Facebook
TwitterAttribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
There is great debate surrounding the demographic impact of China’s population control policies, especially the one-birth restrictions, which ended only recently. We apply an objective, data-driven method to construct the total fertility rates and population size of a ‘synthetic China’, which is assumed to be not subjected to the two major population control policies implemented in the 1970s. We find that while the earlier, less restrictive ‘later-longer-fewer’ policy introduced in 1973 played a critical role in driving down the fertility rate, the role of the ‘one-child policy’ introduced in 1979 and its descendants was much less significant. According to our model, had China continued with the less restrictive policies that were implemented in 1973 and followed a standard development trajectory, the path of fertility transition and total population growth would have been statistically very similar to the pattern observed over the past three decades.
Facebook
Twitterhttps://researchintelo.com/privacy-and-policyhttps://researchintelo.com/privacy-and-policy
According to our latest research, the global animal population control market size in 2024 stands at USD 2.47 billion, with a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% projected through the forecast period. By 2033, the market is expected to reach a value of USD 4.84 billion, reflecting the growing emphasis on animal welfare, public health, and sustainable management practices. The primary growth factor driving this market is the increasing awareness among governments and animal welfare organizations regarding the adverse effects of uncontrolled animal populations, including zoonotic disease transmission, ecological imbalance, and public safety concerns.
One of the most significant growth drivers for the animal population control market is the heightened focus on public health and zoonotic disease prevention. As urbanization accelerates and human-animal interactions become more frequent, the risk of disease transmission from stray and wild animals to humans has increased. Governments and health agencies worldwide are investing heavily in animal birth control programs, vaccination campaigns, and sterilization initiatives to mitigate the spread of diseases such as rabies, leptospirosis, and other zoonoses. These efforts are further bolstered by international organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), which advocate for humane and effective animal population management as a critical component of global health security. The integration of advanced sterilization techniques, including non-surgical and chemical methods, has also expanded the toolkit available to veterinarians and animal welfare professionals, making population control more accessible and efficient.
Another pivotal factor fueling the expansion of the animal population control market is the increasing involvement of animal welfare organizations and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). These entities play a crucial role in implementing on-ground sterilization drives, awareness campaigns, and rescue operations, especially in regions with high stray animal populations. Their collaborations with local governments, veterinary clinics, and international donors have led to the development of sustainable and scalable population control programs. Additionally, the rising trend of pet adoption and responsible pet ownership in developed and emerging economies has amplified the demand for sterilization and contraceptive solutions for companion animals. This shift in societal attitudes towards animal welfare is not only driving market growth but also encouraging innovation in non-invasive and reversible contraception methods, which are gaining traction due to their ethical and practical benefits.
Technological advancements and regulatory support have also played a significant role in shaping the animal population control market. Innovations in non-surgical sterilization, such as immunocontraceptives and chemical sterilants, are providing safer and more cost-effective alternatives to traditional surgical procedures. Regulatory agencies in several countries are streamlining approval processes for new contraceptive products, recognizing their potential to address overpopulation humanely and efficiently. Furthermore, the integration of digital technologies for tracking, monitoring, and managing animal populations is enhancing the effectiveness of control programs. These technological developments, coupled with favorable government policies and funding, are expected to sustain the market's upward trajectory throughout the forecast period.
From a regional perspective, North America currently dominates the animal population control market, accounting for the largest share in 2024, followed closely by Europe and the Asia Pacific. The United States, in particular, has set benchmarks with its extensive spay/neuter programs, robust regulatory framework, and active participation from animal welfare organizations. Europe is witnessing steady growth, driven by stringent animal welfare laws and increasing public awareness. Meanwhile, the Asia Pacific region is emerging as a high-growth market, fueled by rapid urbanization, rising stray animal populations, and government initiatives to curb zoonotic diseases. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are also showing promising potential, with increasing investments in animal health infrastructure and population control measures. These regional dynamics hi
Facebook
TwitterAttribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
Countries resembling China with significant weights.
Facebook
Twitterhttps://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/7062/termshttps://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/7062/terms
This study was conducted in 1953 and 1954 in both urban and rural areas of Puerto Rico. The interviews explored the relationship between husband and wife in questions about family organization and role, degree of intimacy, sexual relations, and satisfaction with the marriage. Further variables probed attitudes toward children: ideal family size, the importance of children in marriage, and parent-child relations. The study also examined the respondents' attitudes toward birth control, knowledge of where to obtain birth control materials, and birth control methods the respondents used. Derived measures include several Guttman scales. Of the total sample, 566 interviews were conducted with wives only, and 322 with husbands and wives together.
Facebook
Twitterhttps://search.gesis.org/research_data/datasearch-httpwww-da-ra-deoaip--oaioai-da-ra-de441139https://search.gesis.org/research_data/datasearch-httpwww-da-ra-deoaip--oaioai-da-ra-de441139
Abstract (en): This study was conducted in 1953 and 1954 in both urban and rural areas of Puerto Rico. The interviews explored the relationship between husband and wife in questions about family organization and role, degree of intimacy, sexual relations, and satisfaction with the marriage. Further variables probed attitudes toward children: ideal family size, the importance of children in marriage, and parent-child relations. The study also examined the respondents' attitudes toward birth control, knowledge of where to obtain birth control materials, and birth control methods the respondents used. Derived measures include several Guttman scales. Of the total sample, 566 interviews were conducted with wives only, and 322 with husbands and wives together. ICPSR data undergo a confidentiality review and are altered when necessary to limit the risk of disclosure. ICPSR also routinely creates ready-to-go data files along with setups in the major statistical software formats as well as standard codebooks to accompany the data. In addition to these procedures, ICPSR performed the following processing steps for this data collection: Created variable labels and/or value labels.. Nuclear families in Puerto Rico, with the husband and wife married 5 to 20 years and living together, having at least one child, and with an education level of six grades or less. Two sampling designs were used in this study: an area probability sample to determine the extent and knowledge of contraception, and a quota sample drawn to include a sufficient number of families with different birth control experiences. The quota sample was selected from two subsamples of families that had attended outpatient departments and pre-maternal clinics of nine public health centers representing different regions (seven rural, two urban) of Puerto Rico. These families fell into four different categories: those who had never used birth control devices, active users of these devices, those who had stopped using methods of birth control, and those who had been sterilized. In addition, the quota sample was stratified by rural-urban residence and length of marriage. 2009-11-13 SAS, SPSS, and Stata setups have been added to this data collection.
Facebook
Twitterhttps://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/20002/termshttps://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/20002/terms
The 1965 National Fertility Survey was the first of three surveys that succeeded the Growth of American Families surveys (1955 and 1960) aimed at examining marital fertility and family planning in the United States. Currently married women were queried on the following main topics: residence history, marital history, education, income and employment, family background, religiosity, attitudes toward contraception and sterilization, birth control pill use and other methods of contraception, fecundity, family size, fertility expectations and intentions, abortion, and world population growth. Respondents were asked about their residence history, including what state they grew up in, whether they had lived with both of their parents at the age of 14, and whether they had spent any time living on a farm. Respondents were also asked a series of questions about their marital history. Specifically, they were asked about the duration of their current marriage, whether their current marriage was their first marriage, total number of times they had been married, how previous marriages ended, length of engagement, and whether their husband had children from a previous marriage. Respondents were asked what was the highest grade of school that they had completed, whether they had attended a co-ed college, and to give the same information about their husbands. Respondents were asked about their 1965 income, both individual and combined, their occupation, whether they had been employed since marriage, if and when they stopped working, and whether they were self-employed. They were also asked about their husband's recent employment status. With respect to family background, respondents were asked about their parents' and their husband's parents' nationalities, education, religious preferences, and total number children born alive to their mother and mother-in-law, respectively. In addition, respondents were asked about their, and their husband's, religious practices including their religious preferences, whether they had ever received any Catholic education, how religious-minded they perceived themselves to be, how often they prayed at home, and how often they went to see a minister, rabbi, or priest. Respondents were asked to give their opinions with respect to contraception and sterilization. They were asked whether they approved or disapproved of contraception in general, as well as specific forms of contraception, whether information about birth control should be available to married and unmarried couples, and whether the federal government should support birth control programs in the United States and in other countries. They were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of sterilization operations for men and women and whether they thought such a surgery would impair a man's sexual ability. Respondents were asked about their own knowledge and use of birth control pills. They were asked if they had ever used birth control pills and when they first began using them. They were then asked to give a detailed account of their use of birth control pills between 1960 and 1965. Respondents were also asked to explain when they discontinued use of birth control pills and what the motivation was for doing so. Respondents were also asked about their reproductive cycle, the most fertile days in their cycle, the regularity of their cycle, and whether there were any known reasons why they could not have or would have problems having children. Respondents were asked about their ideal number of children, whether they had their ideal number of children or if they really wanted fewer children, as well as whether their husbands wanted more or less children than they did. Respondents were then asked how many additional births they expected, how many total births they expected, when they expected their next child, and at what age they expected to have their last child. Respondents were asked how they felt about interrupting a pregnancy and whether they approved of abortion given different circumstances such as if the pregnancy endangered the woman's health, if the woman was not married, if the couple could not afford another child, if the couple did not want another child, if the woman thought the child would be deformed, or if the woman had been raped. Respondents were also asked to share their opinions with respect to world population growth. T
Facebook
Twitter
As per our latest research, the global wildlife contraception market size in 2024 stands at USD 98.2 million, driven by increasing concerns over ecological balance and human-wildlife conflict mitigation. The market is growing at a robust CAGR of 7.4% and is expected to reach USD 186.5 million by 2033. This growth is primarily fueled by the rising need for humane population control solutions, advancements in contraceptive technologies, and expanding implementation across both developed and emerging regions. Furthermore, the market’s expansion is supported by the growing involvement of government agencies, conservation groups, and research institutions dedicated to sustainable wildlife management practices.
One of the key growth factors propelling the wildlife contraception market is the increasing global emphasis on biodiversity conservation and sustainable ecosystem management. As human populations expand and encroach upon natural habitats, conflicts between people and wildlife have intensified, leading to significant ecological and economic consequences. Traditional population control methods, such as culling, have faced criticism for ethical and ecological reasons, prompting a shift toward non-lethal and more sustainable alternatives. Wildlife contraception offers a humane, effective solution to manage animal populations, reduce human-wildlife conflicts, and maintain ecological balance. This paradigm shift is being embraced by wildlife agencies, conservation organizations, and even local governments, all of which are investing in research and deployment of advanced contraceptive methods.
Another major driver of market growth is the rapid advancement in contraceptive technologies tailored for wildlife applications. Innovations such as immunocontraceptives, long-acting hormonal contraceptives, and minimally invasive surgical sterilization techniques have significantly improved the efficacy, safety, and practicality of wildlife contraception. These advancements enable more targeted, species-specific, and long-lasting population control, reducing the need for frequent interventions and minimizing stress on animals. Furthermore, the development of remote delivery systems, such as darting, has made it feasible to implement contraception programs in challenging environments, further enhancing adoption rates across diverse geographic regions and animal populations.
The market is also benefitting from the increasing role of public-private partnerships and international collaborations in wildlife management. Government agencies, conservation groups, and research institutes are pooling resources and expertise to develop and implement comprehensive contraception programs. Funding from global organizations and philanthropic foundations has accelerated research and pilot projects in both developed and developing regions. Additionally, rising public awareness and advocacy for humane wildlife management are influencing policy reforms and regulatory support, further facilitating market growth. The integration of contraception into broader wildlife management frameworks is creating new opportunities for market players, technology providers, and service organizations involved in the sector.
From a regional perspective, North America continues to dominate the wildlife contraception market, accounting for the largest share in 2024, followed by Europe and Asia Pacific. The United States and Canada have been at the forefront of adopting non-lethal population control measures, supported by proactive government policies and significant research investments. Europe is witnessing growing demand due to stringent animal welfare regulations and the presence of numerous conservation organizations. The Asia Pacific region, while currently smaller in market share, is poised for the fastest growth over the forecast period, driven by rapid urbanization, increasing human-wildlife interactions, and rising conservation efforts in countries like India, China, and Australia. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are also emerging as important markets, with growing awareness and pilot initiatives being launched to address region-specific wildlife management challenges.
Facebook
TwitterAttribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
Averages of Pre-intervention characteristics of China, SynthChina, and the comparator.
Facebook
TwitterAs of 2024, around ** percent of the global population was subject to cessation programs against tobacco. Increasing taxes on tobacco to over ** percent of its retail price is one of the most effective and cost-effective control methods in preventing tobacco usage. This statistic displays the percentage of the world's population that is covered by selected tobacco control policies as of 2024.
Facebook
Twitter1.A population's effective size (Ne) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However estimating Ne, and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the Ne to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure.
2.A sophisticated demographic method of estimating Ne/N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented.
3.Here we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate Ne/N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high c...
Facebook
Twitterhttps://spdx.org/licenses/CC0-1.0.htmlhttps://spdx.org/licenses/CC0-1.0.html
Effective wildlife population management requires an understanding of the abundance of the target species. In the UK, the increase in numbers and range of the non-native invasive grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis poses a substantial threat to the existence of the native red squirrel S. vulgaris, to tree health, and to the forestry industry. Reducing the number of grey squirrels is crucial to mitigate their impacts. Camera traps are increasingly used to estimate animal abundance, and methods have been developed that do not require the identification of individual animals. Most of these methods have been focussed on medium to large mammal species with large range sizes and may be unsuitable for measuring local abundances of smaller mammals that have variable detection rates and hard-to-measure movement behaviour. The aim of this study was to develop a practical and cost-effective method, based on a camera trap index, that could be used by practitioners to estimate target densities of grey squirrels in woodlands to provide guidance on the numbers of traps or contraceptive feeders required for local grey squirrel control. Camera traps were deployed in ten independent woods of between 6 and 28 ha in size. An index, calculated from the number of grey squirrel photographs recorded per camera per day had a strong linear relationship (R2 = 0.90) with the densities of squirrels removed in trap and dispatch operations. From different time filters tested, a 5 minute filter was applied, where photographs of squirrels recorded on the same camera within 5 minutes of a previous photograph were not counted. There were no significant differences between the number of squirrel photographs per camera recorded by three different models of camera, increasing the method's practical application. This study demonstrated that a camera index could be used to inform the number of feeders or traps required for grey squirrel management through culling or contraception. Results could be obtained within six days without requiring expensive equipment or a high level of technical input. This method can easily be adapted to other rodent or small mammal species, making it widely applicable to other wildlife management interventions. Methods Study sites The study was conducted in 10 mature woods at the same time of year, between mid-June and mid-July, from 2018 to 2021 (Table 1). Woods were located in two regions of the UK; eight in Yorkshire, England (54°N, 0°W) and two in Denbighshire, Wales (53°N, -3°W). Woods were between 6 ha and 28 ha in area and consisted of either broadleaf or a mix of broadleaf and conifer trees. The area of each wood was measured from a satellite base map using a measure tool (Google My Maps 2018 to 2021). During the study, each wood was sampled once. To ensure independence, woods sampled within consecutive years were not directly connected to each other via wooded corridors or hedgerows and were located at least 600 metres apart. The first seven woods, sampled in 2018 and 2019, were discrete areas of woodland with little connectivity to other woodland areas. The last three woods sampled were highly connected to other woodland areas. Camera deployment At each wood, camera traps (Reconyx™ HC500 or HS2X) were deployed at a density of 1/ha. Camera placement in the field was guided by a 1-ha grid generated in ArcGIS (version 10.7.1) overlayed onto a satellite map using the ArcGIS Collector mobile phone application and was adjusted according to accessibility; for example, steep slopes or thick vegetation were avoided (Figure 1a). Cameras were fixed to trees at approximately 1 meter above the ground and with the lens angled between horizontal and 45° below horizontal (Figure 1 b). A laser pen or 1-meter wooden pole, placed parallel to the base of the camera, was used to position a pile of bait at the centre of the camera field of view, between 1 and 2 meters away from the camera lens. The bait pile consisted of approximately 1.5 kg of 50:50 whole maize and peanuts. The cameras were set to take one photograph per trigger and the passive infrared sensor to high sensitivity. Cameras were deployed for 3–6 days and the bait in front of each camera was checked every 1–3 days (guided by a prior assessment of potential bait uptake by non-target species) and replenished, if required. At the end of each deployment, the cameras were removed and all the photographs containing squirrels were digitally tagged using the Reconyx MapView Professional™ software. For the first five woods, photographs were also tagged with the number of squirrels present in each photograph. The resulting data were quality checked by a second observer re-analysing a sub-sample of the photographs to ensure there was no observer bias in the records. The final photographs taken by each camera in each wood were checked for the amount of bait remaining, as this is likely to affect squirrel activity and the numb Camera index design and selection Four camera indices were considered as candidates for estimating grey squirrel densities. All indices were based on the number of squirrel photographs per number of working cameras per trial day and were designed to be practical, cost-effective and representative of squirrel activity. Trial days consisted of consecutive 24 hours. The differences between indices concerned the time the first trial day began and which trial days were used for the photograph counts. Index 1 used all squirrel photographs recorded during consecutive 24 hours from the time the last camera was deployed in each wood. Index 2 used all squirrel photographs recorded during consecutive 24 hours, from 24 hours after the last camera was deployed; this was to allow the squirrels time to find the bait piles before the assessment began. Index 3 used all squirrel photographs recorded within consecutive 24 hours, from 24:00 on the day the cameras were deployed. Index 4 used all squirrel photographs from the 24 hours that recorded the maximum number of squirrel photographs from each consecutive 24 hours starting from when the last camera was deployed; this was to provide the maximum level of activity. For all four indices, time filters of 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 20 and 30 minutes were applied, where any photographs that were recorded within the specified interval after the previous photograph were excluded from the photograph counts. The application of a time filter was used to moderate inflated counts caused by individuals that remain in front of a camera for extended periods of time. This is especially applicable at bait piles, where some individuals may feed for longer than others. Linear regressions were used to test whether the values calculated for each index could be used to predict the density of squirrels trapped and removed in each wood. The coefficient of determination (R2) was calculated as a measure of fit and the statistical significance of the model with the greatest R2 was assessed using an F-test. Data normality was confirmed using a Jarque-Bera test and through plots of the residuals. To make the data processing methods more widely accessible to practitioners, all data analysis was conducted using Microsoft Excel®. Photograph data were not analysed, and the number of cameras adjusted accordingly for days when a camera ceased to work due to insufficient battery power or faults, when the bait had been completely removed, or when the camera was not focussed on any part of the bait pile, due to set up error or if it was subsequently knocked out of position by a person or an animal.
Facebook
Twitterhttps://spdx.org/licenses/CC0-1.0.htmlhttps://spdx.org/licenses/CC0-1.0.html
Facebook
TwitterAbundant deer populations often cause conflicts in suburban communities, but traditional population reduction methods, such as controlled hunting, can be challenging to implement in these contexts. Fertility control, specifically through ovariectomy, can limit reproduction and reduce populations in certain settings, yet its effects on movement behavior remain poorly understood. Concerns persist that hormonal changes affecting movement could lead to increased physiological demands and influence deer-vehicle collision (DVC) risks. We evaluated the effects of ovariectomy-induced anestrus on the seasonal movement behavior in female white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) using Internet of Things (IoT) biologging devices connected via a low-power wide-area network (LPWAN). From 17 January 2023 to 1 June 2024, we collected telemetry data from ovariectomized (treated) and untreated (control) female deer in South Euclid, Ohio, USA, and quantified seasonal movement patterns using 7-day home-r..., , # Data for: Monitoring the effects of ovariectomy on seasonal movement behavior in suburban female white-tailed deer using Internet of Things-enabled devices
The data and code found here were used for the analyses in:
DeNicola, V., Mezzini, S., Cagnacci, F. Monitoring the Effects of Ovariectomy on Seasonal Movement Behavior in Suburban Female White-Tailed Deer Using Internet of Things Enabled Devices. Wildlife Biology. https://doi.org/10.1002/wlb3.01512
The file DeNicola-2025-south-euclid-deer.zip contains:
data folder with the original (uncleaned) deer telemetry data (Odocoileus virginianus DeNicola South Euclid.csv), the telemetry metadata (Odocoileus virginianus DeNicola South Euclid-reference-data.csv), the cleaned telemetry data (cleaned-telemetry-data.rds), and the number of daily fixes for each deer (daily-fixes.rds).R code used for the analyses in...,
Facebook
TwitterEvery four years, the Wasatch Front’s two metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), Wasatch Front Regional Council (WFRC) and Mountainland Association of Governments (MAG), collaborate to update a set of annual small area -- traffic analysis zone and ‘city area’, see descriptions below) -- population and employment projections for the Salt Lake City-West Valley City (WFRC), Ogden-Layton (WFRC), and Provo-Orem (MAG) urbanized areas.
These projections are primarily developed for the purpose of informing long-range transportation infrastructure and services planning done as part of the 4 year Regional Transportation Plan update cycle, as well as Utah’s Unified Transportation Plan, 2023-2050. Accordingly, the foundation for these projections is largely data describing existing conditions for a 2019 base year, the first year of the latest RTP process. The projections are included in the official travel models, which are publicly released at the conclusion of the RTP process.
Projections within the Wasatch Front urban area ( SUBAREAID = 1) were produced with using the Real Estate Market Model as described below. Socioeconomic forecasts produced for Cache MPO (Cache County, SUBAREAID = 2), Dixie MPO (Washington County, SUBAREAID = 3), Summit County (SUBAREAID = 4), and UDOT (other areas of the state, SUBAREAID = 0) all adhere to the University of Utah Gardner Policy Institute's county-level projection controls, but other modeling methods are used to arrive at the TAZ-level forecasts for these areas.
As these projections may be a valuable input to other analyses, this dataset is made available here as a public service for informational purposes only. It is solely the responsibility of the end user to determine the appropriate use of this dataset for other purposes.
Wasatch Front Real Estate Market Model (REMM) Projections
WFRC and MAG have developed a spatial statistical model using the UrbanSim modeling platform to assist in producing these annual projections. This model is called the Real Estate Market Model, or REMM for short. REMM is used for the urban portion of Weber, Davis, Salt Lake, and Utah counties. REMM relies on extensive inputs to simulate future development activity across the greater urbanized region. Key inputs to REMM include:
Demographic data from the decennial census
County-level population and employment projections -- used as REMM control totals -- are produced by the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute (GPI) funded by the Utah State Legislature
Current employment locational patterns derived from the Utah Department of Workforce Services
Land use visioning exercises and feedback, especially in regard to planned urban and local center development, with city and county elected officials and staff
Current land use and valuation GIS-based parcel data stewarded by County Assessors
Traffic patterns and transit service from the regional Travel Demand Model that together form the landscape of regional accessibility to workplaces and other destinations
Calibration of model variables to balance the fit of current conditions and dynamics at the county and regional level
‘Traffic Analysis Zone’ Projections
The annual projections are forecasted for each of the Wasatch Front’s 3,546 Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) geographic units. TAZ boundaries are set along roads, streams, and other physical features and average about 600 acres (0.94 square miles). TAZ sizes vary, with some TAZs in the densest areas representing only a single city block (25 acres).
‘City Area’ Projections
The TAZ-level output from the model is also available for ‘city areas’ that sum the projections for the TAZ geographies that roughly align with each city’s current boundary. As TAZs do not align perfectly with current city boundaries, the ‘city area’ summaries are not projections specific to a current or future city boundary, but the ‘city area’ summaries may be suitable surrogates or starting points upon which to base city-specific projections.
Summary Variables in the Datasets
Annual projection counts are available for the following variables (please read Key Exclusions note below):
Demographics
Household Population Count (excludes persons living in group quarters)
Household Count (excludes group quarters)
Employment
Typical Job Count (includes job types that exhibit typical commuting and other travel/vehicle use patterns)
Retail Job Count (retail, food service, hotels, etc)
Office Job Count (office, health care, government, education, etc)
Industrial Job Count (manufacturing, wholesale, transport, etc)
Non-Typical Job Count* (includes agriculture, construction, mining, and home-based jobs) This can be calculated by subtracting Typical Job Count from All Employment Count
All Employment Count* (all jobs, this sums jobs from typical and non-typical sectors).
Key Exclusions from TAZ and ‘City Area’ Projections
As the primary purpose for the development of these population and employment projections is to model future travel in the region, REMM-based projections do not include population or households that reside in group quarters (prisons, senior centers, dormitories, etc), as residents of these facilities typically have a very low impact on regional travel. USTM-based projections also excludes group quarter populations. Group quarters population estimates are available at the county-level from GPI and at various sub-county geographies from the Census Bureau.
Statewide Projections
Population and employment projections for the Wasatch Front area can be combined with those developed by Dixie MPO (St. George area), Cache MPO (Logan area), and the Utah Department of Transportation (for the remainder of the state) into one database for use in the Utah Statewide Travel Model (USTM). While projections for the areas outside of the Wasatch Front use different forecasting methods, they contain the same summary-level population and employment projections making similar TAZ and ‘City Area’ data available statewide. WFRC plans, in the near future, to add additional areas to these projections datasets by including the projections from the USTM model.
Facebook
TwitterGoal 3Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all agesTarget 3.1: By 2030, reduce the global maternal mortality ratio to less than 70 per 100,000 live birthsIndicator 3.1.1: Maternal mortality ratioSH_STA_MORT: Maternal mortality ratioIndicator 3.1.2: Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnelSH_STA_BRTC: Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel (%)Target 3.2: By 2030, end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years of age, with all countries aiming to reduce neonatal mortality to at least as low as 12 per 1,000 live births and under-5 mortality to at least as low as 25 per 1,000 live birthsIndicator 3.2.1: Under-5 mortality rateSH_DYN_IMRTN: Infant deaths (number)SH_DYN_MORT: Under-five mortality rate, by sex (deaths per 1,000 live births)SH_DYN_IMRT: Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)SH_DYN_MORTN: Under-five deaths (number)Indicator 3.2.2: Neonatal mortality rateSH_DYN_NMRTN: Neonatal deaths (number)SH_DYN_NMRT: Neonatal mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)Target 3.3: By 2030, end the epidemics of AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and neglected tropical diseases and combat hepatitis, water-borne diseases and other communicable diseasesIndicator 3.3.1: Number of new HIV infections per 1,000 uninfected population, by sex, age and key populationsSH_HIV_INCD: Number of new HIV infections per 1,000 uninfected population, by sex and age (per 1,000 uninfected population)Indicator 3.3.2: Tuberculosis incidence per 100,000 populationSH_TBS_INCD: Tuberculosis incidence (per 100,000 population)Indicator 3.3.3: Malaria incidence per 1,000 populationSH_STA_MALR: Malaria incidence per 1,000 population at risk (per 1,000 population)Indicator 3.3.4: Hepatitis B incidence per 100,000 populationSH_HAP_HBSAG: Prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) (%)Indicator 3.3.5: Number of people requiring interventions against neglected tropical diseasesSH_TRP_INTVN: Number of people requiring interventions against neglected tropical diseases (number)Target 3.4: By 2030, reduce by one third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-beingIndicator 3.4.1: Mortality rate attributed to cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes or chronic respiratory diseaseSH_DTH_NCOM: Mortality rate attributed to cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes or chronic respiratory disease (probability)SH_DTH_NCD: Number of deaths attributed to non-communicable diseases, by type of disease and sex (number)Indicator 3.4.2: Suicide mortality rateSH_STA_SCIDE: Suicide mortality rate, by sex (deaths per 100,000 population)SH_STA_SCIDEN: Number of deaths attributed to suicide, by sex (number)Target 3.5: Strengthen the prevention and treatment of substance abuse, including narcotic drug abuse and harmful use of alcoholIndicator 3.5.1: Coverage of treatment interventions (pharmacological, psychosocial and rehabilitation and aftercare services) for substance use disordersSH_SUD_ALCOL: Alcohol use disorders, 12-month prevalence (%)SH_SUD_TREAT: Coverage of treatment interventions (pharmacological, psychosocial and rehabilitation and aftercare services) for substance use disorders (%)Indicator 3.5.2: Alcohol per capita consumption (aged 15 years and older) within a calendar year in litres of pure alcoholSH_ALC_CONSPT: Alcohol consumption per capita (aged 15 years and older) within a calendar year (litres of pure alcohol)Target 3.6: By 2020, halve the number of global deaths and injuries from road traffic accidentsIndicator 3.6.1: Death rate due to road traffic injuriesSH_STA_TRAF: Death rate due to road traffic injuries, by sex (per 100,000 population)Target 3.7: By 2030, ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive health-care services, including for family planning, information and education, and the integration of reproductive health into national strategies and programmesIndicator 3.7.1: Proportion of women of reproductive age (aged 15–49 years) who have their need for family planning satisfied with modern methodsSH_FPL_MTMM: Proportion of women of reproductive age (aged 15-49 years) who have their need for family planning satisfied with modern methods (% of women aged 15-49 years)Indicator 3.7.2: Adolescent birth rate (aged 10–14 years; aged 15–19 years) per 1,000 women in that age groupSP_DYN_ADKL: Adolescent birth rate (per 1,000 women aged 15-19 years)Target 3.8: Achieve universal health coverage, including financial risk protection, access to quality essential health-care services and access to safe, effective, quality and affordable essential medicines and vaccines for allIndicator 3.8.1: Coverage of essential health servicesSH_ACS_UNHC: Universal health coverage (UHC) service coverage indexIndicator 3.8.2: Proportion of population with large household expenditures on health as a share of total household expenditure or incomeSH_XPD_EARN25: Proportion of population with large household expenditures on health (greater than 25%) as a share of total household expenditure or income (%)SH_XPD_EARN10: Proportion of population with large household expenditures on health (greater than 10%) as a share of total household expenditure or income (%)Target 3.9: By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contaminationIndicator 3.9.1: Mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollutionSH_HAP_ASMORT: Age-standardized mortality rate attributed to household air pollution (deaths per 100,000 population)SH_STA_AIRP: Crude death rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (deaths per 100,000 population)SH_STA_ASAIRP: Age-standardized mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution (deaths per 100,000 population)SH_AAP_MORT: Crude death rate attributed to ambient air pollution (deaths per 100,000 population)SH_AAP_ASMORT: Age-standardized mortality rate attributed to ambient air pollution (deaths per 100,000 population)SH_HAP_MORT: Crude death rate attributed to household air pollution (deaths per 100,000 population)Indicator 3.9.2: Mortality rate attributed to unsafe water, unsafe sanitation and lack of hygiene (exposure to unsafe Water, Sanitation and Hygiene for All (WASH) services)SH_STA_WASH: Mortality rate attributed to unsafe water, unsafe sanitation and lack of hygiene (deaths per 100,000 population)Indicator 3.9.3: Mortality rate attributed to unintentional poisoningSH_STA_POISN: Mortality rate attributed to unintentional poisonings, by sex (deaths per 100,000 population)Target 3.a: Strengthen the implementation of the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in all countries, as appropriateIndicator 3.a.1: Age-standardized prevalence of current tobacco use among persons aged 15 years and olderSH_PRV_SMOK: Age-standardized prevalence of current tobacco use among persons aged 15 years and older, by sex (%)Target 3.b: Support the research and development of vaccines and medicines for the communicable and non-communicable diseases that primarily affect developing countries, provide access to affordable essential medicines and vaccines, in accordance with the Doha Declaration on the TRIPS Agreement and Public Health, which affirms the right of developing countries to use to the full the provisions in the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights regarding flexibilities to protect public health, and, in particular, provide access to medicines for allIndicator 3.b.1: Proportion of the target population covered by all vaccines included in their national programmeSH_ACS_DTP3: Proportion of the target population with access to 3 doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3) (%)SH_ACS_MCV2: Proportion of the target population with access to measles-containing-vaccine second-dose (MCV2) (%)SH_ACS_PCV3: Proportion of the target population with access to pneumococcal conjugate 3rd dose (PCV3) (%)SH_ACS_HPV: Proportion of the target population with access to affordable medicines and vaccines on a sustainable basis, human papillomavirus (HPV) (%)Indicator 3.b.2: Total net official development assistance to medical research and basic health sectorsDC_TOF_HLTHNT: Total official development assistance to medical research and basic heath sectors, net disbursement, by recipient countries (millions of constant 2018 United States dollars)DC_TOF_HLTHL: Total official development assistance to medical research and basic heath sectors, gross disbursement, by recipient countries (millions of constant 2018 United States dollars)Indicator 3.b.3: Proportion of health facilities that have a core set of relevant essential medicines available and affordable on a sustainable basisSH_HLF_EMED: Proportion of health facilities that have a core set of relevant essential medicines available and affordable on a sustainable basis (%)Target 3.c: Substantially increase health financing and the recruitment, development, training and retention of the health workforce in developing countries, especially in least developed countries and small island developing StatesIndicator 3.c.1: Health worker density and distributionSH_MED_DEN: Health worker density, by type of occupation (per 10,000 population)SH_MED_HWRKDIS: Health worker distribution, by sex and type of occupation (%)Target 3.d: Strengthen the capacity of all countries, in particular developing countries, for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risksIndicator 3.d.1: International Health Regulations (IHR) capacity and health emergency preparednessSH_IHR_CAPS: International Health Regulations (IHR) capacity, by type of IHR capacity (%)Indicator 3.d.2: Percentage of bloodstream infections due to selected antimicrobial-resistant organismsiSH_BLD_MRSA: Percentage of bloodstream infection due to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) among patients seeking care and whose
Facebook
Twitter
According to our latest research, the global PZP Contraceptive Vaccines for Wild Horses market size reached USD 41.2 million in 2024. The market is experiencing a robust growth trajectory, registering a CAGR of 7.8% from 2025 to 2033, and is projected to reach USD 81.2 million by 2033. The primary growth factor driving this market is the increasing demand for humane and sustainable wild horse population control methods, as well as heightened awareness regarding wildlife management and biodiversity conservation.
The growth of the PZP Contraceptive Vaccines for Wild Horses market is fundamentally driven by the urgent need for ethical population management solutions in wild equine populations. Traditional methods such as roundups and culling have come under significant scrutiny due to their negative impact on animal welfare and public perception. In contrast, PZP (Porcine Zona Pellucida) contraceptive vaccines provide a non-lethal, reversible, and species-specific option for controlling wild horse numbers. This aligns with the evolving regulatory requirements and societal values that increasingly prioritize humane treatment of wildlife. As a result, wildlife agencies, animal welfare organizations, and government bodies are investing in PZP-based programs, creating a positive outlook for market expansion.
Another significant growth driver is the advancement in vaccine formulation and delivery mechanisms, which has enhanced the efficacy and longevity of PZP contraceptive effects. Innovations such as the PZP-22 formulation, which offers extended contraceptive coverage, reduce the frequency of booster doses and minimize the stress on wild horse populations during administration. Additionally, ongoing research and collaboration among academic institutions, biotechnology firms, and wildlife management agencies are leading to the development of next-generation vaccines with improved stability, safety, and ease of use. These technological advancements are not only increasing adoption rates but are also opening new avenues for the application of PZP vaccines in broader wildlife management contexts.
The growing global focus on biodiversity preservation and ecosystem balance further fuels the demand for PZP contraceptive vaccines. Unchecked wild horse populations can lead to overgrazing, soil erosion, and degradation of natural habitats, which threaten the survival of native plant and animal species. Governments and conservation groups are recognizing the ecological and economic benefits of maintaining sustainable wild horse populations through immunocontraceptive methods. This has resulted in increased funding, policy support, and public-private partnerships aimed at scaling up PZP vaccine deployment, particularly in regions experiencing acute wild horse overpopulation challenges.
From a regional perspective, North America remains the dominant market for PZP contraceptive vaccines, accounting for the largest share in 2024 due to the presence of extensive wild horse populations in the United States and Canada, as well as strong regulatory frameworks supporting humane wildlife management. Europe is also witnessing notable growth, propelled by rising awareness of animal welfare issues and the implementation of EU directives on biodiversity conservation. The Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa regions are emerging markets, where growing environmental consciousness and increasing collaboration with international wildlife organizations are expected to drive future adoption of PZP contraceptive vaccines.
The Product Type segment of the PZP Contraceptive Vaccines for Wild Horses market is primarily categorized into Native PZP, PZP-22, and Others. Native PZP, derived from porcine zona pellucida proteins, has historically been the most widely used formulation for wild horse population control. Its proven efficacy and established safety profile
Facebook
TwitterAttribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
Stabilizing the dynamics of complex, non-linear systems is a major concern across several scientific disciplines including ecology and conservation biology. Unfortunately, most methods proposed to reduce the fluctuations in chaotic systems are not applicable to real, biological populations. This is because such methods typically require detailed knowledge of system specific parameters and the ability to manipulate them in real time; conditions often not met by most real populations. Moreover, real populations are often noisy and extinction-prone, which can sometimes render such methods ineffective. Here, we investigate a control strategy, which works by perturbing the population size, and is robust to reasonable amounts of noise and extinction probability. This strategy, called the Adaptive Limiter Control (ALC), has been previously shown to increase constancy and persistence of laboratory populations and metapopulations of Drosophila melanogaster. Here, we present a detailed numerical investigation of the effects of ALC on the fluctuations and persistence of metapopulations. We show that at high migration rates, application of ALC does not require a priori information about the population growth rates. We also show that ALC can stabilize metapopulations even when applied to as low as one-tenth of the total number of subpopulations. Moreover, ALC is effective even when the subpopulations have high extinction rates: conditions under which another control algorithm had previously failed to attain stability. Importantly, ALC not only reduces the fluctuation in metapopulation sizes, but also the global extinction probability. Finally, the method is robust to moderate levels of noise in the dynamics and the carrying capacity of the environment. These results, coupled with our earlier empirical findings, establish ALC to be a strong candidate for stabilizing real biological metapopulations.
Facebook
TwitterU.S. Government Workshttps://www.usa.gov/government-works
License information was derived automatically
Life Table Data: Field-based, partial life table data for immature stages of Bemisia tabaci on cotton in Maricopa, Arizona, USA. Data were generated on approximately 200 individual insects per cohort with 2-5 cohorts per year for a total of 44 cohorts between 1997 and 2010. Data provide the marginal, stage-specific rates of mortality for eggs, and 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th instar nymphs. Mortality is characterized as caused by inviability (eggs only), dislodgement, predation, parasitism and unknown. Detailed methods can be found in Naranjo and Ellsworth 2005 (Entomologia Experimentalis et Applicata 116(2): 93-108). The method takes advantage of the sessile nature of immature stages of this insect. Briefly, an observer follows individual eggs or settled first instar nymphs from natural populations on the underside of cotton leaves in the field with a hand lens and determines causes of death for each individual over time. Approximately 200 individual eggs and nymphs are observed for each cohort. Separately, densities of eggs and nymphs are monitored with standard methods (Naranjo and Flint 1994, Environmental Entomology 23: 254-266; Naranjo and Flint 1995, Environmental Entomology 24: 261-270) on a weekly basis.
Matrix Model Data: Life table data were used to provide parameters for population matrix models. Matrix models contain information about stage-specific rates for development, survival and reproduction. The model can be used to estimate overall population growth rate and can also be analyzed to determine which life stages contribute the most to changes in growth rates. Resources in this dataset:Resource Title: Matrix model data from Naranjo, S.E. (2017) Retrospective analysis of a classical biological control program. Journal of Applied Ecology. File Name: MatrixModelData.xlsxResource Description: Life table data were used to provide parameters for population matrix models. Matrix models contain information about stage-specific rates for development, survival and reproduction. The model can be used to estimate overall population growth rate and can also be analyzed to determine which life stages contribute the most to changes in growth rates. Resource Title: Data Dictionary: Life table data. File Name: DataDictionary_LifeTableData.csvResource Title: Life table data from Naranjo, S.E. (2017) Retrospective analysis of a classical biological control program. Journal of Applied Ecology. File Name: LifeTableData.xlsxResource Description: Field-based, partial life table data for immature stages of Bemisia tabaci on cotton in Maricopa, Arizona, USA. Data were generated on approximately 200 individual insects per cohort with 2-5 cohorts per years for a total of 44 cohorts between 1997 and 2010. Data provide the marginal, stage-specific rates of mortality for eggs, and 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th instar nymphs. Mortality is characterized as caused by inviability (eggs only), dislodgement, predation, parasitism and unknown. Detailed methods can be found in Naranjo and Ellsworth 2005 (Entomologia, Experimentalis et Applicata 116: 93-108). The method takes advantage of the sessile nature of immature stages of this insect. Briefly, an observer follows individual eggs or settled first instar nymphs from natural populations on the underside of cotton leaves in the field with a hand lens and determines causes of death for each individual over time. Approximately 200 individual eggs and nymphs are observed for each cohort. Separately, densities of eggs and nymphs are monitored with standard methods (Naranjo and Flint 1994, Environmental Entomology 23: 254-266; Naranjo and Flint 1995, Environmental Entomology 24: 261-270) on a weekly basis. Resource Title: Life table data from Naranjo, S.E. (2017) Retrospective analysis of a classical biological control program. Journal of Applied Ecology. File Name: LifeTableData.csvResource Description: CSV version of the data. Field-based, partial life table data for immature stages of Bemisia tabaci on cotton in Maricopa, Arizona, USA. Data were generated on approximately 200 individual insects per cohort with 2-5 cohorts per years for a total of 44 cohorts between 1997 and 2010. Data provide the marginal, stage-specific rates of mortality for eggs, and 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th instar nymphs. Mortality is characterized as caused by inviability (eggs only), dislodgement, predation, parasitism and unknown. Detailed methods can be found in Naranjo and Ellsworth 2005 (Entomologia, Experimentalis et Applicata 116: 93-108). The method takes advantage of the sessile nature of immature stages of this insect. Briefly, an observer follows individual eggs or settled first instar nymphs from natural populations on the underside of cotton leaves in the field with a hand lens and determines causes of death for each individual over time. Approximately 200 individual eggs and nymphs are observed for each cohort. Separately, densities of eggs and nymphs are monitored with standard methods (Naranjo and Flint 1994, Environmental Entomology 23: 254-266; Naranjo and Flint 1995, Environmental Entomology 24: 261-270) on a weekly basis.
Facebook
TwitterOpen Government Licence 2.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/2/
License information was derived automatically
Long term population projections by sex and single year of age for York Local Authority area. These unrounded estimates are published based on ONS estimates designed to enable and encourage further calculations and analysis. However, the estimates should not be taken to be accurate to the level of detail provided. More information on the accuracy of the estimates is available in the Quality and Methodology document The estimates are produced using a variety of data sources and statistical models, including some statistical disclosure control methods, and small estimates should not be taken to refer to particular individuals. The estimated resident population of an area includes all those people who usually live there, regardless of nationality. Arriving international migrants are included in the usually resident population if they remain in the UK for at least a year. Emigrants are excluded if they remain outside the UK for at least a year. This is consistent with the United Nations definition of a long-term migrant. Armed forces stationed outside of the UK are excluded. Students are taken to be usually resident at their term time address. The population estimates reflect boundaries in place as of the reference year. Please note that “age” 999 comprises data for ages 90 and above. Source and Licence: Adapted from data from the Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.1.0.
Facebook
Twitter
According to our latest research, the global Healthcare Provider Population Health Management Software market size reached USD 15.2 billion in 2024. The market is projected to expand at a robust CAGR of 13.8% from 2025 to 2033, reaching approximately USD 47.2 billion by 2033. This impressive growth is primarily driven by the rising demand for value-based care, increasing healthcare data volumes, and the critical need for efficient patient management across diverse healthcare settings. The ongoing digital transformation in healthcare, coupled with regulatory mandates for data interoperability and quality reporting, continues to accelerate the adoption of advanced population health management solutions among providers worldwide.
One of the most significant growth factors propelling the Healthcare Provider Population Health Management Software market is the global shift from fee-for-service to value-based care models. Healthcare systems and providers are under increasing pressure to improve patient outcomes while controlling costs, necessitating robust tools for data aggregation, risk stratification, and care coordination. Population health management (PHM) software enables providers to analyze large datasets, identify at-risk populations, and proactively manage chronic diseases. The integration of electronic health records (EHRs), claims data, and social determinants of health into PHM platforms allows for a more holistic approach to patient care, driving better clinical and financial outcomes. Additionally, government initiatives and reforms, such as the Affordable Care Act in the United States and similar policies in Europe and Asia Pacific, are further incentivizing the adoption of PHM solutions by linking reimbursement to quality metrics and patient satisfaction.
Another critical driver is the rapid advancement of healthcare IT infrastructure and the proliferation of digital health technologies. The increasing adoption of cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning in healthcare is transforming the way providers manage patient populations. Modern PHM software platforms leverage these technologies to deliver predictive analytics, automate care management workflows, and facilitate real-time decision support. This technological evolution enables healthcare organizations to efficiently aggregate and analyze disparate data sources, streamline patient engagement, and optimize resource allocation. The growing emphasis on interoperability and data exchange standards, such as HL7 FHIR, is also fostering a more connected and integrated healthcare ecosystem, further enhancing the value proposition of PHM software.
Population Health Management is increasingly becoming a cornerstone in the healthcare industry, as it focuses on improving the health outcomes of entire populations. This approach involves the systematic collection and analysis of health-related data to identify patterns and trends that can inform healthcare strategies. By leveraging Population Health Management, providers can better understand the needs of their patient populations, tailor interventions to specific groups, and ultimately enhance the quality of care delivered. As healthcare systems worldwide continue to shift towards value-based care, the role of Population Health Management in driving efficiency and effectiveness in healthcare delivery is more critical than ever. This paradigm shift is not only improving patient outcomes but also helping to control rising healthcare costs by promoting preventive care and reducing unnecessary hospitalizations.
The COVID-19 pandemic has also played a pivotal role in accelerating the adoption of population health management solutions. The need for remote patient monitoring, telehealth, and coordinated care during the pandemic highlighted the importance of robust PHM platforms. Providers leveraged these tools to track disease outbreaks, manage high-risk patient cohorts, and allocate resources more effectively. As healthcare systems continue to adapt to the post-pandemic landscape, the focus on preventive care, chronic disease management, and population-level analytics is expected to remain strong, sustaining the long-term growth trajectory of the market. Furthermore, the increasing prevalence of chronic diseases, aging populations, and rising healthcare expenditures
Facebook
TwitterAttribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
There is great debate surrounding the demographic impact of China’s population control policies, especially the one-birth restrictions, which ended only recently. We apply an objective, data-driven method to construct the total fertility rates and population size of a ‘synthetic China’, which is assumed to be not subjected to the two major population control policies implemented in the 1970s. We find that while the earlier, less restrictive ‘later-longer-fewer’ policy introduced in 1973 played a critical role in driving down the fertility rate, the role of the ‘one-child policy’ introduced in 1979 and its descendants was much less significant. According to our model, had China continued with the less restrictive policies that were implemented in 1973 and followed a standard development trajectory, the path of fertility transition and total population growth would have been statistically very similar to the pattern observed over the past three decades.