By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data was reported at 0.840 % in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.180 % for Feb 2025. Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data is updated monthly, averaging 0.150 % from Jun 1967 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 694 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % in Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % in Mar 2021. Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S089: Jeremy Piger Smooth Recession Probabilities.

View an estimate of the probability of recession based on employment, industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data was reported at 2.250 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.130 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data is updated monthly, averaging 4.620 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 16.300 % in May 1981 and a record low of 0.010 % in Dec 2011. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

United States NBER: Recorded Recession data was reported at 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for Sep 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data is updated monthly, averaging 0.000 Unit from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in Jun 2009 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability. An interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data was reported at 0.856 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.829 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data is updated monthly, averaging 1.413 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.146 % in Sep 1982 and a record low of -3.505 % in Dec 1980. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

Recession Experience by Country.

According to a 2019 global survey, 47.2 percent of logistics industry professionals thought a global recession was likely to happen in 2020. Only 2.1 percent of them believed it was very unlikely.

Between the first quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2022, the relative probability of recession in G7 economies was the highest in the first quarter of 2020, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The risk of recession started to increase again in the first quarter of 2022, due to the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities在2025-03达0.840%，相较于2025-02的0.180%有所增长。Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities数据按月度更新，1967-06至2025-03期间平均值为0.150%，共694份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于2020-04，达100.000%，而历史最低值则出现于2021-03，为0.000%。CEIC提供的Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis，数据归类于Global Database的美国 – Table US.S089: Jeremy Piger Smooth Recession Probabilities。

Probability of Recession：欧元区在03-01-2025达1.506%，相较于02-01-2025的1.828%有所下降。Probability of Recession：欧元区数据按月更新，01-01-1996至03-01-2025期间平均值为5.278%，共351份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于03-01-2009，达70.141%，而历史最低值则出现于07-01-2021，为0.016%。CEIC提供的Probability of Recession：欧元区数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于CEIC Data，数据归类于世界趋势数据库的CEIC先行指标 – Table EU.S002: Probability of Recession: Euro Area。

This dataset contains Economic Policy Uncertainty and Recession Probabilities, Academic Data dataset contains the series for the following categories Recession Probabilities, Economic Policy Uncertainty Accessed on 2014 July 25

衰退可能性在10-01-2019达14.120%，相较于09-01-2019的14.505%有所下降。衰退可能性数据按月更新，01-01-1960至10-01-2019期间平均值为7.668%，共718份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于12-01-1981，达95.405%，而历史最低值则出现于09-01-1983，为0.080%。CEIC提供的衰退可能性数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of New York，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – 表US.S021：衰退可能性。

BackgroundData on the potential influence of macroeconomic recessions on maternal diseases during pregnancy are scarce. We aimed to assess potential change in prevalence of pregnancy-induced hypertensive disorders (preeclampsia and gestational hypertension) during the first years of the major national economic recession in Iceland, which started abruptly in October 2008.Methods and FindingsWomen whose pregnancies resulted in live singleton births in Iceland in 2005–2012 constituted the study population (N = 35,211). Data on pregnancy-induced hypertensive disorders were obtained from the Icelandic Medical Birth Register and use of antihypertensive drugs during pregnancy, including β-blockers and calcium channel blockers, from the Icelandic Medicines Register. With the pre-collapse period as reference, we used logistic regression analysis to assess change in pregnancy-induced hypertensive disorders and use of antihypertensives during the first four years after the economic collapse, adjusting for demographic and pregnancy characteristics, taking aggregate economic indicators into account. Compared with the pre-collapse period, we observed an increased prevalence of gestational hypertension in the first year following the economic collapse (2.4% vs. 3.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.47; 95 percent confidence interval [95%CI] 1.13–1.91) but not in the subsequent years. The association disappeared completely when we adjusted for aggregate unemployment rate (aOR 1.04; 95% CI 0.74–1.47). Similarly, there was an increase in prescription fills of β-blockers in the first year following the collapse (1.9% vs.3.1%; aOR 1.43; 95% CI 1.07–1.90), which disappeared after adjusting for aggregate unemployment rate (aOR 1.05; 95% CI 0.72–1.54). No changes were observed for preeclampsia or use of calcium channel blockers between the pre- and post-collapse periods.ConclusionsOur data suggest a transient increased risk of gestational hypertension and use of β-blockers among pregnant women in Iceland in the first and most severe year of the national economic recession.

View the spread between 10-Year and 3-month Treasury Constant Maturities, which is used to predict recession probabilities.

ATT of suicide for BFP participation in the original cohort from 2004–2015.