Population projection data for New South Wales to the year 2031. Data is provided at Local Government Area (LGA) level.

Transport for NSW provides projections of population and dwellings at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for NSW. The latest version is Travel Zone Projections 2024 (TZP24), released in January 2025.

TZP24 replaces the previously published TZP22.

The projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions.

The TZP24 Population & Dwellings Projections dataset covers the following variables:

• Estimated Resident Population

• Structural Private Dwellings (Regional NSW only)

• Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories & by Sex

• Population in Non-Private Dwellings

The projections in this release, TZP24, are presented annually from 2021 to 2031 and 5-yearly from 2031 to 2066, and are in TZ21 geography.

Please note, TZP24 is based on best available data as at early 2024, and the projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021.

Key Data Inputs used in TZP24:

• 2024 NSW Population Projections – NSW Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure

• 2021 Census data - Australian Bureau of Statistics (including dwellings by occupancy, total dwellings by Mesh Block, household sizes, private dwellings by occupancy, population age and gender, persons by place of usual residence)

For a summary of the TZP24 projection method please refer to the TZP24 Factsheet.

For more detail on the projection process please refer to the TZP24 Technical Guide.

Additional land use information for workforce and employment as well as Travel Zone 2021 boundaries for NSW (TZ21) and concordance files are also available for download on the Open Data Hub.

Visualisations of the population projections are available on the Transport for NSW Website under Data and research/Reference Information.

Cautions

The TZP24 dataset represents one view of the future aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions and population and employment projections.

The projections are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.

• TZP24 is a strategic state-wide dataset and caution should be exercised when considering results at detailed breakdowns.

• The TZP24 outputs represent a point in time set of projections (as at early 2024).

• The projections are not government targets.

• Travel Zone (TZ) level outputs are projections only and should be used as a guide. As with all small area data, aggregating of travel zone projections to higher geographies leads to more robust results.

• As a general rule, TZ-level projections are illustrative of a possible future only.

• More specific advice about data reliability for the specific variables projected is provided in the “Read Me” page of the Excel format summary spreadsheets on the TfNSW Open Data Hub.

• Caution is advised when comparing TZP24 with the previous set of projections (TZP22) due to addition of new data sources for the most recent years, and adjustments to methodology.

Further cautions and notes can be found in the TZP24 Technical Guide

Important note:

The Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure (DPHI) published the 2024 NSW Population Projections in November 2024. As per DPHI’s published projections, the following variables are excluded from the published TZP24 Population and Dwellings Projections:

• Structural Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in 43 councils across Greater Sydney, Illawarra-Shoalhaven, Central Coast, Lower Hunter and Greater Newcastle

• Occupied Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in NSW.

Furthermore, in TZP24, the Structural Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Implied Dwelling projections while the Occupied Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Households projections at SA2 level prepared by DPHI.

The above variables are available upon request by contacting model.selection@transport.nsw.gov.au - Attention Place Forecasting.

Projection data for New South Wales are available to the year 2041; and for Regional NSW, Sydney, Illawarra, Lower Hunter & Central Coast and all Local Government Areas (LGA) to the year 2031.

Individual file tabs contain summary population projection data for New South Wales, projection regions and all LGAs. Individual file tabs are also available for population projections by five-year age group and sex for New South Wales and the projection regions. Five year age group data are available for LGAs with populations greater than 3,000 in 2011. For smaller LGAs, age group data are provided for four age groups: 0-14, 15-44, 45-64, 65+.

For more information, including reports, frequently asked questions and an information brochure, please see http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography/Population-Projections

This dataset presents a summary of the projected population for 5-year periods between the years of 2011 and 2036 for the state of New South Wales (NSW). The data is presented as aggregations following the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) 2016 Local Government Areas (LGA). Population projections provide a picture of the population as it may develop in future years. They provide an indication of the size and age-sex structure of the future population if specified assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration are realised. Population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors (whether in Australia or overseas) might have on demographic behaviour. For more information please read the Population Projections User Guide. Please note: AURIN has spatially enabled the original data. Population numbers are rounded to the nearest 50. They should not be taken to be accurate to that level of detail.

The BTS is the primary source of forecasts of population and dwellings at the small area (travel zone) level for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area. This area includes the Sydney Greater Capital City Statistical Area, and the Illawarra and Hunter regions. There are 2,949 travel zones in the Sydney GMA.

The latest September 2014 Release Population Forecasts provide forecasts at travel zone level for the following variables:

• Population (Estimated Resident Population) by 5-year Age categories by Sex

• Occupied Private Dwellings (Households)

• Population in Occupied Private Dwellings

• Population in Non-Private Dwellings

The forecasts in this release are five-yearly, from 2011 to 2041.

The NSW population projections are a scenario based on available evidence. They are not a target or a representation of Government intent. They represent possible demographic futures based on the best assessment of how the NSW population may change over time, including population size, age profile and residential location. The projections reflect current planning frameworks and strategies in place, and the potential demographic outcomes of contemporary decisions. They represent a basis from which to plan from.

This dataset presents projected population following the three projection series - the main projection, a high and a low projection series for 5-year periods between the years of 2011 and 2036 for the state of New South Wales (NSW). The data is presented as aggregations following the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) 2016 Local Government Areas (LGA).

The various projection series show the impact on the NSW population when the assumed levels of births, deaths and migration are changed.

Population projections provide a picture of the population as it may develop in future years. They provide an indication of the size and age-sex structure of the future population if specified assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration are realised.

Population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors (whether in Australia or overseas) might have on demographic behaviour.

For more information please read the Population Projections User Guide.Please note:

• AURIN has spatially enabled the original data.

• Population numbers are rounded to the nearest 50. They should not be taken to be accurate to that level of detail.

Projection data for New South Wales are available to the year 2041; and for Regional NSW, Sydney, Illawarra, Lower Hunter & Central Coast and all Local Government Areas (LGA) to the year 2031.

Individual file tabs contain information for New South Wales, projection regions and all LGAs about the projected number of households and implied dwellings, projected household types and projected average household size. For New South Wales and the projection regions, population living arrangement characteristics are also provided.

For more information, including reports, frequently asked questions and an information brochure, please see http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/Research-and-Demography/Demography/Population-Projections

New South Wales population and dwellings projection aggregated at state level

This dataset contains projected population figures from Transport for NSW’s Travel Zone Projection 2016 (TZP2016) model (formally known as LU16*). The data includes: • Estimated Resident Population …Show full descriptionThis dataset contains projected population figures from Transport for NSW’s Travel Zone Projection 2016 (TZP2016) model (formally known as LU16*). The data includes: • Estimated Resident Population (ERP) (including 5-year age categories by sex); • Population in occupied private dwellings (POPD) • Population in non-private dwellings (PNPD); and • Occupied private dwellings (OPD) The TZP2016 projections reflect the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA) and are provided on a 5-yearly basis for the period 2011-2056.

Australia Population: Resident: Estimated: Annual: New South Wales: Greater Sydney data was reported at 5,132,355.000 Person in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 5,024,923.000 Person for 2016. Australia Population: Resident: Estimated: Annual: New South Wales: Greater Sydney data is updated yearly, averaging 4,643,072.500 Person from Jun 2006 (Median) to 2017, with 12 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5,132,355.000 Person in 2017 and a record low of 4,256,161.000 Person in 2006. Australia Population: Resident: Estimated: Annual: New South Wales: Greater Sydney data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.G002: Estimated Resident Population.

This dataset presents a summary of the projected number of households for 5-year periods between the years of 2011 and 2036 for the state of New South Wales (NSW). The data is presented as aggregations following the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) 2016 Local Government Areas (LGA). Household projections show the number of households that would form if demographic trends continue and if assumptions about living arrangements are realised over the projection period. A household is two or more people who share a dwelling (house, apartment, townhouse, caravan, etc.) and share food and cooking facilities, and other essentials. Household projections show the future number and type of households living in private dwellings. Private dwellings are self-contained accommodation such as houses, apartments, mobile homes or other substantial structures. It does not include accommodation such as boarding houses, nursing homes or prisons. The household projections also include the implied dwelling demand for those households. This is the likely number of private dwellings needed to accommodate future population-driven demand. For more information please read the Household Projections User Guide.Please note:

AURIN has spatially enabled the original data.

Household and dwelling numbers are rounded to the nearest 50. They should not be taken to be accurate to that level of detail.

This report, which was prepared by the New South Wales Population Projections Group, contains the most recent population projections for the State and its regions, based on an assessment of current and past trends in fertility, mortality and migration. The projections result from an extensive analysis of the final 1981 census figures and a careful review of the assumptions upon which the projections are based.

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Note:

This description is extracted from Concise Guide to the State Archives of New South Wales, 3rd Edition 2000.

Transport for NSW provides projections of employment at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for NSW. The latest version is Travel Zone Projections 2024 (TZP24), released in January 2025.

TZP24 replaces the previously published TZP22.

The projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions.

TZP24 Employment Projections are for employed persons by place of work. They are provided by Industry using two breakdowns:

• 33 industry categories (equivalent to the ABS 1-digit Australia and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) codes with the exception of Manufacturing which is at 2-digit level).

• 4 Broad Industry Categories (groupings of the above).

The projections in this release, TZP24, are presented annually from 2021 to 2031 and 5-yearly from 2031 to 2066, and are in TZ21 geography.

Please note, TZP24 is based on best available data as at early 2024, and the projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021.

Key Data Inputs used:

• TZP24 Workforce Projections

• Census 2021 Place of Work by Destination Zone - ABS

• NSW Intergenerational Report - NSW Treasury

• SA4 Employment by industry projections - Victoria University

• Future Employment Development Database (FEDD) - a custom dataset compiled by TfNSW between August 2023 and February 2024, that presents the number of jobs expected from major projects based on publicly available documents.

For a summary of the TZP24 Projections method please refer to the TZP24 Factsheet.

For more detail on the projection process please refer to the TZP24 Technical Guide.

Additional land use information for population and workforce as well as Travel Zone 2021 boundaries for NSW (TZ21) and concordance files are also available for download on the Open Data Hub.

Visualisations of the employment projections are available on the Transport for NSW Website.

Cautions

The TZP24 dataset represents one view of the future aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions for population and employment projections.

The projections are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure, but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.

• TZP24 is a strategic state-wide dataset and caution should be exercised when considering results at detailed breakdowns.

• The TZP24 outputs represent a point in time set of projections (as at early -2024).

• The projections are not government targets.

• Travel Zone (TZ) level outputs are projections only and should be used as a guide. As with all small area data, aggregating of travel zone projections to higher geographies leads to more robust results.

• As a general rule, TZ-level projections are illustrative of a possible future only.

• More specific advice about data reliability for the specific variables projected is provided in the “Read Me” page of the Excel format summary spreadsheets on the TfNSW Open Data Hub.

• Caution is advised when comparing TZP24 with the previous set of projections (TZP22) due to addition of new data sources for the most recent years, and adjustments to methodology.

Further cautions and notes can be found in the TZP24 Technical Guide.

This dataset presents projected population following the three projection series - the main projection, a high and a low projection series for 5-year periods between the years of 2011 and 2036 for the state of New South Wales (NSW). The data is presented as aggregations following the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) 2016 Local Government Areas (LGA). The various projection series show the impact on the NSW population when the assumed levels of births, deaths and migration are changed. Population projections provide a picture of the population as it may develop in future years. They provide an indication of the size and age-sex structure of the future population if specified assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration are realised. Population projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors (whether in Australia or overseas) might have on demographic behaviour. For more information please read the Population Projections User Guide.Please note: AURIN has spatially enabled the original data.

This dataset presents projected implied dwelling requirements for 5-year periods between the years of 2011 and 2036 for the state of New South Wales (NSW). The data is presented as aggregations following the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) 2016 Local Government Areas (LGA). Household projections show the number of households that would form if demographic trends continue and if assumptions about living arrangements are realised over the projection period. A household is two or more people who share a dwelling (house, apartment, townhouse, caravan, etc.) and share food and cooking facilities, and other essentials. Household projections show the future number and type of households living in private dwellings. Private dwellings are self-contained accommodation such as houses, apartments, mobile homes or other substantial structures. It does not include accommodation such as boarding houses, nursing homes or prisons. The household projections also include the implied dwelling demand for those households. This is the likely number of private dwellings needed to accommodate future population-driven demand. For more information please read the Household Projections User Guide.Please note:

AURIN has spatially enabled the original data.

Household and dwelling numbers are rounded to the nearest 50. They should not be taken to be accurate to that level of detail.

ABS Statistics about the population, density and components of change (births, deaths, migration) for Australia's capital cities and regions.This dataset is based on ABS Population estimates and components by LGA Excel files as data sources.

Transport Performance and Analytics (TPA) provides projections of workforce at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA).

The GMA includes the Sydney Greater Capital City Statistical Area (GCCSA), the Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven SA4, Illawarra SA4, Newcastle and Lake Macquarie SA4, and Lower Hunter, Port Stephens, and Maitland SA3s, as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). TPA workforce projections are five-yearly, from 2011 to 2056 and relate to usual residents of the GMA aged 15 years and over who are employed. They are estimates of employed people based on where they reside. TPA also produces employment projections based on the workplace or job location. They refer to persons aged 15 years and over, working in the GMA regardless of their place of usual residence. The majority of the persons employed in the GMA also reside in the GMA.

Factors considered in the estimation of workforce projections include: population by age and gender; participation rates; unemployment rates; historical labour force data; past trends of employment in each industry and the forecasts of industry growth or decline in each region.

In June 2022, it was estimated that around 7.3 percent of Australians were aged between 25 and 29, and the same applied to people aged between 30 and 34. All in all, about 55 percent of Australia’s population was aged 35 years or older as of June 2022. At the same time, the age distribution of the country also shows that the share of children under 14 years old was still higher than that of people over 65 years old. A breakdown of Australia’s population growth Australia is the sixth-largest country in the world, yet with a population of around 26 million inhabitants, it is only sparsely populated. Since the 1970s, the population growth of Australia has remained fairly constant. While there was a slight rise in the Australian death rate in 2022, the birth rate of the country decreased after a slight rise in the previous year. The fact that the birth rate is almost double the size of its death rate gives the country one of the highest natural population growth rates of any high-income country.
National distribution of the population Australia’s population is expected to surpass 28 million people by 2028. The majority of its inhabitants live in the major cities. The most populated states are New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland. Together, they account for over 75 percent of the population in Australia.

Chart and table of population level and growth rate for the Newcastle-Maitland, Australia metro area from 1950 to 2025.