Each month we publish independent forecasts of key economic and fiscal indicators for the UK economy. Forecasts before 2010 are hosted by The National Archives.
We began publishing comparisons of independent forecasts in 1986. The first database brings together selected variables from those publications, averaged across forecasters. It includes series for Gross Domestic Product, the Consumer Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments, Public Sector Net Borrowing and the Claimant Count. Our second database contains time series of independent forecasts for GDP growth, private consumption, government consumption, fixed investment, domestic demand and net trade, for 26 forecasters with at least 10 years’ worth of submissions since 2010.
We’d welcome feedback on how you find the database and any extra information that you’d like to see included. Email your comments to Carter.Adams@hmtreasury.gov.uk.
The UK economy shrank by 0.3 percent in April 2025 after reporting 0.2 percent growth in March. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around four percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.
The UK economy grew by 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2025, compared with 0.1 percent growth in the previous quarter. After ending 2023 in recession, the UK economy grew strongly in the first half of 2024, growing by 0.8 percent in Q1, and 0.4 percent in Q2, with growth slowing in the second half of the year. In the third quarter of 2020 the UK experienced record setting growth of 16.8 percent, which itself followed the record 20.3 percent contraction in Q2 2020. Growing economy key to Labour's plans Since winning the 2024 general election, the UK's Labour Party have seen their popularity fall substantially. In February 2025, the government's approval rating fell to a low of -54 percent, making them almost as disliked as the Conservatives just before the last election. A string of unpopular policies since taking office have taken a heavy toll on support for the government. Labour hope they can reverse their declining popularity by growing the economy, which has underperformed for several years, and when measured in GDP per capita, fell in 2023, and 2024. Steady labor market trends set to continue? After a robust 2022, the UK labor market remained resilient throughout 2023 and 2024. The unemployment rate at the end of 2024 was 4.4 percent, up from four percent at the start of the year, but still one of the lowest rates on record. While the average number of job vacancies has been falling since a May 2022 peak, there was a slight increase in January 2025 when compared with the previous month. The more concerning aspect of the labor market, from the government's perspective, are the high levels of economic inactivity due to long-term sickness, which reached a peak of 2.84 million in late 2023, and remained at high levels throughout 2024.
Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 0.70 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom was worth 3380.85 billion US dollars in 2023, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of the United Kingdom represents 3.21 percent of the world economy. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
Official statistics are produced impartially and free from political influence.
The statistic shows GDP per capita in the United Kingdom from 1987 to 2020, with projections up until 2030. In 2020, GDP per capita in the United Kingdom was at around 40,230.55 US dollars. The same year, the total UK population amounted to about 67.26 million people. The United Kingdom is among the leading countries in a world GDP ranking.Falling unemployment in a time of recessionGDP is a useful indicator when it comes to measuring the state of a nation’s economy. GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time, usually a year. GDP per capita equals exactly the GDI (gross domestic income) per capita and is not a measure of an individual’s personal income.As can be seen clearly in the statistic, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the United Kingdom is beginning to increase, albeit not to pre-recession levels. The UK is beginning to see signs of an economic recovery, though as of yet it remains unclear what sort of recovery this is. Questions have been raised as to whether the growth being seen is the right sort of growth for a well balanced recovery across the necessary sectors. An interesting oddity occurred in the United Kingdom for nine months in 2012, which saw a decreasing unemployment occurring at the same time as dip in nationwide economic productivity. This seems like good - if not unusual - news, but could be indicative of people entering part-time employment. It could also suggest that labor productivity is falling, meaning that the UK would be less competitive as a nation. The figures continue to rise, however, with an increase in employment in the private sector. With the rate of inflation in the UK impacting everyone’s daily lives, it is becoming increasingly difficult for vulnerable groups to maintain a decent standard of living.
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Leading Economic Index the United Kingdom increased 0.70 percent in April of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Monthly GDP- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 1.30 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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The Gross Domestic Product per capita in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 47322.67 US dollars in 2023. The GDP per Capita in the United Kingdom is equivalent to 375 percent of the world's average. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP per capita - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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We have successfully extracted a comprehensive news dataset from CNBC, covering not only financial updates but also an extensive range of news categories relevant to diverse audiences in Europe, the US, and the UK. This dataset includes over 500,000 records, meticulously structured in JSON format for seamless integration and analysis.
This extensive extraction spans multiple segments, such as:
Each record in the dataset is enriched with metadata tags, enabling precise filtering by region, sector, topic, and publication date.
The comprehensive news dataset provides real-time insights into global developments, corporate strategies, leadership changes, and sector-specific trends. Designed for media analysts, research firms, and businesses, it empowers users to perform:
Additionally, the JSON format ensures easy integration with analytics platforms for advanced processing.
Looking for a rich repository of structured news data? Visit our news dataset collection to explore additional offerings tailored to your analysis needs.
To get a preview, check out the CSV sample of the CNBC economy articles dataset.
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Dataset - Business forecasting-Great Britain in the news
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The United Kingdom recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 95.90 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2024. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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Explore the role of automation in enhancing productivity and economic growth in the UK, with a focus on industrial robots and technology investments.
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Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom decreased to 3.40 percent in May from 3.50 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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Sources distribution - Business forecasting-Great Britain in the news
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The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4.25 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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Consumer Confidence in the United Kingdom increased to -18 points in June from -20 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Consumer Confidence - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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The United Kingdom recorded a Current Account deficit of 21028 GBP Million in the fourth quarter of 2024. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Current Account - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
Each month we publish independent forecasts of key economic and fiscal indicators for the UK economy. Forecasts before 2010 are hosted by The National Archives.
We began publishing comparisons of independent forecasts in 1986. The first database brings together selected variables from those publications, averaged across forecasters. It includes series for Gross Domestic Product, the Consumer Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments, Public Sector Net Borrowing and the Claimant Count. Our second database contains time series of independent forecasts for GDP growth, private consumption, government consumption, fixed investment, domestic demand and net trade, for 26 forecasters with at least 10 years’ worth of submissions since 2010.
We’d welcome feedback on how you find the database and any extra information that you’d like to see included. Email your comments to Carter.Adams@hmtreasury.gov.uk.