We propose a release-augmented dynamic factor model (RA-DFM) that allows to quantify the role of a country's data flow in nowcasting both early Gross Domestic Product (GDP) releases and subsequent revisions of official estimates. We use the RA-DFM to study UK GDP early revision rounds and assemble a comprehensive and novel mixed-frequency dataset that features 12 years of real-time data vintages. The RA-DFM improves over the standard DFM in real time when forecasting the first release each quarter. Economic and survey data help to predict the first revision round.

Graph and download economic data for St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast from Q2 2013 to Q2 2025 about nowcast, projection, real, GDP, rate, indexes, and USA.

This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with large datasets in the presence of model uncertainty. In practice, nowcasting a low-frequency variable with a large number of high-frequency indicators should account for at least two data irregularities: (i) unbalanced data with missing observations at the end of the sample due to publication delays; and (ii) different sampling frequencies of the data. Two model classes suited in this context are factor models based on large datasets and mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions with few predictors. The specification of these models requires several choices related to, amongst other things, the factor estimation method and the number of factors, lag length and indicator selection. Thus there are many sources of misspecification when selecting a particular model, and an alternative would be pooling over a large set of different model specifications. We evaluate the relative performance of pooling and model selection for nowcasting quarterly GDP for six large industrialized countries. We find that the nowcast performance of single models varies considerably over time, in line with the forecasting literature. Model selection based on sequential application of information criteria can outperform benchmarks. However, the results highly depend on the selection method chosen. In contrast, pooling of nowcast models provides an overall very stable nowcast performance over time.

Graph and download economic data for GDPNow (GDPNOW) from Q3 2011 to Q2 2025 about nowcast, projection, headline figure, GDP, rate, and USA.

GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Production: Industrial Turnover Index (ITI): swda: EA 20: MQ & Mfg data was reported at 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 05 May 2025. GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Production: Industrial Turnover Index (ITI): swda: EA 20: MQ & Mfg data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 332 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.392 % in 20 Jan 2025 and a record low of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Production: Industrial Turnover Index (ITI): swda: EA 20: MQ & Mfg data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index (ENI) uses economic content from key monthly economic data releases to forecast the growth of real GDP during that quarter. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For more information, see Grover, Sean P.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; and McCracken, Michael W. “A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth" (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2016/12/05/a-macroeconomic-news-index-for-constructing-nowcasts-of-u-s-real-gross-domestic-product-growth/ )

Replication data for Ashwin et al (2024) Nowcasting euro area GDP with news sentiment: A tale of two crises.

Data and code for the paper is also available on Julian Ashwins Github account

Please note: This is an updated and slightly modified version (1.2): Date: 2024-05-16

GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Retail Sales data was reported at 4.866 % in 12 May 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 5.466 % for 05 May 2025. GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Retail Sales data is updated weekly, averaging 4.928 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 332 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10.194 % in 07 Apr 2025 and a record low of 2.408 % in 27 Sep 2021. GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Retail Sales data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

United States - St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast was 1.51000 % Chg. at Annual Rate in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast reached a record high of 19.45000 in July of 2020 and a record low of -31.28000 in April of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on May of 2025.

This article proposes a test to determine whether “big data” nowcasting methods, which have become an important tool to many public and private institutions, are monotonically improving as new information becomes available. The test is the first to formalize existing evaluation procedures from the nowcasting literature. We place particular emphasis on models involving estimated factors, since factor-based methods are a leading case in the high-dimensional empirical nowcasting literature, although our test is still applicable to small-dimensional set-ups like bridge equations and MIDAS models. Our approach extends a recent methodology for testing many moment inequalities to the case of nowcast monotonicity testing, which allows the number of inequalities to grow with the sample size. We provide results showing the conditions under which both parameter estimation error and factor estimation error can be accommodated in this high-dimensional setting when using the pseudo out-of-sample approach. The finite sample performance of our test is illustrated using a wide range of Monte Carlo simulations, and we conclude with an empirical application of nowcasting U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and five GDP sub-components. Our test results confirm monotonicity for all but one sub-component (government spending), suggesting that the factor-augmented model may be misspecified for this GDP constituent. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

This is replication files for the paper "A Multi-Factor GDP Nowcast Model for India". The Readme file contains the details about the steps required by the codes to replicate the results.

Canada GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Current Quarter data was reported at 1.943 % in 12 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.918 % for 05 May 2025. Canada GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Current Quarter data is updated weekly, averaging 2.477 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 332 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.495 % in 23 Aug 2021 and a record low of -8.893 % in 24 Aug 2020. Canada GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Current Quarter data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Graph and download economic data for Nowcast for Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCENOW) from Q3 2011 to Q2 2025 about nowcast, projection, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, real, rate, and USA.

The Nowcast for Real Personal Consumption Expenditures uses a nowcasting model to synthesize the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow release complements the quarterly GDP release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The Atlanta Fed recalculates and updates their GDPNow forecasts (called “nowcasts”) throughout the quarter as new data are released, up until the BEA releases its “advance estimate” of GDP for that quarter. The St. Louis Fed constructs a quarterly time series for this dataset, in which both historical and current observations values are combined. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter.

For futher information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductNowcast: FRB Atlanta Forecast: Evolution: GDPNow: saar: QoQ data was reported at 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 05 May 2025. United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductNowcast: FRB Atlanta Forecast: Evolution: GDPNow: saar: QoQ data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Jan 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 279 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 51.517 % in 06 Jul 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. United States Unemployment Rate Nowcast: sa: Contribution:(GDP) Gross Domestic ProductNowcast: FRB Atlanta Forecast: Evolution: GDPNow: saar: QoQ data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Unemployment Rate.

GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Business Survey data was reported at 3.500 % in 12 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.115 % for 05 May 2025. GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Business Survey data is updated weekly, averaging 4.970 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 332 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.457 % in 29 Jun 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % in 28 Sep 2020. GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Business Survey data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Business Survey: Business Climate for Germany: sa: Business Situation Index data was reported at 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 05 May 2025. GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Business Survey: Business Climate for Germany: sa: Business Situation Index data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 332 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025 and a record low of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. GDP Nowcast: swda: YoY: Contribution: Business Survey: Business Climate for Germany: sa: Business Situation Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Contribution: Economic Expectation data was reported at 1.064 % in 05 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.566 % for 28 Apr 2025. GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Contribution: Economic Expectation data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 05 May 2025, with 331 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.899 % in 10 Apr 2023 and a record low of 0.000 % in 31 Mar 2025. GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Contribution: Economic Expectation data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Contribution: Retail Sales: Johnson Redbook Index data was reported at 0.000 % in 05 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 28 Apr 2025. GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Contribution: Retail Sales: Johnson Redbook Index data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 05 May 2025, with 331 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.277 % in 29 Jul 2019 and a record low of 0.000 % in 05 May 2025. GDP Nowcast: saar: YoY: Contribution: Retail Sales: Johnson Redbook Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Japan GDP Nowcast: sa: YoY: Next Quarter data was reported at 1.867 % in 12 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.753 % for 05 May 2025. Japan GDP Nowcast: sa: YoY: Next Quarter data is updated weekly, averaging 0.615 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 332 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.186 % in 22 Mar 2021 and a record low of -9.653 % in 30 Mar 2020. Japan GDP Nowcast: sa: YoY: Next Quarter data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Japan – Table JP.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).