As of 2020, Tripoli was the most populated district in Libya, accounting for ***** percent of the total population. Moreover, the areas of Benghazi and Misratah followed with a share of ***** and **** percent, respectively. The Libyan population has increased in recent years and registered an annual growth rate of **** percent in 2019.

According to the forecast, the population of Libya would exceed 8.5 million by 2050. In 2020, the country had around 6.9 million inhabitants, with Tripoli and Benghazi as the most populous districts. Despite the forecast increment in the number of inhabitants, the annual growth rate of the population is expected to decrease in the coming years.

Benghazi. name, type, Area, capital city, Country, continent, population

BackgroundMental disorders are likely to be elevated in the Libyan population during the post-conflict period. We estimated cases of severe PTSD and depression and related health service requirements using modelling from existing epidemiological data and current recommended mental health service targets in low and middle income countries (LMIC’s). MethodsPost-conflict prevalence estimates were derived from models based on a previously conducted systematic review and meta-regression analysis of mental health among populations living in conflict. Political terror ratings and intensity of exposure to traumatic events were used in predictive models. Prevalence of severe cases was applied to chosen populations along with uncertainty ranges. Six populations deemed to be affected by the conflict were chosen for modelling: Misrata (population of 444,812), Benghazi (pop. 674,094), Zintan (pop. 40,000), displaced people within Tripoli/Zlitan (pop. 49,000), displaced people within Misrata (pop. 25,000) and Ras Jdir camps (pop. 3,700). Proposed targets for service coverage, resource utilisation and full-time equivalent staffing for management of severe cases of major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are based on a published model for LMIC’s. FindingsSevere PTSD prevalence in populations exposed to a high level of political terror and traumatic events was estimated at 12.4% (95%CI 8.5–16.7) and was 19.8% (95%CI 14.0–26.3) for severe depression. Across all six populations (total population 1,236,600), the conflict could be associated with 123,200 (71,600–182,400) cases of severe PTSD and 228,100 (134,000–344,200) cases of severe depression; 50% of PTSD cases were estimated to co-occur with severe depression. Based upon service coverage targets, approximately 154 full-time equivalent staff would be required to respond to these cases sufficiently which is substantially below the current level of resource estimates for these regions. DiscussionThis is the first attempt to predict the mental health burden and consequent service response needs of such a conflict, and is crucially timed for Libya.