Abstract

For the first time since 1982, in 2009, global trade flows will not grow. According to the latest IMF projections global trade in goods and services is expected to drop by 11% during 2009 and to stagnate in year 2010. The recent collapse in exports following the unfolding of the financial crisis has generated new pressing questions about the relationship between banking crises and exports growth. Are the supply shocks due to the collapse in the banking system responsible for the falls in exports? Or is what we observe completely attributable to the demand side where we have also observed unprecedented drops particularly in developed countries? In Iacovone and Zavacka (2009) we explore these questions using data, below, from 23 past banking crises episodes involving both developed and developing countries during 1980-2000.

Kind of data

Aggregate data [agg]

Mode of data collection

Other [oth]

The Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI), commonly known as "riesgo país" in Spanish speaking countries, is a weighted financial benchmark that measures the interest rates paid each day by a selected portfolio of government bonds from emerging countries. It is measured in base points, which reflect the difference between the return rates paid by emerging countries' government bonds and those offered by U.S. Treasury bills. This difference is defined as "spread". Which Latin American country has the highest risk bonds? As of September 19, 2024, Venezuela was the Latin American country with the greatest financial risk and highest expected returns of government bonds, with an EMBI spread of around 254 percent. This means that the annual interest rates paid by Venezuela's sovereign debt titles were estimated to be exponentially higher than those offered by the U.S. Treasury. On the other hand, Brazil's EMBI reached 207 index points at the end of August 2023. In 2023, Venezuela also had the highest average EMBI in Latin America, exceeding 40,000 base points. The impact of COVID-19 on emerging market bonds The economic crisis spawned by the coronavirus pandemic heavily affected the financial market's estimated risks of emerging governmental bonds. For instance, as of June 30, 2020, Argentina's EMBI spread had increased more than four percentage points in comparison to January 30, 2020. All the Latin American economies measured saw a significant increase of the EMBI spread in the first half of the year.