Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Rate, Central Tendency, High (PCECTPICTH) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, rate, and USA.

Core PCE Price Index Annual Change in the United States increased to 2.70 percent in May from 2.60 percent in April of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Core Pce Price Index Annual Change.

In 2020, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) of the United States came to *** percent in a year over year comparison to the previous period. The core PCE shows the prices paid by consumers for goods and services excluding food and energy, which experience high volatility. The core PCE is forecasted to have a *** percent year over year increase by 2024.

Graph and download economic data for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index (PCEPI) from Jan 1959 to May 2025 about chained, headline figure, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

PCE Price Index Annual Change in the United States increased to 2.30 percent in May from 2.20 percent in April of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States PCE Price Index Annual Change.

The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term.

Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee.

Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The data series is calculated by the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Calculating the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from “fell the most” to “rose the most,” and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are thrown out or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. The trimmed mean inflation rate is a proxy for true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional “excluding food and energy” measure as a gauge of core inflation.

United States FOMC Projection: PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 2.400 % in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.100 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.200 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.000 % in Dec 2022 and a record low of 2.100 % in Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I: PCE Price Index: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.

Graph and download economic data for Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) from Jan 1959 to May 2025 about chained, core, energy, headline figure, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation is today. Released each business day.

In September 2024, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index of the United States came to 123.22. The core PCE shows the prices paid by consumers for goods and services excluding food and energy, which experience high volatility. This enables an improved measure of inflation. A value above 100 indicates consumer spending is rising above the base year (2017) expenditures, while an index value below 100 shows a decline in spending.

United States Core PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Breakeven Inflation Rate: Breakeven Inflation: 10-Year data was reported at 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 05 May 2025. United States Core PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Breakeven Inflation Rate: Breakeven Inflation: 10-Year data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Apr 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 320 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.726 % in 20 Jul 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. United States Core PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Breakeven Inflation Rate: Breakeven Inflation: 10-Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Inflation: Core.

PCE Price Index in the United States increased to 126.11 points in May from 125.94 points in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

United States - Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate was 2.55000 % Chg. from Yr. Ago in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate reached a record high of 8.72000 in June of 1980 and a record low of 0.80000 in October of 2010. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee.

Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

We explain how measures of consumer prices are computed and what the differences are between the consumer price index (CPI) and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. We also explain various measures used to gauge underlying inflation, or the long-term trend in prices, such as median and trimmed-mean inflation rates and core inflation.

Core PCE Price Index in the United States increased to 125.51 points in May from 125.29 points in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Core Pce Price Index - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Lower End data was reported at 2.000 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.000 % for Sep 2024. FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Lower End data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.950 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.000 % in Dec 2024 and a record low of 1.700 % in Dec 2020. FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Lower End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I: PCE Price Index: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.

United States FRB Dallas: Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate: Six Month data was reported at 1.890 % in Oct 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.910 % for Sep 2018. United States FRB Dallas: Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate: Six Month data is updated monthly, averaging 2.410 % from Jul 1977 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 496 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.170 % in Mar 1980 and a record low of 0.630 % in Jul 2010. United States FRB Dallas: Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate: Six Month data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I041: Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate.

United States PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Breakeven Inflation Rate: Breakeven Inflation: 5-Year data was reported at 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 05 May 2025. United States PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Breakeven Inflation Rate: Breakeven Inflation: 5-Year data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 % from Apr 2019 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 320 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 13.158 % in 19 Aug 2024 and a record low of 0.000 % in 12 May 2025. United States PCE Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Breakeven Inflation Rate: Breakeven Inflation: 5-Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Inflation: Headline.