Public Opinion and Election Polling Market Outlook

The global market size for public opinion and election polling was valued at approximately $8.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around $12.7 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% during the forecast period. This growth is largely driven by advancements in data collection methodologies and the increasing importance of data-driven decision-making in political campaigns and public policy.

One of the primary growth factors for this market is the advancements in technology that have revolutionized data collection and analysis processes. The proliferation of smartphones and internet access has enabled polling organizations to reach a broader demographic more efficiently and accurately. Online polling, for instance, has gained substantial traction due to its cost-effectiveness and ability to gather real-time data. Additionally, the advent of artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms has enhanced the accuracy of predictive models, making election forecasting more reliable.

Another significant driver is the increasing reliance on data-driven decision-making in political campaigns, government strategies, and private sector initiatives. Political parties and candidates are increasingly investing in sophisticated polling methods to gauge public opinion and tailor their campaigns accordingly. This trend is not limited to political entities; businesses and media organizations also leverage polling data to shape their marketing strategies and content, respectively. Moreover, academic institutions utilize public opinion data for social science research, further fueling market growth.

The growing emphasis on transparency and accountability in governance is also contributing to the market's expansion. Governments and public agencies are increasingly conducting public opinion polls to gauge citizen satisfaction and gather feedback on policies and programs. This approach helps in making informed decisions that align with public sentiment, thereby enhancing governance quality. The trend is particularly noticeable in democratic nations where public opinion significantly influences policy-making processes.

From a regional perspective, North America currently holds the largest market share, driven by a highly active political environment and advanced technological infrastructure. Europe follows closely, with significant contributions from countries like the UK, Germany, and France. The Asia Pacific region is expected to witness the highest growth rate during the forecast period due to increasing political activities and advancements in polling technologies. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are also showing promising growth, albeit at a slower pace due to varying degrees of technological adoption and political stability.

Methodology Analysis

The methodology segment of the public opinion and election polling market is diverse, encompassing online polling, telephone polling, face-to-face polling, mail polling, and other methods. Online polling has gained significant traction in recent years due to its cost-effectiveness and ability to reach a wide demographic. With the proliferation of internet access and smartphones, online polls can gather real-time data quickly and efficiently, making them a preferred choice for many polling organizations. Moreover, advancements in data security and privacy have alleviated concerns over the integrity of online polling data.

Telephone polling remains a popular method, especially for reaching older demographics who may not be as comfortable with online platforms. This methodology allows for more in-depth conversations and the ability to clarify questions, thereby potentially yielding more accurate data. However, the increasing prevalence of mobile phones over landlines has necessitated adaptations in sampling strategies. Companies are increasingly using sophisticated algorithms to create representative samples of mobile users, thereby maintaining the robustness of telephone polling.

Face-to-face polling is often considered the gold standard for accuracy, as it allows for the collection of nuanced data through direct interaction. This method is particularly useful in regions with low internet penetration or among demographics that are less likely to participate in online or telephone polls. However, the high costs and logistical challenges associated with face-to-face polling can be prohibitive, limiting its widespread use. Despite these challenges, face-to-face polling remains essential f

The online polling software market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing digital adoption across various sectors. The market, currently estimated at $2.5 billion in 2025, is projected to witness a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15% from 2025 to 2033. This expansion is fueled by the rising demand for efficient and cost-effective data collection methods in businesses, educational institutions, and political campaigns. The ease of use, real-time data analysis capabilities, and diverse polling options offered by these platforms are key drivers. Furthermore, the integration of online polling software with other communication and collaboration tools enhances its appeal and functionality, leading to wider adoption. Different polling types like browser, app, and scan polling cater to diverse needs, with applications ranging from simple opinion polls to complex surveys for market research. The market is segmented by application type (meeting, education, business, and others), reflecting the diverse use cases across industries. Geographic expansion, particularly in developing economies with increasing internet penetration, contributes to market growth. Competitive landscape is also dynamic with a blend of established players and emerging companies offering a wide range of features and pricing models. However, challenges remain. Data security and privacy concerns are paramount, requiring robust security measures to maintain user trust. The increasing sophistication of online polling tools requires continuous investment in research and development to stay ahead of the curve. Market saturation in certain regions and the cost of implementing and maintaining these systems can also pose restraints. Furthermore, the need for effective user training and support is crucial to ensure widespread adoption and maximum value realization. To overcome these limitations, future market players will need to focus on innovative data security solutions, affordable pricing models, and user-friendly interfaces that can cater to diverse technical capabilities. The continuous evolution of functionalities and integration with other platforms will ensure competitiveness in the rapidly evolving digital landscape.

During elections, political polls provide critical data for the support each candidate receives. For that reason, the measurement of questions asking about candidate support has been receiving some research attention. As the online survey is increasingly becoming a widely used tool for public opinion and election polls, evaluation of the measurement error associated with this survey mode is of importance. This study examines whether a candidate name order effect exists in presidential primary election surveys in the US. The findings show that contrary to previous studies the order of names does not have a significant impact on the support candidates received.

By means of a split-ballot survey experiment, we study whether a normative instruction not to use the internet when answering political knowledge questions reduces cheating in web surveys. The knowledge questions refer to basic facts about the European Union and the data come from the Italian National Election Study web panel carried out in Italy before the 2014 European Election. Our analysis shows that a simple normative instruction significantly reduces cheating. We also show that reducing cheating is important to achieve a correct assessment of reliability of knowledge scales, while a decrease of cheating leaves unaltered the knowledge gap between lower and higher educated respondents. These results invite caution when including political knowledge questions in an online survey. Our advice is to include a normative instruction not to search the internet to reduce cheating and obtain more genuine answers. More generally, we conclude by stressing the need to consider the implications of online data collection when building questionnaires for public opinion research.

These data are being released as a preliminary version to facilitate early access to the study for research purposes. This collection has not been fully processed by ICPSR at this time, and data are released in the format provided by the principal investigators. As the study is processed and given enhanced features by ICPSR in the future, users will be able to download the updated versions of the study. Please report any data errors or problems to user support, and we will work with you to resolve any data-related issues. The American National Election Study (ANES): 2016 Pilot Study sought to test new instrumentation under consideration for potential inclusion in the ANES 2016 Time Series Study, as well as future ANES studies. Much of the content is based on proposals from the ANES user community submitted through the Online Commons page, found on the ANES home page. The survey included questions about preferences in the presidential primary, stereotyping, the economy, discrimination, race and racial consciousness, police use of force, and numerous policy issues, such as immigration law, health insurance, and federal spending. It was conducted on the Internet using the YouGov panel, an international market research firm that administers polls that collect information about politics, public affairs, products, brands, as well as other topics of general interest.

raw ANES data and the initial spss code that sets up the data. The stata do file runs all analyses and produces the tables and figures in the paper and appendix.

Global Public Opinion And Election Polling market size is expected to reach $10.23 billion by 2029 at 3.5%, segmented as by mode, online surveys, paper surveys, telephonic surveys, one-to-one interviews

There is a large body of research on utilizing online activity as a survey of political opinion to predict real world election outcomes. There is considerably less work, however, on using this data to understand topic-specific interest and opinion amongst the general population and specific demographic subgroups, as currently measured by relatively expensive surveys. Here we investigate this possibility by studying a full census of all Twitter activity during the 2012 election cycle along with the comprehensive search history of a large panel of Internet users during the same period, highlighting the challenges in interpreting online and social media activity as the results of a survey. As noted in existing work, the online population is a non-representative sample of the offline world (e.g., the U.S. voting population). We extend this work to show how demographic skew and user participation is non-stationary and difficult to predict over time. In addition, the nature of user contributions varies substantially around important events. Furthermore, we note subtle problems in mapping what people are sharing or consuming online to specific sentiment or opinion measures around a particular topic. We provide a framework, built around considering this data as an imperfect continuous panel survey, for addressing these issues so that meaningful insight about public interest and opinion can be reliably extracted from online and social media data.

What are the consequences of including a “don’t know” (DK) response option to attitudinal survey questions? Existing research, based on traditional survey modes, argues that it reduces the effective sample size without improving the quality of responses. We contend that it can have important effects not only on estimates of aggregate public opinion, but also on estimates of opinion differences between subgroups of the population who have different levels of political information. Through a pre-registered online survey experiment conducted in the United States, we find that the DK response option has consequences for opinion estimates in the present day, where most organizations rely on online panels, but mainly for respondents with low levels of political information and on low salience issues. These findings imply that the exclusion of a DK option can matter, with implications for assessments of preference differences and our understanding of their impacts on politics and policy.

This poll, fielded July 20-23, 2000, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked whether they intended to vote in the November 7, 2000, presidential election and for whom they would vote if the election were held that day, given a choice between Vice President Al Gore (Democratic Party), Texas governor George W. Bush (Republican Party), conservative commentator Pat Buchanan (Reform Party), and consumer advocate Ralph Nader (Green Party). Respondents were asked to assess the importance of the following issues in their electoral decision-making and to specify which candidate they most trusted to do a better job addressing them: holding taxes down, protecting the Social Security system, improving education, improving the health care system, handling the economy, handling gun control, handling foreign affairs, encouraging high moral standards and values, handling the death penalty issue, protecting people's privacy on the Internet, handling the federal budget surplus, managing the federal budget, handling crime, protecting the environment, addressing women's issues, and appointing justices to the Supreme Court. Views were sought on whether presidential debates should be held, which candidates should be invited to participate, and whether respondents were satisfied with the presidential candidates. In addition, respondents were asked which candidate understood the problems of the American people, was a strong leader, would bring needed change to Washington, had the knowledge of world affairs it takes to serve effectively as president, could keep the economy strong, would say or do anything to get elected, had new ideas, said what he really thought, was honest and trustworthy, had an appealing personality, and had the right kind of experience to be president. Those queried were asked whether a difference existed between Gore and Bush on the issues about which the respondent cared and their personal qualities. Opinions were elicited on whether the top priority for the federal budget surplus should be cutting federal taxes, reducing the national debt, strengthening Social Security, or increasing spending on domestic programs. Additional questions covered abortion and the impact of Bush's naming a running mate who supported legalized abortion, Bush's handling of the death penalty while governor of Texas, voter intentions regarding the 2000 Congressional elections, whether a smaller government with fewer services is preferred to a larger government with many services, whether the country should continue to move in the direction that Clinton established, and whether it mattered who was elected president. Background information on respondents includes age, gender, political party, political orientation, voter registration and participation history, education, religion, labor union membership, Hispanic origin, household income, and neighborhood characteristics.

This dataset (in .csv format), accompanying codebook and replication code serve as supplement to a study titled: “Does the mode of administration impact on quality of data? Comparing a traditional survey versus an online survey via a Voting Advice Application” submitted for publication to the journal: “Survey Research Methods”). The study involved comparisons of responses to two near-identical questionnaires administered via a traditional survey and through a Voting Advice Application (VAA) both designed for and administered during the pre-electoral period of the Cypriot Presidential Elections of 2013. The offline dataset consisted of questionnaires collected from 818 individuals whose participation was elicited through door-to-door stratified random sampling with replacement of individuals who could not be contacted. The strata were designed to take into account the regional population density, gender, age and whether the area was urban or rural. Offline participants completed a pen-and-paper questionnaire version of the VAA in a self-completing capacity, although the person administering the questionnaire remained present throughout. The online dataset involved responses from 10,241 VAA users who completed the Choose4Cyprus VAA. Voting Advice Applications are online platforms that provide voting recommendations to users based on their closeness to political parties after they declare their agreement or disagreement on a number of policy statements. VAA users freely visited the VAA website and completed the relevant questionnaire in a self-completing capacity. The two modes of administration (online and offline) involved respondents completing a series of supplementary questions (demographics, ideological affinity & political orientation [e.g. vote in the previous election]) prior to the main questionnaire consisting of 35 and 30 policy-related Likert-type items for the offline and online mode respectively. The dataset includes all 30 policy items that were common between the two modes, although only the first 19 (q1:q19) appeared in the same order and in the same position in the two questionnaires; as such, all analyses reported in the article were conducted using these 19 items only. The phrasing of the questions was identical for the two modes and is described per variable in the attached codebook.

The Youth Participatory Politics Survey Project (YPPSP) includes questions that examined the quantity, quality, and equality of youth new media practices; as well as political and civic attitudes, behavior, and engagement (collectively referred to as "participatory politics"). The study was conducted in three waves between 2011 and 2015, and this dataset includes respondents who completed both second and third waves (2013 and 2015, respectively). A total of 1,033 respondents, who were between the ages of 15 and 27 in 2013, completed both waves. The wave 2 survey collected data from 2,343 respondents ages 15-27. The survey was administered from July 2013 to November 2013 and June 2015 to November 2015 by the survey vendor Growth from Knowledge (GfK) Group. The 2013 survey was administered online and by telephone, and the 2015 survey was administered online. The survey included oversamples of African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latino respondents. The survey asked questions about political and civic attitudes, media practices, community involvement, political engagement, news sources, and social influences. Demographic variables include age, race, education, income, and gender.

This poll, fielded January 3-4, 1999, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked to give their opinions of President Bill Clinton and his handling of the presidency, foreign policy, and the economy, as well as their opinions of the United States Congress, Vice President Al Gore, First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, Special Prosecutor Kenneth Starr, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, the Republican and Democratic parties, the federal government, and the news media. Views were also solicited on the condition of the national economy, public trust in government, whether political leaders shared the moral values of and cared about the needs and problems of the American people, priorities for national governmental action in the near future, and predictions regarding such action. Special emphasis was given to the presidential impeachment proceedings on Capitol Hill. Respondents were asked how much attention they paid to and how they viewed the House of Representatives impeachment vote, and what their desires and expectations were for the prospective Senate impeachment trial (including possible Senate censure or Clinton resignation) and for the ultimate resolution of the impeachment proceedings. Opinions were also solicited on the news media's handling of the impeachment process. Background information on respondents includes age, race, sex, education, religion, marital status, voting registration status, political party preferences and political orientation, computer, Internet, and e-mail accessibility and use, age of children in the household, and family income.

The "https://www.pewresearch.org/american-trends-panel-datasets/" Target="_blank">American Trends Panel (ATP), created by "https://www.pewresearch.org/our-methods/u-s-surveys/the-american-trends-panel/" Target="_blank">Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults. Panelists participate via self-administered web surveys. Panelists who do not have internet access at home are provided with a tablet and wireless internet connection. Interviews are conducted in both English and Spanish. The panel is being managed by "https://www.ipsos.com/en" Target="_blank">Ipsos.

Data in this report are drawn from the panel wave conducted March 1 to March 7, 2021. A total of 12,055 panelists responded out of 13,545 who were sampled, for a response rate of 89 percent. The cumulative response rate accounting for nonresponse to the recruitment surveys and attrition is four percent. The break-off rate among panelists who logged on to the survey and completed at least one item is one percent. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 12,055 respondents is plus or minus one-and-a-half percentage points.

The ATP Wave 84 asked questions about religion in politics and tolerance.

The dataset contains Ontario public opinion polling data from March 11, 2018 to June 6, 2018 examining support for political parties within Ontario. Polling data was collected by the following firms (use the methods listed):Abacus (Online Survey) Campaign Research: (Online Poll) Ekos (HD- Interactive Voice Response survey) Forum Research (Interactive Voice Response survey) IPSOS (Online Panel) Leger (Online Survey) Mainstreet Research (Interactive Voice Response survey) Pollara Strategic Insights (Combined – Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing / Online Survey)

Full edition for scientific use. The Digitize! Online Panel Survey is an offline-recruited Austrian opinion survey which measures attitudes and behavior towards several social phenomena and issues. Topics include, amongst others, attitudes towards work, immigration, family, health, environment, and media behavior as well as opinions on political events or parties in Austria. The survey also consists of general issue items and socio-demographic variables.

The MOBILISE project examines why some people respond to discontent by protesting, others by migrating while yet others stay immobile. It focuses on four countries that have seen outmigration and protest in recent year (Ukraine, Poland, Morocco and Argentina) and migrants from these countries who live in Germany, the United Kingdom and Spain. The main body of MOBILISE survey data are nationally representative face-to-face surveys in Ukraine, Poland, Morocco and Argentina. As these surveys are unable to capture (current) migrants from these countries – a group that is crucial to answering the MOBILISE research question – MOBILISE employs a migrant survey targeted at three destination countries; Germany, the UK and Spain. MOBILISE migrant surveys were closely oriented to the national surveys in order to achieve the longitudinal nature of the data. All of the surveys thoroughly ask for political views and beliefs as well as socio economic background, the reasons and motivations to (or not) migrate and the reason to (or not) protest. The migrant survey was run online. We also ran two supplementary online national surveys targeting the general population in Ukraine and Argentina. All MOBILISE national and migrant surveys are set-up as a two wave panel. The first wave of data collection for the migrant and national survey started in September 2019 and finished in March 2020. The second wave started between December 2020 and December 2021. This data deposit contains wave one and two of the migrant and national online surveys (the nationally representative surveys are deposited separately).

The MOBILISE project asks: When there is discontent, why do some people protest while others cross borders? Connecting theoretical expectations from the migration and protest literatures, we examine: a) whether similar factors drive the choice to migrate and/or protest at the individual level; b) how context affects this mobilisation; c) whether these choices are independent of each other or mutually reinforcing/ undermining. MOBILISE employs a multi-method (nationally representative face-to-face panel surveys, online migrant surveys, protest participant surveys, focus groups, life-history interviews, social media analysis) and a multi-sited research design. It covers Ukraine, Poland, Morocco and Brazil, which have recently witnessed large-scale emigration and protests. It follows migrants from these countries to Germany, the UK and Spain. The project offers four key innovations: 1)it combines protest and migration; 2)it captures all the relevant groups for a comparative study (protesters, migrants, migrant protesters and people who have not engaged in migration or protest); 3)it tracks individuals over time by employing a panel survey; 4)it includes the use of social media data providing real time information on the role of networks and political remittances. These features allow the project to make a major contribution to theory development in both migration and protest studies and offer key insights to policy makers on factors influencing political and economic stability.

Over the five years through 2024-25, revenue is set to climb at a compound annual rate of 2% to £6.4 billion. This growth stems from recovering business confidence, which was previously shaken by Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic and soaring inflation, deterring investments. Mounting demand for online and digital research services and intense political activity has also fuelled expansion. Facing stiff competition, market research and public opinion polling companies have innovated to gain a competitive edge, embracing acquisitions in order to gain access to new technology and niche markets, as well as heavily investing in technology to improve data collection and analysis. The shift towards digital advertising has driven the adoption of advanced data gathering and research methods to better understand online consumer behaviour, though there’s been a growing trend towards in-house research as an alternative. Revenue saw a 16.3% downturn in 2020-21, a reflection of the financial strain created by COVID-19 curtailing spending on research activities. The severity of this decline, however, was cushioned by increased market research investment from the public sector and private companies looking to navigate the aftermath of the pandemic. Revenue is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2024-25, propelled by easing inflationary pressures and the collective effort of businesses to stabilise the economy and financial markets. Public-sector demand is also escalating, driven by the General Election and the continued political discourse necessitating insights into public opinion. Looking ahead, revenue is projected to rise at a compound annual rate of 3.1% over the five years through 2029-30, reaching £7.5 billion. Growth will be fuelled by a rebound in business confidence and an uptick in spending. Demand for companies specialising in web-based market research and social media marketing is expected to surge, supported by strong advertising activity and a mounting need for media research. As e-commerce continues on a steady growth path, there will likely be an increased emphasis on investing in novel research technologies and specialised data analytics capabilities.

The E-DEM dataset is a micro-level online panel survey of the Spanish voting age population comprised of four waves carried out over a six-month period between late October 2018 and May 2019 (the detailed timing of each wave will be presented in Table 1). The survey waves coincide with key moments in Spanish political life (including local, regional, national, and European elections, as well as the conviction of Catalan secessionist leaders). It also covers the six-month period of the surge of Spain’s new radical right party, Vox, spanning from shortly before its first major electoral success in Spain’s most populate region, Andalusia, to its consolidation in the May 2019 European elections. In addition, the project comprises a series of survey experiments, embedded in the different waves, regarding measures on confidence in institutions, exposure to media and social networks, as well as on political behavior and polarization attitudes based on passive data, captured with software that the interviewees installed on their mobile devices. Three datasets are provided: the four-waves dataset, the experimental dataset, and the integrated dataset, which includes the former two. Each dataset is provided in three formats: tab-separated delimited text, tab-separated rawtext, and Stata 15.0 (.dta).

The dataset contains waves 1 to 12 of the “POLAT Project. Spanish Political Attitudes Panel”, with information retrieved through online surveys carried out between 2010 and 2020. The dataset includes a total of 657 variables (not all of them are present in each of the twelve waves of the study), including: most important problem facing country, evaluations of the economy, political information consumption, emotions, attitudes towards issues, political trust, political knowledge, political participation, leaders’ evaluation, populist attitudes, modern sexism, ideology, partisanship, and sociodemographic characteristics.