View monthly updates and historical trends for US Recession Probability. from United States. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Track economic data…

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data was reported at 2.250 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.130 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data is updated monthly, averaging 4.620 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 16.300 % in May 1981 and a record low of 0.010 % in Dec 2011. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data was reported at 3.150 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.000 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data is updated monthly, averaging 5.750 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.320 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 1.500 % in Jul 2016. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield: Bond Equivalent data was reported at 2.294 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.171 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield: Bond Equivalent data is updated monthly, averaging 4.740 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.237 % in May 1981 and a record low of 0.010 % in Dec 2011. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield: Bond Equivalent data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data was reported at 0.856 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.829 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data is updated monthly, averaging 1.413 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.146 % in Sep 1982 and a record low of -3.505 % in Dec 1980. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

United States NBER: Recorded Recession data was reported at 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for Sep 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data is updated monthly, averaging 0.000 Unit from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in Jun 2009 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability. An interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.

Recession Prob：收益率曲线：价差在10-01-2018达0.856%，相较于09-01-2018的0.829%有所增长。Recession Prob：收益率曲线：价差数据按月更新，01-01-1959至10-01-2018期间平均值为1.413%，共718份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于09-01-1982，达4.146%，而历史最低值则出现于12-01-1980，为-3.505%。CEIC提供的Recession Prob：收益率曲线：价差数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of New York，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – 表US.S021：衰退可能性。

Recession Prob：收益率曲线：3月期短期国债收益率在10-01-2018达2.250%，相较于09-01-2018的2.130%有所增长。Recession Prob：收益率曲线：3月期短期国债收益率数据按月更新，01-01-1959至10-01-2018期间平均值为4.620%，共718份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于05-01-1981，达16.300%，而历史最低值则出现于12-01-2011，为0.010%。CEIC提供的Recession Prob：收益率曲线：3月期短期国债收益率数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of New York，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – 表US.S021：衰退可能性。

衰退可能性在10-01-2019达14.120%，相较于09-01-2019的14.505%有所下降。衰退可能性数据按月更新，01-01-1960至10-01-2019期间平均值为7.668%，共718份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于12-01-1981，达95.405%，而历史最低值则出现于09-01-1983，为0.080%。CEIC提供的衰退可能性数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of New York，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – 表US.S021：衰退可能性。

NBER：已记录的衰退在10-01-2018达0.000单位，相较于09-01-2018的0.000单位保持不变。NBER：已记录的衰退数据按月更新，01-01-1959至10-01-2018期间平均值为0.000单位，共718份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于06-01-2009，达1.000单位，而历史最低值则出现于10-01-2018，为0.000单位。CEIC提供的NBER：已记录的衰退数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of New York，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – 表US.S021：衰退可能性。

Recession Prob：收益率曲线：10年期长期国债收益率在10-01-2018达3.150%，相较于09-01-2018的3.000%有所增长。Recession Prob：收益率曲线：10年期长期国债收益率数据按月更新，01-01-1959至10-01-2018期间平均值为5.750%，共718份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于09-01-1981，达15.320%，而历史最低值则出现于07-01-2016，为1.500%。CEIC提供的Recession Prob：收益率曲线：10年期长期国债收益率数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of New York，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – 表US.S021：衰退可能性。