The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and May 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2024, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates in an effort to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

Abstract We test the hypothesis that public banks reduce monetary policy power for Brazilian economy, during the 2000-2018 period. Previous studies have shown that companies with access to government driven credit present smaller fall in investment and production after a contractionary monetary policy shock. Nevertheless, these studies are based on microeconomic data and ignore cost-push effects of monetary policy. We employ state dependent local projections (Jordà, 2005) to compare monetary policy power (defined as the sensibility of inflation to changes in basic interest rate) between periods of high credit of public banks and periods of high credit of private banks. We do not find evidence that monetary policy is less powerful in periods of high credit of public banks. Even though periods of high credit of public banks present a lower effect over output, those periods present less persistent price puzzles than periods of high private credit. We conduct several robustness tests to confirm our results. We attribute those results to lower flexibility in interest rates of credit from public banks, what leads to lower transmission in financial costs, lower reduction in capital stock and lower puzzle in exchange rate.

Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Purchase of Vehicles: Agiplan Financeira S.A. - CFI data was reported at 0.000 % pa in 03 Jul 2019. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % pa for 02 Jul 2019. Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Purchase of Vehicles: Agiplan Financeira S.A. - CFI data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 % pa from Jan 2012 (Median) to 03 Jul 2019, with 1867 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.000 % pa in 03 Jul 2019 and a record low of 0.000 % pa in 03 Jul 2019. Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Purchase of Vehicles: Agiplan Financeira S.A. - CFI data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Interest and Foreign Exchange Rates – Table BR.MB028: Lending Rate: per Annum: by Banks: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Purchase of Vehicles. Lending Rate: Daily: Interest rates disclosed represent the total cost of the transaction to the client, also including taxes and operating. These rates correspond to the average fees in the period indicated in the tables. There are presented only institutions that had granted during the period determined. In general, institutions practicing different rates within the same type of credit. Thus, the rate charged to a customer may differ from the average. Several factors such as the time and volume of the transaction, as well as the guarantees offered, explain the differences between interest rates. Certain institutions grant allowance of the use of the term overdraft. However, this is not considered in the calculation of rates of this type. It should be noted that the overdraft is a modality that has high interest rates. Thus, its use should be restricted to short periods. If the customer needs resources for a longer period, should find ways to offer lower rates. The Brazilian Central Bank publishes these data with a delay about 20 days with relation to the reference period, thus allowing sufficient time for all Financial Institutions to deliver the relevant information. Interest rates presented in this set of tables correspond to averages weighted by the values of transactions conducted in the five working days specified in each table. These rates represent the average effective cost of loans to customers, consisting of the interest rates actually charged by financial institutions in their lending operations, increased tax burdens and operational incidents on the operations. The interest rates shown are the average of the rates charged in the various operations performed by financial institutions, in each modality. In one discipline, interest rates may differ between customers of the same financial institution. Interest rates vary according to several factors, such as the value and quality of collateral provided in the operation, the proportion of down payment operation, the history and the registration status of each client, the term of the transaction, among others . Institutions with “zero” did not operate on modalities for those periods or did not provide information to the Central Bank of Brazil. The Central Bank of Brazil assumes no responsibility for delay, error or other deficiency of information provided for purposes of calculating average rates presented in this

In June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) began reducing its fixed interest rate for the first time since 2016, implementing a series of cuts. The rate decreased from 4.5 percent to 3.15 percent by year-end: a 0.25 percentage point cut in June, followed by additional reductions in September, October, and December. The central bank implemented other cuts in early 2025, setting the rate at 2.4 percent in April 2025. This marked a significant shift from the previous rate hike cycle, which began in July 2022 when the ECB raised rates to 0.5 percent and subsequently increased them almost monthly, reaching 4.5 percent by December 2023 - the highest level since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. How does this ensure liquidity? Banks typically hold only a fraction of their capital in cash, measured by metrics like the Tier 1 capital ratio. Since this ratio is low, banks prefer to allocate most of their capital to revenue-generating loans. When their cash reserves fall too low, banks borrow from the ECB to cover short-term liquidity needs. On the other hand, commercial banks can also deposit excess funds with the ECB at a lower interest rate. Reasons for fluctuations
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability. The Euro area inflation rate is, in theory, the key indicator guiding the ECB's actions. When the fixed interest rate is lower, commercial banks are more likely to borrow from the ECB, increasing the money supply and, in turn, driving inflation higher. When inflation rises, the ECB increases the fixed interest rate, which slows borrowing and helps to reduce inflation.

Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Purchase Other Goods: Luizacred S.A. SCFI data was reported at 117.150 % pa in 03 Jul 2019. This records an increase from the previous number of 116.600 % pa for 02 Jul 2019. Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Purchase Other Goods: Luizacred S.A. SCFI data is updated daily, averaging 108.480 % pa from Jan 2012 (Median) to 03 Jul 2019, with 1867 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 125.930 % pa in 29 Apr 2016 and a record low of 0.000 % pa in 29 Sep 2012. Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Purchase Other Goods: Luizacred S.A. SCFI data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Interest and Foreign Exchange Rates – Table BR.MB027: Lending Rate: per Annum: by Banks: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Purchase Other Goods. Lending Rate: Daily: Interest rates disclosed represent the total cost of the transaction to the client, also including taxes and operating. These rates correspond to the average fees in the period indicated in the tables. There are presented only institutions that had granted during the period determined. In general, institutions practicing different rates within the same type of credit. Thus, the rate charged to a customer may differ from the average. Several factors such as the time and volume of the transaction, as well as the guarantees offered, explain the differences between interest rates. Certain institutions grant allowance of the use of the term overdraft. However, this is not considered in the calculation of rates of this type. It should be noted that the overdraft is a modality that has high interest rates. Thus, its use should be restricted to short periods. If the customer needs resources for a longer period, should find ways to offer lower rates. The Brazilian Central Bank publishes these data with a delay about 20 days with relation to the reference period, thus allowing sufficient time for all Financial Institutions to deliver the relevant information. Interest rates presented in this set of tables correspond to averages weighted by the values of transactions conducted in the five working days specified in each table. These rates represent the average effective cost of loans to customers, consisting of the interest rates actually charged by financial institutions in their lending operations, increased tax burdens and operational incidents on the operations. The interest rates shown are the average of the rates charged in the various operations performed by financial institutions, in each modality. In one discipline, interest rates may differ between customers of the same financial institution. Interest rates vary according to several factors, such as the value and quality of collateral provided in the operation, the proportion of down payment operation, the history and the registration status of each client, the term of the transaction, among others . Institutions with “zero” did not operate on modalities for those periods or did not provide information to the Central Bank of Brazil. The Central Bank of Brazil assumes no responsibility for delay, error or other deficiency of information provided for purposes of calculating average rates presented in this

Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Mortgages with Regulated Rates: Golcred S.A. Credito Financiamento e Investimento data was reported at 0.000 % pa in 03 Jul 2019. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % pa for 02 Jul 2019. Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Mortgages with Regulated Rates: Golcred S.A. Credito Financiamento e Investimento data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 % pa from Jan 2012 (Median) to 03 Jul 2019, with 1867 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.000 % pa in 03 Jul 2019 and a record low of 0.000 % pa in 03 Jul 2019. Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Mortgages with Regulated Rates: Golcred S.A. Credito Financiamento e Investimento data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Interest and Foreign Exchange Rates – Table BR.MB037: Lending Rate: per Annum: by Banks: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Mortgages with Regulated Rates. Lending Rate: Daily: Interest rates disclosed represent the total cost of the transaction to the client, also including taxes and operating. These rates correspond to the average fees in the period indicated in the tables. There are presented only institutions that had granted during the period determined. In general, institutions practicing different rates within the same type of credit. Thus, the rate charged to a customer may differ from the average. Several factors such as the time and volume of the transaction, as well as the guarantees offered, explain the differences between interest rates. Certain institutions grant allowance of the use of the term overdraft. However, this is not considered in the calculation of rates of this type. It should be noted that the overdraft is a modality that has high interest rates. Thus, its use should be restricted to short periods. If the customer needs resources for a longer period, should find ways to offer lower rates. The Brazilian Central Bank publishes these data with a delay about 20 days with relation to the reference period, thus allowing sufficient time for all Financial Institutions to deliver the relevant information. Interest rates presented in this set of tables correspond to averages weighted by the values of transactions conducted in the five working days specified in each table. These rates represent the average effective cost of loans to customers, consisting of the interest rates actually charged by financial institutions in their lending operations, increased tax burdens and operational incidents on the operations. The interest rates shown are the average of the rates charged in the various operations performed by financial institutions, in each modality. In one discipline, interest rates may differ between customers of the same financial institution. Interest rates vary according to several factors, such as the value and quality of collateral provided in the operation, the proportion of down payment operation, the history and the registration status of each client, the term of the transaction, among others . Institutions with “zero” did not operate on modalities for those periods or did not provide information to the Central Bank of Brazil. The Central Bank of Brazil assumes no responsibility for delay, error or other deficiency of information provided for purposes of calculating average rates presented in this

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Mortgages with Market Rates: Agiplan Financeira S.A. - CFI data was reported at 0.000 % pa in 03 Jul 2019. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % pa for 02 Jul 2019. Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Mortgages with Market Rates: Agiplan Financeira S.A. - CFI data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 % pa from Jan 2012 (Median) to 03 Jul 2019, with 1817 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.000 % pa in 03 Jul 2019 and a record low of 0.000 % pa in 03 Jul 2019. Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Mortgages with Market Rates: Agiplan Financeira S.A. - CFI data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Interest and Foreign Exchange Rates – Table BR.MB036: Lending Rate: per Annum: by Banks: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Mortgages with Market Rates. Lending Rate: Daily: Interest rates disclosed represent the total cost of the transaction to the client, also including taxes and operating. These rates correspond to the average fees in the period indicated in the tables. There are presented only institutions that had granted during the period determined. In general, institutions practicing different rates within the same type of credit. Thus, the rate charged to a customer may differ from the average. Several factors such as the time and volume of the transaction, as well as the guarantees offered, explain the differences between interest rates. Certain institutions grant allowance of the use of the term overdraft. However, this is not considered in the calculation of rates of this type. It should be noted that the overdraft is a modality that has high interest rates. Thus, its use should be restricted to short periods. If the customer needs resources for a longer period, should find ways to offer lower rates. The Brazilian Central Bank publishes these data with a delay about 20 days with relation to the reference period, thus allowing sufficient time for all Financial Institutions to deliver the relevant information. Interest rates presented in this set of tables correspond to averages weighted by the values of transactions conducted in the five working days specified in each table. These rates represent the average effective cost of loans to customers, consisting of the interest rates actually charged by financial institutions in their lending operations, increased tax burdens and operational incidents on the operations. The interest rates shown are the average of the rates charged in the various operations performed by financial institutions, in each modality. In one discipline, interest rates may differ between customers of the same financial institution. Interest rates vary according to several factors, such as the value and quality of collateral provided in the operation, the proportion of down payment operation, the history and the registration status of each client, the term of the transaction, among others . Institutions with “zero” did not operate on modalities for those periods or did not provide information to the Central Bank of Brazil. The Central Bank of Brazil assumes no responsibility for delay, error or other deficiency of information provided for purposes of calculating average rates presented in this

Car loan interest rates in the United States decreased since mid-2024. Thus, the period of rapidly rising interest rates, when they increased from 3.85 percent in December 2021 to 7.91 percent in February 2024, has come to an end. The Federal Reserve interest rate is one of the main causes of the interest rates of loans rising or falling. If inflation stays under control, the Federal Reserve will start cutting the interest rates, which would have the effect of the cost of car loans falling too. How many cars have financing in the United States? Car financing exists because not everyone who wants or needs a car can purchase it outright. A financial institution will then lend the money to the customer for purchasing the car, which must then be repaid with interest. Most new vehicles in the United States in 2024 were purchased using car loans. It is not as common to use car loans for purchasing used vehicles as for new ones, although over a third of used vehicles were purchased using loans. The car industry in the United States The car financing business is huge in the United States, due to the high sales of both new and used vehicles in the country. A lot of the United States is very car-centric, which means that, outside large cities, it can often be difficult to do their daily commutes through other transportation methods. In fact, only a small percentage of U.S. workers used public transport to go to work. That is one of the factors that has helped establish the importance of the automotive sector in North America. Nevertheless, there are still countries in Asia-Pacific, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe with higher car-ownership rates than the United States.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.25 percent by February 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of December 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.59 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.27 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

In May 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in May 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

It can be seen that the mortgage interest rate in Poland increased overall during the period under observation, reaching a value of *** percent as of the fourth quarter of 2024. Demand for mortgage loans in Poland      Despite the tightening of credit policy by banks, the demand for mortgage loans is not decreasing. The residential market has also seen increases both in sales and in the construction of new premises. The increase in salaries combined with the decrease in the mortgage loan cost results in Poles having no problems buying apartments despite high prices. Higher wages also affect their creditworthiness, which is essential when applying for a mortgage. The value of housing loans amounted to a record ***** billion zloty in 2019. Despite a decrease in 2017, the value of debt in 2019 increased by *** percent compared to the previous year. The increase in wealth has also been reflected in the average value of mortgages. In 2021, Bank Millennium granted the largest number of mortgages to Poles, although Bank ****** was the leader in terms of value.   Demand for housing in Poland      Despite a growing number of flats, the prices are not falling, but on the contrary, they are continually rising. An increase in prices was recorded in every major city. The annual rise in prices in many cities went up between ** and ** percent. The most significant price increase on the primary market was recorded in ******, while on the secondary market, Wroclaw prevailed. Nevertheless, Poles pay the most for a flat in the Polish capital Warsaw. In December 2024, the price per square meter of an apartment on the secondary market exceeded **** thousand zloty, while the price per square meter on the primary market was close to **** thousand zloty. However, the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Poland in March 2020 affected the investment plans in the real estate market. Both individual customers and developers recorded a significant decline in the number of construction projects commenced during this period.

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Mortgage rates increased at a record pace in 2022, with the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubling between March 2022 and December 2022. With inflation increasing, the Bank of England introduced several bank rate hikes, resulting in higher mortgage rates. In May 2025, the average 10-year fixed rate interest rate reached **** percent. As borrowing costs get higher, demand for housing is expected to decrease, leading to declining market sentiment and slower house price growth. How have the mortgage hikes affected the market? After surging in 2021, the number of residential properties sold declined in 2023, reaching just above *** million. Despite the number of transactions falling, this figure was higher than the period before the COVID-19 pandemic. The falling transaction volume also impacted mortgage borrowing. Between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the value of new mortgage loans fell year-on-year for five straight quarters in a row. How are higher mortgages affecting homebuyers? Homeowners with a mortgage loan usually lock in a fixed rate deal for two to ten years, meaning that after this period runs out, they need to renegotiate the terms of the loan. Many of the mortgages outstanding were taken out during the period of record-low mortgage rates and have since faced notable increases in their monthly repayment. About **** million homeowners are projected to see their deal expire by the end of 2026. About *** million of these loans are projected to experience a monthly payment increase of up to *** British pounds by 2026.

Between January 2018 and May 2025, the United Kingdom's consumer price inflation rate showed notable volatility. The rate hit its lowest point at *** percent in August 2020 and peaked at *** percent in October 2022. By September 2024, inflation had moderated to *** percent, but the following months saw inflation increase again. The Bank of England's interest rate policy closely tracked these inflationary trends. Rates remained low at -* percent until April 2020, when they were reduced to *** percent in response to economic challenges. A series of rate increases followed, reaching a peak of **** percent from August 2023 to July 2024. The central bank then initiated rate cuts in August and November 2024, lowering the rate to **** percent, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. In February 2025, the Bank of England implemented another rate cut, setting the bank rate at *** percent, which was further reduced to **** percent in May 2025. Global context of inflation and interest rates The UK's experience reflects a broader international trend of rising inflation and subsequent central bank responses. From January 2022 to July 2024, advanced and emerging economies alike increased their policy rates to counter inflationary pressures. However, a shift began in late 2024, with many countries, including the UK, starting to lower rates. This change suggests a potential new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Comparison with other major economies The UK's monetary policy decisions align closely with those of other major economies. The United States, for instance, saw its federal funds rate peak at **** percent in August 2023, mirroring the UK's rate trajectory. Similarly, central bank rates in the EU all increased drastically between 2022 and 2024. These synchronized movements reflect the global nature of inflationary pressures and the coordinated efforts of central banks to maintain economic stability. As with the UK, both the U.S. and EU began considering rate cuts in late 2024, signaling a potential shift in the global economic landscape.

Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Mortgages with Market Rates: Banco La Nacion Argentina data was reported at 0.000 % pa in 03 Jul 2019. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % pa for 02 Jul 2019. Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Mortgages with Market Rates: Banco La Nacion Argentina data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 % pa from Jan 2012 (Median) to 03 Jul 2019, with 1817 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.000 % pa in 03 Jul 2019 and a record low of 0.000 % pa in 03 Jul 2019. Brazil Lending Rate: per Annum: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Mortgages with Market Rates: Banco La Nacion Argentina data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Brazil. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Interest and Foreign Exchange Rates – Table BR.MB036: Lending Rate: per Annum: by Banks: Pre-Fixed: Individuals: Mortgages with Market Rates. Lending Rate: Daily: Interest rates disclosed represent the total cost of the transaction to the client, also including taxes and operating. These rates correspond to the average fees in the period indicated in the tables. There are presented only institutions that had granted during the period determined. In general, institutions practicing different rates within the same type of credit. Thus, the rate charged to a customer may differ from the average. Several factors such as the time and volume of the transaction, as well as the guarantees offered, explain the differences between interest rates. Certain institutions grant allowance of the use of the term overdraft. However, this is not considered in the calculation of rates of this type. It should be noted that the overdraft is a modality that has high interest rates. Thus, its use should be restricted to short periods. If the customer needs resources for a longer period, should find ways to offer lower rates. The Brazilian Central Bank publishes these data with a delay about 20 days with relation to the reference period, thus allowing sufficient time for all Financial Institutions to deliver the relevant information. Interest rates presented in this set of tables correspond to averages weighted by the values of transactions conducted in the five working days specified in each table. These rates represent the average effective cost of loans to customers, consisting of the interest rates actually charged by financial institutions in their lending operations, increased tax burdens and operational incidents on the operations. The interest rates shown are the average of the rates charged in the various operations performed by financial institutions, in each modality. In one discipline, interest rates may differ between customers of the same financial institution. Interest rates vary according to several factors, such as the value and quality of collateral provided in the operation, the proportion of down payment operation, the history and the registration status of each client, the term of the transaction, among others . Institutions with “zero” did not operate on modalities for those periods or did not provide information to the Central Bank of Brazil. The Central Bank of Brazil assumes no responsibility for delay, error or other deficiency of information provided for purposes of calculating average rates presented in this

After a period of gradual decline, the average annual rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States rose to **** percent in 2023, up from the record-low **** percent in 2021. In 2024, interest rates declined slightly. The rate for 15-year fixed mortgages and five-year ARM mortgages followed a similar trend. This was a result of the Federal Reserve increasing the bank rate - a measure introduced to tackle the rising inflation. U.S. home prices going through the roof Mortgage rates have a strong impact on the market – the lower the rate, the lower the loan repayment. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreasing after the Great Recession has stimulated the market and boosted home sales. Another problem consumers face is the fact that house prices are rising at an unaffordable level. The median sales price of a new home sold surged in 2021, while the median weekly earnings of a full-time employee maintained a more moderate increase. What are the differences between 15-year and 30-year mortgages? Two of the most popular loan terms available to homebuyers are the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The 30-year option appeals to more consumers because the repayment is spread out over 30 years, meaning the monthly payments are lower. Consumers choosing the 15-year option will have to pay higher monthly payments but benefit from lower interest rates.

Personal savings in the United States reached a value of 975 billion U.S. dollars in 2024, marking a slight increase compared to 2023. Personal savings peaked in 2020 at nearly 2.7 trillion U.S. dollars. Those figures remained very high until 2021. The excess savings during the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. and other countries were the main reason for that increase, as the measures implemented to contain the spread of the virus had an impact on consumer spending. Saving before and after the 2008 financial crisis During the periods of growth and certain economic stability in the pre-2008 crisis period, there were falling savings rates. People were confident the good times would stay and felt comfortable borrowing money. Credit was easily accessible and widely available, which encouraged people to spend money. However, in times of austerity, people generally tend to their private savings due to a higher economic uncertainty. That was also the case in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Savings and inflation The economic climate of high inflation and rising Federal Reserve interest rates in the U.S. made it increasingly difficult to save money in 2022. Not only does inflation affect the ability of people to save, but reversely, consumer behavior also affects inflation. On the one hand, prices can increase when the production costs are higher. That can be the case, for example, when the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil or other raw materials increases. On the other hand, when people have a lot of savings and the economy is strong, high levels of consumer demand can also increase the final price of products.