Historical chart and dataset showing Nigeria fertility rate by year from 1950 to 2025.

The total fertility rate in Nigeria decreased by 0.1 children per woman (-2.2 percent) compared to the previous year. Therefore, 2023 marks the lowest fertility rate during the observed period. Total fertility rates refer to the average number of children that a woman of childbearing age (generally considered 15 to 44 years) can expect to have throughout her reproductive years. Unlike birth rates, which are based on the actual number of live births in a given population, fertility rates are hypothetical (similar to life expectancy), as they assume that current patterns in age-specific fertility will remain constant throughout a woman's reproductive years.Find more statistics on other topics about Nigeria with key insights such as death rate, infant mortality rate, and health expenditure as a share of gross domestic product.

Nigeria NG: Total Fertility Rate: Children per Woman data was reported at 4.480 Person in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.550 Person for 2022. Nigeria NG: Total Fertility Rate: Children per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 6.040 Person from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2023, with 34 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.460 Person in 1990 and a record low of 4.480 Person in 2023. Nigeria NG: Total Fertility Rate: Children per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Nigeria – Table NG.OECD.GGI: Social: Demography: Non OECD Member: Annual.

A flexible model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates: Sub-saharan Africa case study

The fertility rates are consistent with the United Nation World Population Prospects (UN WPP) 2022 fertility rates.

The Bayesian model developed to reconstruct the fertility rates using Demographic and Health Surveys and the UN WPP is published in a working paper.

Abstract

The future world population growth and size will be largely determined by the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. Correct estimates of education-specific fertility rates are crucial for projecting the future population. Yet, consistent cross-country comparable estimates of education-specific fertility for sub-Saharan African countries are still lacking. We propose a flexible Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct education-specific fertility rates by using the patchy Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data and the United Nations’ (UN) reliable estimates of total fertility rates (TFR). Our model produces estimates that match the UN TFR to different extents (in other words, estimates of varying levels of consistency with the UN). We present three model specifications: consistent but not identical with the UN, fully-consistent (nearly identical) with the UN, and consistent with the DHS. Further, we provide a full time series of education-specific TFR estimates covering five-year periods between 1980 and 2014 for 36 sub-Saharan African countries. The results show that the DHS-consistent estimates are usually higher than the UN-fully-consistent ones. The differences between the three model estimates vary substantially in size across countries, yielding 1980-2014 fertility trends that differ from each other mostly in level only but in some cases also in direction.

Funding

The data set are part of the BayesEdu Project at Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) funded from the “Innovation Fund Research, Science and Society” by the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW).

We provide education-specific total fertility rates (ESTFR) from three model specifications: (1) estimated TFR consistent but not identical with the TFR estimated by the UN (“Main model (UN-consistent)”; (2) estimated TFR fully consistent (nearly identical) with the TFR estimated by the UN ( “UN-fully -consistent”, and (3) estimated TFR consistent only with the TFR estimated by the DHS ( “DHS-consistent”).

For education- and age-specific fertility rates that are UN-fully consistent, please see https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8182960

Variables

Country: Country names

Education: Four education levels, No Education, Primary Education, Secondary Education and Higher Education.

Year: Five-year periods between 1980 and 2015.

ESTFR: Median education-specific total fertility rate estimate

sd: Standard deviation

Upp50: 50% Upper Credible Interval

Lwr50: 50% Lower Credible Interval

Upp80: 80% Upper Credible Interval

Lwr80: 80% Lower Credible Interval

Model: Three model specifications as explained above and in the working paper. DHS-consistent, Main model (UN-consistent) and UN-fully consistent.

List of countries:

Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cote D'Ivoire, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe

In 2023, the birth rate in Nigeria was estimated to reach ** births per 1,000 people. In the next years, the rate in the country was projected to experience a decrease. As such, in 2030, this figure could drop by about **** births less compared to 2020. By 2050, the birth rate was estimated to decline further, reaching approximately ** births per every 1,000 individuals.

In 2020, Nigeria ranked 20th on the list of countries with the highest birth rate on the African continent.

In 2025, there are six countries, all in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the average woman of childbearing age can expect to have between 5-6 children throughout their lifetime. In fact, of the 20 countries in the world with the highest fertility rates, Afghanistan and Yemen are the only countries not found in Sub-Saharan Africa. High fertility rates in Africa With a fertility rate of almost six children per woman, Chad is the country with the highest fertility rate in the world. Population growth in Chad is among the highest in the world. Lack of healthcare access, as well as food instability, political instability, and climate change, are all exacerbating conditions that keep Chad's infant mortality rates high, which is generally the driver behind high fertility rates. This situation is common across much of the continent, and, although there has been considerable progress in recent decades, development in Sub-Saharan Africa is not moving as quickly as it did in other regions. Demographic transition While these countries have the highest fertility rates in the world, their rates are all on a generally downward trajectory due to a phenomenon known as the demographic transition. The third stage (of five) of this transition sees birth rates drop in response to decreased infant and child mortality, as families no longer feel the need to compensate for lost children. Eventually, fertility rates fall below replacement level (approximately 2.1 children per woman), which eventually leads to natural population decline once life expectancy plateaus. In some of the most developed countries today, low fertility rates are creating severe econoic and societal challenges as workforces are shrinking while aging populations are placin a greater burden on both public and personal resources.

The 2003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (2003 NDHS) is the third national Demographic and Health Survey conducted in Nigeria. The 2003 NDHS is based on a nationally representative sample of over 7,000 households. All women age 15-49 in these households and all men age 15-59 in a subsample of one-third of the households were individually interviewed. The survey provides up-to-date information on the population and health situation in Nigeria. The 2003 NDHS was designed to provide estimates for key indicators such as fertility, contraceptive use, infant and child mortality, immunization levels, use of family planning, maternal and child health, breastfeeding practices, nutritional status of mothers and young children, use of mosquito nets, female genital cutting, marriage, sexual activity, and awareness and behaviour regarding AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections in Nigeria. MAIN RESULTS FERTILITY Fertility Levels, Trends, and Preferences. The total fertility rate (TFR) in Nigeria is 5.7. This means that at current fertility levels, the average Nigerian woman who is at the beginning of her childbearing years will give birth to 5.7 children by the end of her lifetime. Compared with previous national surveys, the 2003 survey shows a modest decline in fertility over the last two decades: from a TFR of 6.3 in the 1981-82 National Fertility Survey (NFS) to 6.0 in the 1990 NDHS to 5.7 in the 2003 NDHS. However, the 2003 NDHS rate of 5.7 is significantly higher than the 1999 NDHS rate of 5.2. Analysis has shown that the 1999 survey underestimated the true levels of fertility in Nigeria. On average, rural women will have one more child than urban women (6.1 and 4.9, respectively). Fertility varies considerably by region of residence, with lower rates in the south and higher rates in the north. Fertility also has a strong negative correlation with a woman's educational attainment. Most Nigerians, irrespective of their number of living children, want large families. The ideal number of children is 6.7 for all women and 7.3 for currently married women. Nigerian men want even more children than women. The ideal number of children for all men is 8.6 and for currently married men is 10.6. Clearly, one reason for the slow decline in Nigerian fertility is the desire for large families. FAMILY PLANNING Knowledge of Family Planning Methods. About eight in ten women and nine in ten men know at least one modern method of family planning. The pill, injectables, and the male condom are the most widely known modern methods among both women and men. Mass media is an important source of information on family planning. Radio is the most frequent source of family planning messages: 40 percent of women and 56 percent of men say they heard a radio message about family planning during the months preceding the survey. However, more than half of women (56 percent) and 41 percent men were not exposed to family planning messages from a mass media source. Current Use. A total of 13 percent of currently married women are using a method of family planning, including 8 percent who are using a modern method. The most common modern methods are the pill, injectables, and the male condom (2 percent each). Urban women are more than twice as likely as rural women to use a method of contraception (20 percent versus 9 percent). Contraceptive use varies significantly by region. For example, one-third of married women in the South West use a method of contraception compared with just 4 percent of women in the North East and 5 percent of women in the North West. CHILD HEALTH Mortality. The 2003 NDHS survey estimates infant mortality to be 100 per 1,000 live births for the 1999-2003 period. This infant mortality rate is significantly higher than the estimates from both the 1990 and 1999 NDHS surveys; the earlier surveys underestimated mortality levels in certain regions of the country, which in turn biased downward the national estimates. Thus, the higher rate from the 2003 NDHS is more likely due to better data quality than an actual increase in mortality risk overall. The rural infant mortality rate (121 per 1,000) is considerably higher than the urban rate (81 per 1,000), due in large part to the difference in neonatal mortality rates. As in other countries, low maternal education, a low position on the household wealth index, and shorter birth intervals are strongly associated with increased mortality risk. The under-five mortality rate for the 1999-2003 period was 201 per 1,000. Vaccinations. Only 13 percent of Nigerian children age 12-23 months can be considered fully vaccinated, that is, have received BCG, measles, and three doses each of DPT and polio vaccine (excluding the polio vaccine given at birth). This is the lowest vaccination rate among African countries in which DHS surveys have been conducted since 1998. Less than half of children have received each of the recommended vaccinations, with the exception of polio 1 (67 percent) and polio 2 (52 percent). More than three times as many urban children as rural children are fully vaccinated (25 percent and 7 percent, respectively). WHO guidelines are that children should complete the schedule of recommended vaccinations by 12 months of age. In Nigeria, however, only 11 percent of children age 12-23 months received all of the recommended vaccinations before their first birthday. WOMEN'S HEALTH Breastfeeding. Breastfeeding is almost universal in Nigeria, with 97 percent of children born in the five years preceding the survey having been breastfed. However, just one-third of children were given breast milk within one hour of birth (32 percent), and less than two-thirds were given breast milk within 24 hours of birth (63 percent). Overall, the median duration of any breastfeeding is 18.6 months, while the median duration of exclusive breastfeeding is only half a month. Complementary Feeding. At age 6-9 months, the recommended age for introducing complementary foods, three-quarters of breast-feeding infants received solid or semisolid foods during the day or night preceding the interview; 56 percent received food made from grains, 25 percent received meat, fish, shellfish, poultry or eggs, and 24 percent received fruits or vegetables. Fruits and vegetables rich in vitamin A were consumed by 20 percent of breastfeeding infants age 6-9 months. Maternal Care. Almost two-thirds of mothers in Nigeria (63 percent) received some antenatal care (ANC) for their most recent live birth in the five years preceding the survey. While one-fifth of mothers (21 percent) received ANC from a doctor, almost four in ten women received care from nurses or midwives (37 percent). Almost half of women (47 percent) made the minimum number of four recommended visits, but most of the women who received antenatal care did not get care within the first three months of pregnancy. In terms of content of care, slightly more than half of women who received antenatal care said that they were informed of potential pregnancy complications (55 percent). Fifty-eight percent of women received iron tablets; almost two-thirds had a urine or blood sample taken; and 81 percent had their blood pressure measured. Almost half (47 percent) received no tetanus toxoid injections during their most recent birth. WOMEN'S CHARACTERISTICS AND STATUS Across all maternal care indicators, rural women are disadvantaged compared with urban women, and there are marked regional differences among women. Overall, women in the south, particularly the South East and South West, received better care than women in the north, especially women in the North East and North West. Female Circumcision. Almost one-fifth of Nigerian women are circumcised, but the data suggest that the practice is declining. The oldest women are more than twice as likely as the youngest women to have been circumcised (28 percent versus 13 percent). Prevalence is highest among the Yoruba (61 percent) and Igbo (45 percent), who traditionally reside in the South West and South East. Half of the circumcised respondents could not identify the type of procedure performed. Among those women who could identify the type of procedure, the most common type of circumcision involved cutting and removal of flesh (44 percent of all circumcised women). Four percent of women reported that their vaginas were sewn closed during circumcision. MALARIA CONTROL PROGRAM INDICATORS Nets. Although malaria is a major public health concern in Nigeria, only 12 percent of households report owning at least one mosquito net. Even fewer, 2 percent of households, own an insecticide treated net (ITN). Rural households are almost three times as likely as urban households to own at least one mosquito net. Overall, 6 percent of children under age five sleep under a mosquito net, including 1 percent of children who sleep under an ITN. Five percent of pregnant women slept under a mosquito net the night before the survey, one-fifth of them under an ITN. Use of Antimalarials. Overall, 20 percent of women reported that they took an antimalarial for prevention of malaria during their last pregnancy in the five years preceding the survey. Another 17 percent reported that they took an unknown drug, and 4 percent took paracetamol or herbs to prevent malaria. Only 1 percent received intermittent preventative treatment (IPT)-or preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (Fansidar/SP) during an antenatal care visit. Among pregnant women who took an antimalarial, more than half (58 percent) used Daraprim, which has been found to be ineffective as a chemoprophylaxis during pregnancy. Additionally, 39 percent used chloroquine, which was the chemoprophylactic drug of choice until the introduction of IPT in Nigeria in 2001. Among children who were sick with fever/convulsions, one-third took antimalarial drugs, the majority receiving the drugs

In 2021, Niger was the African country with the highest fertility rate. There, each woman had an average of 6.82 children in her reproductive years. Somalia and Chad followed, with a fertility rate of around 6.31 and 6.26 children per woman, respectively. Fertility levels in Africa remain high despite a steady decline The fertility rate in Africa has gradually decreased since 2000 and is projected to decline further in the coming years. Factors including improved socio-economic conditions and educational opportunities, lower infant mortality, and decreasing poverty levels have driven the declining birth rate on the continent. Nevertheless, Africa remains the continent with the highest fertility rate worldwide. Between 2015 and 2021, women in Africa had an average of 4.47 children in their reproductive years. Africa was the only continent registering a fertility rate higher than the global average, which was set at 2.32 children per woman. Worldwide, the continent also had the highest adolescent fertility rate as of 2021, with West and Central Africa leading with 107 births per 1,000 girls aged 15 to 19 years. Africa’s population keeps growing According to projections, over 46 million births will be registered in Africa in 2023. Contrary to the declining fertility rate, the absolute number of births on the continent will continue to grow in the coming years to reach around 50.1 million by 2026. In general, Africa’s population – amounting to over 1.39 billion inhabitants as of 2021 – is forecast to increase considerably and achieve almost 2.5 billion in 2050. Countries such as Niger, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea are key drivers of population growth in Africa, registering the highest average population growth rate on the continent between 2020 and 2025. For instance, in that period, Niger’s population was forecast to expand by 3.7 percent each year.

Abstract

The 2003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (2003 NDHS) is the third national Demographic and Health Survey conducted in Nigeria. The 2003 NDHS is based on a nationally representative sample of over 7,000 households. All women age 15-49 in these households and all men age 15-59 in a subsample of one-third of the households were individually interviewed. The survey provides up-to-date information on the population and health situation in Nigeria.

The 2003 NDHS was designed to provide estimates for key indicators such as fertility, contraceptive use, infant and child mortality, immunization levels, use of family planning, maternal and child health, breastfeeding practices, nutritional status of mothers and young children, use of mosquito nets, female genital cutting, marriage, sexual activity, and awareness and behaviour regarding AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections in Nigeria.

MAIN RESULTS

• FERTILITY

Fertility Levels, Trends, and Preferences. The total fertility rate (TFR) in Nigeria is 5.7. This means that at current fertility levels, the average Nigerian woman who is at the beginning of her childbearing years will give birth to 5.7 children by the end of her lifetime. Compared with previous national surveys, the 2003 survey shows a modest decline in fertility over the last two decades: from a TFR of 6.3 in the 1981-82 National Fertility Survey (NFS) to 6.0 in the 1990 NDHS to 5.7 in the 2003 NDHS. However, the 2003 NDHS rate of 5.7 is significantly higher than the 1999 NDHS rate of 5.2. Analysis has shown that the 1999 survey underestimated the true levels of fertility in Nigeria.

On average, rural women will have one more child than urban women (6.1 and 4.9, respectively). Fertility varies considerably by region of residence, with lower rates in the south and higher rates in the north. Fertility also has a strong negative correlation with a woman's educational attainment.

Most Nigerians, irrespective of their number of living children, want large families. The ideal number of children is 6.7 for all women and 7.3 for currently married women. Nigerian men want even more children than women. The ideal number of children for all men is 8.6 and for currently married men is 10.6. Clearly, one reason for the slow decline in Nigerian fertility is the desire for large families.

• FAMILY PLANNING

Knowledge of Family Planning Methods. About eight in ten women and nine in ten men know at least one modern method of family planning. The pill, injectables, and the male condom are the most widely known modern methods among both women and men. Mass media is an important source of information on family planning. Radio is the most frequent source of family planning messages: 40 percent of women and 56 percent of men say they heard a radio message about family planning during the months preceding the survey. However, more than half of women (56 percent) and 41 percent men were not exposed to family planning messages from a mass media source.

Current Use. A total of 13 percent of currently married women are using a method of family planning, including 8 percent who are using a modern method. The most common modern methods are the pill, injectables, and the male condom (2 percent each). Urban women are more than twice as likely as rural women to use a method of contraception (20 percent versus 9 percent). Contraceptive use varies significantly by region. For example, one-third of married women in the South West use a method of contraception compared with just 4 percent of women in the North East and 5 percent of women in the North West.

• CHILD HEALTH

Mortality. The 2003 NDHS survey estimates infant mortality to be 100 per 1,000 live births for the 1999-2003 period. This infant mortality rate is significantly higher than the estimates from both the 1990 and 1999 NDHS surveys; the earlier surveys underestimated mortality levels in certain regions of the country, which in turn biased downward the national estimates. Thus, the higher rate from the 2003 NDHS is more likely due to better data quality than an actual increase in mortality risk overall.

The rural infant mortality rate (121 per 1,000) is considerably higher than the urban rate (81 per 1,000), due in large part to the difference in neonatal mortality rates. As in other countries, low maternal education, a low position on the household wealth index, and shorter birth intervals are strongly associated with increased mortality risk. The under-five mortality rate for the 1999-2003 period was 201 per 1,000.

Vaccinations. Only 13 percent of Nigerian children age 12-23 months can be considered fully vaccinated, that is, have received BCG, measles, and three doses each of DPT and polio vaccine (excluding the polio vaccine given at birth). This is the lowest vaccination rate among African countries in which DHS surveys have been conducted since 1998. Less than half of children have received each of the recommended vaccinations, with the exception of polio 1 (67 percent) and polio 2 (52 percent). More than three times as many urban children as rural children are fully vaccinated (25 percent and 7 percent, respectively). WHO guidelines are that children should complete the schedule of recommended vaccinations by 12 months of age. In Nigeria, however, only 11 percent of children age 12-23 months received all of the recommended vaccinations before their first birthday.

• WOMEN'S HEALTH

Breastfeeding. Breastfeeding is almost universal in Nigeria, with 97 percent of children born in the five years preceding the survey having been breastfed. However, just one-third of children were given breast milk within one hour of birth (32 percent), and less than two-thirds were given breast milk within 24 hours of birth (63 percent). Overall, the median duration of any breastfeeding is 18.6 months, while the median duration of exclusive breastfeeding is only half a month.

Complementary Feeding. At age 6-9 months, the recommended age for introducing complementary foods, three-quarters of breast-feeding infants received solid or semisolid foods during the day or night preceding the interview; 56 percent received food made from grains, 25 percent received meat, fish, shellfish, poultry or eggs, and 24 percent received fruits or vegetables. Fruits and vegetables rich in vitamin A were consumed by 20 percent of breastfeeding infants age 6-9 months.

Maternal Care. Almost two-thirds of mothers in Nigeria (63 percent) received some antenatal care (ANC) for their most recent live birth in the five years preceding the survey. While one-fifth of mothers (21 percent) received ANC from a doctor, almost four in ten women received care from nurses or midwives (37 percent). Almost half of women (47 percent) made the minimum number of four recommended visits, but most of the women who received antenatal care did not get care within the first three months of pregnancy.

In terms of content of care, slightly more than half of women who received antenatal care said that they were informed of potential pregnancy complications (55 percent). Fifty-eight percent of women received iron tablets; almost two-thirds had a urine or blood sample taken; and 81 percent had their blood pressure measured. Almost half (47 percent) received no tetanus toxoid injections during their most recent birth.

WOMEN'S CHARACTERISTICS AND STATUS

Across all maternal care indicators, rural women are disadvantaged compared with urban women, and there are marked regional differences among women. Overall, women in the south, particularly the South East and South West, received better care than women in the north, especially women in the North East and North West.

Female Circumcision. Almost one-fifth of Nigerian women are circumcised, but the data suggest that the practice is declining. The oldest women are more than twice as likely as the youngest women to have been circumcised (28 percent versus 13 percent). Prevalence is highest among the Yoruba (61 percent) and Igbo (45 percent), who traditionally reside in the South West and South East. Half of the circumcised respondents could not identify the type of procedure performed. Among those women who could identify the type of procedure, the most common type of circumcision involved cutting and removal of flesh (44 percent of all circumcised women). Four percent of women reported that their vaginas were sewn closed during circumcision.

MALARIA CONTROL PROGRAM INDICATORS

Nets. Although malaria is a major public health concern in Nigeria, only 12 percent of households report owning at least one mosquito net. Even fewer, 2 percent of households, own an insecticide treated net (ITN). Rural households are almost three times as likely as urban households to own at least one mosquito net. Overall, 6 percent of children under age five sleep under a mosquito net, including 1 percent of children who sleep under an ITN. Five percent of pregnant women slept under a mosquito net the night before the survey, one-fifth of them under an ITN.

Use of Antimalarials. Overall, 20 percent of women reported that they took an antimalarial for prevention of malaria during their last pregnancy in the five years preceding the survey. Another 17 percent reported that they took an unknown drug, and 4 percent took paracetamol or herbs to prevent malaria. Only 1 percent received intermittent preventative treatment (IPT)-or preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (Fansidar/SP) during an antenatal care visit. Among pregnant women who took an antimalarial, more than half (58 percent) used Daraprim, which has been found to be ineffective as a chemoprophylaxis during pregnancy. Additionally, 39 percent used chloroquine, which was the chemoprophylactic drug of choice until the introduction of IPT in Nigeria in 2001.

Among children