While major energy institutions IEA, OPEC, and EIA used to have little differences in their long-term growth projections for the oil market, their demand outlooks have become more divergent in recent years. In its 2024 outlook, OPEC expected global oil demand to increase to more than 113 million barrels per day by 2030. In comparison, the IEA's stated policies scenario (STEPS) from 2024 sees oil demand coming to merely 101.7 million barrels per day by 2030. A figure that was similar to the EIA's latest outlook.

OECD Americas is the region with the greatest oil demand, followed by China. In 2023, daily oil demand in the OECD Americas amounted to 25 million barrels. This figure is set to decrease to 21.5 million barrels by 2050, although it would remain the largest oil consuming region. India is forecast to see the greatest growth in daily oil demand, with figures expected to double by 2050.

By 2029, global oil demand is forecast to reach 112.3 million barrels per day. China is expected to account for 18.4 million barrels of daily oil demand while India is expected to account for 6.9 million barrels worth.

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Italy UP Forecast: Petroleum Demand (PD) data was reported at 3,060.000 Ton mn in 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3,190.000 Ton mn for 2024. Italy UP Forecast: Petroleum Demand (PD) data is updated yearly, averaging 3,360.000 Ton mn from Dec 2017 (Median) to 2025, with 9 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3,380.000 Ton mn in 2020 and a record low of 3,060.000 Ton mn in 2025. Italy UP Forecast: Petroleum Demand (PD) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Unione Petrolifera. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Italy – Table IT.RB010: Energy and Oil Demand: Forecast: Unione Petrolifera.

The International Energy Agency expects worldwide oil demand to increase by some 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025. This estimate from February 2025 is lower than expectations by the EIA and the OPEC.

1. Global oil demand, supply, oil market balance and required amounts of OPEC crude.

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OPEC reduces its 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 210,000 barrels per day, signaling shifts in global market dynamics.

The global oil market is projected to reach USD 2.2 trillion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 3.4% from 2025 to 2033. The increasing demand for oil in various industries such as transportation, energy generation, and petrochemicals is the primary driver of the market growth. The rapid industrialization and urbanization, particularly in emerging economies, further contribute to the rising oil consumption. Technological advancements in oil exploration and production techniques have also enabled the expansion of oil reserves, contributing to the growing market value. Key market trends include the shift towards renewable energy sources and the adoption of electric vehicles, which could potentially restrain the growth of the oil market in the long run. However, the current dependence on oil for transportation and other industries is expected to sustain demand in the near future. The market is segmented by type (crude oil, refined oil) and application (transportation, industrial, residential). The Asia Pacific region is anticipated to remain the largest market for oil due to its high population and rapid economic growth. North America and Europe are also significant markets, driven by the transportation sector and industrial demand, respectively.

Diesel and gasoil account for the highest oil products demand share in the world. In 2023, these products made up some 28.38 percent of total oil demand. This figure is expected to decrease slightly by 2050, with jet fuel and kerosene expected to see the greatest increase in demand shares. Daily global crude oil demand is expected to climb over 100 million barrels in 2023.

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The size of the Process Oil market was valued at USD 4848 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6509.58 million by 2033, with an expected CAGR of 4.3% during the forecast period.

The global demand for crude oil (including biofuels) in 2024 amounted to 103.75 million barrels per day. The source expects economic activity and related oil demand to pick up by the end of the year, with forecast suggesting it could increase to more than 105 million barrels per day. Motor fuels make up majority of oil demand Oil is an important and versatile substance, used in different ways and in different forms for many applications. The road sector is the largest oil consuming sector worldwide. It accounts for nearly one half of the global demand for oil, largely due to reliance on motor spirits made from petroleum. The OPEC projects global oil product demand to reach 120 million barrels per day by 2050, with transportation fuels such as gasoline and diesel expected to remain the most consumed products. Diesel and gasoil demand is forecast to amount to 32.5 million barrels per day in 2050, up from 29 million barrels in 2023. Gasoline demand is forecast at 27 million barrels by 2050. Differences in forecast oil demand widen between major energy institutions Despite oil producing bodies such as the OPEC seeing continued importance for crude oil in the future, other forecast centers have been more moderate in their demand outlooks. For example, between the EIA, IEA, and OPEC, the latter was the only one to expect significant growth for oil demand until 2030.

Italy UP Forecast: ED: Natural Gas data was reported at 62.400 TOE mn in 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 60.700 TOE mn for 2024. Italy UP Forecast: ED: Natural Gas data is updated yearly, averaging 60.800 TOE mn from Dec 2017 (Median) to 2025, with 9 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 62.400 TOE mn in 2025 and a record low of 60.300 TOE mn in 2021. Italy UP Forecast: ED: Natural Gas data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Unione Petrolifera. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Italy – Table IT.RB010: Energy and Oil Demand: Forecast: Unione Petrolifera.

Italy UP Forecast: EC: Industry: Biomasses data was reported at 4,300.000 kcal bn in 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 4,000.000 kcal bn for 2024. Italy UP Forecast: EC: Industry: Biomasses data is updated yearly, averaging 3,100.000 kcal bn from Dec 2017 (Median) to 2025, with 9 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4,300.000 kcal bn in 2025 and a record low of 1,850.000 kcal bn in 2017. Italy UP Forecast: EC: Industry: Biomasses data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Unione Petrolifera. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Italy – Table IT.RB010: Energy and Oil Demand: Forecast: Unione Petrolifera.

The size of the Intermediate Crude Oil market was valued at USD XXX million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD XXX million by 2033, with an expected CAGR of XX% during the forecast period.

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Energy Futures employs economic, and energy supply and demand models, to make projections based on a certain set of assumptions of what we know today about technology, energy and climate policies, human behaviour and the structure of the economy.