Abstract of associated article: Previous studies of the relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices have often found “rockets and feathers” behavior: a scenario where gasoline prices increase more rapidly when crude oil prices rise than they fall when crude oil prices drop. While we find this behavior in times of generally rising crude oil prices, we find the opposite to be true during times of generally falling crude oil prices, a phenomenon we call “balloons and rocks” behavior. This result was obtained by testing for parameter stability in error-correction models which were estimated for periods of significant variability in both crude oil and gasoline prices. The data used to estimate these results is unique in the literature as it is comprised of daily U.S. retail gasoline prices and daily crude oil prices. The sample was taken during the Great Recession, an exceptional period of time that saw both sharp increases and decreases in gasoline and crude oil prices.

Examining the 20-year chart of crude oil provides insights into its historical price movements and trends. This article explores the factors influencing crude oil prices, including supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators. It also discusses the significant shifts in the market, such as the impact of the global recession in 2008-2009 and the surge in shale oil production. However, predicting future crude oil prices remains challenging due to the complex nature of the industr

Some analysts and economists recently warned that the United States economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the United States economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect.

Recessions are associated with both rising oil prices and increases in the federal funds rate. Are recessions caused by the spikes in oil prices or by the sharp tightening of monetary policy? The authors discuss how to disentangle these two effects.

Oil prices have hit a four-year low as the US-China trade war escalates, impacting global markets and leading to significant declines in crude oil and base metal prices.

The price rate of change (ROC) in Western European countries* across various time periods in the late twentieth century fluctuate greatly. In the 13 years between 1960 and 1973, the average price of items increased by just 4.6 percent, compared to an increase of 12.4 percent in the seven years between 1973 and 1980. This spike came as a result of the recession of 1973-1975 and the oil shock of 1979, as conflict in the Middle East led to significant rises in oil prices in Western Europe, whose economies had become increasingly dependent on foreign oil imports to sustain industrial production. Further conflicts in the region led to additional recessions in the west in the early 1980s, and price ROC in Western Europe remained relatively high at 8.8 percent in the first half of the decade. A series of domestic and international policy changes helped to stabilize inflation across Western Europe in the second half of the decade, and the price ROC dropped to just 4.1 percent over these five years.

Proved oil reserves in the United States rose to ***** billion barrels in 2023. This was a decrease compared to the previous year, which saw reserves at 47.73 billion barrels. U.S. proved reserves more than doubled since 2010. New methods, more oil When the global recession hit in 2008, oil prices skyrocketed and the U.S. sought to produce more fuel domestically. Investors took advantage of reduced interest in the wake of the financial crisis to develop new methods to reach previously inaccessible shale gas and oil resources from deep underground. With these permeable rock formations now considered a feasible hydrocarbon source, U.S. proven oil reserves drastically increased. As extraction methods such as hydraulic fracturing took off, U.S. oil production surged. Large formations of shale and tight sandstone made Texas and New Mexico the leading producers of crude oil. Already the biggest consumer of oil worldwide, the United States now produces more oil than any other country, exceeding its own high domestic demand.

Alberta’s manufacturing sector is currently in recession as a result of the dramatic drop in crude oil prices. Lower oil prices have translated into much lower selling prices of refinery products and are causing oil and gas companies to drastically lower their capital spending which translates into reduced demand for machinery and equipment produced by Alberta’s manufacturing and fabricated metals sectors.

We construct new measures of drilling productivity and find that productivity increased sixfold from the mid-2000s to early 2017. Gains in below-ground efficiency—the number of barrels produced per foot of drilled wells—have largely driven this increase in overall productivity. The large oil price declines during the Great Recession and from 2014 to 2016 also played a role. However, further large increases in productivity are unlikely absent additional improvements in technology or a subsequent large downturn in oil prices.

Investment rates in Western Europe* in the 1960s were considerably higher than in the decades that followed. Between 1960 and 1973, during a period referred to as the "Golden Age of Capitalism" in Western Europe, overall investment grew by 5.6 percent. This period of prosperity came to an end, however, with the Recession of 1973-1975, as the Arab-Israeli War of 1973 saw oil prices soar for the U.S. and its allies; investment rates grew by just 0.3 percent over the remainder of the decade. Sporadic recessions resulting from further conflicts in the Middle East saw additional economic recessions in the early-1980s, however, the second half of the 1980s saw a significant growth in investment once more, surpassing the rates seen between 1960 and 1973

"Before discussing basic research needs in UCG , we need to address a still more fundamental question. Does the nation need a synfuel industry? The technical community in the energy field seems to agree almost universally that the nation does need such an industry. The prevailing opinion is that the United States is currently living in a ""fool's paradise."" Oil prices have dropped recently by as much a5 25% which is small compared to the 12 to 15 fold increase in cost since 1973 . A world wide recession has produced a small surplus in the oil export market, but that recession resulted in part from the rapid rise in the cost of energy. Economic recovery will quickly dry up the oil surplus. In the meantime, three separate , simultaneous wars in the Middle- East underline the precarious political balance in that area which produces about 50% of the exported oil. In essence, current conditions have given us only little extra time to complete the mammoth undertaking of developing available syn fuels industry. A second question: Even if synfuels are needed, does the nation need an UCG industry? UCG probably offers economic and some environmental advantages. UCG may be the only viable method for recovering coal energy from thick deep lying coal seams. But, for the near future, one advantage probably overrides all others. In times of national emergency, UCG can be developed more rapidly than any other synfuel industry. This fact may be important should the "" fool's paradise"" end too swiftly."

Hot Melt Amorphous Polyalphaolefin (APAO) Market size was valued at USD 329 Million in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 484.9 Million by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 6% during the forecast period 2024-2031.

Global Hot Melt Amorphous Polyalphaolefin (APAO) Market Drivers

The market drivers for the Hot Melt Amorphous Polyalphaolefin (APAO) Market can be influenced by various factors. These may include:

Increasing Demand from Packaging Sector: The global packaging industry is experiencing significant growth, driven by e-commerce, consumer trends toward convenience, and sustainability. Hot melt amorphous polyalphaolefin (APAO) is increasingly preferred for its excellent adhesive properties, flexibility, and resistance to temperature variations, making it ideal for a variety of packaging applications. The trend toward lightweight packaging and sustainable materials also boosts APAO's demand, as it supports reduced material usage without compromising performance. Furthermore, advancements in packaging technology and the need for efficient production processes are leading manufacturers to adopt APAO adhesives to enhance product reliability and consumer appeal.0 Growth in Construction and Building Sector: The construction and building sector is witnessing a robust expansion, driven by urbanization, infrastructure development, and improved construction methodologies. APAO provides superior bonding solutions in applications such as insulation, roofing, and flooring, contributing to enhanced durability and energy efficiency. Its compatibility with various substrates allows for versatility in construction applications, while its low odor and toxicity profile align with health and safety regulations. Additionally, the push for sustainable construction practices promotes the adoption of low-VOC and environmentally friendly materials, further driving the demand for APAO adhesives in this sector.

Global Hot Melt Amorphous Polyalphaolefin (APAO) Market Restraints

Several factors can act as restraints or challenges for the Hot Melt Amorphous Polyalphaolefin (APAO) Market. These may include:

Regulatory Compliance Challenges: The Hot Melt Amorphous Polyalphaolefin (APAO) market faces significant regulatory compliance challenges, as manufacturers must adhere to stringent environmental and safety regulations set by various governmental bodies. These regulations can vary significantly between regions, leading to complexities in manufacturing processes and delay in product approvals. Regulatory changes can also necessitate costly modifications to production lines, impacting the profitability and competitiveness of businesses in the APAO market. Additionally, stringent compliance can create barriers for smaller companies that may lack the resources to meet these standards, ultimately limiting innovation and new product development within the sector. Economic Volatility: Economic volatility is a substantial restraint affecting the Hot Melt Amorphous Polyalphaolefin (APAO) market, as fluctuations in raw material prices, labour costs, and manufacturing expenses can lead to unpredictable profit margins. Factors such as trade disputes, fluctuating oil prices, and economic recessions can impact the availability and cost of raw materials, which are critical for APAO production. This uncertainty forces manufacturers to either absorb cost increases or pass them on to customers, potentially reducing demand. Additionally, during economic downturns, budget constraints for end-use industries may lead to reduced consumption of APAO products, thus affecting market growth.

Context

Data is extracted from Bloomberg and I used it mainly for the kernel: "Is a recession coming? US Yield Curves can tell us". Yield Curves are presumed to be very good predictors of economic recessions. This analysis assesses how accurate they can actually forecast this event and when they say the next economic recession will take place.

Data Yield Curve:

• Date - daily information from 1977 to 2019
• 1yr - Yield Curve value for 1 year maturity
• 30YR - Yield Curve value for 30 years maturity
• SPREAD - is the difference between the 30yr and 1yr maturities (it is negative when the yield curve inverted)
• SP500 - stock market index that tracks the stocks of 500 large-cap U.S. companies
• GOLD - price of gold
• OIL - price of oil
• CHFUSD - currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and swiss franc
• JPYUSD - currency exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen

Yield-curve-inverted

• Maturities - the type of maturity (from 1 month to 30 years)
• 23.08.2019 - value on this date
• 23.08.2019 - value on this date (showing the invertion)

Stagflation (stagnation and inflation in one word) depicts a time period when an economy is not only suffering from a recession (declining GDP), but high unemployment and inflation rates as well. Usually unemployment and inflation are inversely related, which makes stagflation a rare occurrence. It first happened in the 1970s, when OPEC put an oil embargo on the United States, resulting in oil prices skyrocketing to three times the standard value at that time. As of September 2023, the price of oil fell by 20 percent in comparison to last year after having increased by 76 perent as a result of Russian invasion of Ukraine. The has been signs of stagflation in some countries through 2022 and 2023, but falling inflation rates indicate that the worst has been avoided.

In 2023, U.S. wind power capacity additions reached approximately seven gigawatts, a decrease from the previous year, which registered nine gigawatts. The share of renewable energy sources in the U.S. has seen an increase in the last years. In 2023, renewables accounted for almost 3 percent of the country's electricity generation. Energy after recession When crude oil prices increased during the financial crisis, investors began to consider how to make other sources more cost-effective. Post-Recession investments included clean energy, but also largely focused on developing new methods to extract more fossil fuels such as natural gas. In general, fossil fuel subsidies worldwide have increased for oil and natural gas from 2010 to 2012 and from 2016 to 2018. International investments in clean energy U.S. investment in clean energy drastically increased from 2004 to around the time of the financial crisis, and then grew at a slower and more variable rate. In 2022, renewable energy investments registered record values. In 2019, the United States ranked second worldwide in terms of new investment in renewable energy. In that year, China invested much more into renewables than the United States. Other countries, such as Japan, India, and Brazil also had notable clean energy investments.

The 1973-1975 recession marked the end of a remarkably prosperous period for developed economies. Apart from the United States, who experienced a brief recession in 1969-70, the other nations had enjoyed a period of uninterrupted growth in the 25 years leading up to this event. Japan in particular had the fastest growth of any major economy. This ended, however, following the 1973 oil crisis, which saw the member states of the OAPEC (Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) place an embargo on the nations who supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War, particularly the U.S., who supplied arms to Israel. As a result, oil prices quadrupled in some periods; the U.S. and most of its major economic partners then went into recession due to their dependency on oil imports. Additional factors exacerbated the effects of the recession in each country, such as the miners' strike in the United Kingdom, or Nixon's unstable economic policies in the early 1970s. It was not until 1976 when the major OECD economies would come out of their recession, although real GDP growth rates would not return to the consistent highs experienced in the 1950s and 1960s. Additionally, while GDP growth resumed within a few years, inflation rates and unemployment rates generally remained higher going into the 1980s.

The oil production in Angola was measured at 1.32 million barrels per day in January 2022, improving from 1.29 million barrels in the previous month. During the period observed, the output reached the highest in the first quarter of 2020. After that, it started an overall downward trend. In 2021, the country produced on average 1.2 million barrels of oil daily, the lowest level in the last fifteen years. Currently, Angola’s challenge lies in reversing this decline in production, as the activity has an enormous influence on the country’s economy.

Angolan economic growth relies on the oil industry

Angola’s GDP is forecast to increase by three percent in 2022, showing signs of recovery after years of recession. Higher global oil prices, combined with the relaxation of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic restrictions, are likely to drive the Angolan economic growth. Being the second largest oil producer in Africa, Angola relies strongly on this resource. Around one-third of the country’s GDP is rooted in the oil industry. Moreover, crude oil, natural gas, and refined oil account for almost all national exports.

Oil sector lacks investment

Despite vast oil reserves, Angola’s oil sector struggles with a lack of investment. For instance, capital expenditure, often used for new projects and investments, declined to three billion U.S. dollars in 2021, against 15 billion U.S. dollars in 2014. To face such issues and revitalize the sector, the Angolan government released a strategic plan for the exploration of hydrocarbons between 2020 and 2025 and approved new tax incentives to boost the oil industry. Furthermore, investment to increase the national oil refining capacity is also planned, with new refineries expected to start operations by 2025.

The Russia-Ukraine war impacted economic growth in North Africa. According to projections, the North African countries were affected in different ways. Considering the long-conflict scenario, with the war continuing after *********, Algeria's GDP would grow by **** percent in 2022 compared to the previous year. In contrast, the baseline scenario saw a projected growth of *** percent, which would have occurred in the absence of the war. In this scenario, Algeria was the North African country benefitting the most from the war, mainly due to increasing oil prices. Libya's GDP growth rate was also projected to increase due to the Russia-Ukraine war. In contrast, the economies of Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia were negatively impacted by the war.

The United States’ investment in clean energy reached its highest point in 2022 at *** billion U.S. dollars. This represents a substantial increase since 2004, when investment totaled roughly ** billion U.S. Changes in investment level While clean energy investment has risen drastically over the past 20 years, its growth has not always been consistent. Investment dropped after 2008 in the wake of the financial crisis, before climbing to a new peak in 2011, then decreasing again for a few years. Significant fluctuations in the energy market as a whole played a part in wavering investments during the turbulent years following the global recession. Unstable fossil fuel prices In addition to environmental concerns, the volatility of oil markets in recent years have contributed to rising interest and investment in renewables. In response to swelling international oil prices during the 2008 financial crisis, investors sought to develop both renewables as well as new technologies to domestically extract fossil fuels, such as hydraulic fracturing. A surplus of shale oil and natural gas followed and led to the further destabilization of the U.S. energy market, known as the 2010s oil glut.

For most of the past two decades, China had the highest GDP growth of any of the BRICS countries, although it was overtaken by India in the mid-2010s, and India is predicted to have the highest growth in the 2020s. All five countries saw their GDP growth fall during the global financial crisis in 2008, and again during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020; China was the only economy that continued to grow during both crises, although India's economy also grew during the Great Recession. In 2014, Brazil experienced its own recession due to a combination of economic and political instability, while Russia also went into recession due to the drop in oil prices and the economic sanctions imposed following its annexation of Crimea.