As of the fourth quarter of 2024, oil prices in the United Kingdom stood at 74 dollars per barrel, with prices expected to rise to 76.6 dollars a barrel in early 2025, before gradually falling in subsequent quarters.

While major energy institutions IEA, OPEC, and EIA used to have little differences in their long-term growth projections for the oil market, their demand outlooks have become more divergent in recent years. In its 2024 outlook, OPEC expected global oil demand to increase to more than 113 million barrels per day by 2030. In comparison, the IEA's stated policies scenario (STEPS) from 2024 sees oil demand coming to merely 101.7 million barrels per day by 2030. A figure that was similar to the EIA's latest outlook.

The global Crude Oil Flow Improver market was valued at USD 1.82 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 2.77 billion by 2030, registering a CAGR of 5.4% for the forecast period 2023-2030. Market Dynamics of the Crude Oil Flow Improver Market Driving Factor:

Rising demand for crude oil:

Increasing demand for crude oil in petroleum products is helping to expand the Crude Oil Flow Improver market. The demand for crude oil in petroleum products is increasing due to its uses as a fuel in many equipment-like vehicles, heaters, generators, and others. For instance, In India, 249,621.61 TMT of crude oil was processed for petroleum products in 2022. Additionally, it has high demand in the chemical industry as a raw material for manufacturing several chemicals like plastics, polyurethane, and solvents. However, the use of crude oil flow improver in export and import operations helps ensure the efficient and reliable flow of crude oil throughout the transportation, and storage and supports overall logistics of crude oil export and import. Hence, as crude oil demand increases, the market for crude oil improvers will also rise.

Restraining Factor:

Stringent regulation along with fluctuating crude oil prices:

Stringent regulations regarding manufacturing, sales, import, and export of crude oil are expected to hamper the growth of the crude oil flow improver market. For instance, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) set strict standards to prevent oil pollution for crude oil transportation. This regulation includes requirements for double-hulled tankers, oil spill response plans, and limitations on oil discharge. Moreover, fluctuating prices of crude oil due to global supply & demand, government policies, currency exchange rates, geopolitical guidelines, and others are expected to hinder the growth of the crude oil flow improver market. For instance, As per the Ministry of Energy, Saudi Arabia, the largest exporter country of crude oil, will implement an additional voluntary cut in its production of crude oil from 2023-2024, which will affect the prices of crude oil.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Crude Oil Flow Improver Market: The outbreak of Covid-19 has witnessed a significant impact on the Crude Oil Flow Improver market growth. Due to the lockdown and supply chain disruption, the import and export of raw materials were paused or lowered. Transportation restrictions declined the demand for crude oil. As a COFI was demanded by crude oil and the specialty chemical industry, the lowered demand for crude oil negatively impacted the crude oil flow improver market. Also due to the lockdown, many industries closed, and many oil and gas projects were delayed due to economic uncertainty, hampered the crude oil flow improver market. Post-covid, the supply chain runs smoothly as the guidelines were released and the lockdown opened. Export and import of crude oil resumed so the rising global crude oil industry led to the expansion of the COFI market. What is crude oil?

Crude Oil Flow Improver is a chemical additive that is mostly used in the oil and gas industry to enhance the flow capacity of crude oil. Crude oil has a high viscosity and impurities in its natural state that hamper the flow of oil. For that, the COFI is used to enhance the flow of crude oil. Moreover, Crude Oil Flow Improver is also known as a drag-reducing agent (DRA) as it reduces friction and improves the flow efficiency of crude oil in pipelines. Crude oil flow improver is used as a catalyst to decrease viscosity, lower the pour point, and lower the drag coefficient of crude oil.

The annual price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is expected to reach an average of 61.81 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2025, according to a May 2025 forecast. This would be a decrease of roughly 15 U.S. dollar compared to the previous year. In the first months weeks of 2025, weekly crude oil prices largely stayed below 70 U.S. dollars per barrel amid trade tariffs and expected economic downturn. What are benchmark crudes? WTI is often used as a price reference point called a benchmark (or ”marker”) crude. This category includes Brent crude from the North Sea, Dubai Crude, as well as blends in the OPEC reference basket. WTI, Brent, and the OPEC basket have tended to trade closely, but since 2011, Brent has been selling at a higher annual spot price than WTI, largely due to increased oil production in the United States. What causes price volatility? Oil prices are historically volatile. While mostly shaped by demand and supply like all consumer goods, they may also be affected by production limits, a change in U.S. dollar value, and to an extent by market speculation. In 2022, the annual average price for WTI was close to the peak of nearly 100 U.S. dollars recorded in 2008. In the latter year, multiple factors, such as strikes in Nigeria, an oil sale stop in Venezuela, and the continuous increase in oil demand from China were partly responsible for the price surge. Higher oil prices allowed the pursuit of extraction methods previously deemed too expensive and risky, such as shale gas and tight oil production in the U.S. The widespread practice of fracturing source rocks for oil and gas extraction led to the oil glut in 2016 and made the U.S. the largest oil producer in the world.

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The global base oil market was valued at USD 28.92 billion in 2022 and will expand to USD 43.38 billion by 2030, registering a CAGR of 5.2% for the forecast period 2023-2030. Factors Affecting Base Oil Market Growth

Rapid industrialization in developing countries

Rapid industrialization in developing nations like Japan, China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, and others is helping to expand the base oil market growth. China, Indonesia, India, South Africa, and Brazil are all seeing rapid expansion in sectors including industrial machinery, automotive, and energy. Base oil is the essential component of almost all lubricants. Engine oil is mostly base oil with just 7% to 10% additional ingredients moreover only 10%–12% other additives are included in gearbox fluids; the remaining is base oil. The base oil is used to create a variety of industrial lubricants.

The automobile sector is adopting lubricants more often

Base oils are majorly used in the manufacturing of lubricants. The use of lubricants in the automobile industry is enlarged due to lubricants extended equipment life, reduces corrosion, and reduced machine downtime. A base oil is present in all lubricants. It serves as the lubricant's base before it is combined with additives or a thickening in the case of grease. Improving vehicle supply resulted to increase in the demand for base oil. The automobile industry focuses more on vehicle efficiency, resulting in increased demand for lubricants in the automobile industry. Hence, the increasing adoption of lubricants in the automobile sector is fueling the base oil market.

The Restraining Factor of Base Oil:

Volatility in crude oil prices

Fluctuation in the price of crude oil is expected to hinder the base oil market growth. Many kinds of crude oil are used to produce base oils, the most typical is paraffinic crude oil. On the other hand, Naphthenic crude oils produce base oil with superior solubility and excellent qualities at low temperatures. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), independent Petro-states like Russia, private oil companies like ExxonMobil, and other producers significantly impact crude oil prices. Prices are impacted by supply and demand just as with any other commodity. Crude Oil prices fluctuated due to production expenses as well. While it costs less to extract oil in the Middle East, it costs more to do so in Canada's oil sands. Once the supply of cheap oil is lessened, the price could increase.

Environmental Regulations and Emission Norms

Stringent environmental regulations globally are compelling manufacturers to lower emissions from their production processes and enhance product quality. Governments and environmental agencies are implementing rigorous controls on the sulfur content, volatility, and biodegradability of base oils and lubricants. Adhering to these changing standards raises production costs, particularly for Group I base oils, which are slowly being replaced by more refined Group II and III oils. This regulatory pressure may restrict the growth potential of traditional base oil manufacturers that have not yet modernized their technologies.

Key Trends of Base Oil:

Transition to Group II and Group III Base Oils

There is an increasing transition from Group I to Group II and III base oils, attributed to their enhanced oxidation stability, reduced volatility, and improved performance features. These premium oils are being utilized more frequently in synthetic and semi-synthetic lubricants, especially in high-performance engines and machinery. As Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) seek superior lubricant performance to comply with new emission regulations and fuel efficiency criteria, the global demand for Group II and III base oils is rapidly rising.

Rising Demand for Bio-based and Re-refined Base Oils

The heightened awareness regarding sustainability and environmental effects is driving the demand for bio-based and re-refined base oils. Industries are embracing circular economy principles and are increasingly favoring sustainable alternatives to base oils that lessen reliance on virgin crude oil. The processes for re-refining used oil are becoming more efficient and of higher quality, rendering re-refined base oils a practical and economical choice for both manufacturers and consumers.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Base Oil Market:

The automobile sect...

The IEA is the energy institute expecting the highest oil surplus for 2025. As demand outlooks remain modest, robust production output throughout 2024 is expected to result in some form of oil surplus, which would also impact oil prices. Woodmac was the only energy institute surveyed that did not see a surplus for the year. Production growth amid lower demand expectations The expected surplus in 2025 is largely attributed to non-OPEC production growth from major producers such as the United States and newcomers like Guyana. Overall, worldwide liquid fuels production could see a steep increase in the first half of 2025, if producers like OPEC stick to their output plans. This would come in spite of modest consumption expectations. Again, the IEA is the institute predicting the lowest growth in global oil demand when compared to other industry bodies such as the EIA and OPEC. Forecasting centers diverge in opinion on oil future Not only near-term, also long-term oil demand projections have become increasingly divergent among major energy institutions. OPEC's 2024 outlook expects global oil demand to surpass 113 million barrels per day by 2030, while the IEA's stated policies scenario anticipates demand reaching only 101.7 million barrels per day in the same year. Diesel and gasoil currently account for the largest share of oil product demand at 28.38 percent, though this is expected to decrease slightly by 2050. Jet fuel and kerosene are projected to see the greatest increase in demand shares over the coming decades.

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