The 2021 Northern Ireland Census marked the first time since records began where the Catholic share of the population was larger than the combined Protestant share. In 2021, over 42 percent of the population classified themselves as Catholic or from a Catholic background, in comparison with 37 percent classified as Protestant or from a Protestant background. Additionally, the share of the population with no religion (or those who did not answer) was 19 percent; larger than any individual Protestant denomination. This marks a significant shift in demographic and societal trends over the past century, as Protestants outnumbered Catholics by roughly 2:1 when Northern Ireland was established in the 1920s. Given the Catholic community's historic tendency to be in favor of a united Ireland, many look to the changing religious composition of the population when assessing the potential for Irish reunification. Religion's historical influence A major development in the history of British rule in ireland was the Plantation of Ulster in the 1600s, where much of the land in the north (historically the most rebellious region) was seized from Irish Catholics and given to Protestant settlers from Britain (predominantly Scots). This helped establish Protestant dominance in the north, created a large section of the population loyal to the British crown, and saw a distinct Ulster-Scots identity develop over time. In the 1920s, the republican movement won independence for 26 of Ireland's 32 counties, however, the six counties in Ulster with the largest Protestant populations remained part of the UK, as Northern Ireland. Following partition, structural inequalities between Northern Ireland's Protestant and Catholic communities meant that the Protestant population was generally wealthier, better educated, more politically empowered, and had better access to housing, among other advantages. In the 1960s, a civil rights movement then emerged for equal rights and status for both sides of the population, but this quickly turned violent and escalated into a the three-decade long conflict now known as the Troubles.

The Troubles was largely fought between nationalist/republican paramilitaries (mostly Catholic), unionist/loyalist paramilitaries (mostly Protestant), and British security forces (including the police). This is often described as a religious conflict, however it is more accurately described as an ethnic and political conflict, where the Catholic community generally favored Northern Ireland's reunification with the rest of the island, while the Protestant community wished to remain in the UK. Paramilitaries had a large amount of support from their respective communities in the early years of the Troubles, but this waned as the conflict progressed into the 1980s and 1990s. Demographic and societal trends influenced the religious composition of Northern Ireland's population in these decades, as the Catholic community had higher fertility rates than Protestant communities, while the growing secularism has coincided with a decline in those identifying as Protestant - the dip in those identifying as Catholic in the 1970s and 1980s was due to a protest and boycott of the Census. The Troubles came to an end in 1998, and divisions between both sides of the community have drastically fallen, although they have not disappeared completely.

In Northern Ireland in the 1960s, widespread inequalities between the Catholic and Protestant communities led to a civil rights campaign, which later developed into a 30-year conflict known as the Troubles. Although Protestants made up around two-thirds of the north's population, they also had disproportionate control of the government and economy. As a result, the unemployment rate among Catholics was around 2.5 times higher than that of Protestants in the early-70s. As the conflict developed, high unemployment among young Catholic men in particular was a major factor in the growth of Republican paramilitary organizations such as the Irish Republican Army. The Fair Employment Act of 1976 sought to undo this inequality by promoting equal opportunities and prohibiting religious discrimination; however, unemployment grew even higher in the 1980s, with over a third of Catholic men unemployed by 1987.

Political inequality between Catholic and Protestant communities was one of the key social issues in the 1960s in Northern Ireland, and the civil rights campaign that emerged in the pursuit of equal representation would eventually give way to the 30-year conflict that became known as the Troubles. Following Irish independence from Britain in the 1920s, the island of Ireland was partitioned and the six counties of Ireland with the largest Protestant populations remained in the UK as Northern Ireland. At the time of partition, the north's population was roughly two-thirds Protestant, one-third Catholic, which gave political dominance to unionist parties - generally seen as those representing Protestant communities' interests. However, despite the numerical advantage, the political system was rigged to further extend this political advantage. University students and business owners (both groups were overwhelmingly Protestant), were granted a second vote in Stormont (Northern Ireland's parliament) elections. In local elections, only ratepayers (i.e. the heads of households) and their spouses could vote - this excluded many Catholic adults who were living in multi-generational households, which was a symptom of Northern Ireland's housing shortage and inequalities in housing allocation between the two communities. Moreover, this meant that voters who paid rates (NI's council tax) on multiple properties could vote several times, on top of additional votes for business owners and companies, which were more likely to be Protestant. In addition to voting inequalities, districts were gerrymandered in favor of unionist parties. In combination, these factors often proved decisive in swinging elections to give unionist parties victory in Catholic-majority areas.

This dataset comprises the results of a survey of a cross section of the Northern Ireland population. Respondents were asked questions on a range of political attitudes and behaviour. The survey was conducted directly after the Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2016 and asks the following: full voting information as gathered via a mock ballot paper, full set of demographic questions including social class, religion, education, gender and suchlike, battery of political attitude questions on ethnonational, economic and moral themes, question on voting behaviour in the EU referendum, questions on political accountability, ethnic representation, candidate traits and other politically relevant questions.

Background information on the Power-Sharing and Voting: Conflict, Accountability and Electoral Behaviour at the 2015 Northern Ireland Assembly Election project:
When citizens in Northern Ireland cast their vote in the 2015 Northern Ireland Assembly election, almost two decades had passed since the Good Friday/ Belfast Agreement of 1998 established devolution and power-sharing. Thus, a rigorous analysis of the 2015 Assembly election allows careful consideration of the impact of the 'peace process' and the associated implementation of power-sharing governing structures.

The project investigates whether power-sharing has actually led to good quality electoral democracy for the people of Northern Ireland or has instead merely cemented and strengthened ethnic divisions. In the investigation, a number of specific questions are addressed.

• 1) Have the power-sharing institutions maintained or reduced the importance of ethno-national (Protestant British versus Catholic Irish) campaigning and voting at election time? The study compares the strength of ethno-national voting over the 1998-2015 period by linking the 2015 study to earlier ESRC funded studies in 1998 and 2003. The project assesses whether there has been an increase over time in 'cross bloc' voting (Protestants giving lower preference votes to nationalist parties, or Catholics giving lower preference votes to unionist parties). Also, it assesses whether the importance of ethno-national ideology (voting on the basis of nationalist versus unionist beliefs) has become more or less important over time. Furthermore, it compares ethno-national ideology to non-conflict ideologies (such as economic left-right views or moral liberal-conservative views).
• 2) Is electoral accountability possible? If there is only one party in government, it is easy for voters to identify who to hold responsible for government performance. In coalition governments it is harder for voters to clearly see which party to blame if things are going badly (or reward if things are going well). This difficulty is particularly acute when all of the parties are in Government and none are in Opposition, as is the case in Northern Ireland. We assess whether it is actually possible for voters to hold decision-makers to account in such a context.
• 3) Is there an emotional basis to voting? Following on from questions 1 and 2 the project assesses the conditions under which voters rely on either ethno-national voting or peformance-based voting. It investigates the role of emotions and assess whether anger is associated with voting on the basis of the ethno-national conflict while fear is associated with performance-based voting.
• 4) Does power-sharing discourage participation? Does the absence of a clear Opposition lead to reluctance to engage in politics? Also, does the sense that powersharing benefits one community over the other lead to alienation from politics, or non-electoral forms of political protest?
• 5) What are Northern Ireland citizens' attitudes to political reform (such as developing a strong Opposition that would hold the Government to account, or the regulation of sensitive cultural matters such as flag flying and parades)? How do citizens form such attitudes? Why is it that disagreement with suggested reform can spiral into violent street protest?

Answering these questions is important for understanding how democracy operates in the sensitive setting of Northern Ireland. The answers are also important for broader understanding of how to respond to violent ethnic conflict around the world. The 'Northern Ireland Model' is often held up as an impressive example of successful power-sharing and peace building. This analysis will provide a detailed critique of the quality of electoral democracy in the Northern Ireland example that will be important for peace builders around the world (including organisations such as the United Nations). The project will also maximise the relevance of the work for ordinary citizens in Northern Ireland, second level school teachers and students, Northern Ireland newspapers, documentary makers, and the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Information about further research by the same team is available on the Queen's University Belfast Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2016 webpages.

The protected characteristics of disabled and non-disabled people in England and Wales, using Census 2021 data. Data estimates provided are as on Census Day, 21 March 2021.

To ensure that individuals cannot be identified in the data, counts and populations have been rounded to the nearest 5, and counts under 10 have not been included. All figures are individually rounded. Totals may not sum exactly because of this rounding.

Age groups are based on an individual's age on their last birthday, as of Census Day, 21 March 2021. The age groups used reflect the European Standard Population (2013).

Age-standardised percentage

The age-standardised percentage of disabled people is that which would have occurred if the observed age-specific percentage of disability had applied in the European Standard Population (ESP).

Age-specific percentage

Age-specific percentage is calculated for each age group:

Mk = (dk / pk) x 100%

where:

Mk = percentage of disabled people in age group k

dk = the number of disabled people in age group k

pk = Census 2021 population in age group k

k = age group

Category

The measures of disability, ethnic group, legal partnership status, religion or sexual orientation in Census 2021 enable different categorisations of responses to the question. These provide different levels of detail from the responses provided.

Count

The count is the number of usual residents in each category (Disabled, Non-disabled, Disabled; limited a lot, Disabled; limited a little, Non-disabled; with non-limiting condition, Non-disabled; no condition), sex, age group and geographic breakdown. To ensure that individuals cannot be identified in the data, counts and populations have been rounded to the nearest 5, and counts under 10 have not been included..

Disability

The definition of disability used in the 2021 Census is aligned with the definition of disability under the Equality Act (2010). A person is considered disabled if they self-report having a physical or mental health condition or illness that has lasted or is expected to last 12 months or more, and that this reduces their ability to carry out day-to-day activities. The detailed response categories are:

• Non-disabled; no condition.
• Non-disabled; with non-limiting condition.
• Disabled; limited a little.
• Disabled; limited a lot.

Ethnic group

The ethnic group that the person completing the census feels they belong to. This could be based on their culture, family background, identity, or physical appearance. There were two stages to the ethnic group question. The respondent identifies first through one of the following high-level options before selecting a tick-box:

• Asian, Asian British, or Asian Welsh
• Black, Black British, Black Welsh, Caribbean or African
• Mixed or Multiple
• White
• Other ethnic group

Following this, respondents could choose 1 out of 19 tick-box response categories, including write-in response options.

Legal partnership status

Classifies a person according to their legal marital or registered civil partnership status on Census Day, 21 March 2021. The six categories are:

• Civil partnership.
• Divorced or formerly in a civil partnership.
• Married.
• Never married and never registered a civil partnership.
• Separated, but still legally married or still legally in a civil partnership.
• Widowed or surviving partner from a civil partnership.

Population

The population is the number of usual residents of each sex, age group and geographic breakdown. These have been rounded.

Religion

The religion people connect or identify with (their religious affiliation), whether or not they practise or have belief in it. The nine categories are:

• No religion.
• Christian (including Church of England, Catholic, Protestant and all other Christian denominations).
• Buddhist.
• Hindu.
• Jewish.
• Muslim.
• Sikh.
• Other religion.
• Not answered.

Sexual orientation

Sexual orientation is an umbrella term covering sexual identity, attraction, and behaviour. For an individual respondent, these may not be the same. The five categories are:

• Straight or heterosexual.
• Gay or lesbian.
• Bisexual.
• All other sexual orientations.
• Not answered.

Usual resident

For Census 2021, a usual resident of the UK is anyone who, on census day, was in the UK and had stayed or intended to stay in the UK for a period of 12 months or more or had a permanent UK address and was outside the UK and intended to be outside the UK for less than 12 months.