Learn about the factors that influence crude oil prices and the importance of these prices in the global economy. Explore the benchmark prices, such as Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate, and understand how supply and demand, geopolitical events, production costs, and market speculation affect the price of crude oil. Discover the impact of crude oil prices on inflation, energy costs, investment opportunities, and as macroeconomic indicators.

The author argues that the economic benefits of low gasoline prices for the U.S. economy have fallen substantially since the reemergence of America as a major oil producer. The old rule-of thumb that a 10% fall in the oil price raises inflation-adjusted U.S. GDP by 0.2% is too large—the impact on economic activity should be closer to zero, and may even be negative if consumption grows slowly. The reasons for this change are straightforward, if underappreciated: (i) the value of oil production accounts for a larger share of the U.S. economy; and (ii) consumers are not spending the windfall like they used to because of higher debt levels, limited access to credit, slow wage rowth, and an older population.

Previous literature suggests that the pass-through of oil price shocks to inflation rates became weaker since the 1970s. I use a time-varying parameter VAR to show that this trend has recently been reversed with headline and core inflation rates responding more sensitive to oil price shocks. Based on a counterfactual analysis, I offer evidence that increasingly important second round effects propagated via inflation expectations play a key role for these dynamics. Finally, I illustrate that oil price shocks in general and this expectation channel more specifically contributed substantially to the recent surge in inflation rates.

Description: This dataset provides a comprehensive overview of monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from March 2003 to June 2024, alongside key economic indicators such as crude oil prices, production levels, and various Consumer Price Index (CPI) components. The data captures important economic trends and is suitable for time series analysis, forecasting, and economic modeling.

The dataset includes the following features:

Inflation Rate: The monthly inflation rate in Nigeria, reflecting the change in consumer prices.

Crude Oil Price: The monthly average price of crude oil, which plays a significant role in Nigeria's economy.

Production and Export: Monthly crude oil production and export figures, representing key components of Nigeria's GDP.

CPI Components: Detailed breakdown of the Consumer Price Index, including food, energy, health, transport, communication, and education.

This dataset is ideal for economists, data scientists, and analysts interested in exploring the dynamics of inflation in a developing economy heavily influenced by oil prices and production. Potential applications include inflation forecasting, economic policy analysis, and studying the impact of global oil prices on domestic inflation.

The crude oil price monthly chart provides valuable insights into the global market, helping investors, policymakers, and consumers understand trends, patterns, and factors influencing oil prices. It allows for the identification of long-term trends, analysis of major events' impacts, and informed trading decisions. Policymakers can also assess the impact on inflation, economic growth, and energy security, making it an important tool for the oil market.

The national crude oil price is a key indicator of the health and stability of a country's economy. Learn about the factors influencing national crude oil prices and the impact it has on inflation, energy costs, investments, stock markets, and government revenue.

The FAO vegetable oil Price Index* reached 178.32 index points in June of 2008 during the financial crisis. During the pandemic, the price index rose to 184.56 points in October of 2021. After the start of the war in Ukraine, the index jumped to over 251 points in March of 2022. As of September 2025, the index had slightly declined to 167.9 points. For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page. For further information about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, please visit our dedicated page on the topic.

An exogenous oil price shock raises inflation and contracts output, similar to a negative productivity shock. In the standard New Keynesian model, however, this does not generate any trade-off between inflation and output gap volatility: under a strict inflation-targeting policy, the output decline is exactly equal to the efficient output contraction in response to the shock. Modeling the oil sector from optimizing first principles rather than assuming an exogenous oil price, we show that the presence of a dominant oil supplier (OPEC) leads to inefficient fluctuations in the oil price markup. The latter reflects a dynamic distortion of the production process, and as a result, stabilizing inflation does not automatically stabilize the distance of output from first-best. Our model is a step away from discussing the effects of exogenous oil price changes and toward analyzing the implications of the underlying shocks that cause the oil price to change in the first place.

The current international crude oil price is a widely watched and closely followed indicator in the global energy markets. It has a significant impact on various sectors of the economy, including transportation, manufacturing, and overall inflation. This article discusses the factors influencing crude oil prices, the role of Brent Crude as the global benchmark, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on prices, and the ongoing market sensitivity to geopolitical tensions and economic conditions.

Energy inflation rates in the European Union have experienced significant fluctuations in recent years, with dramatic increases followed by sharp declines. The impact of geopolitical events, particularly Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the tensions in the Middle East, has led to intense volatility in energy prices across various commodities. As of June 2025, liquid fuels are projected to have a negative inflation rate of nine percent, a stark contrast to the peak of 88 percent seen in June 2022. Broader energy price trends The volatility in energy inflation rates is reflected in broader price indices. The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) for energy in the EU reached nearly 170 index points in October 2022, before declining slightly in 2023 and 2024. This surge was largely driven by increased fuel demand after the COVID-19 pandemic and sanctions on Russian fossil fuel imports. By comparison, the global energy price index stood at approximately 101.5 in 2024, with forecasts suggesting a decrease to below 80 by 2026. This was considerably lower than the HICP in the EU in 2025, which was around 150. Energy consumption patterns Despite price volatility, global primary energy consumption was continuously rising and is expected to increase until 2045. While renewable energy production is projected to grow in the upcoming years, oil and gas will remain the dominant energy sources worldwide in the next few decades. The two fossil fuels had a central role in the EU’s energy sector as well, having accounted for almost 65 percent of the region’s primary energy consumption in 2024.

📂 Dataset Overview - Rows (Entries): 110 - Columns (Features): 6

Columns Description 1. Date - Format: MMM-YYYY (e.g., Jul-2025) - Monthly observations 1. Inflation_YoY (Year-on-Year Inflation %) - Inflation rate in percentage (YoY basis) - Range: 0.3% – 38% - Average: 11.6% - Can be treated as the dependent variable

1. Oil_Price_USD_Barrel
2. Global crude oil price (USD per barrel)
3. Range: 15.18 – 113.77

4. Average: 62.75

5. Exchange_Rate_PKR_USD

• Pakistani Rupee per US Dollar exchange rate
• Range: 104.6 – 304.8
• Average: 185.0

1. Interest_Rate

• State Bank of Pakistan policy rate (%)
• Range: 6.8% – 21.46%
• Average: 11.8%

1. Money_Supply_M2_Billion
2. Broad Money Supply (M2) in billion PKR
3. Range: 12,486 – 41,786
4. Average: 23,124

📊 Statistical Insights

Inflation Trends: High volatility observed between 2019–2023 (peaking at 38%), while in 2025 inflation dropped to ~3–4%.

Oil Price Relation: Fluctuations in crude oil prices appear linked with inflation movements.

Exchange Rate Impact: The depreciation of PKR from ~104 to 300+ significantly impacted inflation and interest rates.

Interest Rate Policy: Mostly ranged between 7–15%, but spiked to ~21% during currency crisis.

Money Supply Growth: Broad money consistently increased, adding long-term inflationary pressure.

📈**Possible Analyses for Kaggle**

1. Trend Analysis

2. Monthly inflation, oil price, exchange rate visualization.

3. Correlation Study

4. Inflation vs Oil Prices

5. Inflation vs Exchange Rate

6. Inflation vs Interest Rate

7. Forecasting Models

8. Time-Series forecasting (ARIMA, Prophet)

9. Regression models using oil prices, exchange rate, and money supply as predictors

10. Economic Insights

• Impact of global oil shocks on Pakistan’s inflation
• Role of monetary policy in inflation control
• Currency depreciation vs domestic inflation

The 2025 annual OPEC basket price stood at ***** U.S. dollars per barrel as of August. This would be lower than the 2024 average, which amounted to ***** U.S. dollars. The abbreviation OPEC stands for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and includes Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and the United Arab Emirates. The aim of the OPEC is to coordinate the oil policies of its member states. It was founded in 1960 in Baghdad, Iraq. The OPEC Reference Basket The OPEC crude oil price is defined by the price of the so-called OPEC (Reference) basket. This basket is an average of prices of the various petroleum blends that are produced by the OPEC members. Some of these oil blends are, for example: Saharan Blend from Algeria, Basra Light from Iraq, Arab Light from Saudi Arabia, BCF 17 from Venezuela, et cetera. By increasing and decreasing its oil production, OPEC tries to keep the price between a given maxima and minima. Benchmark crude oil The OPEC basket is one of the most important benchmarks for crude oil prices worldwide. Other significant benchmarks are UK Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and Dubai Crude (Fateh). Because there are many types and grades of oil, such benchmarks are indispensable for referencing them on the global oil market. The 2025 fall in prices was the result of weakened demand outlooks exacerbated by extensive U.S. trade tariffs.

China’s crude oil import has increased sharply since 2002. Its expenditure on oil import now accounts for around 10% of its total commodity import. Thus, there is potential imported inflation or deflation due to oil price fluctuations and China’s central bank may respond to it. We quantitatively analyze the impact of oil prices on China’s benchmark interest rate and monetary supply by a 6-variable structural vector auto-regression model. We draw that: 1) In response to an increase of oil price, China’s central bank generally upgrades interest rate. If oil price rises by 10 US dollars, the 6-month lending base rate will increase by around 0.13 percentage point in 3 months. 2) The effects of price shocks deepen after the oil pricing reform, and specifically, it can explain 19.8% of the variations in monetary policies in one year after October 2008, compared with the 0.83% before October 2001.

Learn how oil prices can impact the share market, affecting inflation, industry-specific impacts, consumer spending, and geopolitical events. Discover the relationship between oil prices and the share market and its effects on investors.

Crude oil and the stock market are closely interrelated due to various factors. This article explores the impact of oil prices on inflation, consumer spending, energy companies, and overall market sentiment, highlighting the complex relationship between crude oil and the stock market.

Some analysts and economists recently warned that the United States economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the United States economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect.

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 128.8 points in September 2025. This represents an increase of 3.4 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. Food prices worldwide Some food commodities have been hit harder than others in the past years. Global dairy, meat, and vegetable oil prices were on an upward trajectory in the first half of 2025. Regionally, the European Union (EU) and the UK have experienced a particularly high increase in the annual consumer prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, as compared to other selected countries worldwide. Inflation in Europe The inflation rate for food in the EU grew from 0.2 percent in May 2021 to 19.2 percent in March 2023, as compared to the same month in the previous year. In the following months, the food inflation started decreasing again, yet has picked up again in 2025 in line with the global trend. The overall inflation rate in the Euro area reached its peak in December 2022 at 9.2 percent. The rate has since fallen to 2.4 percent in December 2024. As measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), inflation rates in Europe were highest in Turkey, Romania, and Estonia as of April 2025.

The statistic shows the average inflation rate in Canada from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. The inflation rate is calculated using the price increase of a defined product basket. This product basket contains products and services, on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. They include expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities and raw materials (e.g. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes. In 2022, the average inflation rate in Canada was approximately 6.8 percent compared to the previous year. For comparison, inflation in India amounted to 5.56 percent that same year. Inflation in Canada In general, the inflation rate in Canada follows a global trend of decreasing inflation rates since 2011, with the lowest slump expected to occur during 2015, but forecasts show an increase over the following few years. Additionally, Canada's inflation rate is in quite good shape compared to the rest of the world. While oil and gas prices have dropped in Canada much like they have around the world, food and housing prices in Canada have been increasing. This has helped to offset some of the impact of dropping oil and gas prices and the effect this has had on Canada´s inflation rate. The annual consumer price index of food and non-alcoholic beverages in Canada has been steadily increasing over the last decade. The same is true for housing and other price indexes for the country. In general there is some confidence that the inflation rate will not stay this low for long, it is expected to return to a comfortable 2 percent by 2017 if estimates are correct.

Crude oil prices greatly influence energy costs, transportation expenses, and inflation rates. This article discusses the different types of crude oil prices, including Brent Crude, WTI, OPEC Basket, Dubai Crude, and Urals Crude, and highlights the factors that influence their pricing. Understanding and monitoring these prices is crucial for businesses, governments, and individuals as they have significant implications on the global economy, energy markets, and financial stability.

Context

Crude oil is the world's most critical energy source and one of the most actively traded commodities. Its price is a fundamental driver of the global economy, influencing everything from transportation costs and industrial production to inflation rates and geopolitical policy. This dataset tracks the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, a high-quality grade that serves as a primary global benchmark.

Access to reliable, long-term historical data is crucial for economists, traders, and data scientists seeking to model market dynamics, analyze the impact of world events, and forecast economic trends. This dataset provides a comprehensive and daily-updated record of crude oil prices, sourced from the Crude Oil Futures (CL=F) market.

Content

This dataset contains daily price information for Crude Oil Futures (CL=F) in a clean, tabular format. Each row represents a single trading day and includes the following columns:

Date: The date of the trading session (YYYY-MM-DD).

Open: The price at which crude oil first traded for the day in USD per barrel.

High: The highest price reached during the trading day in USD per barrel.

Low: The lowest price reached during the trading day in USD per barrel.

Close: The closing price at the end of the trading day in USD per barrel.

Volume: The total number of futures contracts traded during the day.