New Zealand has *** of the highest house price-to-income ratios in the world; nonetheless, since the first quarter of 2022, the country's house price-to-income ratio started to trend downward. In the third quarter of 2024, the ratio was ***, a slight decrease from the same quarter of the previous year. This ratio was calculated by dividing nominal house prices by nominal disposable income per head and is considered a measure of affordability. Homeownership dream New Zealand has been in what is widely considered a housing bubble. The disproportionately large increases in residential house prices have placed the dream of owning their own home out of reach for many in the country. In 2024, around ** percent of residential properties were sold for over a million New Zealand dollars. The majority of mortgage lending in the country went to owner-occupiers where the property was not their first home, with first-home buyers often struggling to secure a loan. In general, only New Zealand residents and citizens can buy homes in the country to live in, with new regulations tightening investment activity in that market. Rent affordability Due to New Zealand's high property prices, many individuals and families are stuck renting for prolonged periods. However, with rent prices increasing across the country and the share of monthly income spent on rent trending upwards in tandem with a highly competitive rental market, renting is becoming a less appealing prospect for many. The Auckland and Bay of Plenty regions had the highest weekly rent prices across the country as of December 2024, with the Southland region recording the lowest rent prices per week.

Portugal, Canada, and the United States were the countries with the highest house price to income ratio in 2024. In all three countries, the index exceeded 130 index points, while the average for all OECD countries stood at 116.2 index points. The index measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing nominal house price by nominal disposable income per head, with 2015 set as a base year when the index amounted to 100. An index value of 120, for example, would mean that house price growth has outpaced income growth by 20 percent since 2015. How have house prices worldwide changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? House prices started to rise gradually after the global financial crisis (2007–2008), but this trend accelerated with the pandemic. The countries with advanced economies, which usually have mature housing markets, experienced stronger growth than countries with emerging economies. Real house price growth (accounting for inflation) peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of the gain. Although, many countries experienced a decline in house prices, the global house price index shows that property prices in 2023 were still substantially higher than before COVID-19. Renting vs. buying In the past, house prices have grown faster than rents. However, the home affordability has been declining notably, with a direct impact on rental prices. As people struggle to buy a property of their own, they often turn to rental accommodation. This has resulted in a growing demand for rental apartments and soaring rental prices.

New Zealand NZ: Price to Income Ratio: sa data was reported at 117.981 2015=100 in Sep 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 120.692 2015=100 for Jun 2024. New Zealand NZ: Price to Income Ratio: sa data is updated quarterly, averaging 79.512 2015=100 from Mar 1986 (Median) to Sep 2024, with 155 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 143.218 2015=100 in Dec 2021 and a record low of 46.765 2015=100 in Mar 1987. New Zealand NZ: Price to Income Ratio: sa data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s New Zealand – Table NZ.OECD.AHPI: House Price Index: Seasonally Adjusted: OECD Member: Quarterly. Nominal house prices divided by nominal disposable income per head. Net household disposable income is used. The population data come from the OECD national accounts database.

New Zealand NZ: Standardised Price-Income Ratio: sa data was reported at 146.477 Ratio in Sep 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 149.843 Ratio for Jun 2024. New Zealand NZ: Standardised Price-Income Ratio: sa data is updated quarterly, averaging 98.716 Ratio from Mar 1986 (Median) to Sep 2024, with 155 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 177.810 Ratio in Dec 2021 and a record low of 58.060 Ratio in Mar 1987. New Zealand NZ: Standardised Price-Income Ratio: sa data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s New Zealand – Table NZ.OECD.AHPI: House Price Index: Seasonally Adjusted: OECD Member: Quarterly. Nominal house prices divided by nominal disposable income per head. Net household disposable income is used. The population data come from the OECD national accounts database. The long-term average is calculated over the whole period available when the indicator begins after 1980 or after 1980 if the indicator is longer. This value is used as a reference value. The ratio is calculated by dividing the indicator source on this long-term average, and indexed to a reference value equal to 100.

Standardised Price-Income Ratio：SA在09-01-2024达146.477Ratio，相较于06-01-2024的149.843Ratio有所下降。Standardised Price-Income Ratio：SA数据按季更新，03-01-1986至09-01-2024期间平均值为98.716Ratio，共155份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于12-01-2021，达177.810Ratio，而历史最低值则出现于03-01-1987，为58.060Ratio。CEIC提供的Standardised Price-Income Ratio：SA数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development，数据归类于全球数据库的新西兰 – Table NZ.OECD.AHPI: House Price Index: Seasonally Adjusted: OECD Member: Quarterly。

Key information about House Prices Growth

• New Zealand house prices dropped 0.9% YoY in Sep 2024, following an increase of 1.5% YoY in the previous quarter.
• YoY growth data is updated quarterly, available from Dec 1990 to Sep 2024, with an average growth rate of 5.3%.
• House price data reached an all-time high of 30.5% in Sep 2021 and a record low of -12.1% in Mar 2023.

The price to earning (PE) ratios of REITs in New Zealand was lower than the PE ratio of the total market, but slightly higher than the real estate sector as of **********. REITs are companies that own or finance rental real estate. One of their major benefits is liquidity: Though not all REITs are publicly traded, many of the major ones are, which allows investors to easily buy and sell shares. Because REITs pay out most of their taxable income to shareholders as dividends, they typically do not pay any corporate income tax. As of **********, the PE ratio of REITs in New Zealand stood at ****, with the earnings of the market forecast to grow by **** percent annually. The PE ratio is a valuation metric which is calculated as the ratio of the total market cap to the total earnings. A higher PE ratio means that the market cap has grown higher than the earnings - a sign of high investor confidence, but also that the market may be overpriced.

This report analyses mortgage affordability in New Zealand, which is presented as the proportion of a household's monthly earnings left over after a mortgage repayment. This is calculated using the average monthly repayment for a standard 30-year loan on the median house price with a 20% deposit. An increase in the percentage indicates the average mortgage becoming more affordable for households. The data for this report is calculated from information sourced from Statistics New Zealand (Tatauranga Aotearoa) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Te Putea Matua) and is presented as a percentage of average household earnings.

Demand for financial asset broking services has been mixed over the past few years. Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity peaked in 2021, spurred by digitisation trends and low interest rates. More recently, inflationary pressures and subdued business sentiment have curtailed M&A plans. Still, demand in the technology and telecommunications sectors, driven by rising interest in AI, continues to offer respite within the broader M&A landscape. Meanwhile, mortgage broking plunged along with new residential mortgage lending over the two years through 2023-24 as dwindling housing affordability weighed on mortgage uptake. However, mortgage activity has since rebounded, as successive cash rate cuts from August 2024 have improved housing affordability and stimulated property transactions. New Zealand’s small market size and strong competition from foreign exchanges, notably the ASX, constrain industry revenue and profitability expansion. Despite rocky market conditions, some segments, like capital raising, have outperformed other investment banking services. Companies seeking to fortify their balance sheets amid a harsh trading environment have bolstered capital-raising activity. Amendments to the NZX’s listing rules in January 2024 to allow accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offers (ANREOs) have provided issuers more flexibility in their fundraising activities, further stimulating capital-raising activity. This shift and mounting appetite for capital-raising activity have partly offset other segments' decline. Overall, industry revenue is expected to nosedive at an annualised 5.8% to $556.4 million over the five years through 2025-26. Nevertheless, improved mortgage uptake and a widespread recovery in the housing market are anticipated to contribute to a 2.2% revenue rise in 2025-26. Stabilising macroeconomic conditions and easing inflation are forecast to improve economic and monetary policy certainty. This environment is likely to narrow valuation gaps between targets and acquirers, supporting a moderate uptick in M&A activity. Nonetheless, heightened recession concerns fuelled by recent US reciprocal tariffs are tempering investor sentiment, limiting the overall momentum for deals. New Zealand’s smaller market size and fewer opportunities on the NZX will continue driving domestic companies to list on larger exchanges like the ASX. While upcoming reforms – like the removal of the requirement to publish prospective financial information for NZX IPOs – may help stimulate the exchange's IPO pipeline, it's unlikely to match foreign markets’ capital appeal. Meanwhile, housing market policies like partially restoring interest deductibility for residential investment loans, shortening the bright-line test and increasing land availability are poised to reignite property transactions. That’s why revenue is projected to rise at an annualised 2.9% to $643.0 million through the end of 2030-31.