This data collection consists of two election surveys. Part 1, Pre-Congressional Poll, contains a nationwide telephone survey conducted in late September 1978, focusing on the respondents' voting intentions for the 1978 United States Congressional elections. A total of 1,451 randomly selected adults were surveyed. Respondents were asked whether they intended to vote and what issues would influence their vote, their reactions to President Carter's policies, and their preferences for presidential candidates in 1980. Demographic information including age, race, religion, income, political orientation, and education is available for each respondent. Part 2, Nationwide Election Day Poll, contains a nationwide "exit" survey conducted at the polls on election day, November 7, 1978. A total of 8,808 randomly selected voters were asked to fill out a questionnaire asking which party they voted for in the Congressional election and their opinion on a number of current political issues. Demographic information for respondents in Part 2 includes age, race, religion, income, and labor union affiliation. These datasets were made available to the ICPSR by the Election and Survey Unit of CBS News. The Pre-Congressional Poll was conducted solely by CBS News.

Recent technological advances have facilitated the collection of large-scale administrative data and the online surveying of the Indian population. Building on these we propose a strategy for more robust, frequent and transparent projections of the Indian vote during the campaign. We execute a modified MrP model of Indian vote preferences that proposes innovations to each of its three core components: stratification frame, training data, and a learner. For the post-stratification frame we propose a novel Data Integration approach that allows the simultaneous estimation of counts from multiple complementary sources, such as census tables and auxiliary surveys. For the training data we assemble panels of respondents from two unorthodox online populations: Amazon Mechanical Turks workers and Facebook users. And as a modeling tool, we replace the Bayesian multilevel regression learner with Random Forests. Our 2019 pre-election forecasts for the two largest Lok Sahba coalitions were very close to actual outcomes: we predicted 41.6% for the NDA, against an observed value of 45.0\% and 30.6\% for the UPA against an observed vote share of just under 31.3\%. Our uniform-swing seat projection outperforms other pollsters -- we had the lowest absolute error of 87 seats.

Abstract (en): CBS News and The New York Times were partners in a series of election surveys covering the 1976 United States presidential election campaign. The surveys were intended to provide another dimension to the political reporting of the two organizations. The surveys, using extensive coverage early in the primary campaign, were designed to monitor the public's changing perception of the candidates, the issues, and the candidates' positions vis-a-vis the issues. Parts 1-9 contain separate nationwide surveys conducted by telephone, with approximately 1,500 randomly selected adults. Five surveys were conducted monthly from February through June, and four more between early September and the general election -- one in September and one following each presidential debate. A final survey was conducted two days after the general election. Respondents were asked for their preferred presidential candidate, their ratings of the candidates' qualifications and positions, and their opinions on a variety of political issues. Part 10, the Election Day Survey, contains a national sample of voters who were interviewed at the polls. Respondents were asked to fill out a questionnaire that asked the name of the presidential candidate for whom they had just voted, and other questions about their political preferences. Part 11 contains data for respondents who were first interviewed in Part 9, Debate Three Survey, and recontacted and reinterviewed for the Post-Election Survey. Data include respondents' voting history, their evaluation of the nominees' positions on various political issues, and their opinions on current political and social issues. Parts 12-26 contain surveys conducted in 12 states on the day of the primary at the polling place, among a random sample of people who had just voted in either the Democratic or Republican presidential primary election. These surveys were conducted in the following primary states: California, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There are separate files for the Democratic and Republican primaries in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and California, making a total of fifteen primary day "exit" surveys. Respondents were asked whom they voted for and why, the issues that were important in making their choice, and their voting history. Demographic information on respondents in all surveys may include sex, race, age, religion, education, occupation, and labor union affiliation. These files were processed by the Roper Center under a cooperative arrangement with ICPSR. Most of these data were collected by CBS News and The New York Times. The Election Day Survey was conducted solely by CBS News. Parts 1-11 were made available to the ICPSR by CBS News. ICPSR data undergo a confidentiality review and are altered when necessary to limit the risk of disclosure. ICPSR also routinely creates ready-to-go data files along with setups in the major statistical software formats as well as standard codebooks to accompany the data. In addition to these procedures, ICPSR performed the following processing steps for this data collection: Performed consistency checks.; Standardized missing values.; Checked for undocumented or out-of-range codes.. Parts 1-6: Persons in households with telephones in the coterminous United States. Parts 7-9 and 11: Registered voters with telephones in the coterminous United States. Parts 10 and 12-26: Voters in the 1976 primary election. (1) These files contain weights, which must be used in any data analysis. (2) There is no card image data for Part 3 and there is only card image data for Parts 11-19. Also, this collection does not contain data for Oregon as the machine-readable documentation indicates.

Abstract

The Gallup Poll Social Series (GPSS) is a set of public opinion surveys designed to monitor U.S. adults' views on numerous social, economic, and political topics. The topics are arranged thematically across 12 surveys. Gallup administers these surveys during the same month every year and includes the survey's core trend questions in the same order each administration. Using this consistent standard allows for unprecedented analysis of changes in trend data that are not susceptible to question order bias and seasonal effects.

Introduced in 2001, the GPSS is the primary method Gallup uses to update several hundred long-term Gallup trend questions, some dating back to the 1930s. The series also includes many newer questions added to address contemporary issues as they emerge.

The dataset currently includes responses from up to and including 2025.

Methodology

Gallup conducts one GPSS survey per month, with each devoted to a different topic, as follows:

January: Mood of the Nation

February: World Affairs

March: Environment

April: Economy and Finance

May: Values and Beliefs

June: Minority Rights and Relations (discontinued after 2016)

July: Consumption Habits

August: Work and Education

September: Governance

October: Crime

November: Health

December: Lifestyle (conducted 2001-2008)

The core questions of the surveys differ each month, but several questions assessing the state of the nation are standard on all 12: presidential job approval, congressional job approval, satisfaction with the direction of the U.S., assessment of the U.S. job market, and an open-ended measurement of the nation's "most important problem." Additionally, Gallup includes extensive demographic questions on each survey, allowing for in-depth analysis of trends.

Interviews are conducted with U.S. adults aged 18 and older living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia using a dual-frame design, which includes both landline and cellphone numbers. Gallup samples landline and cellphone numbers using random-digit-dial methods. Gallup purchases samples for this study from Survey Sampling International (SSI). Gallup chooses landline respondents at random within each household based on which member had the next birthday. Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Gallup conducts interviews in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking.

Gallup interviews a minimum of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older for each GPSS survey. Samples for the June Minority Rights and Relations survey are significantly larger because Gallup includes oversamples of Blacks and Hispanics to allow for reliable estimates among these key subgroups.

Gallup weights samples to correct for unequal selection probability, nonresponse, and double coverage of landline and cellphone users in the two sampling frames. Gallup also weights its final samples to match the U.S. population according to gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density, and phone status (cellphone only, landline only, both, and cellphone mostly).

Demographic weighting targets are based on the most recent Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S. population. Phone status targets are based on the most recent National Health Interview Survey. Population density targets are based on the most recent U.S. Census.

Usage

The year appended to each table name represents when the data was last updated. For example, January: Mood of the Nation - 2025** **has survey data collected up to and including 2025.

For more information about what survey questions were asked over time, see the Supporting Files.

Bulk Data Access

Data access is required to view this section.

This study is part of a continuing series of monthly polls that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Each data file in the collection represents a distinct nationwide survey that was conducted during 1979. Approximately 1,000-1,500 randomly selected adults were interviewed by telephone in each poll. Respondents were asked to give their opinions of President Jimmy Carter and his handling of the presidency, foreign affairs, and the economy, as well as their views on a range of current social and economic issues. In addition the March 1979 Poll on Peace in the Middle East (Part 3) focused specifically on the peace treaty signed by Egypt and Israel. Respondents were asked if they believed this agreement would lead to long-term peace between the two nations, whether peace between Israel and other Arab countries was likely, and whether President Carter's participation and the United States' role in facilitating negotiations were necessary to achieve the peace agreement. Nuclear power and energy shortages were explored in Part 4, April 1979 Poll on Nuclear Power. Respondents were asked if they agreed that there was a need for more nuclear power plants, how they felt about having a nuclear power plant in their own community, and, given the choice, if they would rather build more power plants, cut back on personal use of energy, or pay higher prices for foreign oil. Other questions concerned how increasing gasoline prices might affect driving habits, the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident, and whether or not solar energy could solve the energy crisis. The June 1979 Poll-Pre-1980 Election (Part 5) focused on qualities voters looked for in presidential candidates and how ongoing domestic and international issues might affect their pre-election voting preferences. Specific topics included inflation, the energy crisis, and the arms race. Respondents were asked how rising gasoline prices, lines at gas stations, and the prospect of gasoline rationing had impacted their lives and driving habits, what they thought about the arms limitation talks between the United States and the Soviet Union, and whether the SALT treaty, if approved, would reduce the chance of war with the Soviet Union. The primary focus of Part 6, July 1979 Poll on the Oil Shortage, were gasoline and oil shortages, gasoline rationing, increasing energy prices, proposals for reducing energy consumption, and the United States' dependence on foreign oil. Respondents' views on presidential candidates, the influx of Asian refugees ('boat people'), and the possible legalization of marijuana were also elicited. The Mid-July 1979 Poll after President Carter's Speech (Part 7) explored respondents' reactions to the crisis in national confidence that President Carter had referred to in his televised speech. Respondents were asked whether they believed there was a crisis in confidence in the country, and if listening to the speech had changed their own sense of confidence in the United States. In Part 8, November 1979 Poll on Issues of 1979 (with Pre-1980 Election Focus), respondents were asked to rate how they felt things were going in the United States and in their personal life, how this compared to five years before and whether they anticipated the following five years to be better or worse. Additional questions concerned leadership qualities of presidential candidates, abortion rights, the ordination of women, whether the United States should negotiate with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and whether the SALT treaty should or should not be approved by the Senate. Background information on respondents includes voter participation history, political party affiliation, political orientation, age, race, religion, education, household income, armed forces service, and participation in labor unions.

Abstract (en): This study consists of four surveys conducted in 16 of the 21 states that held primary elections on Super Tuesday, March 8, 1988. Parts 1-3 are telephone surveys conducted from late January through early March. In Parts 1 and 2, respondents were asked if they were registered to vote, their party designation, if they intended to vote in the Democratic or Republican presidential primary, for whom they would vote if the primary were held that day, toward which candidate they were leaning, the strength of their support, and any candidates they definitely would not vote for. Additional questions sought the respondent's opinions on which party had a better chance of winning in November, the Reagan presidency, and the two most important issues in the presidential campaign. In Part 3, a sample of respondents from Parts 1 and 2 were recontacted by phone and asked for whom they would vote if the primary were being held that day, toward whom they were leaning, and the strength of their support. In Part 4, voters were asked to fill out questionnaires as they exited the polling places. They were asked whether they voted in the Democratic or Republican primary, and for whom they voted. Voters given the long form of the questionnaire were queried on additional topics including the Reagan presidency and items important in making their choice that day. Background information on all respondents in this collection includes education, age, religion, race, sex, income, voting history, and political orientation. The adult population, aged 18 and over, of 16 states holding primary elections on Super Tuesday, March 8, 1988. Part 3: Respondents from Parts 1 and 2. Part 4: Voters from 16 states participating in the March 8, 1988 primary elections. Parts 1-3: Households were selected by random digit dialing. Part 4: Polling places were chosen by random selection. 2006-01-18 File CB8995.ALL.PDF was removed from any previous datasets and flagged as a study-level file, so that it will accompany all downloads. Parts 1-3 contain weight variables that must be used in analysis. The data contain blanks and dashes (-).

Granite State Poll (GSP) is a quarterly poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Each poll conducts random-sample telephone interviews with about 500 New Hampshire adults. Survey Center interviewers ask basic demographic questions that are common for all polls, along with varied political and client-proposed questions. The GSP data archived here combine results from three separate polls (conducted in February, April and August 2018), which included four questions related to preferences about dams. These questions were designed by Natallia Leuchanka Diessner, Catherine M. Ashcraft, Kevin H. Gardner, and Lawrence C. Hamilton as part of the "Future of Dams" project. This archived dataset includes questions about dams in New Hampshire and other background factors most relevant to this study. The first text file is the metadata file, the second file is in format ready to be open in STATA software (.dta), and the third file is in a .csv format.The metadata readme.txt file was generated by Natallia Leuchanka Diessner and Lawrence C. Hamilton, and was reviewed and approved by all co-authors.

On November 2nd, 2010, UMass students sampled voters leaving their polling places at 18 randomly selected voting precincts throughout the state of Massachusetts. This exit poll was directed by Professor Brian Schaffner and was designed and conducted by students in his honors class “Political Polling and Survey Research.”

ABSTRACT This paper compares the results of more than two thousand pre-electoral polls between 2012 and 2020 with the official electoral results in five Brazilian elections. We examine the effects of random and non-random factors, such as sample size and the time before the elections, on differences between the polls’ estimates and the ballot results. Among other findings, we show that later polls, conducted just before the election, with large samples, are better at minimizing errors. We also document that polls for presidential and gubernatorial elections and second-round elections exhibit lower error rates. Taken together, our results suggest that Brazilian pre-electoral polls perform similarly to polls conducted in other countries.

Random Forest model performance on synthetic training data.

Abstract (en): This special topic poll, fielded October 16-20, 2008, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on a range of political and social issues. The topic of this survey was government performance in the state of Maryland, slot machines, and the budget deficit. Residents of Maryland were asked about the job performance of Governor Martin O'Malley and whether they approved of the way he is handling his job as governor. Respondents identified the most important issues facing the state of Maryland, whether the state was moving in the right direction, and rated the condition of the state economy. Respondents were also asked what the chances were that they would vote in the upcoming presidential election. Several questions asked for respondents' opinions on Question Two on the state ballot: the constitutional amendment about slot machines in Maryland. Respondents were asked whether they approved of having slot machines in Maryland, what was the main reason they either approved or disapproved of slot machines, and if the slots plan passed, they thought it would help the state's budget situation. Respondents were queried on their thoughts of the direction of the nation's economy as well as their own family's financial situation. Respondents were asked about their impressions of the candidates for Maryland governor in 2010, and who they would vote for in the election. Demographic variables include sex, age, race, household income, education level, voter registration status, political party affiliation, political philosophy, religious preference, religiosity, union membership, whether respondent is a born-again Christian, and the presence of children under age 18 living at the residence. The data contain a weight variable (WEIGHT) that should be used in analyzing the data. The data were weighted using demographic information from the Census to adjust for sampling and non-sampling deviations from population values. Respondents customarily were classified into one of 48 cells based on age, race, sex, and education. Weights were assigned so the proportion in each of these 48 cells matched the actual population proportion according to the Census Bureau's most recent Current Population Survey. ICPSR data undergo a confidentiality review and are altered when necessary to limit the risk of disclosure. ICPSR also routinely creates ready-to-go data files along with setups in the major statistical software formats as well as standard codebooks to accompany the data. In addition to these procedures, ICPSR performed the following processing steps for this data collection: Standardized missing values.; Created online analysis version with question text.; Checked for undocumented or out-of-range codes.. Persons aged 18 and over living in households with telephones in the state of Maryland. Households were selected by random-digit dialing. Within households, the respondent selected was the adult living in the household who last had a birthday and who was home at the time of the interview. Please refer to the codebook documentation for more information on sampling. 2010-11-09 Updated codebook. computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI)The data available for download are not weighted and users will need to weight the data prior to analysis.The variables PCTBLACK, PCTASIAN, PCTHISP, MSAFLAG, CSA, CBSA, METRODIV, NIELSMKT, BLOCKCNT, and ZIP were converted from character variables to numeric.To preserve respondent confidentiality, codes for the variables FIPS (FIPS County) and ZIP (ZIP Code) have been replaced with blank codes.System-missing values were recoded to -1.The CASEID variable was created for use with online analysis. The data collection was produced by Taylor Nelson Sofres of Horsham, PA. Original reports using these data may be found via the ABC News Polling Unit Web site and via the Washington Post Opinion Surveys and Polls Web site.

Abstract

Gallup Worldwide Research continually surveys residents in more than 150 countries, representing more than 98% of the world's adult population, using randomly selected, nationally representative samples. Gallup typically surveys 1,000 individuals in each country, using a standard set of core questions that has been translated into the major languages of the respective country. In some regions, supplemental questions are asked in addition to core questions. Face-to-face interviews are approximately 1 hour, while telephone interviews are about 30 minutes. In many countries, the survey is conducted once per year, and fieldwork is generally completed in two to four weeks. The Country Dataset Details spreadsheet displays each country's sample size, month/year of the data collection, mode of interviewing, languages employed, design effect, margin of error, and details about sample coverage.

Gallup is entirely responsible for the management, design, and control of Gallup Worldwide Research. For the past 70 years, Gallup has been committed to the principle that accurately collecting and disseminating the opinions and aspirations of people around the globe is vital to understanding our world. Gallup's mission is to provide information in an objective, reliable, and scientifically grounded manner. Gallup is not associated with any political orientation, party, or advocacy group and does not accept partisan entities as clients. Any individual, institution, or governmental agency may access the Gallup Worldwide Research regardless of nationality. The identities of clients and all surveyed respondents will remain confidential.

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

SAMPLING AND DATA COLLECTION METHODOLOGY With some exceptions, all samples are probability based and nationally representative of the resident population aged 15 and older. The coverage area is the entire country including rural areas, and the sampling frame represents the entire civilian, non-institutionalized, aged 15 and older population of the entire country. Exceptions include areas where the safety of interviewing staff is threatened, scarcely populated islands in some countries, and areas that interviewers can reach only by foot, animal, or small boat.

Telephone surveys are used in countries where telephone coverage represents at least 80% of the population or is the customary survey methodology (see the Country Dataset Details for detailed information for each country). In Central and Eastern Europe, as well as in the developing world, including much of Latin America, the former Soviet Union countries, nearly all of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, an area frame design is used for face-to-face interviewing.

The typical Gallup Worldwide Research survey includes at least 1,000 surveys of individuals. In some countries, oversamples are collected in major cities or areas of special interest. Additionally, in some large countries, such as China and Russia, sample sizes of at least 2,000 are collected. Although rare, in some instances the sample size is between 500 and 1,000. See the Country Dataset Details for detailed information for each country.

FACE-TO-FACE SURVEY DESIGN

FIRST STAGE In countries where face-to-face surveys are conducted, the first stage of sampling is the identification of 100 to 135 ultimate clusters (Sampling Units), consisting of clusters of households. Sampling units are stratified by population size and or geography and clustering is achieved through one or more stages of sampling. Where population information is available, sample selection is based on probabilities proportional to population size, otherwise simple random sampling is used. Samples are drawn independent of any samples drawn for surveys conducted in previous years.

There are two methods for sample stratification:

METHOD 1: The sample is stratified into 100 to 125 ultimate clusters drawn proportional to the national population, using the following strata: 1) Areas with population of at least 1 million 2) Areas 500,000-999,999 3) Areas 100,000-499,999 4) Areas 50,000-99,999 5) Areas 10,000-49,999 6) Areas with less than 10,000

The strata could include additional stratum to reflect populations that exceed 1 million as well as areas with populations less than 10,000. Worldwide Research Methodology and Codebook Copyright © 2008-2012 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 8

METHOD 2:

A multi-stage design is used. The country is first stratified by large geographic units, and then by smaller units within geography. A minimum of 33 Primary Sampling Units (PSUs), which are first stage sampling units, are selected. The sample design results in 100 to 125 ultimate clusters.

SECOND STAGE

Random route procedures are used to select sampled households. Unless an outright refusal occurs, interviewers make up to three attempts to survey the sampled household. To increase the probability of contact and completion, attempts are made at different times of the day, and where possible, on different days. If an interviewer cannot obtain an interview at the initial sampled household, he or she uses a simple substitution method. Refer to Appendix C for a more in-depth description of random route procedures.

THIRD STAGE

Respondents are randomly selected within the selected households. Interviewers list all eligible household members and their ages or birthdays. The respondent is selected by means of the Kish grid (refer to Appendix C) in countries where face-to-face interviewing is used. The interview does not inform the person who answers the door of the selection criteria until after the respondent has been identified. In a few Middle East and Asian countries where cultural restrictions dictate gender matching, respondents are randomly selected using the Kish grid from among all eligible adults of the matching gender.

TELEPHONE SURVEY DESIGN

In countries where telephone interviewing is employed, random-digit-dial (RDD) or a nationally representative list of phone numbers is used. In select countries where cell phone penetration is high, a dual sampling frame is used. Random respondent selection is achieved by using either the latest birthday or Kish grid method. At least three attempts are made to reach a person in each household, spread over different days and times of day. Appointments for callbacks that fall within the survey data collection period are made.

PANEL SURVEY DESIGN

Prior to 2009, United States data were collected using The Gallup Panel. The Gallup Panel is a probability-based, nationally representative panel, for which all members are recruited via random-digit-dial methodology and is only used in the United States. Participants who elect to join the panel are committing to the completion of two to three surveys per month, with the typical survey lasting 10 to 15 minutes. The Gallup Worldwide Research panel survey is conducted over the telephone and takes approximately 30 minutes. No incentives are given to panel participants. Worldwide Research Methodology and Codebook Copyright © 2008-2012 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 9

Research instrument

QUESTION DESIGN

Many of the Worldwide Research questions are items that Gallup has used for years. When developing additional questions, Gallup employed its worldwide network of research and political scientists1 to better understand key issues with regard to question development and construction and data gathering. Hundreds of items were developed, tested, piloted, and finalized. The best questions were retained for the core questionnaire and organized into indexes. Most items have a simple dichotomous ("yes or no") response set to minimize contamination of data because of cultural differences in response styles and to facilitate cross-cultural comparisons.

The Gallup Worldwide Research measures key indicators such as Law and Order, Food and Shelter, Job Creation, Migration, Financial Wellbeing, Personal Health, Civic Engagement, and Evaluative Wellbeing and demonstrates their correlations with world development indicators such as GDP and Brain Gain. These indicators assist leaders in understanding the broad context of national interests and establishing organization-specific correlations between leading indexes and lagging economic outcomes.

Gallup organizes its core group of indicators into the Gallup World Path. The Path is an organizational conceptualization of the seven indexes and is not to be construed as a causal model. The individual indexes have many properties of a strong theoretical framework. A more in-depth description of the questions and Gallup indexes is included in the indexes section of this document. In addition to World Path indexes, Gallup Worldwide Research questions also measure opinions about national institutions, corruption, youth development, community basics, diversity, optimism, communications, religiosity, and numerous other topics. For many regions of the world, additional questions that are specific to that region or country are included in surveys. Region-specific questions have been developed for predominantly Muslim nations, former Soviet Union countries, the Balkans, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, China and India, South Asia, and Israel and the Palestinian Territories.

The questionnaire is translated into the major conversational languages of each country. The translation process starts with an English, French, or Spanish version, depending on the region. One of two translation methods may be used.

METHOD 1: Two independent translations are completed. An independent third party, with some knowledge of survey research methods, adjudicates the differences. A professional translator translates the final version back into the source language.

METHOD 2: A translator

Elections in Belarus attract much attention around the world. The election result is declared as a victory of Mr. Lukashenko with 80% votes. It is interesting to give the simplest statistical analysis of this victory. According to Belarus law, protocols of precinct election commissions (PECs) must be posted up just after the election procedure, so that everybody could take a photograph of the protocols. Currently, 1527 of the 5767 protocols of PECs are available in the open access at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17aK3JxBTGtzULB0-YZGOF0hJwhuViHO3/edit#gid=84585767. We focus an attention on two arrays of numbers taken from these photographs. Namely, the number Ni of voters at some polling station and the number Mi of voters for Mr. Lukashenko at the same polling station. These numbers give a possibility to calculate the average percentage of those who voted for Mr. Lukashenko, which turns out to be about 60%. That is, a random sample approximately of ¼ of total number of protocol gives a value that differs at about 20% from the declared total value 80%. Using Monte-Carlo simulation we have calculated a probability of this event and obtain less than one part in million. Next we have considered Ni and Mi as the random variables and calculate probability distribution functions for Mi/Ni and Mi/

Methods Notebook is for Wolfram Mathematica, version 12. It use smoothed Gaussian kernel to calculate probability distribution functions. Files *.txt contain Ni and Mi arrays for city of Minsk, ans five regions of Belarus. A notebook DistributionsGenBel.nb calculates probability distribution functions for x=Mi/Ni and y=Mi/

Abstract

In many emerging democracies women are less likely to vote than men and, when they do vote, are likely to follow the wishes of male household and clan heads. We assess the impact of a voter awareness campaign on female turnout, candidate choice and party vote shares. Geographic clusters within villages were randomly assigned to treatment or control, and within treated clusters, some households were not targeted. Compared to women in control clusters, both targeted and untargeted women in treated clusters are 12 percentage points more likely to vote, and are also more likely to exercise independence in candidate choice, indicating large spillovers. Data from polling stations suggests that treating 10 women increased female turnout by about 7 votes, resulting in a cost per vote of US$ 3.1 Finally, a 10 percent increase in the share of treated women at the polling station led to a 6 percent decrease in the share of votes of the winning party.

Geographic coverage

Rural areas of districts Sukkur and Khairpur in the southern province of Sindh.

Analysis unit

Household Individual

Universe

The survey was administered to all women in the household above 18 years old as well as the male household head or the male spouse if the head was a woman.

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

A typical sample cluster yielded about 15 sample households and 41 sample women. In total, 2,736 women from 1,018 households were reached. During the door-to-door visit, basic data on each sample household was collected, including the GPS location of the house and a basic roster of all adult women with their past voting record and the name and address of their closest friend or confidant in the village. The confidant was selected as follows: in every even numbered household, the confidant of a woman who was either a daughter or a daughter in law of the household head was selected, while in every odd numbered household, the confidant of the household head (if the head was a woman) or the head’s wife, sister, mother or aunt was selected. Not all households yielded at least one “eligible” woman using this rule, so the final sample includes 797 confidants. Of these, almost all were in the same cluster as the sample women who identified them, but only 18 confidants were also in a sampled household. The door-to-door visit took 20 to 25 minutes for treated households and 5 to 10 minutes for control households. No selected household refused to be interviewed, although in a few cases a repeat visit took place on the same day. None of the households refused to participate in the awareness campaign.

Vote verification took place between the evening of February 18th, Election Day, and allday February 19th. On the evening of February 19th, the survey firm sent out a field team to each village to check 10 percent of the verifier’s assignment at random. They found no significant differences. However, the village based vote verifiers were unable to locate 99 sample women (in 27 households), roughly 3 percent of the sample. The final sample, therefore, has 2637 women and 991 households. All 797 confidants were found and their vote verified. Attrition is, therefore, quite low and unrelated to treatment assignment (see Panel A, Appendix Table OA8). In addition, 158 women claimed to have cast a vote but did not have the requisite ink mark. To be conservative, we treat these women as not having voted although the results do not change when these women are coded as voters.

Mode of data collection

Face-to-face [f2f]

Research instrument

The questionnaires for this survey include:

• Pre-Election Visit Questionnaire: Due to time and budget constraints, only one of the control clusters in each village was included in the pre-election survey, with the exception of one large village in which two control clusters were selected.

• Voting Verification Form- For Village Informant

• Final Voting Questionnaire (Female) - The survey was administered to all women in the household above 18 years old as well as the male household head or the male spouse if the head was a woman

• Final Voting Questionnaire (Male) - The survey was administered to all women in the household above 18 years old as well as the male household head or the male spouse if the head was a woman

Results for the Massachusetts U.S. Senate Special Election Poll are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 589 Massachusetts registered voters. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (n=411) and cell phone (n=178). The survey was conducted by RKM Research and Communications (RKM). Interviews were conducted in English, March 2-5, 2013. The survey was administered using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system. The CATI system allows data to be entered directly into a computerized database as interviews are conducted. A central polling facility in Portsmouth, New Hampshire was used to administer the survey. All interviews were conducted by paid, trained and professionally supervised interviewers.

Abstract

The survey on financial literacy among the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina was conducted within a larger project that aims at creating the Action Plan for Consumer Protection in Financial Services.

The conclusion about the need for an Action Plan was reached by the representatives of the World Bank, the Federal Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, supervisory authorities for entity financial institutions and non-governmental organizations for the protection of consumer rights, based on the Diagnostic Review on Consumer Protection and Financial Literacy in Bosnia and Herzegovina conducted by the World Bank in 2009-2010. This diagnostic review was conducted at the request of the Federal Ministry of Finance, as part of a larger World Bank pilot program to assess consumer protection and financial literacy in developing countries and middle-income countries. The diagnostic review in Bosnia and Herzegovina was the eighth within this project.

The financial literacy survey, whose results are presented in this report, aims at establishing the basic situation with respect to financial literacy, serving on the one hand as a preparation for the educational activities plan, and on the other as a basis for measuring the efficiency of activities undertaken.

Geographic coverage

Data collection was based on a random, nation-wide sample of citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina aged 18 or older (N = 1036).

Analysis unit

Household, individual

Universe

Population aged 18 or older

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

SUMMARY

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, as is well known, there is no completely reliable sample frame or information about universe. The main reasons for such a situation are migrations caused by war and lack of recent census data. The last census dates back to 1991, but since then the size and distribution of population has significantly changed. In such a situation, researchers have to combine all available sources of population data to estimate the present size and structure of the population: estimates by official statistical offices and international organizations, voters? lists, list of polling stations, registries of passport and ID holders, data from large random surveys etc.

The sample was three-stage stratified: in the first stage by entity, in the second by county/region and in the third by type of settlement (urban/rural). This means that, in the first stage, the total sample size was divided in two parts proportionally to number of inhabitants by entity, while in the second stage the subsample size for each entity was further divided by regions/counties. In the third stage, the subsample for each region/county was divided in two categories according to settlement type (rural/urban).

Taking into the account the lack of a reliable and complete list of citizens to be used as a sample frame, a multistage sampling method was applied. The list of polling stations was used as a frame for the selection of primary sampling units (PSU). Polling station territories are a good choice for such a procedure since they have been recently updated, for the general elections held in October 2010. The list of polling station territories contains a list of addresses of housing units that are certainly occupied.

In the second stage, households were used as a secondary sampling unit. Households were selected randomly by a random route technique. In total, 104 PSU were selected with an average of 10 respondents per PSU. The respondent from the selected household was selected randomly using the Trohdal-Bryant scheme.

In total, 1036 citizens were interviewed with a satisfactory response rate of around 60% (table 1). A higher refusal rate is recorded among middle-age groups (table 2). The theoretical margin of error for a random sample of this size is +/-3.0%.

Due to refusals, the sample structure deviated from the estimated population structure by gender, age and education level. Deviations were corrected by RIM weighting procedure.

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION

IPSOS designed a representative sample of approximately 1.000 residents age 18 and over, proportional to the adult populations of each region, based on age, sex, region and town (settlement) type.

For this research we designed three-stage stratified representative sample. First we stratify sample at entity level, regional level and then at settlement type level for each region.

Sample universe:

Population of B&H -18+; 1991 Census figures and estimated population dynamics, census figures of refugees and IDPs, 1996. Central Election Commision - 2008; CIPS - 2008;

Sampling frame:

Polling stations territory (approximate size of census units) within strata defined by regions and type of settlements (urban and rural) Polling stations territories are chosen to be used as primary units because it enables the most reliable sample selection, due to the fact that for these units the most complete data are available (dwelling register - addresses)

Type of sample:

Three stage random representative stratified sample

Definition and number of PSU, SSU, TSU, and sampling points

• PSU - Polling station territory Definition: Polling stations territories are defined by street(s) name(s) and dwelling numbers; each polling station territory comprises approximately 300 households, with exception of the settlements with less than 300 HH which are defined as one unite. Number of PSUs in sample universe: 4710
• SSU - Household Definition: One household comprises people living in the same apartment and sharing the expenditure for food
• TSU - Respondent Definition: Member of the HH , 18+ Number of TSUs in sample universe: = 2.966.766
• Sampling points Approximately 10 respondents per one PSU, total 104

Stratification, purpose and method

• First level strata: Federation of B&H Republika Srpska Brc ko District
• Second level strata: 10 cantons 2 regions -
• Third level strata: urban and rural settlements
• Purpose: Optimisation of the sample plan, and reducing the sampling error

• Method: The strata are defined by criteria of optimal geographical and cultural uniformity

• Selection procedure of PSU, SSU, and respondent Stratification, purpose and method

• PSU Type of sampling of the PSU: Polling station territory chosen with probability proportional to size (PPS) Method of selection: Cumulative (Lachirie method)

• SSU Type of sampling of the SSU: Sample random sampling without replacement Method of selection: Random walk - Random choice of the starting point

• TSU - Respondent Type of sampling of respondent: Sample random sampling without replacement Method of selection: TCB (Trohdal-Bryant scheme)

• Sample size N=1036 respondents

• Sampling error Marginal error +/-3.0%

Mode of data collection

Face-to-face [f2f]

Research instrument

The survey was modelled after the identical survey conducted in Romania. The questionnaire used in the Financial Literacy Survey in Romania was localized for Bosnia and Herzegovina, including adaptations to match the Bosnian context and methodological improvements in wording of questions.

Cleaning operations

Before data entry, 100% logic and consistency controls are performed first by local supervisors and once later by staff in central office.

Verification of correct data entry is assured by using BLAISE system for data entry (commercial product of Netherlands statistics), where criteria for logical and consistency control are defined in advance.

Response rate

• Nobody at home: 2,8%
• Eligible person is not home: 2,8%
• Refusal : 32,79%
• Given up after a minimum of two visits: 0,82%
• Other (excluded after control): 0,29%
• Finished: 60,5%

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner. To collect information on voters and voting on the day of the Presidential Election, 1980. Multi-stage stratified random sample two-stage Self-completion

In this May 2004 ABC News/Washington Post poll, a random national sample of 1,005 Americans were asked to give their views on the relationship between religion and politics. Questions were also asked concerning the 2004 election. Demographic variables include: Gender, age, race, income, religion and education.

This dataverse includes STATA code and data to replicate "Strategic Votes and Sincere Counterfactuals"

Abstract (en): This special topic poll, conducted October 31, 2002, was undertaken to assess respondents' views prior to the November 2002 elections. Respondents were asked about their past voting history, the likelihood that they would vote in the November 2002 elections, and their political party preference. Respondents were also asked to give their opinions on how President George W. Bush and his administration were handling the following: the war on terrorism, Social Security, the economy, health care, prescription drug benefits, and the war with Iraq. They were asked whether these issues affected their voting selections and if so, in what way. Opinions of President George W. Bush, his effectiveness as a leader, and his effect on the November 2002 elections were solicited. In addition, respondents asked about what the priorities of the nation should be, the current state of the national economy, and their personal financial situation. Background information includes age, education, ethnicity, household income, sex, religious orientation, political orientation, and whether the respondent lived in an urban, suburban, or rural area. Persons aged 18 and over living in households with telephones in the contiguous 48 United States. Households were selected by random-digit dialing. Within households, the respondent selected was the adult living in the household who last had a birthday and who was home at the time of the interview. Additional information about sampling, interviewing, weighting, and sampling error may be found in the codebook.The data are provided as an SPSS portable file.This collection has not been processed by ICPSR staff. ICPSR is distributing the data and documentation for this collection in essentially the same form in which they were received. When appropriate, documentation has been converted to Portable Document Format (PDF), data files have been converted to non-platform-specific formats, and variables have been recoded to ensure respondents' privacy.Produced by Taylor Nelson Sofres, Horsham, PA, 2002.