Copper, nickel, lead and zinc mining play a vital role in Canada's economy, positioning it among the world's top ten producers of these metals. As the prices of these metals are subject to global market conditions, there can be significant volatility in revenue and profit. The pandemic constrained growth as many miners were forced to operate at limited capacity, lowering production. As the economy reopened, demand for metals surpassed the available supply, leading to a price surge. This, coupled with mines operating at higher capacity, contributed to overall growth, allowing miners to navigate the period successfully. Even so, as supply chains stabilized, metal prices began to sink from their peak levels, hindering revenue. Overall, revenue is expected to swell at a CAGR of 0.5% to $10.6 billion through the end of 2024, including a 2.4% slump in 2024 alone amid falling metal prices. Environmental concerns have fueled the need for domestic and international copper and nickel. These metals are pivotal in producing various clean energy technologies like electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels. Given their high conductivity, copper and nickel are critical components for these innovative products. The need for these metals will surge as Canada transitions toward greener technology. Looking ahead, industry revenue is set to climb at a CAGR of 0.5% to $11.2 billion by the end of 2028. Improvements in market conditions for copper and nickel will help buoy revenue. Increased government funding for infrastructure projects is set to stimulate growth in downstream markets, creating a heightened need for these metals. The depreciation of the Canadian dollar will make domestic metals more competitively priced for foreign countries, leading to a potential rebound in exports and providing an extra boost to industry revenue. Nonetheless, despite these positive developments, the challenge of imports remains a concern for domestic mines.

Nickel ore miners faced mostly positive operating conditions over the past decade, with strong pricing growth over most of the period amid rising global demand for nickel. However, in 2023-24, oversupply in the global market prompted a sharp price downturn, forcing smaller nickel ore miners like Wyloo and Panoramic Resources to cease and suspend operations. The Federal Government reacted to weak nickel ore prices and these closures by providing relief through tax credits and subsidies, adding nickel to the Critical Minerals List in early 2024. The Western Australian Government also cut the royalties tax by 50.0% for 18 months. Despite the government's efforts, mining giants like BHP also succumbed to the effects of weak nickel prices, leading to its decision to suspend its Western Australia Nickel operations in October 2024. The closure of BHP's nickel operations will cause a steep drop in nickel ore production volumes. Domestic production is forecast to drop to 75.5 kilotonnes in 2024-25, from 133.6 kilotonnes in 2023-24. This production dip is why nickel ore mining revenue is anticipated to plummet at an annualised 15.2% over the five years through 2024-25, to $1.4 billion. The trend includes a 51.4% plunge expected in 2024-25, attributed to reduced production volumes. Operating conditions have been challenging for nickel producers because of inflationary pressures. Even during 2019-20 to 2022-23, when nickel prices jumped, miners grappled with a surge in operating costs, curtailing their profitability. The competitiveness of the labour market in the mining sector, coupled with inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, continues to hamper miners' profitability. Industry revenue is projected to contract at an annualised 2.3% over the five years through 2029-30 to $1.3 billion. Recent volatility in price movements is forecast to ease, and miners will benefit from accelerating electric vehicle adoption and steady growth in steel production. Despite the price recovery, domestic production is set to diminish as miners halt their expansion plans. Government intervention will play a crucial role in facilitating the resumption of nickel strategies over the coming years.

Copper, Nickel, Lead and Zinc Miners have seen modest revenue growth since 2019, in spite of disruptions stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and volatile demand from China. Minerals produced by the industry are key inputs in construction, electronics and automobiles, leading demand to fluctuate in unison with overall global economic activity. Specifically, China's vast appetite for copper and other metals creates a robust and direct relationship between Chinese demand and global market conditions. Overall, industry revenue has been growing at an estimated CAGR of 1.1% to reach $13.2 billion in 2024 when revenue is set to decline 0.9% and profit is set to have fallen amid mounting costs.Despite restrictions inhibiting industry growth during the pandemic, the industry made a strong recovery in 2021, in line with flourishing economic conditions. Global copper, lead and zinc prices spiked as the economy rapidly reopened, with increased manufacturing activity meeting a constrained supply chain, driving up prices and therefore miners’ revenue. Since then, industry revenue has seen steady declines as easing supply chain issues and poor Chinese economic performance have driven down industry-relevant commodity prices. At the same time, the competitive and extremely capital-intensive landscape has forced some companies to exit the industry.Industry revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 0.3% to $13.4 billion over the next five years. Companies will continue to seek additional measures to reduce operating costs, as profitability has been historically volatile and will remain unstable. Mineral prices will continue to display high levels of volatility, with the prices of zinc, copper and lead set to remain below the highs of the previous period. Consolidation efforts will continue as domestic and foreign companies continue investing or acquiring assets on an international scale, reflecting the increasing globalization of the mining sector.

Australia has a large supply of mineral, hydrocarbon and non-mineral reserves, which are often high quality and close to the Earth’s surface, enabling Australia’s Mining division to be globally price competitive. Fluctuations in commodity prices have fuelled revenue volatility over the past few years. Energy supply shocks, driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have sent global energy prices soaring, boosting the value of coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports over the past few years. However, softening energy prices in the two years through 2024-25 will constrain energy export revenue and weaken expansion. Iron ore prices have also fluctuated significantly in recent years. These prices climbed to a peak in 2020-21 because of supply chain disruptions in Brazil. However, a recent property market crisis in China has weakened steel demand, causing iron ore prices to sink and reach a two-year low in September 2024. The price bounced back in October 2024 amid optimism surrounding the Chinese economy and stimulus measures, but is forecast to drop in 2024-25 as recent trade tensions and the United States’ sweeping tariffs exacerbated this trend and pushed prices down. Division revenue is expected to have risen at an annualised 0.6% over the five years through 2024-25, to $437.3 billion. This includes an anticipated fall of 10.5% in 2024-25 as the values of coal, LNG and iron ore exports ease on the back of softening prices. Some miners have pivoted towards future-facing commodities like copper and lithium to align with energy transition trends, but oversupply and softening prices pose ongoing profitability challenges. Soaring operational costs are compounding these issues as labour shortages, rising input costs and sophisticated competition have eroded profit margins. While commodity prices like oil, gas and coal have retracted from recent highs, they remain above 2019-20 levels, offering some relief and counteracting profitability dips. Many mining companies have moved from completing expansion programs to rebalancing their portfolios and implementing cost-reduction initiatives, offsetting profitability slumps. Output across several key commodities like iron ore is set to climb as new mines and expansion projects come online. Despite this, a global supply glut will ease commodity prices, reducing division revenue. Revenue is forecast to decline at an annualised 3.1% over the five years through 2029-30, to $374.3 billion. Growing demand for critical minerals and commodities used in renewable infrastructure represents a growth opportunity for some areas of the Mining division. Consolidation trends will also accelerate over the coming years as larger miners undertake mergers and acquisitions.