School supplies wholesalers have struggled with declining supply-chain relevance. Classrooms have become more digitized as computers and tablets become more common, and purchases of school supplies are often bought from online retailers that cut wholesalers out of the supply chain. Still, wholesalers continue to benefit from consistent need for basic supplies from primary and secondary schools, as well as college students, and the back-to-school season remains the second-largest shopping event nationally. As a result, industry-wide revenue is forecast to contract at a CAGR of 0.5% to total $3.7 billion in 2030. In 2025, the industry is expected to see another year of decline, with revenue dropping 1.0%. Compounding the school supplies wholesalers' struggles with the digitalization of the classroom, vertical integration and wholesaler bypass have compressed profit margins. Reduced spending on school supplies has intensified competition for wholesalers, who have felt immense pressure to lower their prices to stay in business. On top of this pressure, retailers are more able than ever to buy directly from school supply manufacturers, allowing them to lower purchasing costs. The internet has enabled manufacturers to operate low-cost online point-of-sales, pinching the industry between two compressing forces. The tariffs announced by the Trump administration could shrink margins further should they remain in place, as wholesalers will face sustained cost pressures from more expensive goods.The declining number of students in K-12 classrooms will further shrink the school supplies market. Digitalization will continue to make the industry's best-selling products obsolete, while wholesaler bypass and vertical integration in downstream markets will fuel the decline of school supply wholesaling. However, concerns about excessive digital use and the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in education have the potential to drive a renewed interest in traditional learning tools, although they are unlikely to entirely reverse the industry’s fortunes. Industry revenue is forecast to sink at a CAGR of 0.5% over the five years through 2030 to total $3.6 billion.