It has long been suspected, given the salience of gasoline prices, that fluctuations in gasoline prices shift households' 1-year inflation expectations. Assessing this view empirically requires the use of dynamic structural models to quantify the cumulative effect of gasoline price shocks on household inflation expectations at each point in time. We find that, on average, gasoline price shocks account for 42% of the variation in these expectations. The cumulative increase in household inflation expectations from early 2009 to early 2013, in particular, is almost entirely explained by unexpectedly rising gasoline prices. However, there is no support for the view that the improved fit of the Phillips curve augmented by household inflation expectations during 2009 2013 is mainly explained by rising gasoline prices.

Graph and download economic data for Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Fuel Oil and Other Fuels in U.S. City Average (CUUR0000SEHE) from Mar 1935 to May 2025 about fuels, oil, urban, consumer, CPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

The author argues that the economic benefits of low gasoline prices for the U.S. economy have fallen substantially since the reemergence of America as a major oil producer. The old rule-of thumb that a 10% fall in the oil price raises inflation-adjusted U.S. GDP by 0.2% is too large—the impact on economic activity should be closer to zero, and may even be negative if consumption grows slowly. The reasons for this change are straightforward, if underappreciated: (i) the value of oil production accounts for a larger share of the U.S. economy; and (ii) consumers are not spending the windfall like they used to because of higher debt levels, limited access to credit, slow wage rowth, and an older population.

The monthly crude oil price index worldwide reached 150.37 index points in May 2025. Prices decreased compared to the previous month as economic activity was expected to fall following U.S. tariff announcements.

Graph and download economic data for Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Fats and Oils in U.S. City Average (CUUR0000SEFS) from Jan 1967 to May 2025 about oil, urban, consumer, CPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Energy Prices: Crude Oil: Spot Price: West Texas Intermediate Cushing data was reported at 0.003 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.003 % for 05 May 2025. Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Energy Prices: Crude Oil: Spot Price: West Texas Intermediate Cushing data is updated weekly, averaging 0.026 % from Apr 2018 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 369 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.609 % in 03 Jun 2024 and a record low of 0.000 % in 19 Feb 2024. Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Energy Prices: Crude Oil: Spot Price: West Texas Intermediate Cushing data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Core.

Aastveit, Knut Are, Bjørnland, Hilde C., and Cross, Jamie L., (2023) “Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices.” Review of Economics and Statistics 105:3, 733–743.

Description: This dataset provides a comprehensive overview of monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from March 2003 to June 2024, alongside key economic indicators such as crude oil prices, production levels, and various Consumer Price Index (CPI) components. The data captures important economic trends and is suitable for time series analysis, forecasting, and economic modeling.

The dataset includes the following features:

Inflation Rate: The monthly inflation rate in Nigeria, reflecting the change in consumer prices.

Crude Oil Price: The monthly average price of crude oil, which plays a significant role in Nigeria's economy.

Production and Export: Monthly crude oil production and export figures, representing key components of Nigeria's GDP.

CPI Components: Detailed breakdown of the Consumer Price Index, including food, energy, health, transport, communication, and education.

This dataset is ideal for economists, data scientists, and analysts interested in exploring the dynamics of inflation in a developing economy heavily influenced by oil prices and production. Potential applications include inflation forecasting, economic policy analysis, and studying the impact of global oil prices on domestic inflation.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Mining Services: Drilling Oil and Gas Wells Services (WPU601103) from Dec 1985 to May 2025 about wells, drilling, oil, mining, gas, services, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Purpose and brief description The consumer price index is an economic indicator whose main task is to objectively reflect the price evolution over time for a basket of goods and services purchased by households and considered representative of their consumer habits. The index does not necessarily measure the price level of this basket for a specific period of time, but rather the fluctuation between two periods, the first one acting as basis for comparison. Moreover, this difference in the price level is not measured in absolute, but in relative terms. The consumer price index can be determined as a hundred times the ratio between the observed prices of a range of goods and services at a given time and the prices of the same goods and services, observed under the same circumstances during the reference period, chosen as basis for comparison. Price observations always take place in the same regions. Since 2014, the consumer price index has been a chain index in which the weighting reference period is regularly shifted and prices and quantities are no longer compared between the current period and a fixed reference period, but the current period is compared with an intermediate period. By multiplying these short-term indices, and so creating a chain, we get a long-term series with a fixed reference period. Population Belgian private households Data collection method and possible sampling Survey technique applied using a computer, based on the use of electronic questionnaires and laptops. Frequency Monthly. Timing of publication The results are available on the penultimate working day of the reference period. Definitions Weight (CPI): The weight represents the importance of the goods and services included in the CPI in the total expenditure patterns of the households. Weights are determined based on the household budget survey. Consumer price index (CPI): The consumer price index is an economic indicator whose main task is to objectively reflect the price evolution over time for a basket of goods and services purchased by households and considered representative of their consumer habits. Health index: The health index is derived from the consumer price index and has been published since January 1994. The current value of this index is determined by removing a number of products from the consumer price index product basket, in particular alcoholic beverages (bought in a shop or consumed in a bar), tobacco products and motor fuels except for LPG. Inflation: Inflation is defined as the ratio between the value of the consumer price index of a given month and the index of the same month the year before. Therefore, inflation measures the rhythm of the evolution of the overall price level. Consumer price index without petroleum products: This index is calculated by removing the following products from the consumer price index: butane, propane, liquid fuels and motor fuels. Consumer price index without energy products: This index is calculated by removing the following products from the consumer price index: electricity, natural gas, butane, propane, liquid fuels, solid fuels and motor fuels. Smoothed index: The smoothed health index, also called smoothed index (the average value of the health indexes of the last 4 months) is used as a basis for the indexation of retirement pensions, social security benefits and some salaries and wages. Public wages and social benefits are indexed as soon as the smoothed index reaches a given value, called the central index. The smoothed index is also called moving average. In order to perform a 2% index jump (laid down in the Law of 23 April 2015 on employment promotion), the smoothed health index has been temporarily blocked at its value of March 2015 (100.66). The smoothed health index was then reduced by 2% from April 2015. When the reduced smoothed health index (also called the reference index) had increased again by 2% or in other words when it had exceeded the value of 100.66, the index was no longer blocked. It occurred in April 2016. Since April 2016 the smoothed health index is calculated in the same manner as the reference index and therefore corresponds to the arithmetical mean of the health indexes of the last 4 months multiplied by a factor of 0.98. The central index is a predetermined threshold value against which the smoothed health index is compared. If the central index is reached or exceeded, there is an indexation of the wages and salaries or benefits. This indexation is proportional to the percentage between the old and the new central index. For the public sector and social benefits, the difference between the central indices always amounts to 2 %. Therefore, a 2 % indexation is applied every time the central index is reached. There are also collective labour agreements according to which the difference between the central indices amounts to 1 % or 1.5 %. The reaching of a central index then leads to an indexation of 1 % or 1,5 %. See also: https://bosa.belgium.

The 2025 annual OPEC oil price stood at ***** U.S. dollars per barrel, as of May. This would be lower than the 2024 average, which amounted to ***** U.S. dollars. The abbreviation OPEC stands for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and includes Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and the United Arab Emirates. The aim of the OPEC is to coordinate the oil policies of its member states. It was founded in 1960 in Baghdad, Iraq. The OPEC Reference Basket The OPEC crude oil price is defined by the price of the so-called OPEC (Reference) basket. This basket is an average of prices of the various petroleum blends that are produced by the OPEC members. Some of these oil blends are, for example: Saharan Blend from Algeria, Basra Light from Iraq, Arab Light from Saudi Arabia, BCF 17 from Venezuela, et cetera. By increasing and decreasing its oil production, OPEC tries to keep the price between a given maxima and minima. Benchmark crude oil The OPEC basket is one of the most important benchmarks for crude oil prices worldwide. Other significant benchmarks are UK Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and Dubai Crude (Fateh). Because there are many types and grades of oil, such benchmarks are indispensable for referencing them on the global oil market. The 2025 fall in prices was the result of weakened demand outlooks exacerbated by extensive U.S. trade tariffs.

This study analyses the effects of oil price and macroeconomic shocks on the Malaysian housing market using a SVAR framework. The specification of the baseline model is based on standard economic theory. The Gregory-Hansen (GH) cointegration tests reveal that there is no cointegration among the variables of interest. Results from performing Toda-Yamamoto (TY) non-Granger causality tests show that oil price, labor force and inflation are the leading factors causing movements in the Malaysian housing prices in the long run. The findings from estimating generalized impulse response functions (IRFs) and variance decompositions (VDCs) indicate that oil price and labor force shocks explain a substantial portion of housing market price fluctuations in Malaysia.

Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Energy Prices: Crude Oil Price: Average International FOB: Indian Basket: USD data was reported at 2.213 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.213 % for 05 May 2025. Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Energy Prices: Crude Oil Price: Average International FOB: Indian Basket: USD data is updated weekly, averaging 0.352 % from Jul 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 254 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12.584 % in 05 Jul 2021 and a record low of 0.000 % in 07 Oct 2024. Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Energy Prices: Crude Oil Price: Average International FOB: Indian Basket: USD data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s India – Table IN.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Headline.

Canada Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Energy: Crude Oil Price: Avg: Synthetic Edmonton data was reported at 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 05 May 2025. Canada Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Energy: Crude Oil Price: Avg: Synthetic Edmonton data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Jan 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 332 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.127 % in 11 Feb 2019 and a record low of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. Canada Inflation Nowcast: Contribution: Energy: Crude Oil Price: Avg: Synthetic Edmonton data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Headline.

The statistic shows the average inflation rate in Canada from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. The inflation rate is calculated using the price increase of a defined product basket. This product basket contains products and services, on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. They include expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities and raw materials (e.g. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes. In 2022, the average inflation rate in Canada was approximately 6.8 percent compared to the previous year. For comparison, inflation in India amounted to 5.56 percent that same year. Inflation in Canada In general, the inflation rate in Canada follows a global trend of decreasing inflation rates since 2011, with the lowest slump expected to occur during 2015, but forecasts show an increase over the following few years. Additionally, Canada's inflation rate is in quite good shape compared to the rest of the world. While oil and gas prices have dropped in Canada much like they have around the world, food and housing prices in Canada have been increasing. This has helped to offset some of the impact of dropping oil and gas prices and the effect this has had on Canada´s inflation rate. The annual consumer price index of food and non-alcoholic beverages in Canada has been steadily increasing over the last decade. The same is true for housing and other price indexes for the country. In general there is some confidence that the inflation rate will not stay this low for long, it is expected to return to a comfortable 2 percent by 2017 if estimates are correct.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Fuels and Related Products and Power: Home Heating Oil and Distillates (WPU057302) from Jan 1975 to May 2025 about heating, fuels, oil, commodities, housing, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Due to the recent hyperinflation crisis in Venezuela, the average inflation rate in Venezuela is estimated to be around 225 percent in 2026. However, this is well below the peak of 63,000 percent observed in 2018.What is hyperinflation?In short, hyperinflation is a very high inflation rate that accelerates quickly. It can be caused by a government printing huge amounts of new money to pay for its expenses. The subsequent rapid increase of prices causes the country’s currency to lose value and shortages in goods to occur. People then typically start hoarding goods, which become even more scarce and expensive, money becomes worthless, financial institutions go bankrupt, and eventually, the country’s economy collapses. The Venezuelan descent into hyperinflationIn Venezuela, the economic catastrophe began with government price controls and plummeting oil prices, which caused state-run oil companies to go bankrupt. The government then starting printing new money to cope, thus prices rose rapidly, unemployment increased, and GDP collapsed, all of which was exacerbated by international sanctions. Today, many Venezuelans are emigrating to find work and supplies elsewhere, and population growth is at a decade-low. Current president Nicolás Maduro does not seem inclined to steer away from his course of price controls and economic mismanagement, so the standard of living in the country is not expected to improve significantly anytime soon.

As of May 2025, the average annual price of Brent crude oil stood at 72 U.S. dollars per barrel. This is some eight U.S. dollars lower than the 2024 average. Brent is the world's leading price benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils. Crude oil is one of the most closely observed commodity prices as it influences costs across all stages of the production process and consequently alters the price of consumer goods as well. What determines crude oil benchmarks? In the past decade, crude oil prices have been especially volatile. Their inherent inelasticity regarding short-term changes in demand and supply means that oil prices are erratic by nature. However, since the 2009 financial crisis, many commercial developments have greatly contributed to price volatility; such as economic growth by BRIC countries like China and India, and the advent of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling in the U.S. The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are examples of geopolitical events dictating prices. Light crude oils - Brent and WTI Brent Crude is considered a classification of sweet light crude oil and acts as a benchmark price for oil around the world. It is considered a sweet light crude oil due to its low sulfur content and a low density and may be easily refined into gasoline. This oil originates in the North Sea and comprises several different oil blends, including Brent Blend and Ekofisk crude. Often, this crude oil is refined in Northwest Europe. Another sweet light oil often referenced alongside UK Brent is West Texas Intermediate (WTI). WTI oil prices amounted to 76.55 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2024.

United States Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Energy Prices: Crude Oil: Spot Price: Brent data was reported at 0.003 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.003 % for 05 May 2025. United States Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Energy Prices: Crude Oil: Spot Price: Brent data is updated weekly, averaging 0.037 % from Apr 2018 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 369 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.975 % in 03 Jun 2024 and a record low of 0.000 % in 16 Nov 2020. United States Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Energy Prices: Crude Oil: Spot Price: Brent data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Core.

Stagflation (stagnation and inflation in one word) depicts a time period when an economy is not only suffering from a recession (declining GDP), but high unemployment and inflation rates as well. Usually unemployment and inflation are inversely related, which makes stagflation a rare occurrence. It first happened in the 1970s, when OPEC put an oil embargo on the United States, resulting in oil prices skyrocketing to three times the standard value at that time. As of September 2023, the price of oil fell by 20 percent in comparison to last year after having increased by 76 perent as a result of Russian invasion of Ukraine. The has been signs of stagflation in some countries through 2022 and 2023, but falling inflation rates indicate that the worst has been avoided.