DATASET: Alpha version 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035 estimates of numbers of live births per grid square, with national totals adjusted to match UN national estimates on numbers of live births (http://esa.un.org/wpp/). REGION: Asia SPATIAL RESOLUTION: 0.000833333 decimal degrees (approx 100m at the equator) PROJECTION: Geographic, WGS84 UNITS: Estimated births per grid square MAPPING APPROACH: Tatem AJ, Campbell J, Guerra-Arias M, de Bernis L, Moran A, Matthews Z, 2014, Mapping for maternal and newborn health: the distributions of women of childbearing age, pregnancies and births, International Journal of Health Geographics, 13:2 FORMAT: Geotiff (zipped using 7-zip (open access tool): www.7-zip.org) FILENAMES: Example - AZE2010adjustedBirths.tif = Azerbaijan (AZE) births count map for 2010 adjusted to match UN national estimates on numbers of live births. DATE OF PRODUCTION: May 2014

DATASET: Alpha version 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035 estimates of numbers of pregnancies per grid square, with national totals adjusted to match national estimates on numbers of pregnancies made by the Guttmacher Institute (http://www.guttmacher.org/). REGION: Asia SPATIAL RESOLUTION: 0.000833333 decimal degrees (approx 100m at the equator) PROJECTION: Geographic, WGS84 UNITS: Estimated pregnancies per grid square MAPPING APPROACH: Tatem AJ, Campbell J, Guerra-Arias M, de Bernis L, Moran A, Matthews Z, 2014, Mapping for maternal and newborn health: the distributions of women of childbearing age, pregnancies and births, International Journal of Health Geographics, 13:2 FORMAT: Geotiff (zipped using 7-zip (open access tool): www.7-zip.org) FILENAMES: Example - AFG2010pregnancies.tif = Afghanistan (AFG) pregnancies count map for 2010 adjusted to match UN national estimates on numbers of pregnancies. DATE OF PRODUCTION: May 2014

The aims of this project were to:

• understand the demographic changes that United Kingdom local ethnic populations are presently experiencing and are likely to experience in the remainder of the 21st century
• understand the impact that international migration is having on the size and ethnic composition of UK local populations
• understand the role that differences in fertility between the UK's ethnic groups plays in shaping current and future trends
• understand the role that mortality differences between ethnic groups is playing in the changing demography of the UK's local populations
• understand how the ethnic diversity of UK local populations is changing and likely to change in the future
• deliver the projections as a resource for use by social science in the UK
• build capacity in the analysis of demographic change through the development of young and middle career researchers
• tap into the best practice internationally to benefit the UK social science community.

To achieve the project aims, the objectives were to:

• build projections of the populations of ethnic groups for UK local areas
• use the population projection model to explore alternative futures.

The project built a model for projecting the ethnic group populations of UK Local Authorities (LAs), which handles 352 LAs, 16 ethnic groups, 102 ages and 2 sexes. To drive the projections, estimates of the components of ethnic change were prepared for 2001-7. A new method produced UK estimates of ethnic life expectancy, ranging from 82 years for Chinese women to 77 for Pakistani. A future 2% decline in mortality per annum was assumed. Ethnic fertility estimates showed that only Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis had total fertility rates above replacement. Small declines in fertility were forecast. New estimates of the local distribution of immigration were made, using administrative data, because of concerns about official figures. The ethnicity of both immigrants and emigrants for local areas was projected. Estimates were constructed of the ethnic group probabilities for internal in- and out-migration for LAs using 2001 Census data. These probabilities were assumed constant in the future, as migration was stable between 2001 and 2008. Five projections were produced. Two benchmark projections, using constant inputs from 2001-2, forecast the UK population would be 62 and 56 million in 2051.The official projection reports 77 million. The Trend projection, aligned to ONS assumptions projected 78 million for 2051. Using revised assumptions 80 million was projected in a fourth projection. When the model for emigration was changed the projected population was only 71 million. All projections showed ageing and dispersion of ethnic minorities. By 2051 the UK will have a larger, more diverse and integrated population.

For further information about the project, see documentation and the What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios ESRC award page.

In 1800, the population of the area of modern-day Bangladesh was estimated to be just over 19 million, a figure which would rise steadily throughout the 19th century, reaching over 26 million by 1900. At the time, Bangladesh was the eastern part of the Bengal region in the British Raj, and had the most-concentrated Muslim population in the subcontinent's east. At the turn of the 20th century, the British colonial administration believed that east Bengal was economically lagging behind the west, and Bengal was partitioned in 1905 as a means of improving the region's development. East Bengal then became the only Muslim-majority state in the eastern Raj, which led to socioeconomic tensions between the Hindu upper classes and the general population. Bengal Famine During the Second World War, over 2.5 million men from across the British Raj enlisted in the British Army and their involvement was fundamental to the war effort. The war, however, had devastating consequences for the Bengal region, as the famine of 1943-1944 resulted in the deaths of up to three million people (with over two thirds thought to have been in the east) due to starvation and malnutrition-related disease. As the population boomed in the 1930s, East Bengal's mismanaged and underdeveloped agricultural sector could not sustain this growth; by 1942, food shortages spread across the region, millions began migrating in search of food and work, and colonial mismanagement exacerbated this further. On the brink of famine in early-1943, authorities in India called for aid and permission to redirect their own resources from the war effort to combat the famine, however these were mostly rejected by authorities in London. While the exact extent of each of these factors on causing the famine remains a topic of debate, the general consensus is that the British War Cabinet's refusal to send food or aid was the most decisive. Food shortages did not dissipate until late 1943, however famine deaths persisted for another year. Partition to independence Following the war, the movement for Indian independence reached its final stages as the process of British decolonization began. Unrest between the Raj's Muslim and Hindu populations led to the creation of two separate states in1947; the Muslim-majority regions became East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) and West Pakistan (now Pakistan), separated by the Hindu-majority India. Although East Pakistan's population was larger, power lay with the military in the west, and authorities grew increasingly suppressive and neglectful of the eastern province in the following years. This reached a tipping point when authorities failed to respond adequately to the Bhola cyclone in 1970, which claimed over half a million lives in the Bengal region, and again when they failed to respect the results of the 1970 election, in which the Bengal party Awami League won the majority of seats. Bangladeshi independence was claimed the following March, leading to a brutal war between East and West Pakistan that claimed between 1.5 and three million deaths in just nine months. The war also saw over half of the country displaced, widespread atrocities, and the systematic rape of hundreds of thousands of women. As the war spilled over into India, their forces joined on the side of Bangladesh, and Pakistan was defeated two weeks later. An additional famine in 1974 claimed the lives of several hundred thousand people, meaning that the early 1970s was one of the most devastating periods in the country's history. Independent Bangladesh In the first decades of independence, Bangladesh's political hierarchy was particularly unstable and two of its presidents were assassinated in military coups. Since transitioning to parliamentary democracy in the 1990s, things have become comparatively stable, although political turmoil, violence, and corruption are persistent challenges. As Bangladesh continues to modernize and industrialize, living standards have increased and individual wealth has risen. Service industries have emerged to facilitate the demands of Bangladesh's developing economy, while manufacturing industries, particularly textiles, remain strong. Declining fertility rates have seen natural population growth fall in recent years, although the influx of Myanmar's Rohingya population due to the displacement crisis has seen upwards of one million refugees arrive in the country since 2017. In 2020, it is estimated that Bangladesh has a population of approximately 165 million people.

This study provides estimates of births, deaths and net-migration, by ethnic group, for each electoral ward (England and Wales) and local authority area (England, Wales and Scotland), for the period July 1st, 1991 –June 30th, 2001.

The study uses the eight-category classification of ethnic group: White, Caribbean, African, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Other. Ethnic group is not included in civil registration of births and deaths in the UK. These estimates are based on estimates of fertility of each ethnic group in each locality, based on local child/woman ratios, common schedules of mortality, and estimates of ethnic group population consistent with the latest estimates of mid-year population for 1991 and 2001 by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the General Register Office. Net migration is estimated indirectly as the residual after births and deaths are deducted from population change during the period 1991-2001, using standard methods of applied demography described in Simpson, Finney and Lomax (2008). There are no other estimates of demographic components of change for this period.

The eight ethnic group categories are known to be more stable between the two censuses of 1991 and 2001 than other possible classifications that amalgamate the 10 ethnic group categories of 1991 with the 16 ethnic group categories of 2001. The least stable categories across this time are Caribbean, African, and Other.

Further information is available on the Ethnic Group Population Change and Integration: a Demographic Approach to Small Area Ethnic Geographies ESRC Award web page.