Until the 1800s, population growth was incredibly slow on a global level. The global population was estimated to have been around 188 million people in the year 1CE, and did not reach one billion until around 1803. However, since the 1800s, a phenomenon known as the demographic transition has seen population growth skyrocket, reaching eight billion people in 2023, and this is expected to peak at over 10 billion in the 2080s.

The statistic shows the development of the world population from 1950 to 2050. The world population was around 7.38 billion people in 2015.

The global population

As shown above, the total number of people living on Earth has more than doubled since the 1950s, and continues to increase. A look at the development of the world population since the beginning of the Common Era shows that such a surge in numbers is unprecedented. The first significant rise in population occurred during the 14th century, after the Black Death had killed approximately 25 million people worldwide. Subsequently, the global population increased slowly but steadily until it reached record numbers between 1950 and 2000.

The majority of the global population lives on the Asian continent, as a statistic of the world population by continent shows. In around 100 years, it is estimated that population levels on the African continent will have reached similar levels to those we see in Asia today. As for a forecast of the development of the world population, the figures are estimated to have reached more than 10 billion by the 22nd century.

Growing population numbers pose an increasing risk to the planet, since rocketing numbers equal increased consumption of food and resources. Scientists worry that natural resources, such as oil, and food resources will become scarce, endangering the human race and, even more so, the world’s ecosystem. Nowadays, the number of undernourished / starving people worldwide has decreased slightly, but forecasts paint a darker picture.

Whereas the population is expected to decrease somewhat until 2100 in Asia, Europe, and South America, it is predicted to grow significantly in Africa. While there were 1.5 billion inhabitants on the continent at the beginning of 2024, the number of inhabitants is expected to reach 3.8 billion by 2100. In total, the global population is expected to reach nearly 10.4 billion by 2100. Worldwide population In the United States, the total population is expected to steadily increase over the next couple of years. In 2024, Asia held over half of the global population and is expected to have the highest number of people living in urban areas in 2050. Asia is home to the two most populous countries, India and China, both with a population of over one billion people. However, the small country of Monaco had the highest population density worldwide in 2021. Effects of overpopulation Alongside the growing worldwide population, there are negative effects of overpopulation. The increasing population puts a higher pressure on existing resources and contributes to pollution. As the population grows, the demand for food grows, which requires more water, which in turn takes away from the freshwater available. Concurrently, food needs to be transported through different mechanisms, which contributes to air pollution. Not every resource is renewable, meaning the world is using up limited resources that will eventually run out. Furthermore, more species will become extinct which harms the ecosystem and food chain. Overpopulation was considered to be one of the most important environmental issues worldwide in 2020.

The West Africa Coastal Vulnerability Mapping: Population Projections, 2030 and 2050 data set is based on an unreleased working version of the Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 4, year 2010 population count raster but at a coarser 5 arc-minute resolution. Bryan Jones of Baruch College produced country-level projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 (SSP4). SSP4 reflects a divided world where cities that have relatively high standards of living, are attractive to internal and international migrants. In low income countries, rapidly growing rural populations live on shrinking areas of arable land due to both high population pressure and expansion of large-scale mechanized farming by international agricultural firms. This pressure induces large migration flow to the cities, contributing to fast urbanization, although urban areas do not provide many opportUnities for the poor and there is a massive expansion of slums and squatter settlements. This scenario may not be the most likely for the West Africa region, but it has internal coherence and is at least plausible.

Before 2025, the world's total population is expected to reach eight billion. Furthermore, it is predicted to reach over 10 billion in 2060, before slowing again as global birth rates are expected to decrease. Moreover, it is still unclear to what extent global warming will have an impact on population development. A high share of the population increase is expected to happen on the African continent.

Context

The United States Census Bureau’s international dataset provides estimates of country populations since 1950 and projections through 2050. Specifically, the dataset includes midyear population figures broken down by age and gender assignment at birth. Additionally, time-series data is provided for attributes including fertility rates, birth rates, death rates, and migration rates.

Querying BigQuery tables

You can use the BigQuery Python client library to query tables in this dataset in Kernels. Note that methods available in Kernels are limited to querying data. Tables are at bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.

Sample Query 1

What countries have the longest life expectancy? In this query, 2016 census information is retrieved by joining the mortality_life_expectancy and country_names_area tables for countries larger than 25,000 km2. Without the size constraint, Monaco is the top result with an average life expectancy of over 89 years!

standardSQL

SELECT age.country_name, age.life_expectancy, size.country_area FROM ( SELECT country_name, life_expectancy FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.mortality_life_expectancy WHERE year = 2016) age INNER JOIN ( SELECT country_name, country_area FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.country_names_area where country_area > 25000) size ON age.country_name = size.country_name ORDER BY 2 DESC /* Limit removed for Data Studio Visualization */ LIMIT 10

Sample Query 2

Which countries have the largest proportion of their population under 25? Over 40% of the world’s population is under 25 and greater than 50% of the world’s population is under 30! This query retrieves the countries with the largest proportion of young people by joining the age-specific population table with the midyear (total) population table.

standardSQL

SELECT age.country_name, SUM(age.population) AS under_25, pop.midyear_population AS total, ROUND((SUM(age.population) / pop.midyear_population) * 100,2) AS pct_under_25 FROM ( SELECT country_name, population, country_code FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.midyear_population_agespecific WHERE year =2017 AND age < 25) age INNER JOIN ( SELECT midyear_population, country_code FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.midyear_population WHERE year = 2017) pop ON age.country_code = pop.country_code GROUP BY 1, 3 ORDER BY 4 DESC /* Remove limit for visualization*/ LIMIT 10

Sample Query 3

The International Census dataset contains growth information in the form of birth rates, death rates, and migration rates. Net migration is the net number of migrants per 1,000 population, an important component of total population and one that often drives the work of the United Nations Refugee Agency. This query joins the growth rate table with the area table to retrieve 2017 data for countries greater than 500 km2.

SELECT growth.country_name, growth.net_migration, CAST(area.country_area AS INT64) AS country_area FROM ( SELECT country_name, net_migration, country_code FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.birth_death_growth_rates WHERE year = 2017) growth INNER JOIN ( SELECT country_area, country_code FROM bigquery-public-data.census_bureau_international.country_names_area

Update frequency

Historic (none)

Dataset source

United States Census Bureau

Terms of use: This dataset is publicly available for anyone to use under the following terms provided by the Dataset Source - http://www.data.gov/privacy-policy#data_policy - and is provided "AS IS" without any warranty, express or implied, from Google. Google disclaims all liability for any damages, direct or indirect, resulting from the use of the dataset.

See the GCP Marketplace listing for more details and sample queries: https://console.cloud.google.com/marketplace/details/united-states-census-bureau/international-census-data

This dataset provides a comprehensive overview of global population trends, historical data, and future projections. It includes detailed information for various countries and regions, encompassing key demographic indicators such as population size, growth rates, and density.

The dataset covers a broad time span, from 1980 to 2050, allowing for analysis of long-term population dynamics. It incorporates data from reputable sources like the United Nations Population Division and World Population Review, ensuring data accuracy and reliability.

The world's population first reached one billion people in 1803, and reach eight billion in 2023, and will peak at almost 11 billion by the end of the century. Although it took thousands of years to reach one billion people, it did so at the beginning of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition; from this point onwards, population growth has skyrocketed, and since the 1960s the population has increased by one billion people every 12 to 15 years. The demographic transition sees a sharp drop in mortality due to factors such as vaccination, sanitation, and improved food supply; the population boom that follows is due to increased survival rates among children and higher life expectancy among the general population; and fertility then drops in response to this population growth. Regional differences The demographic transition is a global phenomenon, but it has taken place at different times across the world. The industrialized countries of Europe and North America were the first to go through this process, followed by some states in the Western Pacific. Latin America's population then began growing at the turn of the 20th century, but the most significant period of global population growth occurred as Asia progressed in the late-1900s. As of the early 21st century, almost two thirds of the world's population live in Asia, although this is set to change significantly in the coming decades. Future growth The growth of Africa's population, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will have the largest impact on global demographics in this century. From 2000 to 2100, it is expected that Africa's population will have increased by a factor of almost five. It overtook Europe in size in the late 1990s, and overtook the Americas a decade later. In contrast to Africa, Europe's population is now in decline, as birth rates are consistently below death rates in many countries, especially in the south and east, resulting in natural population decline. Similarly, the population of the Americas and Asia are expected to go into decline in the second half of this century, and only Oceania's population will still be growing alongside Africa. By 2100, the world's population will have over three billion more than today, with the vast majority of this concentrated in Africa. Demographers predict that climate change is exacerbating many of the challenges that currently hinder progress in Africa, such as political and food instability; if Africa's transition is prolonged, then it may result in further population growth that would place a strain on the region's resources, however, curbing this growth earlier would alleviate some of the pressure created by climate change.

• The current US Census Bureau world population estimate in June 2019 shows that the current global population is 7,577,130,400 people on Earth, which far exceeds the world population of 7.2 billion in 2015. Our estimate based on UN data shows the world's population surpassing 7.7 billion.
• China is the most populous country in the world with a population exceeding 1.4 billion. It is one of just two countries with a population of more than 1 billion, with India being the second. As of 2018, India has a population of over 1.355 billion people, and its population growth is expected to continue through at least 2050. By the year 2030, India is expected to become the most populous country in the world. This is because India’s population will grow, while China is projected to see a loss in population.
• The following 11 countries that are the most populous in the world each have populations exceeding 100 million. These include the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico, Japan, Ethiopia, and the Philippines. Of these nations, all are expected to continue to grow except Russia and Japan, which will see their populations drop by 2030 before falling again significantly by 2050.
• Many other nations have populations of at least one million, while there are also countries that have just thousands. The smallest population in the world can be found in Vatican City, where only 801 people reside.
• In 2018, the world’s population growth rate was 1.12%. Every five years since the 1970s, the population growth rate has continued to fall. The world’s population is expected to continue to grow larger but at a much slower pace. By 2030, the population will exceed 8 billion. In 2040, this number will grow to more than 9 billion. In 2055, the number will rise to over 10 billion, and another billion people won’t be added until near the end of the century. The current annual population growth estimates from the United Nations are in the millions - estimating that over 80 million new lives are added yearly.
• This population growth will be significantly impacted by nine specific countries which are situated to contribute to the population growth more quickly than other nations. These nations include the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda, the United Republic of Tanzania, and the United States of America. Particularly of interest, India is on track to overtake China's position as the most populous country by 2030. Additionally, multiple nations within Africa are expected to double their populations before fertility rates begin to slow entirely.

Content

• In this Dataset, we have Historical Population data for every Country/Territory in the world by different parameters like Area Size of the Country/Territory, Name of the Continent, Name of the Capital, Density, Population Growth Rate, Ranking based on Population, World Population Percentage, etc. >Dataset Glossary (Column-Wise):
• Rank: Rank by Population.
• CCA3: 3 Digit Country/Territories Code.
• Country/Territories: Name of the Country/Territories.
• Capital: Name of the Capital.
• Continent: Name of the Continent.
• 2022 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 2022.
• 2020 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 2020.
• 2015 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 2015.
• 2010 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 2010.
• 2000 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 2000.
• 1990 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 1990.
• 1980 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 1980.
• 1970 Population: Population of the Country/Territories in the year 1970.
• Area (km²): Area size of the Country/Territories in square kilometers.
• Density (per km²): Population Density per square kilometer.
• Growth Rate: Population Growth Rate by Country/Territories.
• World Population Percentage: The population percentage by each Country/Territories.

Until 2100, the world's population is expected to be ageing. Whereas people over 60 years made up less than 13 percent of the world's population in 2024, this share is estimated to reach 28.8 percent in 2100. On the other hand, the share of people between zero and 14 years was expected to decrease by almost ten percentage points over the same period.

It is estimated that more than 8 billion people live on Earth and the population is likely to hit more than 9 billion by 2050. Approximately 55 percent of Earth’s human population currently live in areas classified as urban. That number is expected to grow by 2050 to 68 percent, according to the United Nations (UN).The largest cities in the world include Tōkyō, Japan; New Delhi, India; Shanghai, China; México City, Mexico; and São Paulo, Brazil. Each of these cities classifies as a megacity, a city with more than 10 million people. The UN estimates the world will have 43 megacities by 2030.Most cities' populations are growing as people move in for greater economic, educational, and healthcare opportunities. But not all cities are expanding. Those cities whose populations are declining may be experiencing declining fertility rates (the number of births is lower than the number of deaths), shrinking economies, emigration, or have experienced a natural disaster that resulted in fatalities or forced people to leave the region.This Global Cities map layer contains data published in 2018 by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA). It shows urban agglomerations. The UN DESA defines an urban agglomeration as a continuous area where population is classified at urban levels (by the country in which the city resides) regardless of what local government systems manage the area. Since not all places record data the same way, some populations may be calculated using the city population as defined by its boundary and the metropolitan area. If a reliable estimate for the urban agglomeration was unable to be determined, the population of the city or metropolitan area is used.Data Citation: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision. Statistical Papers - United Nations (ser. A), Population and Vital Statistics Report, 2019, https://doi.org/10.18356/b9e995fe-en.

Africa is estimated to be the habitat of 25.52 percent of the total global population by the year 2050. In 2025, Africa will house 18.83 percent of the world population.

This is a hybrid gridded dataset of demographic data for the world, given as 5-year population bands at a 0.5 degree grid resolution.

This dataset combines the NASA SEDAC Gridded Population of the World version 4 (GPWv4) with the ISIMIP Histsoc gridded population data and the United Nations World Population Program (WPP) demographic modelling data.

Demographic fractions are given for the time period covered by the UN WPP model (1950-2050) while demographic totals are given for the time period covered by the combination of GPWv4 and Histsoc (1950-2020)

Method - demographic fractions

Demographic breakdown of country population by grid cell is calculated by combining the GPWv4 demographic data given for 2010 with the yearly country breakdowns from the UN WPP. This combines the spatial distribution of demographics from GPWv4 with the temporal trends from the UN WPP. This makes it possible to calculate exposure trends from 1980 to the present day.

To combine the UN WPP demographics with the GPWv4 demographics, we calculate for each country the proportional change in fraction of demographic in each age band relative to 2010 as:

\(\delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}} = f_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}/f_{2010,country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\)

Where:

- \(\delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\) is the ratio of change in demographic for a given age and and country from the UN WPP dataset.

- \(f_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\) is the fraction of population in the UN WPP dataset for a given age band, country, and year.

- \(f_{2010,country,age}^{\text{wpp}}\) is the fraction of population in the UN WPP dataset for a given age band, country for the year 2020.

The gridded demographic fraction is then calculated relative to the 2010 demographic data given by GPWv4.

For each subset of cells corresponding to a given country c, the fraction of population in a given age band is calculated as:

\(f_{year,c,age}^{\text{gpw}} = \delta_{year,\ country,age}^{\text{wpp}}*f_{2010,c,\text{age}}^{\text{gpw}}\)

Where:

- \(f_{year,c,age}^{\text{gpw}}\) is the fraction of the population in a given age band for given year, for the grid cell c.

- \(f_{2010,c,age}^{\text{gpw}}\) is the fraction of the population in a given age band for 2010, for the grid cell c.

The matching between grid cells and country codes is performed using the GPWv4 gridded country code lookup data and country name lookup table. The final dataset is assembled by combining the cells from all countries into a single gridded time series. This time series covers the whole period from 1950-2050, corresponding to the data available in the UN WPP model.

Method - demographic totals

Total population data from 1950 to 1999 is drawn from ISIMIP Histsoc, while data from 2000-2020 is drawn from GPWv4. These two gridded time series are simply joined at the cut-over date to give a single dataset covering 1950-2020.

The total population per age band per cell is calculated by multiplying the population fractions by the population totals per grid cell.

Note that as the total population data only covers until 2020, the time span covered by the demographic population totals data is 1950-2020 (not 1950-2050).

Disclaimer

This dataset is a hybrid of different datasets with independent methodologies. No guarantees are made about the spatial or temporal consistency across dataset boundaries. The dataset may contain outlier points (e.g single cells with demographic fractions >1). This dataset is produced on a 'best effort' basis and has been found to be broadly consistent with other approaches, but may contain inconsistencies which not been identified.

A computerized data set of demographic, economic and social data for 227 countries of the world. Information presented includes population, health, nutrition, mortality, fertility, family planning and contraceptive use, literacy, housing, and economic activity data. Tabular data are broken down by such variables as age, sex, and urban/rural residence. Data are organized as a series of statistical tables identified by country and table number. Each record consists of the data values associated with a single row of a given table. There are 105 tables with data for 208 countries. The second file is a note file, containing text of notes associated with various tables. These notes provide information such as definitions of categories (i.e. urban/rural) and how various values were calculated. The IDB was created in the U.S. Census Bureau''s International Programs Center (IPC) to help IPC staff meet the needs of organizations that sponsor IPC research. The IDB provides quick access to specialized information, with emphasis on demographic measures, for individual countries or groups of countries. The IDB combines data from country sources (typically censuses and surveys) with IPC estimates and projections to provide information dating back as far as 1950 and as far ahead as 2050. Because the IDB is maintained as a research tool for IPC sponsor requirements, the amount of information available may vary by country. As funding and research activity permit, the IPC updates and expands the data base content. Types of data include: * Population by age and sex * Vital rates, infant mortality, and life tables * Fertility and child survivorship * Migration * Marital status * Family planning Data characteristics: * Temporal: Selected years, 1950present, projected demographic data to 2050. * Spatial: 227 countries and areas. * Resolution: National population, selected data by urban/rural * residence, selected data by age and sex. Sources of data include: * U.S. Census Bureau * International projects (e.g., the Demographic and Health Survey) * United Nations agencies Links: * ICPSR: http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/ICPSR/studies/08490

World population density 1950-2050

Globally, about 25 percent of the population is under 15 years of age and 10 percent is over 65 years of age. Africa has the youngest population worldwide. In Sub-Saharan Africa, more than 40 percent of the population is below 15 years, and only three percent are above 65, indicating the low life expectancy in several of the countries. In Europe, on the other hand, a higher share of the population is above 65 years than the population under 15 years. Fertility rates The high share of children and youth in Africa is connected to the high fertility rates on the continent. For instance, South Sudan and Niger have the highest population growth rates globally. However, about 50 percent of the world’s population live in countries with low fertility, where women have less than 2.1 children. Some countries in Europe, like Latvia and Lithuania, have experienced a population decline of one percent, and in the Cook Islands, it is even above two percent. In Europe, the majority of the population was previously working-aged adults with few dependents, but this trend is expected to reverse soon, and it is predicted that by 2050, the older population will outnumber the young in many developed countries. Growing global population As of 2025, there are 8.1 billion people living on the planet, and this is expected to reach more than nine billion before 2040. Moreover, the global population is expected to reach 10 billions around 2060, before slowing and then even falling slightly by 2100. As the population growth rates indicate, a significant share of the population increase will happen in Africa.

The average level of the ocean has been rising since we started measuring and recording this data. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA), since 1900 the global mean sea level has risen more than 200 millimeters (nearly 8 inches) and nearly half of that increase has occurred since 1993 in a concerning change in rate of rise.Sea level rise is one of the many effects of global warming. Scientists attribute sea level rise to two things, melting ice and increased ocean water temperatures. Increasing air temperatures, particularly in the polar regions, has encouraged the melting of land-based ice reserves such as glaciers, ice sheets, and permafrost. Historically, warm season ice melt was balanced by replenishment during the cold season but warming temperatures have created conditions where melting exceeds the buildup of ice. This water flows through rivers and streams to the ocean in quantities sufficient to contribute to sea level rise.Oceans are also massive heat sinks. They pull large quantities of atmospheric heat and greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and store it in the ocean. The sea changes temperature much more slowly than the air and over time ocean temperatures have continued to build. As the ocean water warms it expands causing the sea levels to rise.Sea levels are not rising equally across Earth. Some areas are already experiencing significant impacts due to the rising water levels while others have seen minimal changes. This is due to a variety of reasons. First, despite how it is typically illustrated Earth is not perfectly round so the height of the ocean at any given point varies. This can be due to the Earth’s rotation, ocean currents, or prevailing wind speed and direction.Experts consider sea level rise and urgent climatic threat. Many low-lying places such as islands and coastal areas are already experiencing high waters. Higher waters also make storms such as hurricanes more dangerous due to higher storm surges and flooding. As coastlines could lose key infrastructure, land will become uninhabitable, and many people could lose their livelihoods. It is estimated 10 percent of the world’s population could be impacted as the waters rise. Many of the approximately 770 million people could be forced to migrate to higher ground, or in the case of island countries, such as Kiribati, to new countries once theirs sinks below the sea.This map was created with data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA, and the United States Geological Survey. Experts used an elevation data and the NOAA model Scenarios of Future Mean Seal Level to illustrate the scale of potential coastal flooding. The mapmaker chose to remove levees from the data, so the areas flooded include places, particularly in the states of Texas and Louisiana, that are presently protected by this infrastructure. It is important to note that these are possible outcomes. This model does not include possible erosion, subsidence, or construction that may occur between 2022 when this data was created and 2030, 2050, or 2090 respectively. While models are powerful tools it is difficult to calculate every aspect that shapes our environment.Learn more about how coastal communities are impacted by sea level rise with this StoryMap by NOAA’s Office for Coastal Management, The King Tides Project: Snap the shore, See the Future.

In 2050, the three East Asian countries Hong Kong (SAR of China), South Korea, and Japan are forecasted to have the highest share of people aged 65 years or more. Except for Kuwait, all the countries on the list are either in Europe or East Asia. By 2050, 22 percent of the world's population is expected to be above 60 years.

The West Africa Coastal Vulnerability Mapping: Population Projections, 2030 and 2050 data set is based on an unreleased working version of the Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 4, year 2010 population count raster but at a coarser 5 arc-minute resolution. Bryan Jones of Baruch College produced country-level projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 (SSP4). SSP4 reflects a divided world where cities that have relatively high standards of living, are attractive to internal and international migrants. In low income countries, rapidly growing rural populations live on shrinking areas of arable land due to both high population pressure and expansion of large-scale mechanized farming by international agricultural firms. This pressure induces large migration flow to the cities, contributing to fast urbanization, although urban areas do not provide many opportUnities for the poor and there is a massive expansion of slums and squatter settlements. This scenario may not be the most likely for the West Africa region, but it has internal coherence and is at least plausible.

IntroductionThe combined populations of China and India were 2.78 billion in 2020, representing 36% of the world population (7.75 billion). Wheat is the second most important staple grain in both China and India. In 2019, the aggregate wheat consumption in China was 96.4 million ton and in India it was 82.5 million ton, together it was more than 35% of the world's wheat that year. In China, in 2050, the projected population will be 1294–1515 million, and in India, it is projected to be 14.89–1793 million, under the low and high-fertility rate assumptions. A question arises as to, what will be aggregate demand for wheat in China and India in 2030 and 2050?MethodsApplying the Vector Error Correction model estimation process in the time series econometric estimation setting, this study projected the per capita and annual aggregate wheat consumptions of China and India during 2019-2050. In the process, this study relies on agricultural data sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States (FAO) database (FAOSTAT), as well as the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) data catalog. The presence of unit root in the data series are tested by applying the augmented Dickey-Fuller test; Philips-Perron unit root test; Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test, and Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test allowing for a single break in intercept and/or trend. The test statistics suggest that a natural log transformation and with the first difference of the variables provides stationarity of the data series for both China and India. The Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test, however, suggested that there is a structural break in urban population share and GDP per capita. To tackle the issue, we have included a year dummy and two multiplicative dummies in our model. Furthermore, the Johansen cointegration test suggests that at least one variable in both data series were cointegrated. These tests enable us to apply Vector Error Correction (VEC) model estimation procedure. In estimation the model, the appropriate number of lags of the variables is confirmed by applying the “varsoc” command in Stata 17 software interface. The estimated yearly per capita wheat consumption in 2030 and 2050 from the VEC model, are multiplied by the projected population in 2030 and 2050 to calculate the projected aggregate wheat demand in China and India in 2030 and 2050. After projecting the yearly per capita wheat consumption (KG), we multiply with the projected population to get the expected consumption demand.ResultsThis study found that the yearly per capita wheat consumption of China will increase from 65.8 kg in 2019 to 76 kg in 2030, and 95 kg in 2050. In India, the yearly per capita wheat consumption will increase to 74 kg in 2030 and 94 kg in 2050 from 60.4 kg in 2019. Considering the projected population growth rates under low-fertility assumptions, aggregate wheat consumption of China will increase by more than 13% in 2030 and by 28% in 2050. Under the high-fertility rate assumption, however the aggregate wheat consumption of China will increase by 18% in 2030 and nearly 50% in 2050. In the case of India, under both low and high-fertility rate assumptions, aggregate wheat demand in India will increase by 32-38% in 2030 and by 70-104% in 2050 compared to 2019 level of consumption.DiscussionsOur results underline the importance of wheat in both countries, which are the world's top wheat producers and consumers, and suggest the importance of research and development investments to maintain sufficient national wheat grain production levels to meet China and India's domestic demand. This is critical both to ensure the food security of this large segment of the world populace, which also includes 23% of the total population of the world who live on less than US $1.90/day, as well as to avoid potential grain market destabilization and price hikes that arise in the event of large import demands.