This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in US Monetary Policy and the Recent Surge in Inflation, PIIE Working Paper 24-13.

If you use the data, please cite as:

Reifschneider, David. 2024. US Monetary Policy and the Recent Surge in Inflation. PIIE Working Paper 24-13. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and January 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at 9.1 percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at 5.33 percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to 4.33 percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was 158.11 percent, up from 153.12 a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future, PIIE Working Paper 24-22.

If you use the data, please cite as:

Dynan, Karen, and Douglas Elmendorf. 2024. Fiscal policy and the pandemic-era surge in US inflation: Lessons for the future. PIIE Working Paper 24-22. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

In January 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 21 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at 0.5 percent in January 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data and charts presented in The Inflation Surge in Europe by Patrick Honohan, PIIE Policy Brief 24-2.

If you use the data, please cite as: Honohan, Patrick. 2024. The Inflation Surge in Europe. PIIE Policy Brief 24-2. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

As of 2024, the inflation rate in Turkey stood at 61 percent, the highest among all EU candidate countries. Inflation was around five percent in Moldova, Ukraine, and Serbia. The convergence of economic conditions towards that of the rest of the European Union is an important part of the Copenhagen Criteria - the political, economic, and institutional conditions which must be satisfied for a country to enter the European Union. Fulfilling the economic criteria for entry into the EU is supposed to guarantee that a new member state has a functioning market economy which can handle the economic pressures of competition in the European Single Market.

Canada's inflation rate experienced significant fluctuations from 2018 to 2025. Inflation peaked at 8.1 percent in June 2022 before steadily declining to 1.9 percent by January 2025. In response to rising inflation between 2020 and 2022, the Bank of Canada implemented aggressive interest rate hikes. The bank rate reached a maximum of 5.25 percent in July 2023 and remained stable until June 2024. As inflationary pressures eased in the second half of 2024, the central bank reduced interest rates to 3.5 percent in December 2024. This pattern reflected broader global economic trends, with most advanced and emerging economies experiencing similar inflationary challenges and monetary policy adjustments. Global context of inflation and interest rates The Canadian experience aligns with the broader international trend of central banks raising policy rates to combat inflation. Between 2021 and 2023, nearly all advanced and emerging economies increased their central bank rates. However, a shift occurred in the latter half of 2024, with many countries, including Canada, beginning to lower rates. This change suggests a new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Notably, among surveyed countries, Russia maintained the highest interest rate in early 2025, while Japan had the lowest rate. Comparison with the United States The United States experienced a similar trajectory in inflation and interest rates. U.S. inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022, slightly higher than Canada's peak. The Federal Reserve responded with a series of rate hikes, reaching 5.33 percent in August 2023. This rate remained unchanged until September 2024, when the first cut since September 2021 was implemented. In contrast, Canada's bank rate peaked at 5.25 percent and began decreasing earlier, with cuts in June and July 2024. These differences highlight the nuanced approaches of central banks in managing their respective economies amid global inflationary pressures.

India CPI Inflation Projection: Annual: 4th Monetary Policy Statement data was reported at 4.500 % in 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 5.400 % for 2024. India CPI Inflation Projection: Annual: 4th Monetary Policy Statement data is updated yearly, averaging 5.350 % from Mar 2022 (Median) to 2025, with 4 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.700 % in 2023 and a record low of 4.500 % in 2025. India CPI Inflation Projection: Annual: 4th Monetary Policy Statement data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of India. The data is categorized under India Premium Database’s Inflation – Table IN.IA002: RBI Monetary Policy Statement: Inflation Projection.

The enduring discourse regarding the effectiveness of interest rate policy in mitigating inflation within developing economies is characterized by the interplay of structural and supply-side determinants. Moreover, extant academic literature fails to resolve the direction of causality between inflation and interest rates. Nevertheless, the prevalent adoption of interest rate-based monetary policies in numerous developing economies raises a fundamental inquiry: What motivates central banks in these nations to consistently espouse this strategy? To address this inquiry, our study leverages wavelet transformation to dissect interest rate and inflation data across a spectrum of frequency scales. This innovative methodology paves the way for a meticulous exploration of the intricate causal interplay between these pivotal macroeconomic variables for twenty-two developing economies using monthly data from 1992 to 2022. Traditional literature on causality tends to focus on short- and long-run timescales, yet our study posits that numerous uncharted time and frequency scales exist between these extremes. These intermediate scales may wield substantial influence over the causal relationship and its direction. Our research thus extends the boundaries of existing causality literature and presents fresh insights into the complexities of monetary policy in developing economies. Traditional wisdom suggests that central banks should raise interest rates to combat inflation. However, our study uncovers a contrasting reality in developing economies. It demonstrates a positive causal link between the policy rate and inflation, where an increase in the central bank’s interest rates leads to an upsurge in price levels. Paradoxically, in response to escalating prices, the central bank continues to heighten the policy rate, thereby perpetuating this cyclical pattern. Given this observed positive causal relationship in developing economies, central banks must explore structural and supply-side factors to break this cycle and regain control over inflation.

India CPI Inflation Projection: Quarterly: 3rd Monetary Policy Statement data was reported at 4.400 % in Jun 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 4.300 % for Mar 2025. India CPI Inflation Projection: Quarterly: 3rd Monetary Policy Statement data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.800 % from Sep 2017 (Median) to Jun 2025, with 27 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.100 % in Sep 2022 and a record low of 3.000 % in Sep 2017. India CPI Inflation Projection: Quarterly: 3rd Monetary Policy Statement data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of India. The data is categorized under India Premium Database’s Inflation – Table IN.IA002: RBI Monetary Policy Statement: Inflation Projection.

This data package includes the underlying data and files to replicate the calculations, charts, and tables presented in Inflation and Activity: Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications, PIIE Working Paper 15-19. If you use the data, please cite as: Blanchard, Olivier, Eugenio Cerutti, and Lawrence H. Summers. (2015). Inflation and Activity: Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications. PIIE Working Paper 15-19. Peterson Institute for International Economics.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the calculations, charts, and tables presented in The case for a cautiously optimistic outlook for US inflation, PIIE Policy Brief 22-3.

If you use the data, please cite as: Reifschneider, David, and David Wilcox (2022). The case for a cautiously optimistic outlook for US inflation, PIIE Policy Brief 22-3. Peterson Institute for International Economics.

India CPI Inflation Projection: Quarterly: 6th Monetary Policy Statement data was reported at 4.200 % in Mar 2026. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.800 % for Dec 2025. India CPI Inflation Projection: Quarterly: 6th Monetary Policy Statement data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.700 % from Jun 2017 (Median) to Mar 2026, with 35 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.500 % in Mar 2020 and a record low of 2.800 % in Mar 2019. India CPI Inflation Projection: Quarterly: 6th Monetary Policy Statement data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of India. The data is categorized under India Premium Database’s Inflation – Table IN.IA002: RBI Monetary Policy Statement: Inflation Projection.

I estimate various backward-looking and forward-looking Taylor rules augmented with variables that indicate proximity to an election and whether the Fed Chair and the majority of a chamber of Congress share the same political party affiliation to investigate whether Congress has influenced Federal Reserve policy from 1961 to 2020. I find that the Fed is susceptible to pressures from the Senate. In line with previous work, left-leaning politicians exhibit a higher tolerance for inflation. This results in the federal funds rate being lower by about 2.35 points when the Democratic party has a Senate majority. Second, while I find some evidence that the House and the Fed Chair sharing partisan affiliation results in tighter policy, this result is not robust to alternative measures of inflation. Finally, I find persuasive evidence that Congressional pressures on the Fed do not create a political monetary cycle around elections.

Between January 2018 and February 2025, the United Kingdom's consumer price inflation rate showed notable volatility. The rate hit its lowest point at 0.5 percent in August 2020 and peaked at 9.6 percent in October 2022. By September 2024, inflation had moderated to 2.6 percent, but the following months saw inflation increase again. The Bank of England's interest rate policy closely tracked these inflationary trends. Rates remained low at 0.5-0.75 percent until April 2020, when they were reduced to 0.1 percent in response to economic challenges. A series of rate increases followed, reaching a peak of 5.25 percent from August 2023 to July 2024. The central bank then initiated rate cuts in August and November 2024, lowering the rate to 4.75 percent, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. In February 2025, the Bank of England implemented another rate cut, setting the bank rate at 4.5 percent. Global context of inflation and interest rates The UK's experience reflects a broader international trend of rising inflation and subsequent central bank responses. From January 2022 to July 2024, advanced and emerging economies alike increased their policy rates to counter inflationary pressures. However, a shift began in late 2024, with many countries, including the UK, starting to lower rates. This change suggests a potential new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Comparison with other major economies The UK's monetary policy decisions align closely with those of other major economies. The United States, for instance, saw its federal funds rate peak at 5.33 percent in August 2023, mirroring the UK's rate trajectory. Similarly, central bank rates in the EU all increased drastically between 2022 and 2024. These synchronized movements reflect the global nature of inflationary pressures and the coordinated efforts of central banks to maintain economic stability. As with the UK, both the U.S. and EU began considering rate cuts in late 2024, signaling a potential shift in the global economic landscape.

ABSTRACT This paper aims to evaluate the performance of the monetary policy of inflation targeting regime in the Latin America countries from 2001 to 2014, with monthly data. For this purpose, a VEC model (vector error correction) is applied to running data to analyze the long-term function and the impulse response function. The results pointed out that the adoption of the target system has contributed to reduce the inflation rate and its volatility and the fluctuations in the rate of growth in activity level. The estimated parameters of the long-term speed of adjustment of the price index have indicated strong reaction by the monetary authorities to change inflation rate via short-term interest rate. These adjustments are also noted in the level of activity and the exchange rate for most countries, but with less level of speed. The impulse response function confirmed these results. Therefore, the monetary policy was effective to control inflation, especially in Peru, Colombia and Chile. In Brazil and Mexico, the effectiveness of monetary policy has only been observed more recently.

Inflation Rate in Japan decreased to 3.70 percent in February from 4 percent in January of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Japan Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Governments'™ party identifications can indicate the types of economic policies they are likely to pursue. A common rule of thumb is that left-party governments are expected to pursue policies for lower unemployment, but which may cause inflation. Right-party governments are expected to pursue lower inflation policies. How do these expectations shape the inflation forecasts of monetary policy bureaucrats? If there is a mismatch between the policies bureaucrats expect governments to implement and those that they actually do, forecasts will be systematically biased. Using US Federal Reserve Staff'™s forecasts we test for executive partisan biases. We find that irrespective of actual policy and economic conditions forecasters systematically overestimate future inflation during left-party presidencies and underestimate future inflation during right-party ones. Our findings suggest that partisan heuristics play an important part in monetary policy bureaucrats'™ inflation expectations.

Research data associated with the manuscript: [1] Górajski, M., Kuchta, Z., Leszczyńska-Paczesna, A., 2022, Price-setting heterogeneity and robust monetary policy in a two-sector DSGE model of a small open economy

The Readme file describes all user-defined MATLAB functions that solve the robust monetary policy rules and replicate the main results from Section 4. We group them into four folders: main_estimation, main_robust_simple_rules, main_sensitivity_analysis, and main_simulations.

This work is supported by the National Science Centre in Poland under Grant No. 2017/26/D/HS4/00942.

Abstract This paper offers a welfare analysis of robust simple monetary policy rules in a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. The model assumes price-setting heterogeneity between two sectors of the economy: the production of food and energy goods, and the remaining consumption goods and services. We determine monetary policy rules that minimise the Bayesian risk and take into account the uncertainty of the economic environment. Using this approach we propose a robust price index. To illustrate an application, we estimate the model on Polish data and compare expected welfare losses under implementable monetary policy rules. We show that reacting to core inflation improves social welfare more than responding to headline inflation. Moreover, the choice between the robust headline and core inflation rules may depend on country-specific factors, such as the share of food and energy in a consumption bundle or the level of competitiveness.

India CPI Inflation Projection: Annual: 6th Monetary Policy Statement data was reported at 4.200 % in 2026. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.500 % for 2025. India CPI Inflation Projection: Annual: 6th Monetary Policy Statement data is updated yearly, averaging 4.950 % from Mar 2023 (Median) to 2026, with 4 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.500 % in 2023 and a record low of 4.200 % in 2026. India CPI Inflation Projection: Annual: 6th Monetary Policy Statement data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of India. The data is categorized under India Premium Database’s Inflation – Table IN.IA002: RBI Monetary Policy Statement: Inflation Projection.