In 1800, the population of the region of present-day India was approximately 169 million. The population would grow gradually throughout the 19th century, rising to over 240 million by 1900. Population growth would begin to increase in the 1920s, as a result of falling mortality rates, due to improvements in health, sanitation and infrastructure. However, the population of India would see it’s largest rate of growth in the years following the country’s independence from the British Empire in 1948, where the population would rise from 358 million to over one billion by the turn of the century, making India the second country to pass the billion person milestone. While the rate of growth has slowed somewhat as India begins a demographics shift, the country’s population has continued to grow dramatically throughout the 21st century, and in 2020, India is estimated to have a population of just under 1.4 billion, well over a billion more people than one century previously. Today, approximately 18% of the Earth’s population lives in India, and it is estimated that India will overtake China to become the most populous country in the world within the next five years.

Chart and table of India population from 1950 to 2025. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100.

In the past four centuries, the population of the United States has grown from a recorded 350 people around the Jamestown colony of Virginia in 1610, to an estimated 331 million people in 2020. The pre-colonization populations of the indigenous peoples of the Americas have proven difficult for historians to estimate, as their numbers decreased rapidly following the introduction of European diseases (namely smallpox, plague and influenza). Native Americans were also omitted from most censuses conducted before the twentieth century, therefore the actual population of what we now know as the United States would have been much higher than the official census data from before 1800, but it is unclear by how much. Population growth in the colonies throughout the eighteenth century has primarily been attributed to migration from the British Isles and the Transatlantic slave trade; however it is also difficult to assert the ethnic-makeup of the population in these years as accurate migration records were not kept until after the 1820s, at which point the importation of slaves had also been illegalized. Nineteenth century In the year 1800, it is estimated that the population across the present-day United States was around six million people, with the population in the 16 admitted states numbering at 5.3 million. Migration to the United States began to happen on a large scale in the mid-nineteenth century, with the first major waves coming from Ireland, Britain and Germany. In some aspects, this wave of mass migration balanced out the demographic impacts of the American Civil War, which was the deadliest war in U.S. history with approximately 620 thousand fatalities between 1861 and 1865. The civil war also resulted in the emancipation of around four million slaves across the south; many of whose ancestors would take part in the Great Northern Migration in the early 1900s, which saw around six million black Americans migrate away from the south in one of the largest demographic shifts in U.S. history. By the end of the nineteenth century, improvements in transport technology and increasing economic opportunities saw migration to the United States increase further, particularly from southern and Eastern Europe, and in the first decade of the 1900s the number of migrants to the U.S. exceeded one million people in some years. Twentieth and twenty-first century The U.S. population has grown steadily throughout the past 120 years, reaching one hundred million in the 1910s, two hundred million in the 1960s, and three hundred million in 2007. In the past century, the U.S. established itself as a global superpower, with the world's largest economy (by nominal GDP) and most powerful military. Involvement in foreign wars has resulted in over 620,000 further U.S. fatalities since the Civil War, and migration fell drastically during the World Wars and Great Depression; however the population continuously grew in these years as the total fertility rate remained above two births per woman, and life expectancy increased (except during the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918).

Since the Second World War, Latin America has replaced Europe as the most common point of origin for migrants, with Hispanic populations growing rapidly across the south and border states. Because of this, the proportion of non-Hispanic whites, which has been the most dominant ethnicity in the U.S. since records began, has dropped more rapidly in recent decades. Ethnic minorities also have a much higher birth rate than non-Hispanic whites, further contributing to this decline, and the share of non-Hispanic whites is expected to fall below fifty percent of the U.S. population by the mid-2000s. In 2020, the United States has the third-largest population in the world (after China and India), and the population is expected to reach four hundred million in the 2050s.

The region of present-day China has historically been the most populous region in the world; however, its population development has fluctuated throughout history. In 2022, China was overtaken as the most populous country in the world, and current projections suggest its population is heading for a rapid decline in the coming decades. Transitions of power lead to mortality The source suggests that conflict, and the diseases brought with it, were the major obstacles to population growth throughout most of the Common Era, particularly during transitions of power between various dynasties and rulers. It estimates that the total population fell by approximately 30 million people during the 14th century due to the impact of Mongol invasions, which inflicted heavy losses on the northern population through conflict, enslavement, food instability, and the introduction of bubonic plague. Between 1850 and 1870, the total population fell once more, by more than 50 million people, through further conflict, famine and disease; the most notable of these was the Taiping Rebellion, although the Miao an Panthay Rebellions, and the Dungan Revolt, also had large death tolls. The third plague pandemic also originated in Yunnan in 1855, which killed approximately two million people in China. 20th and 21st centuries There were additional conflicts at the turn of the 20th century, which had significant geopolitical consequences for China, but did not result in the same high levels of mortality seen previously. It was not until the overlapping Chinese Civil War (1927-1949) and Second World War (1937-1945) where the death tolls reached approximately 10 and 20 million respectively. Additionally, as China attempted to industrialize during the Great Leap Forward (1958-1962), economic and agricultural mismanagement resulted in the deaths of tens of millions (possibly as many as 55 million) in less than four years, during the Great Chinese Famine. This mortality is not observable on the given dataset, due to the rapidity of China's demographic transition over the entire period; this saw improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and infrastructure result in sweeping changes across the population. The early 2020s marked some significant milestones in China's demographics, where it was overtaken by India as the world's most populous country, and its population also went into decline. Current projections suggest that China is heading for a "demographic disaster", as its rapidly aging population is placing significant burdens on China's economy, government, and society. In stark contrast to the restrictive "one-child policy" of the past, the government has introduced a series of pro-fertility incentives for couples to have larger families, although the impact of these policies are yet to materialize. If these current projections come true, then China's population may be around half its current size by the end of the century.

The earliest point where scientists can make reasonable estimates for the population of global regions is around 10,000 years before the Common Era (or 12,000 years ago). Estimates suggest that Asia has consistently been the most populated continent, and the least populated continent has generally been Oceania (although it was more heavily populated than areas such as North America in very early years). Population growth was very slow, but an increase can be observed between most of the given time periods. There were, however, dips in population due to pandemics, the most notable of these being the impact of plague in Eurasia in the 14th century, and the impact of European contact with the indigenous populations of the Americas after 1492, where it took almost four centuries for the population of Latin America to return to its pre-1500 level. The world's population first reached one billion people in 1803, which also coincided with a spike in population growth, due to the onset of the demographic transition. This wave of growth first spread across the most industrially developed countries in the 19th century, and the correlation between demographic development and industrial or economic maturity continued until today, with Africa being the final major region to begin its transition in the late-1900s.

Life expectancy in India was 25.4 in the year 1800, and over the course of the next 220 years, it has increased to almost 70. Between 1800 and 1920, life expectancy in India remained in the mid to low twenties, with the largest declines coming in the 1870s and 1910s; this was because of the Great Famine of 1876-1878, and the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-1919, both of which were responsible for the deaths of up to six and seventeen million Indians respectively; as well as the presence of other endemic diseases in the region, such as smallpox. From 1920 onwards, India's life expectancy has consistently increased, but it is still below the global average.

In 1800, the population of the area of modern-day Pakistan was estimated to be just over 13 million. Population growth in the 19th century would be gradual in the region, rising to just 19 million at the turn of the century. In the early 1800s, the British Empire slowly consolidated power in the region, eventually controlling the region of Pakistan from the mid-19th century onwards, as part of the British Raj. From the 1930s on, the population's growth rate would increase as improvements in healthcare (particularly vaccination) and sanitation would lead to lower infant mortality rates and higher life expectancy. Independence In 1947, the Muslim-majority country of Pakistan gained independence from Britain, and split from the Hindu-majority country of India. In the next few years, upwards of ten million people migrated between the two nations, during a period that was blemished by widespread atrocities on both sides. Throughout this time, the region of Bangladesh was also a part Pakistan (as it also had a Muslim majority), known as East Pakistan; internal disputes between the two regions were persistent for over two decades, until 1971, when a short but bloody civil war resulted in Bangladesh's independence. Political disputes between Pakistan and India also created tension in the first few decades of independence, even boiling over into some relatively small-scale conflicts, although there was some economic progress and improvements in quality of life for Pakistan's citizens. The late 20th century was also characterized by several attempts to become democratic, but with intermittent periods of military rule. Between independence and the end of the century, Pakistan's population had grown more than four times in total. Pakistan today Since 2008, Pakistan has been a functioning democracy, with an emerging economy and increasing international prominence. Despite the emergence of a successful middle-class, this is prosperity is not reflected in all areas of the population as almost a quarter still live in poverty, and Pakistan ranks in the bottom 20% of countries according to the Human Development Index. In 2020, Pakistan is thought to have a total population of over 220 million people, making it the fifth-most populous country in the world.

More than two thirds of the world population were living in some form of autocracy in 2022. This high share is explained by the fact that around one third of the world population is residing in India and China, classified as an electoral autocracy and closed autocracy, respectively. India falling from an electoral democracy to an electoral autocracy explains why the share of people living in autocracies increased sharply in 2017.

In 1800, the population of the area of modern-day Bangladesh was estimated to be just over 19 million, a figure which would rise steadily throughout the 19th century, reaching over 26 million by 1900. At the time, Bangladesh was the eastern part of the Bengal region in the British Raj, and had the most-concentrated Muslim population in the subcontinent's east. At the turn of the 20th century, the British colonial administration believed that east Bengal was economically lagging behind the west, and Bengal was partitioned in 1905 as a means of improving the region's development. East Bengal then became the only Muslim-majority state in the eastern Raj, which led to socioeconomic tensions between the Hindu upper classes and the general population. Bengal Famine During the Second World War, over 2.5 million men from across the British Raj enlisted in the British Army and their involvement was fundamental to the war effort. The war, however, had devastating consequences for the Bengal region, as the famine of 1943-1944 resulted in the deaths of up to three million people (with over two thirds thought to have been in the east) due to starvation and malnutrition-related disease. As the population boomed in the 1930s, East Bengal's mismanaged and underdeveloped agricultural sector could not sustain this growth; by 1942, food shortages spread across the region, millions began migrating in search of food and work, and colonial mismanagement exacerbated this further. On the brink of famine in early-1943, authorities in India called for aid and permission to redirect their own resources from the war effort to combat the famine, however these were mostly rejected by authorities in London. While the exact extent of each of these factors on causing the famine remains a topic of debate, the general consensus is that the British War Cabinet's refusal to send food or aid was the most decisive. Food shortages did not dissipate until late 1943, however famine deaths persisted for another year. Partition to independence Following the war, the movement for Indian independence reached its final stages as the process of British decolonization began. Unrest between the Raj's Muslim and Hindu populations led to the creation of two separate states in1947; the Muslim-majority regions became East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) and West Pakistan (now Pakistan), separated by the Hindu-majority India. Although East Pakistan's population was larger, power lay with the military in the west, and authorities grew increasingly suppressive and neglectful of the eastern province in the following years. This reached a tipping point when authorities failed to respond adequately to the Bhola cyclone in 1970, which claimed over half a million lives in the Bengal region, and again when they failed to respect the results of the 1970 election, in which the Bengal party Awami League won the majority of seats. Bangladeshi independence was claimed the following March, leading to a brutal war between East and West Pakistan that claimed between 1.5 and three million deaths in just nine months. The war also saw over half of the country displaced, widespread atrocities, and the systematic rape of hundreds of thousands of women. As the war spilled over into India, their forces joined on the side of Bangladesh, and Pakistan was defeated two weeks later. An additional famine in 1974 claimed the lives of several hundred thousand people, meaning that the early 1970s was one of the most devastating periods in the country's history. Independent Bangladesh In the first decades of independence, Bangladesh's political hierarchy was particularly unstable and two of its presidents were assassinated in military coups. Since transitioning to parliamentary democracy in the 1990s, things have become comparatively stable, although political turmoil, violence, and corruption are persistent challenges. As Bangladesh continues to modernize and industrialize, living standards have increased and individual wealth has risen. Service industries have emerged to facilitate the demands of Bangladesh's developing economy, while manufacturing industries, particularly textiles, remain strong. Declining fertility rates have seen natural population growth fall in recent years, although the influx of Myanmar's Rohingya population due to the displacement crisis has seen upwards of one million refugees arrive in the country since 2017. In 2020, it is estimated that Bangladesh has a population of approximately 165 million people.

In India, the crude birth rate in 1880 was 41.5 live births per thousand people, meaning that approximately 4.2 percent of the population had been born in that year. After an initial jump from 40.9 to 46.5 births per thousand between 1885 and 1890, India's crude birth rate remained consistent at just over 45 until the middle of the twentieth century. It was during the late 1940s that India gained its independence from the British Empire, and from this point the crude birth rate has gradually decreased from over 45 births per thousand people in 1945, to below twenty today. In 2020, it is expected to be just 18 births per thousand.

In 1800, the population of the island of Sri Lanka was approximately 1.2 million. This figure would begin to grow following the island’s complete annexation into the British Empire with the end of the Second Kandyan War in 1815. Population growth then increased much faster towards the end of the 19th century, as child mortality rates dropped and large numbers of Indian migrants were imported to work on British plantations. These migrants were largely Tamil migrants from southern India, and by 1911, this group would make up almost 13 percent of the island’s population (on top of the existing 13 percent Sri Lankan Tamil population).

Population growth would expand rapidly in the years immediately following the island’s independence from the British Empire in 1948. However, this growth would slow in the 1950s, as legislation passed by the Sinhalese-dominated government immediately following independence resulted in the removal of citizenship for an estimated 700,000 Indian Tamils, and the deportation of over 300,000 to India over the following three decades. Growth would slow even further after the ethnic clashes of Black July in 1983, which marked the beginning of a civil war in Sri Lanka which would last from 1983 to 2009 and result in the death of over 80,000 people, and the displacement of an estimated 800,000. However, since the end of the civil war in 2009, the population of Sri Lanka has continued to grow, and in 2020, the population of Sri Lanka is estimated to be over 21 million.

The fertility rate of a country is the average number of children that women from that country will have throughout their reproductive years. From 1880 until 1970, India's fertility rate was very consistent, and women of this time had an average of 5.7 to six children over the course of their lifetime. In the second half of the twentieth century, the fertility rate dropped considerably, and has continued to drop in the 2000s. This decrease in the rate of fertility follows a common correlation between quality of life and fertility, where the fertility rate decreases as the standard of living improves. In 1947, after almost a century, the Indian independence movement finally achieved its goal, and India was able to self rule. From this point onwards, Indian socio-economic improvements led to a decreased fertility rate, which is expected to fall to 2.2 in 2020.

From 1800 until the late twentieth century, there was a steady increase in Afghanistan's population. Throughout the nineteenth century, Afghanistan became a battleground for the British Empire, who tried to control the area in order to prevent Russian expansion towards the British Raj. Despite resisting the British invasion in the first Anglo-Afghan War, (where the British Army was almost completely wiped out), the Second Anglo-Afghan War in 1880 saw Britain seize control of the region. In contrast to the neighboring colonies on the Indian subcontinent, Britain did not colonize Afghanistan for economic purposes, therefore they did not invest in agriculture or infrastructure, nor introduce medicine in the same way they did in the Raj, and focused only on Afghanistan's international affairs. Independence and progress The Third Anglo-Afghan War, where Afghan forces invaded British India in 1919, resulted in Afghanistan's independence finally being declared after two months of conflict. The next decade saw some major reforms that attempted to modernize Afghan society, (notable progress was made for women's rights and education) however this alienated many conservative and religious tribes, and a civil war broke out in 1928. After the war (and brief usurpation) the new King of Afghanistan, Nadir Khan, consolidated power, and also moved to modernize the country, but more gradually than his predecessors in order to avoid further alienation and conflict. Khan's approach remained in place until the 1970s, when a bloodless coup established a republic. The republic never achieved political stability, and the Sauri Revolution of 1978 resulted in the formation of the communist Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. Continuous war Despite some progressive reforms, such as banning forced marriages and opening a space for women in politics, the determination to promote state atheism combined with the country's economic dependence on the Soviet Union led to serious opposition from Afghan people, particularly in rural areas. On December 24, 1979, the Soviet Union (backed by the Afghan government) invaded the country, and the ensuing decade-long guerilla war resulted in as many as two million fatalities and three million wounded, as well as two million internally displaced persons and five million refugees abroad. Soviet withdrawal was seen as a western victory, as they had supported the Taliban in their fight against the Soviets, however a decade later the Taliban refused to hand over Osama Bin Laden and other al-Qaeda suspects to the US, following the 9/11 attacks in 2001. This led to US and British forces launching Operation Enduring Freedom in October 2001, and an intensive bombing campaign followed, destroying many major cities in the country. The Taliban government was toppled in December 2001, and in 2002 a western-led rebuilding of the country began. Over the past two decades, many displaced Afghans have returned home, leading to some economic growth, however guerilla fighting continues and there is a strong military presence in the country (including many Taliban controlled areas). In 2020, Afghanistan remains one of the poorest and most politically unstable countries in the world, however the rapid population growth experienced in recent decades is expected to continue well into the future, as improvements in medical care and humanitarian aid become more widespread across the country.

Worldwide, around 5.6 billion people were living in countries classified as autocracies in 2022. Parts of this is down to the fact that the world's two most populous countries, China and India, who both count around 1.4 billion inhabitants, are classified as a closed autocracy and electoral autocracy, respectively. Similarly, the large increase of people living in autocracies in 2017 is because India was downgraded from an electoral democracy to an electoral autocracy that year.

For most of the past two centuries, falling birth rates have been associated with societal progress. During the demographic transition, where pre-industrial societies modernize in terms of fertility and mortality, falling death rates, especially among infants and children, are the first major change. In response, as more children survive into adulthood, women have fewer children as the need to compensate for child mortality declines. This transition has happened at different times across the world and is an ongoing process, with early industrial countries being the first to transition, and Sub-Saharan African countries being the most recent to do so. Additionally, some Asian countries (particularly China through government policy) have gone through their demographic transitions at a much faster pace than those deemed more developed. Today, in countries such as Japan, Italy, and Germany, birth rates have fallen well below death rates; this is no longer considered a positive demographic trend, as it leads to natural population decline, and may create an over-aged population that could place a burden on healthcare systems.

A global phenomenon, known as the demographic transition, has seen life expectancy from birth increase rapidly over the past two centuries. In pre-industrial societies, the average life expectancy was around 24 years, and it is believed that this was the case throughout most of history, and in all regions. The demographic transition then began in the industrial societies of Europe, North America, and the West Pacific around the turn of the 19th century, and life expectancy rose accordingly. Latin America was the next region to follow, before Africa and most Asian populations saw their life expectancy rise throughout the 20th century.

While the European colonization and settlement of other world regions largely began in the 16th and 17th centuries, it was not until the 19th century when the largest waves of migration began to take place. In early years, migration rates were comparatively low; in all of the Americas, the slave population actually outnumbered that of Europeans for most of the given period. Then, with the development of steam ships, intercontinental travel became more affordable and accessible to the masses, and voluntary migration from Europe rose significantly. Additionally, larger numbers of Asian migrants, especially from India and China, migrated to Australia, the Caribbean, and U.S. from the mid-1800s; although the U.S. and Australia both introduced policies that limited or prevented Asian immigration throughout most of the early 1900s. International migration between 1913 and 1950 was also comparatively low due to the tumultuous nature of the period, which involved both World Wars and the Great Depression.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that there were millions of smallpox cases every year until the 1970s, when the WHO's eradication program then successfully eliminated the disease in nature. Some academic estimates place smallpox's death toll at 300 million in the twentieth century, and 500 million in its final hundred years of existence. The development of the smallpox vaccination, which was the first successfully developed vaccine (the word vaccination comes from the Latin word for cow;"vacca", as cowpox was used to develop the smallpox vaccine), greatly contributed to the significant decline in infant and child mortality across the globe, and the boom in population growth during the twentieth century. Reported cases In spite of these large numbers, the figures for reported cases was only a tiny fraction of this; for example, the WHO estimates that there were fifty million cases in 1950, however less than one percent of these cases were recorded. In spite of this, the data is still useful for showing how smallpox developed and spread throughout the world; we know that the majority of these cases were recorded in the Indian sub-continent, and that epidemics across Asia drove the number of recorded cases up in the middle of the century. The final naturally-occurring cases were observed in 1977, while the two cases in 1978 were due to a lab accident in England, which resulted in one fatality.

Die Gesamtbevölkerung von Indien ist auch im Jahr 2023 stark gewachsen und beträgt geschätzt rund 1,44 Milliarden Einwohner:innen. Damit hat sich die Einwohnerzahl Indiens binnen eines Jahres um rund 13 Millionen Einwohner:innen erhöht. Für das Jahr 2023 wird die Gesamtbevölkerung Indiens auf rund 1,429 Milliarden Einwohner prognostiziert. Wann wird Indien China als bevölkerungsreichstes Land der Erde ablösen? Bleibt es bei dieser positiven Bevölkerungsentwicklung von Indien stellt sich nicht die Frage ob, sondern nur wann China auf dem ersten Platz im Ranking der bevölkerungsreichsten Länder der Erde von Indien abgelöst wird. Im Hinblick auf die prognostizierte Gesamtbevölkerung von China wird Indien bereits im Jahr 2023 das Land mit der weltweit größten Einwohnerzahl sein. Auch aktuelle Bevölkerungsprognosen der UN sehen Indien bis zum Jahr 2030 an der Spitze. Natürliche Bevölkerungsentwicklung oder Migration? Grundsätzlich kann bei der Bevölkerungsentwicklung zwischen dem natürlichen Bevölkerungswachstum und der Zuwachsrate (allgemeines Bevölkerungswachstum) unterschieden werden:natürliches Bevölkerungswachstum

Das natürliche Bevölkerungswachstum ergibt sich aus der Verrechnung von Geburten und Todesfällen.

Zuwachsrate

Bei der Zuwachsrate wird das natürliche Bevölkerungswachstum mit dem Migrationssaldo, also dem Saldo aus Immigration (Einwanderung) und Emigration (Auswanderung) verrechnet.

Zusammenhang

Industrieländer benötigen im Allgemeinen eine Geburtenrate (Fertilitätsrate) von durchschnittlich 2,1 Kindern je Frau, um den Bestand der Population konstant zu halten (Bestandserhaltungsniveau). Für ein positives Bevölkerungswachstum wird dementsprechend eine höhere Geburtenrate oder ein positiver Migrationssaldo benötigt.