75 datasets found
  1. Treasury yield curve in the U.S. 2025

    • statista.com
    Updated Apr 16, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Treasury yield curve in the U.S. 2025 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1058454/yield-curve-usa/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Apr 16, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Apr 16, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

  2. T

    United States 8 Week Bill Yield Data

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Nov 3, 2021
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2021). United States 8 Week Bill Yield Data [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/8-week-bill-yield
    Explore at:
    excel, json, csv, xmlAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Nov 3, 2021
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Oct 17, 2018 - Jul 1, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The yield on US 8 Week Bill Bond Yield rose to 4.45% on July 1, 2025, marking a 0.04 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.13 points, though it remains 0.93 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 8 Week Bill Yield.

  3. T

    US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield Data

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Oct 11, 2014
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2014). US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield Data [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/2-year-note-yield
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    csv, excel, json, xmlAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Oct 11, 2014
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jun 1, 1976 - Jul 11, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 3.91% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.01 points and is 0.55 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

  4. 10-year government bond yield in the U.S. 1990-2024

    • statista.com
    Updated Jun 25, 2025
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    Statista (2025). 10-year government bond yield in the U.S. 1990-2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/698047/yield-on-10y-us-treasury-bond/
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    Dataset updated
    Jun 25, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    At the end of 2024, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was **** percent. Despite the increase in recent years, the highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

  5. F

    Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted...

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Jul 11, 2025
    + more versions
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    (2025). Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2
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    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jul 11, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domainhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domain

    Description

    Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2025-07-10 about 2-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

  6. F

    Federal government current expenditures: Interest payments

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated May 29, 2025
    + more versions
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    (2025). Federal government current expenditures: Interest payments [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA
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    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    May 29, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domainhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domain

    Description

    Graph and download economic data for Federal government current expenditures: Interest payments (A091RC1Q027SBEA) from Q1 1947 to Q1 2025 about payments, expenditures, federal, government, interest, GDP, and USA.

  7. T

    United States 52 Week Bill Yield Data

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Oct 15, 2014
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2014). United States 52 Week Bill Yield Data [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/52-week-bill-yield
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    excel, json, csv, xmlAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Oct 15, 2014
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 2, 1962 - Jul 11, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The yield on US 52 Week Bill Bond Yield rose to 4.08% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.02 points, though it remains 0.79 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 52 Week Bill Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

  8. U.S. monthly interest rate on interest-bearing debt 2019-2024

    • statista.com
    Updated Jun 24, 2025
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    Statista (2025). U.S. monthly interest rate on interest-bearing debt 2019-2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1382455/monthly-interest-rate-us-debt/
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    Dataset updated
    Jun 24, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Oct 2019 - Oct 2024
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    As of October 2024, the United States government has a monthly interest rate of *** percent on its debt, continuing an upward trend in interest rates that began at the beginning of 2022. In April 2024, U.S. debt reached ***** trillion U.S. dollars.

  9. T

    United States 20 Year bond Yield Data

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Aug 25, 2021
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2021). United States 20 Year bond Yield Data [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/20-year-bond-yield
    Explore at:
    json, xml, excel, csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Aug 25, 2021
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 4, 2012 - Jul 11, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The yield on US 20 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.95% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0.08 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.09 points and is 0.44 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for US 20Y.

  10. F

    ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Jun 23, 2025
    + more versions
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    (2025). ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
    Explore at:
    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jun 23, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-pre-approvalhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-pre-approval

    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    View data of the effective yield of an index of non-investment grade publically issued corporate debt in the U.S.

  11. U

    US Payment Cards Market Report

    • datainsightsmarket.com
    doc, pdf, ppt
    Updated Dec 19, 2024
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    Data Insights Market (2024). US Payment Cards Market Report [Dataset]. https://www.datainsightsmarket.com/reports/us-payment-cards-market-4784
    Explore at:
    doc, pdf, pptAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Dec 19, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Data Insights Market
    License

    https://www.datainsightsmarket.com/privacy-policyhttps://www.datainsightsmarket.com/privacy-policy

    Time period covered
    2025 - 2033
    Area covered
    Global
    Variables measured
    Market Size
    Description

    The size of the US Payment Cards Market was valued at USD XX Million in 2023 and is projected to reach USD XXX Million by 2032, with an expected CAGR of 6.00">> 6.00% during the forecast period. U.S. payment cards refer to cards issued by financial institutions in the United States that enable users to conduct financial transactions, including purchases, bill payments, and money transfers. These cards come in various forms, such as credit cards, debit cards, and prepaid cards. Each type of card functions differently: credit cards allow users to borrow money up to a certain limit and pay it back with or without interest; debit cards enable direct access to funds from the user’s bank account; and prepaid cards require the user to load funds onto the card before using it for purchases. Credit cards are widely used in the U.S. and offer revolving credit, where users can carry a balance from month to month. They often come with benefits like rewards programs, travel perks, and fraud protection. However, they also come with potential drawbacks, such as high-interest rates if balances are not paid in full. Debit cards, linked directly to a checking or savings account, are used to withdraw money from ATMs or to make purchases, with the transaction amount deducted immediately from the account. Prepaid cards are similar to debit cards but require users to load money onto the card before spending it. Recent developments include: On June 2022, Global digital payments firm Visa and Safaricom, the operator of the M-Pesa mobile money product, have today launched a virtual card, enabling millions of M-Pesa users to make digital payments globally including the US region. The virtual card will enable 30 million M-Pesa users to make cashless payments at Visa's global network of merchants. Users can activate the virtual card through the M-Pesa mobile app or by USSD., On April 2022, American Express Partners with Billtrust to offer suppliers a solution to accounts receivable challenges. B2B accounts receivable automation and integrated payments leader, to enable suppliers to streamline acceptance of American Express virtual cards. With this integration, suppliers will have the ability to automate and accelerate virtual card payments from customers while receiving a real-time view of their outstanding invoices and current cash flow.. Key drivers for this market are: Usage of Credit Card give the bonus and reward points. Potential restraints include: Interest rates on Credit Card. Notable trends are: Increase in the Penetration of Internet in the USA.

  12. U.S. Treasury securities held by Russia monthly 2020-2025

    • statista.com
    Updated Jun 7, 2025
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    Statista (2025). U.S. Treasury securities held by Russia monthly 2020-2025 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1226054/value-of-united-states-treasury-securities-held-by-russia/
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    Dataset updated
    Jun 7, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Jan 2020 - Mar 2025
    Area covered
    Russia
    Description

    The value of U.S. Treasury securities held by residents of Russia amounted to ** million U.S. dollars in March 2025, marking a stark contrast to ***** billion U.S. dollars held in January 2020. The lowest over the period under consideration was recorded in November 2023 at ** million U.S. dollars. Furthermore, in March 2020, the figure plummeted to **** billion U.S. dollars, down from **** billion U.S. dollars one month prior. Russia’s holdings of U.S. treasury securities have decreased since 2014 following the Western sanctions over the annexation of Crimea and have further dropped in 2022 after more restrictions were imposed over the war in Ukraine. What are U.S. treasury holdings? U.S. treasury holdings are government debt instruments that contribute to the funding of various government projects in the country. The U.S. Department of Treasury allows individuals and organizations to invest in treasury notes, bills, and bonds, which are the main three types of securities. Just under half of the outstanding ** trillion U.S. dollars as of May 2024 were in the form of treasury notes. The notes have varying maturities and coupon payment frequencies, which are different from the maturity periods of treasury bills and bonds. Main foreign holders of U.S. treasury securities Foreign holdings of U.S. treasury debt amounted to ***** trillion U.S. dollars as of January 2024. Japan and China held the largest portions, with China possessing ***** billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Additionally, other significant foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.

  13. T

    United States 6 Month Bill Yield Data

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Oct 11, 2014
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2014). United States 6 Month Bill Yield Data [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/6-month-bill-yield
    Explore at:
    xml, json, csv, excelAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Oct 11, 2014
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 4, 1982 - Jul 11, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The yield on US 6 Month Bill Bond Yield rose to 4.27% on July 11, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.01 points and is 0.91 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 6 Month Bill Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

  14. Mortgage delinquency rate in the U.S. 2000-2025, by quarter

    • statista.com
    • ai-chatbox.pro
    Updated May 27, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Mortgage delinquency rate in the U.S. 2000-2025, by quarter [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/205959/us-mortage-delinquency-rates-since-1990/
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    Dataset updated
    May 27, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    Following the drastic increase directly after the COVID-19 pandemic, the delinquency rate started to gradually decline, falling below *** percent in the second quarter of 2023. In the second half of 2023, the delinquency rate picked up, but remained stable throughout 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, **** percent of mortgage loans were delinquent. That was significantly lower than the **** percent during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 or the peak of *** percent during the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-2010. What does the mortgage delinquency rate tell us? The mortgage delinquency rate is the share of the total number of mortgaged home loans in the U.S. where payment is overdue by 30 days or more. Many borrowers eventually manage to service their loan, though, as indicated by the markedly lower foreclosure rates. Total home mortgage debt in the U.S. stood at almost ** trillion U.S. dollars in 2024. Not all mortgage loans are made equal ‘Subprime’ loans, being targeted at high-risk borrowers and generally coupled with higher interest rates to compensate for the risk. These loans have far higher delinquency rates than conventional loans. Defaulting on such loans was one of the triggers for the 2007-2010 financial crisis, with subprime delinquency rates reaching almost ** percent around this time. These higher delinquency rates translate into higher foreclosure rates, which peaked at just under ** percent of all subprime mortgages in 2011.

  15. F

    Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB Rate)

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Jun 20, 2025
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    (2025). Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB Rate) [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB
    Explore at:
    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jun 20, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domainhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domain

    Description

    Graph and download economic data for Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB Rate) (IORB) from 2021-07-29 to 2025-06-23 about reserves, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

  16. F

    Government current expenditures: Interest payments

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Jun 26, 2025
    + more versions
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    (2025). Government current expenditures: Interest payments [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A180RC1Q027SBEA
    Explore at:
    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jun 26, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domainhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domain

    Description

    Graph and download economic data for Government current expenditures: Interest payments (A180RC1Q027SBEA) from Q1 1947 to Q1 2025 about payments, expenditures, government, interest, GDP, and USA.

  17. F

    ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index Effective Yield

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Jul 11, 2025
    + more versions
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    (2025). ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index Effective Yield [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A1HYBBEY
    Explore at:
    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jul 11, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-pre-approvalhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-pre-approval

    Description

    Graph and download economic data for ICE BofA BB US High Yield Index Effective Yield (BAMLH0A1HYBBEY) from 1996-12-31 to 2025-07-10 about BB, yield, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

  18. Debt to the Penny

    • fiscaldata.treasury.gov
    csv, json, xml
    Updated Apr 12, 2022
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    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (2022). Debt to the Penny [Dataset]. https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/
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    json, csv, xmlAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Apr 12, 2022
    Dataset provided by
    United States Department of the Treasuryhttps://treasury.gov/
    Authors
    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY
    Time period covered
    Apr 1, 1993 - Jul 8, 2025
    Description

    Total outstanding debt of the U.S. government reported daily. Includes a breakout of intragovernmental holdings (federal debt held by U.S. government) and debt held by the public (federal debt held by entities outside the U.S. government).

  19. T

    United States 10 Year TIPS Yield Data

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Nov 5, 2021
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2021). United States 10 Year TIPS Yield Data [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/10-year-tips-yield
    Explore at:
    csv, excel, json, xmlAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Nov 5, 2021
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Feb 3, 1997 - Jul 10, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The yield on 10 Year TIPS Yield eased to 1.98% on July 10, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.14 points, though it remains 0.04 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 10 Year TIPS Yield.

  20. Daily Treasury Statement (DTS)

    • fiscaldata.treasury.gov
    csv, json, xml
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    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY, Daily Treasury Statement (DTS) [Dataset]. https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/
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    csv, json, xmlAvailable download formats
    Dataset provided by
    United States Department of the Treasuryhttps://treasury.gov/
    Authors
    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY
    Time period covered
    Oct 3, 2005 - Jul 9, 2025
    Description

    Get data on the daily cash and debt operations of the U.S. Treasury, including cash balance, deposits, and withdrawals; income tax refunds; and debt transactions.

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Statista (2025). Treasury yield curve in the U.S. 2025 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1058454/yield-curve-usa/
Organization logo

Treasury yield curve in the U.S. 2025

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6 scholarly articles cite this dataset (View in Google Scholar)
Dataset updated
Apr 16, 2025
Dataset authored and provided by
Statistahttp://statista.com/
Time period covered
Apr 16, 2025
Area covered
United States
Description

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

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