https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/
Over the past five years, for-profit universities have faced mounting headwinds amid regulatory tightening, inflation and negative public perception. While data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reports that overall postsecondary enrollment grew by just 0.5% from 2020 to 2025, enrollment at for-profit institutions shrank by 4.1%. Ballooning student debt and rising tuition, made worse by inflation in 2022 and 2023, have driven many recent graduates and adult learners to second-guess the value of higher education, especially degrees from for-profit schools with poor graduate earnings. Government regulations added further strain as the Biden administration's 2024 reinstatement of gainful employment rules once again linked access to federal funding to graduate debt-to-income ratios. At the same time, for-profit schools battled declining revenue as affordable nonprofit and vocational programs drew away budget-conscious students. Industry revenue has dropped at a CAGR of 0.5% to an estimated $13.6 billion over the five years through 2025. A faltering reputation has played a major role in the industry's decline. According to Federal Student Aid data, for-profit universities are repeatedly criticized for low graduation rates, weak graduate earnings and high student loan default rates—the highest across any demographic. Allegations of predatory practices remain in the headlines, exemplified by Walden University's $28.5 million lawsuit settlement in 2024. Although these institutions offer flexible scheduling and lower tuition rates that appeal to low-income and nontraditional students, the public remains wary. Studies indicate that most programs with no positive return on investment are at for-profit colleges. Meanwhile, stricter government scrutiny and the widespread availability of earnings and debt data have made poor outcomes highly visible, solidifying the negative perception. Many for-profit universities have shuttered, though some have managed to retain profit by closing physical locations. For-profit universities will continue facing a decline over the next five years. IBISWorld expects for-profit university enrollment to drop at an annualized 1.1% through 2030, outpaced by modest growth at nonprofit and vocational schools, where graduates see better employment outcomes. Uncertainty in regulations, including the possible repeal of the 90/10 rule, adds more volatility, while the lack of broad student loan forgiveness will likely suppress affordability and demand. As students and job seekers prioritize educational outcomes and cost, one in seven for-profit universities is expected to close by 2030. For-profit universities' revenue is set to sink at a CAGR of 0.3% to an estimated $13.4 billion through the next five years.
Not seeing a result you expected?
Learn how you can add new datasets to our index.
https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/https://www.ibisworld.com/about/termsofuse/
Over the past five years, for-profit universities have faced mounting headwinds amid regulatory tightening, inflation and negative public perception. While data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reports that overall postsecondary enrollment grew by just 0.5% from 2020 to 2025, enrollment at for-profit institutions shrank by 4.1%. Ballooning student debt and rising tuition, made worse by inflation in 2022 and 2023, have driven many recent graduates and adult learners to second-guess the value of higher education, especially degrees from for-profit schools with poor graduate earnings. Government regulations added further strain as the Biden administration's 2024 reinstatement of gainful employment rules once again linked access to federal funding to graduate debt-to-income ratios. At the same time, for-profit schools battled declining revenue as affordable nonprofit and vocational programs drew away budget-conscious students. Industry revenue has dropped at a CAGR of 0.5% to an estimated $13.6 billion over the five years through 2025. A faltering reputation has played a major role in the industry's decline. According to Federal Student Aid data, for-profit universities are repeatedly criticized for low graduation rates, weak graduate earnings and high student loan default rates—the highest across any demographic. Allegations of predatory practices remain in the headlines, exemplified by Walden University's $28.5 million lawsuit settlement in 2024. Although these institutions offer flexible scheduling and lower tuition rates that appeal to low-income and nontraditional students, the public remains wary. Studies indicate that most programs with no positive return on investment are at for-profit colleges. Meanwhile, stricter government scrutiny and the widespread availability of earnings and debt data have made poor outcomes highly visible, solidifying the negative perception. Many for-profit universities have shuttered, though some have managed to retain profit by closing physical locations. For-profit universities will continue facing a decline over the next five years. IBISWorld expects for-profit university enrollment to drop at an annualized 1.1% through 2030, outpaced by modest growth at nonprofit and vocational schools, where graduates see better employment outcomes. Uncertainty in regulations, including the possible repeal of the 90/10 rule, adds more volatility, while the lack of broad student loan forgiveness will likely suppress affordability and demand. As students and job seekers prioritize educational outcomes and cost, one in seven for-profit universities is expected to close by 2030. For-profit universities' revenue is set to sink at a CAGR of 0.3% to an estimated $13.4 billion through the next five years.