The region of present-day China has historically been the most populous region in the world; however, its population development has fluctuated throughout history. In 2022, China was overtaken as the most populous country in the world, and current projections suggest its population is heading for a rapid decline in the coming decades. Transitions of power lead to mortality The source suggests that conflict, and the diseases brought with it, were the major obstacles to population growth throughout most of the Common Era, particularly during transitions of power between various dynasties and rulers. It estimates that the total population fell by approximately 30 million people during the 14th century due to the impact of Mongol invasions, which inflicted heavy losses on the northern population through conflict, enslavement, food instability, and the introduction of bubonic plague. Between 1850 and 1870, the total population fell once more, by more than 50 million people, through further conflict, famine and disease; the most notable of these was the Taiping Rebellion, although the Miao an Panthay Rebellions, and the Dungan Revolt, also had large death tolls. The third plague pandemic also originated in Yunnan in 1855, which killed approximately two million people in China. 20th and 21st centuries There were additional conflicts at the turn of the 20th century, which had significant geopolitical consequences for China, but did not result in the same high levels of mortality seen previously. It was not until the overlapping Chinese Civil War (1927-1949) and Second World War (1937-1945) where the death tolls reached approximately 10 and 20 million respectively. Additionally, as China attempted to industrialize during the Great Leap Forward (1958-1962), economic and agricultural mismanagement resulted in the deaths of tens of millions (possibly as many as 55 million) in less than four years, during the Great Chinese Famine. This mortality is not observable on the given dataset, due to the rapidity of China's demographic transition over the entire period; this saw improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and infrastructure result in sweeping changes across the population. The early 2020s marked some significant milestones in China's demographics, where it was overtaken by India as the world's most populous country, and its population also went into decline. Current projections suggest that China is heading for a "demographic disaster", as its rapidly aging population is placing significant burdens on China's economy, government, and society. In stark contrast to the restrictive "one-child policy" of the past, the government has introduced a series of pro-fertility incentives for couples to have larger families, although the impact of these policies are yet to materialize. If these current projections come true, then China's population may be around half its current size by the end of the century.

According to latest figures, the Chinese population decreased by 1.39 million to around 1.408 billion people in 2024. After decades of rapid growth, China arrived at the turning point of its demographic development in 2022, which was earlier than expected. The annual population decrease is estimated to remain at moderate levels until around 2030 but to accelerate thereafter. Population development in China China had for a long time been the country with the largest population worldwide, but according to UN estimates, it has been overtaken by India in 2023. As the population in India is still growing, the country is very likely to remain being home of the largest population on earth in the near future. Due to several mechanisms put into place by the Chinese government as well as changing circumstances in the working and social environment of the Chinese people, population growth has subsided over the past decades, displaying an annual population growth rate of -0.1 percent in 2024. Nevertheless, compared to the world population in total, China held a share of about 17 percent of the overall global population in 2024. China's aging population In terms of demographic developments, the birth control efforts of the Chinese government had considerable effects on the demographic pyramid in China. Upon closer examination of the age distribution, a clear trend of an aging population becomes visible. In order to curb the negative effects of an aging population, the Chinese government abolished the one-child policy in 2015, which had been in effect since 1979, and introduced a three-child policy in May 2021. However, many Chinese parents nowadays are reluctant to have a second or third child, as is the case in most of the developed countries in the world. The number of births in China varied in the years following the abolishment of the one-child policy, but did not increase considerably. Among the reasons most prominent for parents not having more children are the rising living costs and costs for child care, growing work pressure, a growing trend towards self-realization and individualism, and changing social behaviors.

In 1800, the population of Japan was just over 30 million, a figure which would grow by just two million in the first half of the 19th century. However, with the fall of the Tokugawa shogunate and the restoration of the emperor in the Meiji Restoration of 1868, Japan would begin transforming from an isolated feudal island, to a modernized empire built on Western models. The Meiji period would see a rapid rise in the population of Japan, as industrialization and advancements in healthcare lead to a significant reduction in child mortality rates, while the creation overseas colonies would lead to a strong economic boom. However, this growth would slow beginning in 1937, as Japan entered a prolonged war with the Republic of China, which later grew into a major theater of the Second World War. The war was eventually brought to Japan's home front, with the escalation of Allied air raids on Japanese urban centers from 1944 onwards (Tokyo was the most-bombed city of the Second World War). By the war's end in 1945 and the subsequent occupation of the island by the Allied military, Japan had suffered over two and a half million military fatalities, and over one million civilian deaths.

The population figures of Japan were quick to recover, as the post-war “economic miracle” would see an unprecedented expansion of the Japanese economy, and would lead to the country becoming one of the first fully industrialized nations in East Asia. As living standards rose, the population of Japan would increase from 77 million in 1945, to over 127 million by the end of the century. However, growth would begin to slow in the late 1980s, as birth rates and migration rates fell, and Japan eventually grew to have one of the oldest populations in the world. The population would peak in 2008 at just over 128 million, but has consistently fallen each year since then, as the fertility rate of the country remains below replacement level (despite government initiatives to counter this) and the country's immigrant population remains relatively stable. The population of Japan is expected to continue its decline in the coming years, and in 2020, it is estimated that approximately 126 million people inhabit the island country.

In 1800, the population of the territory that makes up present-day Thailand was approximately 4.7 million people. As part of the kingdom of Siam, the population of Thailand would grow gradually through the 19 th century, with much of the population growth being driven by Chinese emigration from southern Qing China into Siam, in search of work and refuge from instability in their home country. This migrant influx would continue throughout the century, with estimates suggesting that the Chinese population in Siam grew from 230,000 in 1825, to over 792,000 in 1910; by 1932, over 12 percent of the population in modern-day Thailand was ethnically Chinese. Migration from China would see another surge under the reign of Vajiravudh, as the "Warlord era" in China, after the fall of the Qing dynasty, would see entire families of Chinese immigrants arriving in Thailand. While immigration would slow in later years, Chinese-Thai would remain a significant demographic in Thailand’s population, both as one of the largest overseas Chinese populations, and accounting for an estimated 11-14 percent of the total Thailand population in 2012.

Population growth would slow somewhat in the 1930s, as several rebellions and coups, paired with a rise in anti-Chinese sentiment in the country, would result in a sharp decline in immigration to the country. In the years following the Second World War, the population of Thailand would begin to grow rapidly, following a wave of urbanization and a significant increase in standard of living throughout the country. As a result, the population of Thailand would rise from approximately 20 million in 1950, to just under 63 million by the turn of the century just 50 years later. This population growth would slow somewhat as the country would continue to modernize in the 2000s, and in 2020, it is estimated that just under 70 million people live in Thailand.

In the past four centuries, the population of the United States has grown from a recorded 350 people around the Jamestown colony of Virginia in 1610, to an estimated 331 million people in 2020. The pre-colonization populations of the indigenous peoples of the Americas have proven difficult for historians to estimate, as their numbers decreased rapidly following the introduction of European diseases (namely smallpox, plague and influenza). Native Americans were also omitted from most censuses conducted before the twentieth century, therefore the actual population of what we now know as the United States would have been much higher than the official census data from before 1800, but it is unclear by how much. Population growth in the colonies throughout the eighteenth century has primarily been attributed to migration from the British Isles and the Transatlantic slave trade; however it is also difficult to assert the ethnic-makeup of the population in these years as accurate migration records were not kept until after the 1820s, at which point the importation of slaves had also been illegalized. Nineteenth century In the year 1800, it is estimated that the population across the present-day United States was around six million people, with the population in the 16 admitted states numbering at 5.3 million. Migration to the United States began to happen on a large scale in the mid-nineteenth century, with the first major waves coming from Ireland, Britain and Germany. In some aspects, this wave of mass migration balanced out the demographic impacts of the American Civil War, which was the deadliest war in U.S. history with approximately 620 thousand fatalities between 1861 and 1865. The civil war also resulted in the emancipation of around four million slaves across the south; many of whose ancestors would take part in the Great Northern Migration in the early 1900s, which saw around six million black Americans migrate away from the south in one of the largest demographic shifts in U.S. history. By the end of the nineteenth century, improvements in transport technology and increasing economic opportunities saw migration to the United States increase further, particularly from southern and Eastern Europe, and in the first decade of the 1900s the number of migrants to the U.S. exceeded one million people in some years. Twentieth and twenty-first century The U.S. population has grown steadily throughout the past 120 years, reaching one hundred million in the 1910s, two hundred million in the 1960s, and three hundred million in 2007. In the past century, the U.S. established itself as a global superpower, with the world's largest economy (by nominal GDP) and most powerful military. Involvement in foreign wars has resulted in over 620,000 further U.S. fatalities since the Civil War, and migration fell drastically during the World Wars and Great Depression; however the population continuously grew in these years as the total fertility rate remained above two births per woman, and life expectancy increased (except during the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918).

Since the Second World War, Latin America has replaced Europe as the most common point of origin for migrants, with Hispanic populations growing rapidly across the south and border states. Because of this, the proportion of non-Hispanic whites, which has been the most dominant ethnicity in the U.S. since records began, has dropped more rapidly in recent decades. Ethnic minorities also have a much higher birth rate than non-Hispanic whites, further contributing to this decline, and the share of non-Hispanic whites is expected to fall below fifty percent of the U.S. population by the mid-2000s. In 2020, the United States has the third-largest population in the world (after China and India), and the population is expected to reach four hundred million in the 2050s.

The fertility rate of a country is the average number of children that women from that country will have throughout their reproductive years. In 1930, China's fertility rate was 5.5 children per woman, and this number then dropped to just under five over the next fifteen years, as China experienced a civil war and the Second World War. The fertility rate rose rather quickly after this to over 6.1 in 1955, before dropping again in the late 1950s, as Chairman Mao's 'Great Leap Forward' failed to industrialize the nation, and resulted in widespread famine that killed an estimated 45 million people. In the decade following this, China's fertility rate reached it's highest level in 1970, before the implementation of the two-child policy in the 1970s, and the one-child policy** in the 1980s, which radically changed the population structure. The fertility rate fell to an all time low in the early 2000s, where it was just 1.6 children per woman. However this number has increased to 1.7 today, and the two-child policy was reintroduced in 2016, replacing the one-child policy that had been effective for over 36 years.

In 1800, the population of the region of present-day India was approximately 169 million. The population would grow gradually throughout the 19th century, rising to over 240 million by 1900. Population growth would begin to increase in the 1920s, as a result of falling mortality rates, due to improvements in health, sanitation and infrastructure. However, the population of India would see it’s largest rate of growth in the years following the country’s independence from the British Empire in 1948, where the population would rise from 358 million to over one billion by the turn of the century, making India the second country to pass the billion person milestone. While the rate of growth has slowed somewhat as India begins a demographics shift, the country’s population has continued to grow dramatically throughout the 21st century, and in 2020, India is estimated to have a population of just under 1.4 billion, well over a billion more people than one century previously. Today, approximately 18% of the Earth’s population lives in India, and it is estimated that India will overtake China to become the most populous country in the world within the next five years.

Until the 1800s, population growth was incredibly slow on a global level. The global population was estimated to have been around 188 million people in the year 1CE, and did not reach one billion until around 1803. However, since the 1800s, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition has seen population growth skyrocket, reaching eight billion people in 2023, and this is expected to peak at over 10 billion in the 2080s.

The earliest point where scientists can make reasonable estimates for the population of global regions is around 10,000 years before the Common Era (or 12,000 years ago). Estimates suggest that Asia has consistently been the most populated continent, and the least populated continent has generally been Oceania (although it was more heavily populated than areas such as North America in very early years). Population growth was very slow, but an increase can be observed between most of the given time periods. There were, however, dips in population due to pandemics, the most notable of these being the impact of plague in Eurasia in the 14th century, and the impact of European contact with the indigenous populations of the Americas after 1492, where it took almost four centuries for the population of Latin America to return to its pre-1500 level. The world's population first reached one billion people in 1803, which also coincided with a spike in population growth, due to the onset of the demographic transition. This wave of growth first spread across the most industrially developed countries in the 19th century, and the correlation between demographic development and industrial or economic maturity continued until today, with Africa being the final major region to begin its transition in the late-1900s.

For most of the past two centuries, falling birth rates have been associated with societal progress. During the demographic transition, where pre-industrial societies modernize in terms of fertility and mortality, falling death rates, especially among infants and children, are the first major change. In response, as more children survive into adulthood, women have fewer children as the need to compensate for child mortality declines. This transition has happened at different times across the world and is an ongoing process, with early industrial countries being the first to transition, and Sub-Saharan African countries being the most recent to do so. Additionally, some Asian countries (particularly China through government policy) have gone through their demographic transitions at a much faster pace than those deemed more developed. Today, in countries such as Japan, Italy, and Germany, birth rates have fallen well below death rates; this is no longer considered a positive demographic trend, as it leads to natural population decline, and may create an over-aged population that could place a burden on healthcare systems.

Humans have been living on the continent of Australia (name derived from "Terra Australis"; Latin for "the southern land") for approximately 65,000 years, however population growth was relatively slow until the nineteenth century. Europeans had made some contact with Australia as early as 1606, however there was no significant attempt at settlement until the late eighteenth century. By 1800, the population of Australia was approximately 350,000 people, and the majority of these were Indigenous Australians. As colonization progressed the number of ethnic Europeans increased while the Australian Aboriginal population was decimated through conflict, smallpox and other diseases, with some communities being exterminated completely, such as Aboriginal Tasmanians. Mass migration from Britain and China After the loss of its American colonies in the 1780s, the British Empire looked to other parts of the globe to expand its sphere of influence. In Australia, the first colonies were established in Sydney, Tasmania and Western Australia. Many of these were penal colonies which became home to approximately 164,000 British and Irish convicts who were transported to Australia between 1788 and 1868. As the decades progressed, expansion into the interior intensified, and the entire country was claimed by Britain in 1826. Inland colonization led to further conflict between European settlers and indigenous Australians, which cost the lives of thousands of natives. Inward expansion also saw the discovery of many natural resources, and most notably led to the gold rushes of the 1850s, which attracted substantial numbers of Chinese migrants to Australia. This mass migration from non-European countries eventually led to some restrictive policies being introduced, culminating with the White Australia Policy of 1901, which cemented ethnic-European dominance in Australian politics and society. These policies were not retracted until the second half of the 1900s. Independent Australia Australia changed its status to a British dominion in 1901, and eventually became independent in 1931. Despite this, Australia has remained a part of the British Commonwealth, and Australian forces (ANZAC) fought with the British and their Allies in both World Wars, and were instrumental in campaigns such as Gallipoli in WWI, and the South West Pacific Theater in WWII. The aftermath of both wars had a significant impact on the Australian population, with approximately 90 thousand deaths in both world wars combined, as well as 15 thousand deaths as a result of the Spanish flu pandemic following WWI, although Australia experienced a significant baby boom following the Second World War. In the past fifty years, Australia has promoted immigration from all over the world, and now has one of the strongest economies and highest living standards in the world, with a population that has grown to over 25 million people in 2020.

Throughout the Common Era, Japan's population saw relatively steady growth between each century. Failed invasions and distance from Asia's mainland meant that Japan was unaffected by many pandemics, primarily bubonic plague, therefore its development was not drastically impeded in the same way as areas such as China or Europe. Additionally, religious practices meant that hygiene was prioritized much more in Japan than in other regions, and dietary customs saw lower rates of meat consumption and regular boiling of water in meals or tea; both of these factors contributed to lower rates of infection for many parasitic or water-borne diseases. Fewer international conflicts and domestic stability also saw lower mortality in this regard, and Japan was an considered an outlier by Asian standards, as some shifting trends associated with the demographic transition (such as lower child mortality and fertility) began taking place in the 17th century; much earlier time than anywhere else in the world. Yet the most significant changes came in the 20th century, as Japan's advanced healthcare and sanitation systems saw drastic reductions in mortality. Challenges Japan's isolation meant that, when pandemics did arrive, the population had less protection and viruses could have higher mortality rates; smallpox has been cited as the deadliest of these pandemics, although increased international contact in the late 19th century brought new viruses, and population growth slowed. Earlier isolation also meant that crop failure or food shortages could leave large sections of the population vulnerable, and, as mentioned, the Japanese diet contained relatively little meat, therefore there was a higher reliance on crops and vegetables. It is believed that the shortage of arable land and the acidity of the soil due to volcanic activity meant that agriculture was more challenging in Japan than on the Asian mainland. For most of history, paddy fields were the most efficient source of food production in Japan, but the challenging nature of this form of agriculture and changes in employment trends gradually led to an increased reliance in imported crops. Post-Sakoku Japan Distance from the Asian mainland was not the only reason for Japan's isolation; from 1603 to 1853, under the Tokugawa shogunate, international trade was restricted, migration abroad was forbidden, and most foreign interaction was centered around Nagasaki. American neo-imperialism then forced Japan to open trade with the west, and Japan became an imperial power by the early-1900s. Japanese expansion began with a series of military victories against China and Russia at the turn of the century, and the annexation of Taiwan, Korea, and Manchuria by the 1930s, before things escalated further during its invasion of China and the Second World War. Despite its involvement in so many wars, the majority of conflicts involving Japan were overseas, therefore civilian casualties were much lower than those suffered by other Asian countries during this time. After Japan's defeat in 1945, its imperial ambitions were abandoned, it developed strong economic ties with the West, and had the fastest economic growth of any industrial country in the post-WWII period. Today, Japan is one of the most demographically advanced countries in the world, with the highest life expectancy in most years. However, its population has been in a steady decline for over a decade, and low fertility and an over-aged society are considered some of the biggest challenges to Japanese society today.

Until 2007, the share of the global population living in urban areas was always smaller than the rural population, but in 2021, the world's level of urbanization has risen to around 56 percent, and by 2050, it is estimated that two thirds of the world will live in urban areas. Urbanization on such a large scale is a relatively new phenomenon, and has a strong correlation with the industrial maturity of a society. For most of pre-industrial times, fewer than five percent of the total population lived in urban centers, which were generally trading and administrative centers. The main reason for this was the agricultural demands of the time, where subsistence farming was the primary method of food production for the general population. Compared to Japan and China, a larger share of Western Europe lived in urban centers in the 16th century, due to higher levels of trade along the Mediterranean and between northern states, but around 94 percent of the population still lived in a rural setting. Effect of industrialization With the onset of the first industrial revolution in the 19th century, the mechanization of agriculture and development of manufacturing industries saw a shift in labor demands in Western Europe. People began migrating to cities on a large scale, and migration to the U.S. also increased due to industrialization in the northeastern states. Urban populations then became more prosperous, although mortality rates were initially higher due to the more rapid spread of disease and poor sanitation infrastructure. This mortality also disproportionately affected children and more recent arrivals. Global trends Waves of industrialization in Europe saw further urbanization throughout the 1800s, and roughly a third of the population had urbanized by the end of the 19th century. Globally, it would take until the 1960s before one third of the population had urbanized, and it was not until the late 1990s where China's urbanization rate had reached this level. However, China's urbanization rate has grown rapidly since the 1980s, and is now around 80 percent of the EU's level, whereas it was closer to 50 percent just two decades previously. Japan's urbanization rate was comparable to Europe's for most of the 20th century, but increased further throughout the 2010s; today it has one of the highest rates among more developed nations, although this has presented some challenges for Japanese society.

In 1498, Vasco da Gama became the first known European to sail to India by circumventing Africa, which ushered in a new age of European sea trade with Asia. Initially, Indian rulers were unimpressed and wary of the Portuguese, and Muslim traders in the region were hostile, but the Portuguese were able to assess what could be traded for exotic goods (mostly spices) and lucrative trade routes were established after subsequent journeys. Additionally, the Portuguese quickly learned that they had the technological advantage in conflict, and repelled attacks from their Muslim rivals. Fortified trading posts, known as factories, were then established along the African and Asian coasts to protect these trade routes, and these became the foundation upon which the Portuguese Empire (Europe's longest-lasting) was built.

Colonization and competition In 1494, the Treaty of Tordesillas saw Portugal and Spain draw a line through the Atlantic, with each crown laying claim to all non-Christian lands on their respective side. No other European power acknowledged these claims, but it would take almost a century for the British, Dutch, or French to begin establishing their own maritime empires; this meant that the Portuguese had a near-monopoly on the Indian spice trade for almost 100 years, and this was the century when their trade with Asia was most active. Portuguese traders not only did business with merchants in India, but they also explored further, and established trade routes with present-day China, Indonesia, and Japan, and even facilitated trade between these cultures. In the 1590s, the Dutch then followed the Portuguese model of empire building and quickly emerged as Portugal's biggest rival in Asia. VOC The Dutch and Portuguese were in conflict for over 60 years, across four continents, and the Asian and African conflicts are often referred to as the "Spice War". The Netherlands eventually usurped Portugal as the strongest European trading power in Asia by the mid-1600s. Most of the Dutch trade was done through the Dutch East India Company (VOC), which is often considered the most valuable company to have ever existed. In the 17th century, 56 percent of all ships that travelled from the given countries to Asia were Dutch, and the figure was over 44 percent in the following century. Such companies were not only trading enterprises, but also acted in the military and political interests of their respective crowns. The VOC went into decline in the mid-1700s, as the British Empire gained the upper hand in its rivalry with the Netherlands. The British East India Company then consolidated its power on the Indian subcontinent, and Dutch interests were largely centered in the East Indies (present-day Indonesia), which remained a Dutch colony until the Second World War. For France, its primary colonial power in Asia was in French Indochina, made up of present-day Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam, although the seven European powers had trade connections all over Asia, and all competed or cooperated with one another at various points in these 300 years.

A global phenomenon, known as the demographic transition, has seen life expectancy from birth increase rapidly over the past two centuries. In pre-industrial societies, the average life expectancy was around 24 years, and it is believed that this was the case throughout most of history, and in all regions. The demographic transition then began in the industrial societies of Europe, North America, and the West Pacific around the turn of the 19th century, and life expectancy rose accordingly. Latin America was the next region to follow, before Africa and most Asian populations saw their life expectancy rise throughout the 20th century.