Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The data and programs replicate tables and figures from "Neutral Rate of Interest in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Canada", by Kuncl and Matveev. Please see the ReadMe file for additional details.

Replication data and code for peer-reviewed article forthcoming in Canadian Journal of Economics. Paper to be published online 2025.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T10YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-06-26 about yield curve, spread, 10-year, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMDLR) from 2012-01-25 to 2025-06-18 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

Data and codes for replicating results in "Covered Interest Parity: A Forecasting Approach to Estimate the Neutral Band". Start in the "Readme" file.

Consistent growth in assets under management (AUM) has immensely benefited the Hedge Funds industry over the past five years. Industry servicers invest capital they receive from a variety of investor types across a broad range of asset classes and investment strategies. Operators collect a fee for the amount of money they manage for these clients and a percentage of gains they are able to generate on invested assets. This business model helped industry revenue climb at a CAGR of 7.7% to $127.4 billion over the past five years, including an expected incline of 5.7% in 2024. Despite economic volatility in 2020 due to the pandemic lowering interest rates, an incline in the value of stocks in 2020 positively affected many hedge funds. The S&P 500 climbed 16.3% in 2020, which helped increase AUM. Although industry professionals question the relevance of benchmarking hedge fund returns against equity performance, given that hedge funds rely on a range of instruments other than stocks, the industry's poor performance relative to the S&P 500 has begun to raise concern from some investors. These trends have affected the industry's structure, with the traditional 2.0 and 20.0 structure of a flat fee on total AUM and a right-to-earned profit deteriorating into a 1.4 and 16.0 arrangement. As a result, industry profit, measured as earnings before interest and taxes, has been hindered over the past five years. Industry revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% to $148.5 billion over the next five years. AUM is forecast to continue increasing at a consistent rate, partly due to the diversification benefits that hedge funds provide. Nonetheless, increased regulation stemming from the global financial crisis and an escalating focus on the industry's tax structure has the potential to harm industry profit. Further economic uncertainty stemming from heightened inflation and persistently high interest rates is anticipated to dampen any large-scale growth for the industry as more hedge funds take a hawkish approach in their investment portfolio moving forward. Regardless, the number of new hedge funds is forecast to trend with AUM and revenue over the next five years.

This dataset contains news headlines relevant to key forex pairs: AUDUSD, EURCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY. The data was extracted from reputable platforms Forex Live and FXstreet over a period of 86 days, from January to May 2023. The dataset comprises 2,291 unique news headlines. Each headline includes an associated forex pair, timestamp, source, author, URL, and the corresponding article text. Data was collected using web scraping techniques executed via a custom service on a virtual machine. This service periodically retrieves the latest news for a specified forex pair (ticker) from each platform, parsing all available information. The collected data is then processed to extract details such as the article's timestamp, author, and URL. The URL is further used to retrieve the full text of each article. This data acquisition process repeats approximately every 15 minutes.

To ensure the reliability of the dataset, we manually annotated each headline for sentiment. Instead of solely focusing on the textual content, we ascertained sentiment based on the potential short-term impact of the headline on its corresponding forex pair. This method recognizes the currency market's acute sensitivity to economic news, which significantly influences many trading strategies. As such, this dataset could serve as an invaluable resource for fine-tuning sentiment analysis models in the financial realm.

We used three categories for annotation: 'positive', 'negative', and 'neutral', which correspond to bullish, bearish, and hold sentiments, respectively, for the forex pair linked to each headline. The following Table provides examples of annotated headlines along with brief explanations of the assigned sentiment.

Examples of Annotated Headlines


    Forex Pair
    Headline
    Sentiment
    Explanation




    GBPUSD 
    Diminishing bets for a move to 12400 
    Neutral
    Lack of strong sentiment in either direction


    GBPUSD 
    No reasons to dislike Cable in the very near term as long as the Dollar momentum remains soft 
    Positive
    Positive sentiment towards GBPUSD (Cable) in the near term


    GBPUSD 
    When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBPUSD 
    Neutral
    Poses a question and does not express a clear sentiment


    JPYUSD
    Appropriate to continue monetary easing to achieve 2% inflation target with wage growth 
    Positive
    Monetary easing from Bank of Japan (BoJ) could lead to a weaker JPY in the short term due to increased money supply


    USDJPY
    Dollar rebounds despite US data. Yen gains amid lower yields 
    Neutral
    Since both the USD and JPY are gaining, the effects on the USDJPY forex pair might offset each other


    USDJPY
    USDJPY to reach 124 by Q4 as the likelihood of a BoJ policy shift should accelerate Yen gains 
    Negative
    USDJPY is expected to reach a lower value, with the USD losing value against the JPY


    AUDUSD

    <p>RBA Governor Lowe’s Testimony High inflation is damaging and corrosive </p>

    Positive
    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expresses concerns about inflation. Typically, central banks combat high inflation with higher interest rates, which could strengthen AUD.

Moreover, the dataset includes two columns with the predicted sentiment class and score as predicted by the FinBERT model. Specifically, the FinBERT model outputs a set of probabilities for each sentiment class (positive, negative, and neutral), representing the model's confidence in associating the input headline with each sentiment category. These probabilities are used to determine the predicted class and a sentiment score for each headline. The sentiment score is computed by subtracting the negative class probability from the positive one.