components) within each age-sex cohort according to the specified fertility, mortality and overseas and internal migration assumptions. The projected usual resident population by single year of age and sex was produced in four successive stages – national, state/territory, capital city/rest of state, and finally SA2s. Assumptions were made for each level and the resulting projected components and population are constrained to the geographic level above for each year.
These projections were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory.

Projections – capital city/rest of state regions The base population is 30 June 2022 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as published in National, state and territory population, June 2022. For fertility, the total fertility rate (at the national level) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, of 1.6 babies per woman being phased in from 2022 levels over five years to 2027, before remaining steady for the remainder of the projection span. Observed state/territory, and greater capital city level fertility differentials were applied to the national data so that established trends in the state and capital city/rest of state relativities were preserved. Mortality rates are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that mortality rates will continue to decline across Australia with state/territory differentials persisting. State/territory and capital city/rest of state differentials were used to ensure projected deaths are consistent with the historical trend. Annual net overseas migration (NOM) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with an assumed gain (at the national level) of 400,000 in 2022-23, increasing to 315,000 in 2023-24, then declining to 225,000 in 2026-27, after which NOM is assumed to remain constant. State and capital city/rest of state shares are based on a weighted average of NOM data from 2010 to 2019 at the state and territory level to account for the impact of COVID-19. For internal migration, net gains and losses from states and territories and capital city/rest of state regions are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that net interstate migration will trend towards long-term historic average flows.

Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2 The base population for each SA2 is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. The SA2-level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario state/territory assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with recent fertility and mortality trends in each SA2 based on annual births (by sex) and deaths (by age and sex) published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. Assumed overseas and internal migration for each SA2 is based on SA2-specific annual overseas and internal arrivals and departures estimates published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. The internal migration data was strengthened with SA2-specific data from the 2021 Census, based on the usual residence one year before Census night question. Assumptions were applied by SA2, age and sex. Assumptions were adjusted for some SA2s, to provide more plausible future population levels, and age and sex distribution changes, including areas where populations may not age over time, for example due to significant resident student and defence force populations. Most assumption adjustments were made via the internal migration component. For some SA2s with zero or a very small population base, but where significant population growth is expected, replacement migration age/sex profiles were applied. All SA2-level components and projected projections are constrained to the medium series of capital city/rest of state data in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.

Projections – Local Government Areas The base population for each LGA is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. Projections for 30 June 2023 to 2032 were created by converting from the SA2-level population projections to LGAs by age and sex. This was done using an age-specific population correspondence, where the data for each year of the projection span were converted based on 2021 population shares across SA2s. The LGA and SA2 projections are congruous in aggregation as well as in isolation. Unlike the projections prepared at SA2 level, no LGA-specific projection assumptions were used.

Nature of projections and considerations for usage The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not forecasts, but rather illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars and pandemics, which may affect future demographic behaviour. To illustrate a range of possible outcomes, alternative projection series for national, state/territory and capital city/rest of state areas, using different combinations of fertility, mortality, overseas and internal migration assumptions, are prepared. Alternative series are published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. Only one series of SA2-level projections was prepared for this product. Population projections can take account of planning and other decisions by governments known at the time the projections were derived, including sub-state projections published by each state and territory government. The ABS generally does not have access to the policies or decisions of commonwealth, state and local governments and businesses that assist in accurately forecasting small area populations. Migration, especially internal migration, accounts for the majority of projected population change for most SA2s. Volatile and unpredictable small area migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on longer-term projection results. Care therefore should be taken with SA2s with small total populations and very small age-sex cells, especially at older ages. While these projections are calculated at the single year of age level, small numbers, and fluctuations across individual ages in the base population and projection assumptions limit the reliability of SA2-level projections at single year of age level. These fluctuations reduce and reliability improves when the projection results are aggregated to broader age groups such as the five-year age bands in this product. For areas with small elderly populations, results aggregated to 65 and over are more reliable than for the individual age groups above 65. With the exception of areas with high planned population growth, SA2s with a base total population of less than 500 have generally been held constant for the projection period in this product as their populations are too small to be reliably projected at all, however their (small) age/sex distributions may change slightly. These SA2s are listed in the appendix. The base (2022) SA2 population estimates and post-2022 projections by age and sex include small artificial cells, including 1s and 2s. These are the result of a confidentialisation process and forced additivity, to control SA2 and capital city/rest of state age/sex totals, being applied to their original values. SA2s and LGAs in this product are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) boundaries as at the 2021 Census (ASGS Edition 3). For further information, see Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.

Made possible by the Digital Atlas of Australia The Digital Atlas of Australia is a key Australian Government initiative being led by Geoscience Australia, highlighted in the Data and Digital Government Strategy. It brings together trusted datasets from across government in an interactive, secure, and easy-to-use geospatial platform. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is working in partnership with Geoscience Australia to establish a set of web services to make ABS data available in the Digital Atlas of Australia.

Contact the Australian Bureau of Statistics If you have questions or feedback about this web service, please email geography@abs.gov.au. To subscribe to updates about ABS web services and geospatial products, please complete this form. For information about how the ABS manages any personal information you provide view the ABS privacy policy.

Data and geography references Source data publication: Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base)

Australia Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Tasmania data was reported at 695.000 Person in Sep 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 435.000 Person for Jun 2024. Australia Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Tasmania data is updated quarterly, averaging 216.500 Person from Jun 1981 (Median) to Sep 2024, with 174 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,773.000 Person in Dec 2019 and a record low of -283.000 Person in Sep 2020. Australia Population Change: Net Overseas Migration: Tasmania data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.G003: Population Change.

Net overseas migration (NOM) is the net gain or loss of population through immigration to Australia and emigration from Australia. This dataset contains annual NOM estimates by age and sex at the state/territory and Australia level.

This dataset presents the estimates of the internal migration statistics of Australia by Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) following the 2011 Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). The dataset spans from the 2006-07 financial year up to the 2015-16 financial year.

Regional internal migration is the movement of people from one region to another within Australia (both interstate and intrastate). For example, it incorporates moves from a Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) to any other SA2 within the country. Net regional internal migration is the net gain or loss of population through this movement.

The ABS has developed a new series of annual regional internal migration estimates (RIME) based on the 2011 edition of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). The Medicare and Defence data used for estimating interstate migration is now also used to estimate internal migration below the state/territory level. However, as Medicare and Defence change of address counts are supplied to the ABS by postcode a method was developed to convert these counts to SA2, the base spatial unit of the ASGS. The method used correspondences to convert to SA2, and adjustments were applied to account for known deficiencies in the Medicare and Defence data. A similar method was used to prepare RIME at the LGA level, based on 2011 boundaries.

This data is Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data (catalogue number: 3412.0) used with permission from the ABS.

For more information please visit the ABS Explanatory Notes.

Please note: RIME are not directly comparable with estimated resident populations (ERPs) because of the different methods and source data used to prepare each series. The combination of natural increase and net migration (internal and overseas) therefore may not correspond with change in ERP. AURIN has spatially enabled the original data.

Population projections illustrate how Australia's population will change in the future as a result of certain assumptions. This dataset presents 72 scenarios, comprising combinations of different rates of fertility (x3), mortality (x2), net overseas migration (x4) and net interstate migration (x3).

These population projections were prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for Geoscience Australia. The projections are not official ABS data and are owned by Geoscience Australia. These projections are for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs), and are projected out from a base population as at 30 June 2022, by age and sex. Projections are for 30 June 2023 to 2032, with results disaggregated by age and sex.

Method The cohort-component method was used for these projections. In this method, the base population is projected forward annually by calculating the effect of births, deaths and migration (the components) within each age-sex cohort according to the specified fertility, mortality and overseas and internal migration assumptions. The projected usual resident population by single year of age and sex was produced in four successive stages – national, state/territory, capital city/rest of state, and finally SA2s. Assumptions were made for each level and the resulting projected components and population are constrained to the geographic level above for each year.
These projections were derived from a combination of assumptions published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071 on 23 November 2023, and historical patterns observed within each state/territory.

Projections – capital city/rest of state regions The base population is 30 June 2022 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) as published in National, state and territory population, June 2022. For fertility, the total fertility rate (at the national level) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, of 1.6 babies per woman being phased in from 2022 levels over five years to 2027, before remaining steady for the remainder of the projection span. Observed state/territory, and greater capital city level fertility differentials were applied to the national data so that established trends in the state and capital city/rest of state relativities were preserved. Mortality rates are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that mortality rates will continue to decline across Australia with state/territory differentials persisting. State/territory and capital city/rest of state differentials were used to ensure projected deaths are consistent with the historical trend. Annual net overseas migration (NOM) is based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with an assumed gain (at the national level) of 400,000 in 2022-23, increasing to 315,000 in 2023-24, then declining to 225,000 in 2026-27, after which NOM is assumed to remain constant. State and capital city/rest of state shares are based on a weighted average of NOM data from 2010 to 2019 at the state and territory level to account for the impact of COVID-19. For internal migration, net gains and losses from states and territories and capital city/rest of state regions are based on the medium assumption used in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, and assume that net interstate migration will trend towards long-term historic average flows.

Projections – Statistical Areas Level 2 The base population for each SA2 is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. The SA2-level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario state/territory assumptions from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071, with recent fertility and mortality trends in each SA2 based on annual births (by sex) and deaths (by age and sex) published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. Assumed overseas and internal migration for each SA2 is based on SA2-specific annual overseas and internal arrivals and departures estimates published in Regional Population, 2021-22 and Regional Population by Age and Sex, 2022. The internal migration data was strengthened with SA2-specific data from the 2021 Census, based on the usual residence one year before Census night question. Assumptions were applied by SA2, age and sex. Assumptions were adjusted for some SA2s, to provide more plausible future population levels, and age and sex distribution changes, including areas where populations may not age over time, for example due to significant resident student and defence force populations. Most assumption adjustments were made via the internal migration component. For some SA2s with zero or a very small population base, but where significant population growth is expected, replacement migration age/sex profiles were applied. All SA2-level components and projected projections are constrained to the medium series of capital city/rest of state data in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071.

Projections – Local Government Areas The base population for each LGA is the estimated resident population in each area by single year of age and sex, at 30 June 2022, as published in Regional population by age and sex, 2022 on 28 September 2023. Projections for 30 June 2023 to 2032 were created by converting from the SA2-level population projections to LGAs by age and sex. This was done using an age-specific population correspondence, where the data for each year of the projection span were converted based on 2021 population shares across SA2s. The LGA and SA2 projections are congruous in aggregation as well as in isolation. Unlike the projections prepared at SA2 level, no LGA-specific projection assumptions were used.

Nature of projections and considerations for usage The nature of the projection method and inherent fluctuations in population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projection results. The projections are not forecasts, but rather illustrate future changes which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to allow for non-demographic factors such as major government policy decisions, economic factors, catastrophes, wars and pandemics, which may affect future demographic behaviour. To illustrate a range of possible outcomes, alternative projection series for national, state/territory and capital city/rest of state areas, using different combinations of fertility, mortality, overseas and internal migration assumptions, are prepared. Alternative series are published in Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. Only one series of SA2-level projections was prepared for this product. Population projections can take account of planning and other decisions by governments known at the time the projections were derived, including sub-state projections published by each state and territory government. The ABS generally does not have access to the policies or decisions of commonwealth, state and local governments and businesses that assist in accurately forecasting small area populations. Migration, especially internal migration, accounts for the majority of projected population change for most SA2s. Volatile and unpredictable small area migration trends, especially in the short-term, can have a significant effect on longer-term projection results. Care therefore should be taken with SA2s with small total populations and very small age-sex cells, especially at older ages. While these projections are calculated at the single year of age level, small numbers, and fluctuations across individual ages in the base population and projection assumptions limit the reliability of SA2-level projections at single year of age level. These fluctuations reduce and reliability improves when the projection results are aggregated to broader age groups such as the five-year age bands in this product. For areas with small elderly populations, results aggregated to 65 and over are more reliable than for the individual age groups above 65. With the exception of areas with high planned population growth, SA2s with a base total population of less than 500 have generally been held constant for the projection period in this product as their populations are too small to be reliably projected at all, however their (small) age/sex distributions may change slightly. These SA2s are listed in the appendix. The base (2022) SA2 population estimates and post-2022 projections by age and sex include small artificial cells, including 1s and 2s. These are the result of a confidentialisation process and forced additivity, to control SA2 and capital city/rest of state age/sex totals, being applied to their original values. SA2s and LGAs in this product are based on the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) boundaries as at the 2021 Census (ASGS Edition 3). For further information, see Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) Edition 3.

Made possible by the Digital Atlas of Australia The Digital Atlas of Australia is a key Australian Government initiative being led by Geoscience Australia, highlighted in the Data and Digital Government Strategy. It brings together trusted datasets from across government in an interactive, secure, and easy-to-use geospatial platform. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is working in partnership with Geoscience Australia to establish a set of web services to make ABS data available in the Digital Atlas of Australia.

Contact the Australian Bureau of Statistics If you have questions or feedback about this web service, please email geography@abs.gov.au. To subscribe to updates about ABS web services and geospatial products, please complete this form. For information about how the ABS manages any personal information you provide view the ABS privacy policy.

Data and geography references Source data publication: Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base)