The number of home sales in the United States peaked in 2021 at almost ************* after steadily rising since 2018. Nevertheless, the market contracted in the following year, with transaction volumes falling to ***********. Home sales remained muted in 2024, with a mild increase expected in 2025 and 2026. A major factor driving this trend is the unprecedented increase in mortgage interest rates due to high inflation. How have U.S. home prices developed over time? The average sales price of new homes has also been rising since 2011. Buyer confidence seems to have recovered after the property crash, which has increased demand for homes and also the prices sellers are demanding for homes. At the same time, the affordability of U.S. homes has decreased. Both the number of existing and newly built homes sold has declined since the housing market boom during the coronavirus pandemic. Challenges in housing supply The number of housing units in the U.S. rose steadily between 1975 and 2005 but has remained fairly stable since then. Construction increased notably in the 1990s and early 2000s, with the number of construction starts steadily rising, before plummeting amid the infamous housing market crash. Housing starts slowly started to pick up in 2011, mirroring the economic recovery. In 2022, the supply of newly built homes plummeted again, as supply chain challenges following the COVID-19 pandemic and tariffs on essential construction materials such as steel and lumber led to prices soaring.

Context

Data augmentation for housing prices

Content

US Housing Data for 2008-2009 (pre crisis and crisis year) to predict housing prices more accurate

Inspiration

Housing price prediction competition on Kaggle

Graph and download economic data for All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States (USSTHPI) from Q1 1975 to Q1 2025 about appraisers, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Housing markets are often characterized by price bubbles, and governments have instituted policies to stabilize them. Under this circumstance, this study addresses the following questions. (1) Does policy tightening change expectations in housing prices, revealing a regime change? (2) If so, what determines the housing market’s reaction to policy tightening? To answer these questions, we examine the effects of policy tightening that occurred in 2016 on the Chinese housing market where a price boom persisted in the post-2000 period. Using a log-periodic power law model and employing a modified multi-population genetic algorithm for parameter estimation, we find that tightening policy in China did not cause a market crash; instead, shifting the Chinese housing market from faster-than-exponential growth to a soft landing. We attribute this regime shift to low sensitivity in the Chinese housing market to global perturbations. Our findings suggest that government policies can help stabilize housing prices and improve market conditions when implemented expediently. Moreover, policymakers should consider preparedness for the possibility of an economic crisis and other social needs (e.g., housing affordability) for overall social welfare when managing housing price bubbles.

Revenue for the Residential Real Estate industry in China is expected to decrease at a CAGR of 9.8% over the five years through 2025. This trend includes an expected decrease of 9.6% in the current year.Since August 2020, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have proposed three debt indicators for real estate development and management companies through which the company's financial health can be rated. This new policy has exacerbated the company's debt pressure, making it unable to repay old debts by borrowing new debt. Some real estate companies faced a liquidity crisis.In 2022, the city's lockdown and laying-off caused by COVID-19 epidemic led to the pressure of delaying the delivery of houses. The industry's newly constructed and completed areas decreased significantly throughout the year. In addition, the epidemic has impacted sales in the industry, and some sales offices have been forced to close temporarily. In 2022, the residential sales area decreased by 26.8%, and the residential sales decreased by 31.2%.Industry revenue will recover at an annualized 0.7% over the five years through 2030. Over the next five years, the industry's drag on GDP will weaken, and industry growth will stabilize. However, high housing prices have become a major social problem in China. Under the measures on the principle that residential real estate is used for living, not speculation, the financial attributes of real estate will gradually weaken, and housing prices will tend to stabilize.

Housing Index in the United Kingdom decreased to 511.60 points in June from 511.80 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom House Price Index - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Research in modelling housing market dynamics using agent-based models (ABMs) has grown due to the rise of accessible individual-level data. This research involves forecasting house prices, analysing urban regeneration, and the impact of economic shocks. There is a trend towards using machine learning (ML) algorithms to enhance ABM decision-making frameworks. This study investigates exogenous shocks to the UK housing market and integrates reinforcement learning (RL) to adapt housing market dynamics in an ABM. Results show agents can learn real-time trends and make decisions to manage shocks, achieving goals like adjusting the median house price without pre-determined rules. This model is transferable to other housing markets with similar complexities. The RL agent adjusts mortgage interest rates based on market conditions. Importantly, our model shows how a central bank agent learned conservative behaviours in sensitive scenarios, aligning with a 2009 study, demonstrating emergent behavioural patterns.

Housing markets are often characterized by price bubbles, and governments have instituted policies to stabilize them. Under this circumstance, this study addresses the following questions. (1) Does policy tightening change expectations in housing prices, revealing a regime change? (2) If so, what determines the housing market’s reaction to policy tightening? To answer these questions, we examine the effects of policy tightening that occurred in 2016 on the Chinese housing market where a price boom persisted in the post-2000 period. Using a log-periodic power law model and employing a modified multi-population genetic algorithm for parameter estimation, we find that tightening policy in China did not cause a market crash; instead, shifting the Chinese housing market from faster-than-exponential growth to a soft landing. We attribute this regime shift to low sensitivity in the Chinese housing market to global perturbations. Our findings suggest that government policies can help stabilize housing prices and improve market conditions when implemented expediently. Moreover, policymakers should consider preparedness for the possibility of an economic crisis and other social needs (e.g., housing affordability) for overall social welfare when managing housing price bubbles.

House prices in Spain are forecast to fall in 2024, after increasing by 1.2 percent in 2023. Nevertheless, prices are expected to pick up in 2025, with an increase of one percent. The Portuguese housing market, on the other hand, grew by 5.5 percent in 2023, but was forecast to contract in the next two years.

This poll, the first of two fielded April 2012, is a part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicits public opinion on a range of political and social issues. Respondents were asked how well Barack Obama was handling the presidency, terrorism, the economy, the war in Afghanistan, the housing market, and the issue of gasoline prices. Opinions were collected on whether respondents thought the country was headed in the right direction, the most important problem facing the nation, whether Congress was performing their job well, and the national economy. Respondents were also queried on their opinions of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, as well as whether either of the two presidential candidates would be able to bring real change to Washington, whether they would be able to make the right decisions on various issues, and whether they would be an effective military leader. Additional topics included economic concerns, the suspension of Rick Santorum's presidential campaign, women's health issues, the future of the next generation of Americans, gasoline prices, the home mortgage crisis, federal income tax policies and the capital gains tax policy, the John Edwards trial, and the college education of the respondent's child. Finally, respondents were asked whether they voted in the 2008 presidential election and who they voted for, whether they supported the Tea Party movement, whether they usually vote Democratic or Republican, whether they planned to vote in a 2012 primary or caucus, how much attention they have paid to the 2012 presidential campaign, and whether they were registered to vote. Demographic information includes sex, age, race, social class, marital status, household makeup, education level, household income, employment status, religious preference, type of residential area (e.g., urban or rural), political party affiliation, political philosophy, and whether respondents thought of themselves as born-again Christians.

The best fit of log-periodic power law parameters.

Graph and download economic data for Residential Property Prices for Japan (QJPN628BIS) from Q1 1955 to Q1 2025 about Japan, residential, HPI, housing, price index, indexes, and price.

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a demographic shift of an ageing population and significant technological automation. So if you think that stocks or equities or ETFs are the best place to put your money in 2022, you might want to think again. The crash of the OTC and small-cap market since February 2021 has been quite an indication of what a correction looks like. According to the Motley Fool what happens after major downturns in the market historically speaking? In each of the previous four instances that the S&P 500's Shiller P/E shot above and sustained 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to 89% of its value. So what's what we too are due for, reversion to the mean will be realistically brutal after the Fed's hyper-extreme intervention has run its course. Of course what the Fed stimulus has really done is simply allowed the 1% to get a whole lot richer to the point of wealth inequality spiraling out of control in the decades ahead leading us likely to a dystopia in an unfair and unequal version of BigTech capitalism. This has also led to a trend of short squeeze to these tech stocks, as shown in recent years' data. Of course the Fed has to say that's its done all of these things for the people, employment numbers and the labor market. Women in the workplace have been set behind likely 15 years in social progress due to the pandemic and the Fed's response. While the 89% lost during the Great Depression would be virtually impossible today thanks to ongoing intervention from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill, a correction of 20% to 50% would be pretty fair and simply return the curve back to a normal trajectory as interest rates going back up eventually in the 2023 to 2025 period. It's very unlikely the market has taken Fed tapering into account (priced-in), since the euphoria of a can't miss market just keeps pushing the markets higher. But all good things must come to an end. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data from July. This report showed that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 5.2% over the past 12 months. While the Fed and economists promise us this inflation is temporary, others are not so certain. As you print so much money, the money you have is worth less and certain goods cost more. Wage gains in some industries cannot be taken back, they are permanent - in the service sector like restaurants, hospitality and travel that have been among the hardest hit. The pandemic has led to a paradigm shift in the future of work, and that too is not temporary. The Great Resignation means white collar jobs with be more WFM than ever before, with a new software revolution, different transport and energy behaviors and so forth. Climate change alone could slow down global GDP in the 21st century. How can inflation be temporary when so many trends don't appear to be temporary? Sure the price of lumber or used-cars could be temporary, but a global chip shortage is exasperating the automobile sector. The stock market isn't even behaving like it cares about anything other than the Fed, and its $billions of dollars of buying bonds each month. Some central banks will start to taper about December, 2021 (like the European). However Delta could further mutate into a variant that makes the first generation of vaccines less effective. Such a macro event could be enough to trigger the correction we've been speaking about. So stay safe, and keep your money safe. The Last Dance of the 2009 bull market could feel especially more painful because we've been spoiled for so long in the markets. We can barely remember what March, 2020 felt like. Some people sold their life savings simply due to scare tactics by the likes of Bill Ackman. His scare tactics on CNBC won him likely hundreds of millions as the stock market tanked. Hedge funds further gamed the Reddit and Gamestop movement, orchestrating them and leading the new retail investors into meme speculation and a whole bunch of other unsavory things like options trading at such scale we've never seen before. It's not just inflation and higher interest rates, it's how absurdly high valuations have become. Still correlation does not imply causation. Just because inflation has picked up, it doesn't guarantee that stocks will head lower. Nevertheless, weaker buying power associated with higher inflation can't be overlooked as a potential negative for the U.S. economy and equities. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.7. This is 97% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.5 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This is just math, folks. History is saying the stock market is 2x its true value. So why and who would be full on the market or an asset class like crypto that is mostly speculative in nature to begin with? Study the following on a historical basis, and due your own due diligence as to the health of the markets: Debt-to-GDP ratio Call to put ratio

After a period of rapid increase, house price growth in the UK has moderated. In 2025, house prices are forecast to increase by ****percent. Between 2025 and 2029, the average house price growth is projected at *** percent. According to the source, home building is expected to increase slightly in this period, fueling home buying. On the other hand, higher borrowing costs despite recent easing of mortgage rates and affordability challenges may continue to suppress transaction activity. Historical house price growth in the UK House prices rose steadily between 2015 and 2020, despite minor fluctuations. In the following two years, prices soared, leading to the house price index jumping by about 20 percent. As the market stood in April 2025, the average price for a home stood at approximately ******* British pounds. Rents are expected to continue to grow According to another forecast, the prime residential market is also expected to see rental prices grow in the next five years. Growth is forecast to be stronger in 2025 and slow slightly until 2029. The rental market in London is expected to follow a similar trend, with Outer London slightly outperforming Central London.

Local interviews: policy and other actors engaged in planning and delivery of sustainable housing. This project will examine the challenges and tensions associated with new housing growth in South Central England. It is concerned with the complex relationships between local communities, government agencies and the house building industry, at a time of market and public policy uncertainty. Using the Milton Keynes/Northamptonshire area as the laboratory, the project investigates the tensions and debates about new housing developments in three periods: before the slow-down in the housing market, during the property crash period, and in the current period of slow growth, public expenditure reductions and radical changes in Government planning and housing policy. Using reports and documents (such as local newspapers and planning reports) and interviews with local authorities, developers and community leaders, it will explore how attitudes to new housing among local policymakers have changed, why some areas find it acceptable and some do not. The research will also examine changes in support for sustainable development. Sustainability was a much-publicized objective of the previous government, with the promise to create "sustainable communities" through better urban design (including low carbon buildings), community-based planning and improved public transport, and remains a core element of contemporary planning policy.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

Skyline Champion (SKY) Riding the Housing Wave: Is This a Dip or a Crash?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

The property brokerage sector was hardly affected by the coronavirus crisis and the war in Ukraine. Demand for residential property in urban areas is very high, while demand for office and retail space collapsed in 2020. The slump in demand for commercial space was largely absorbed by industry players, as many companies sold their commercial properties and rented them themselves in order to increase their liquidity in the short term. These sale-and-lease-back transactions often required advice from industry players. Due to the weak development on the commercial property market, turnover is expected to fall by 0.9% to 12.8 billion euros in the current year. On average, a decline in turnover of 3.3% per year has been observed over the past five years. The increased regulation of the property market, such as the rent freeze, has also contributed to this. Politicians have also responded to the sometimes low level of qualification of estate agents by making further training certificates a legal requirement.Despite rising property prices, estate agents are still benefiting from a high willingness to invest in property as a capital investment in the current year. One reason for this is the high level of rents. However, the high level of interest rates reduces the incentives to invest in a home if the client is reliant on borrowed capital. The short supply of properties is driving up property prices in many German cities and is a major factor in the high level of brokerage fees that estate agents receive for successful brokerage. In addition, residential property is considered an attractive capital investment, especially for wealthy private individuals and investors, which is considered crisis-proof in times of volatile securities markets and persistent inflation.Over the next five years up to and including 2029, IBISWorld expects industry turnover to increase by an average of 0.2% per year to an estimated 12.9 billion euros. While the number of commercial property sales will fall due to the negative impact of working from home and online retail, industry players will benefit from recovering demand on the residential property market. Demand for residential property will once again benefit from the reputation of residential property as a crisis-proof investment, even if the high level of interest rates will continue to dampen demand somewhat. In order to remain competitive in a highly fragmented market with low barriers to market entry, companies must increasingly focus on high-quality service offerings.

According to the forecast, the North West and Yorkshire & the Humber are the UK regions expected to see the highest overall growth in house prices over the five-year period between 2025 and 2029. Just behind are the North East and West Midlands. In London, house prices are expected to rise by **** percent.

The average Canadian house price declined slightly in 2023, after four years of consecutive growth. The average house price stood at ******* Canadian dollars in 2023 and was forecast to reach ******* Canadian dollars by 2026. Home sales on the rise The number of housing units sold is also set to increase over the two-year period. From ******* units sold, the annual number of home sales in the country is expected to rise to ******* in 2025. British Columbia and Ontario have traditionally been housing markets with prices above the Canadian average, and both are set to witness an increase in sales in 2025. How did Canadians feel about the future development of house prices? When it comes to consumer confidence in the performance of the real estate market in the next six months, Canadian consumers in 2024 mostly expected that the market would go up. A slightly lower share of the respondents believed real estate prices would remain the same.

Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank on Wall Street, declared bankruptcy on the 15th of September 2008, becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. The investment house, which was founded in the mid-19th century, had become heavily involved in the U.S. housing bubble in the early 2000s, with its large holdings of toxic mortgage-backed securities (MBS) ultimately causing the bank's downfall. The bank had expanded rapidly following the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999, which meant that investment banks could also engage in commercial banking activities. Lehman vertically integrated their mortgage business, buying smaller commercial enterprises that originated housing loans, which allowed the bank to expand its MBS holdings. The downfall of Lehman and the crash of '08 As the U.S. housing market began to slow down in 2006, the default rate on housing loans began to spike, triggering losses for Lehman from their MBS portfolio. Lehman's main competitor in mortgage financing, Bear Stearns, was bought by J.P. Morgan Chase in order to prevent bankruptcy in March 2008, leading investors and lenders to become increasingly concerned about the bank's financial health. As the bank relied on short-term funding on money markets in order to meet its obligations, the news of its huge losses in the third-quarter of 2008 further prevented it from funding itself on financial markets. By September, it was clear that without external assistance, the bank would fail. As its losses from credit default swaps mounted due to the deepening crash in the housing market, Lehman was forced to declare bankruptcy on September 15, as no buyer could be found to save the bank. The collapse of Lehman triggered panic in global financial markets, forcing the U.S. government to step in and bail-out the insurance giant AIG the next day on September 16. The effects of this financial crisis hit the non-financial economy hard, causing a global recession in 2009.