Chart and table of population level and growth rate for the West Yorkshire, UK metro area from 1950 to 2025. United Nations population projections are also included through the year 2035.

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.

The aims of this project were to:

• understand the demographic changes that United Kingdom local ethnic populations are presently experiencing and are likely to experience in the remainder of the 21st century
• understand the impact that international migration is having on the size and ethnic composition of UK local populations
• understand the role that differences in fertility between the UK's ethnic groups plays in shaping current and future trends
• understand the role that mortality differences between ethnic groups is playing in the changing demography of the UK's local populations
• understand how the ethnic diversity of UK local populations is changing and likely to change in the future
• deliver the projections as a resource for use by social science in the UK
• build capacity in the analysis of demographic change through the development of young and middle career researchers
• tap into the best practice internationally to benefit the UK social science community.

To achieve the project aims, the objectives were to:

• build projections of the populations of ethnic groups for UK local areas
• use the population projection model to explore alternative futures.

The project built a model for projecting the ethnic group populations of UK Local Authorities (LAs), which handles 352 LAs, 16 ethnic groups, 102 ages and 2 sexes. To drive the projections, estimates of the components of ethnic change were prepared for 2001-7. A new method produced UK estimates of ethnic life expectancy, ranging from 82 years for Chinese women to 77 for Pakistani. A future 2% decline in mortality per annum was assumed. Ethnic fertility estimates showed that only Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis had total fertility rates above replacement. Small declines in fertility were forecast. New estimates of the local distribution of immigration were made, using administrative data, because of concerns about official figures. The ethnicity of both immigrants and emigrants for local areas was projected. Estimates were constructed of the ethnic group probabilities for internal in- and out-migration for LAs using 2001 Census data. These probabilities were assumed constant in the future, as migration was stable between 2001 and 2008. Five projections were produced. Two benchmark projections, using constant inputs from 2001-2, forecast the UK population would be 62 and 56 million in 2051.The official projection reports 77 million. The Trend projection, aligned to ONS assumptions projected 78 million for 2051. Using revised assumptions 80 million was projected in a fourth projection. When the model for emigration was changed the projected population was only 71 million. All projections showed ageing and dispersion of ethnic minorities. By 2051 the UK will have a larger, more diverse and integrated population.

For further information about the project, see documentation and the What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios ESRC award page.


Main Topics:

For full details of the individual files (and topics covered) within the study, see documentation files '6777_list_of_files.xlsx' and '6777_fileinformation.pdf' in the Documentation table below.

Users should note that this study is very large - c.8GB. Multiple files have been created for download, according to the type of compilation - benchef, bencher, trendef, uptapef and uptaper (see 6777_fileinformation.pdf for details). To obtain all files contained within the study, users should download all zip files.

London was by far the largest urban agglomeration in the United Kingdom in 2023, with an estimated population of 9.65 million people, more than three times as large as Manchester, the UK’s second-biggest urban agglomeration. The agglomerations of Birmingham and Leeds / Bradford had the third and fourth-largest populations respectively, while the biggest city in Scotland, Glasgow, was the fifth largest. Largest cities in Europe Two cities in Europe had larger urban areas than London, with the Russian capital Moscow having a population of almost 12.7 million. The city of Paris, located just over 200 miles away from London, was the second-largest city in Europe, with a population of more than 11.2 million people. Paris was followed by London in terms of population-size, and then by the Spanish cities of Madrid and Barcelona, at 6.75 million and 5.68 million people respectively. Russia's second-biggest city; St. Petersburg had a population of 5.56 million, followed by Rome at 4.3 million, and Berlin at 3.5 million. London’s population growth Throughout the 1980s, the population of London fluctuated from a high of 6.81 million people in 1981 to a low of 6.73 million inhabitants in 1988. During the 1990s, the population of London increased once again, growing from 6.8 million at the start of the decade to 7.15 million by 1999. London's population has continued to grow since the turn of the century, reaching a peak of 8.96 million people in 2019, and is forecast to reach 9.8 million by 2043.

The population of the United Kingdom in 2023 was estimated to be approximately 68.3 million in 2023, with almost 9.48 million people living in South East England. London had the next highest population, at over 8.9 million people, followed by the North West England at 7.6 million. With the UK's population generally concentrated in England, most English regions have larger populations than the constituent countries of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, which had populations of 5.5 million, 3.16 million, and 1.92 million respectively. English counties and cities The United Kingdom is a patchwork of various regional units, within England the largest of these are the regions shown here, which show how London, along with the rest of South East England had around 18 million people living there in this year. The next significant regional units in England are the 47 metropolitan and ceremonial counties. After London, the metropolitan counties of the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, and West Yorkshire were the biggest of these counties, due to covering the large urban areas of Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds respectively. Regional divisions in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland The smaller countries that comprise the United Kingdom each have different local subdivisions. Within Scotland these are called council areas whereas in Wales the main regional units are called unitary authorities. Scotland's largest Council Area by population is that of Glasgow City at over 622,000, while in Wales, it was the Cardiff Unitary Authority at around 372,000. Northern Ireland, on the other hand, has eleven local government districts, the largest of which is Belfast with a population of around 348,000.

In 2023, the population of the United Kingdom reached 68.3 million, compared with 67.6 million in 2022. The UK population has more than doubled since 1871 when just under 31.5 million lived in the UK and has grown by around 8.2 million since the start of the twenty-first century. For most of the twentieth century, the UK population steadily increased, with two noticeable drops in population occurring during World War One (1914-1918) and in World War Two (1939-1945). Demographic trends in postwar Britain After World War Two, Britain and many other countries in the Western world experienced a 'baby boom,' with a postwar peak of 1.02 million live births in 1947. Although the number of births fell between 1948 and 1955, they increased again between the mid-1950s and mid-1960s, with more than one million people born in 1964. Since 1964, however, the UK birth rate has fallen from 18.8 births per 1,000 people to a low of just 10.2 in 2020. As a result, the UK population has gotten significantly older, with the country's median age increasing from 37.9 years in 2001 to 40.7 years in 2022. What are the most populated areas of the UK? The vast majority of people in the UK live in England, which had a population of 57.7 million people in 2023. By comparison, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland had populations of 5.44 million, 3.13 million, and 1.9 million, respectively. Within England, South East England had the largest population, at over 9.38 million, followed by the UK's vast capital city of London, at 8.8 million. London is far larger than any other UK city in terms of urban agglomeration, with just four other cities; Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds, and Glasgow, boasting populations that exceed one million people.

The data collection contains population projections for UK ethnic groups and all local area by age (single year of age up to 100+) and sex. Included in the data set are also input data to the cohort component model that was used to project populations into the future-fertility rates, mortality rates, international migration flows and internal migration probabilities. Also included in data set are output data: Number of deaths, births and internal migrants. All data included are for the years 2011 to 2061. We have produced two ethnic population projections for UK local authorities, based on information on 2011 Census ethnic populations and 2010-2011-2012 ethnic components. Both projections align fertility and mortality assumptions to ONS assumptions. Where they differ is in the migration assumptions. In LEEDS L1 we employ internal migration rates for 2001 to 2011, including periods of boom and bust. We use a new assumption about international migration anticipating that the UK may leave the EU (BREXIT). In LEEDS L2 we use average internal migration rates for the 5 year period 2006-11 and the official international migration flow assumptions with a long term balance of +185 thousand per annum.

This project aims to understand and to forecast the ethnic transition in the United Kingdom's population at national and sub-national levels. The ethnic transition is the change in population composition from one dominated by the White British to much greater diversity. In the decade 2001-2011 the UK population grew strongly as a result of high immigration, increased fertility and reduced mortality. Both the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Leeds University estimated the growth or decline in the sixteen ethnic groups making up the UK's population in 2001. The 2011 Census results revealed that both teams had over-estimated the growth of the White British population and under-estimated the growth of the ethnic minority populations. The wide variation between our local authority projected populations in 2011 and the Census suggested inaccurate forecasting of internal migration. We propose to develop, working closely with ONS as our first external partner, fresh estimates of mid-year ethnic populations and their components of change using new data on the later years of the decade and new methods to ensure the estimates agree in 2011 with the Census. This will involve using population accounting theory and an adjustment technique known as iterative proportional fitting to generate a fully consistent set of ethnic population estimates between 2001 and 2011.

We will study, at national and local scales, the development of demographic rates for ethnic group populations (fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration). The ten year time series of component summary indicators and age-specific rates will provide a basis for modelling future assumptions for projections. We will, in our main projection, align the assumptions to the ONS 2012-based principal projection. The national assumptions will need conversion to ethnic groups and to local scale. The ten years of revised ethnic-specific component rates will enable us to study the relationships between national and local demographic trends. In addition, we will analyse a consistent time series of local authority internal migration. We cannot be sure, at this stage, how the national-local relationships for each ethnic group will be modelled but we will be able to test our models using the time series.

Of course, all future projections of the population are uncertain. We will therefore work to measure the uncertainty of component rates. The error distributions can be used to construct probability distributions of future populations via stochastic projections so that we can define confidence intervals around our projections. Users of projections are always interested in the impact of the component assumptions on future populations. We will run a set of reference projections to estimate the magnitude and direction of impact of international migrations assumptions (net effect of immigration less emigration), of internal migration assumptions (the net effect of in-migration less out-migration), of fertility assumptions compared with replacement level, of mortality assumptions compared with no change and finally the effect of the initial age distribution (i.e. demographic potential).

The outputs from the project will be a set of technical reports on each aspect of the research, journal papers submitted for peer review and a database of projection inputs and outputs available to users via the web. The demographic inputs will be subject to quality assurance by Edge Analytics, our second external partner. They will also help in disseminating these inputs to local government users who want to use them in their own ethnic projections. In sum, the project will show how a wide range of secondary data sources can be used in theoretically refined demographic...

The 2001 Area Classification of output areas is used to group together geographic areas according to key characteristics common to the population in that grouping. These groupings are called clusters, and are derived using 2001 population census data. This is a new classification produced using the same principles but a different statistical methodology from that used to produce the other area classifications.

This data package presents the data for the 24,140 Census Output Areas in Greater London but data for the UK is also available (see Download URL below).

For further guidance, advice and to see case studies using the 2001 OAC data, visit the OAC User Groups website: http://areaclassification.org.uk/

If you have any queries about or problems accessing any of the data please let Leeds University know: E-mail comments or queries to d.vickers@sheffield.ac.uk or visit their website.

*Please note that the Output Area cluster names (e.g. 'City Living') are not a national statistic and endorsed by ONS, these have been created and added by the University of Leeds to add further meaning to the classification.

This graph presents the population density of the ten leading business cities in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2014. London has a significant lead in the ranking as there are 1078 more people per km² than in Bristol. Leeds, at 687 people per km², is the least densely populated city on the list.

Cambridge was the fastest growing city in the United Kingdom between 2012 and 2022, with its population increasing by 17.9 percent. Peterborough, Milton Keynes and Exeter also grew quite fast, with their populations increasing by 15.4 percent, 15 percent, and 14.4 percent, respectively. Largest UK urban areas When looking at cities defined by their urban agglomerations, as of 2023, London had approximately 9.65 million people living there, far larger than any other city in the United Kingdom. The urban agglomeration around the city of Birmingham had a population of approximately 2.67 million, while the urban areas around Manchester and Leeds had populations of 2.79 and 1.92 million respectively. London not only dominated other UK cities in terms of its population, but in its importance to the UK economy. In 2022, the gross domestic product of Greater London was approximately 508.3 billion British pounds, compared with 90.8 billion for Greater Manchester, and 77 billion in the West Midlands Metropolitan Area centered around Birmingham. UK population growth In 2022, the overall population of the United Kingdom was estimated to have reached approximately 67.6 million, compared with around 58.9 million in 2000. Since 1970, the year with the highest population growth rate was 2016 when the population grew by around 0.86 percent, and was at its lowest in 1982 when it shrank by 0.12 percent. Although the UK's birth rate has declined considerably in recent years, immigration to the UK has been high enough to drive population growth in the UK, which has had a positive net migration rate since 1994.

This report presents findings from the third (wave 3) in a series of follow up reports to the 2017 Mental Health of Children and Young People (MHCYP) survey, conducted in 2022. The sample includes 2,866 of the children and young people who took part in the MHCYP 2017 survey. The mental health of children and young people aged 7 to 24 years living in England in 2022 is examined, as well as their household circumstances, and their experiences of education, employment and services and of life in their families and communities. Comparisons are made with 2017, 2020 (wave 1) and 2021 (wave 2), where possible, to monitor changes over time.

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.

The objectives of the project were :
to prepare the case for the ESRC/JISC purchase of 2001 Census datasets and to prepare the case for a Census Programme and suggest directions it might take;
to prepare options for ESRC/JISC on the dissemination of the datasets;
to prepare proposals to the Census Offices on Census questions, methods and products;
to prepare proposals to the Census Offices on collaborative ventures;
to advise on a strategy for negotiations with the Census Offices.

A similar survey, for the 1991 Census, was conducted in 1987 by Marsh, C. et al : the data from this study are held at the Data Archive under SN:2460.
Main Topics:

The dataset contains the responses of 140 academic users of census data on their views about the 2001 Census of population. Questions were asked under the following four themes :
1. Topics and questions proposed for the 2001 Census.

1. Proposed changes in concepts for the 2001 Census.
   
2. Proposed changes in outputs for the 2001 Census : Area Statistics, Samples of Anonymised Records (SARS), Migration Statistics, Workplace Statistics, the ONS Longitudinal Study - inclusion of the 2001 Census, boundary data, look up tables, flexible outputs from the 2001 Census.
   
3. ESRC/JISC Census Programme services : registration procedures, help with census data, documentation and training, methods of access, software for extraction and analysis of census data, shape of the ESRC/JISC Census Programme after 2001.
   
   Measurement Scales
   The main scale used was a five-part categorisation of usefulness/importance for the respondent's research :
   essential; highly desirable; of interest; very low priority; not of interest.

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.

Generation of individual and household level population data for 2001 census output areas in the United Kingdom (UK) has been undertaken by the Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science (MoSeS) node of the UK National Centre for e-Social Science.

The MoSeS project outlined an approach for creating an individual level demographic model, which involved selecting sets of Samples of Census 2001 Anonymised Records (SARs) to represent aggregate Census Area Statistics (CAS) populations for 2001. This initialised population would then be dynamically modelled or simulated over time.

The datasets created by integrating SARS and CAS form this study.

Further information is available from the Modelling and Simulation for E-Social Sciences ESRC Award webpage and the MoSeS project webpage.

Users should note that the Principal Investigators did not have access to non-anonymised census data and that the assignment of OAs is based on statistical analysis using published data and the SARS only.

Main Topics:

The study includes two zip files which unpack with a directory structure based on UK Output Area (OA) and Local Authority District (LAD) codes.

oa_isarhp_isarcep_1csv.zip: where the Individual Sample of Annonymised Record (ISAR) data is used to comprise the household population

uk_oa_hsarhp_isarcep_1.zip: where the Household Sample of Annonymised Record (HSAR) data is used to comprise the household population.

With these data it is possible to reconstruct population estimates for parts of the UK.

This graph presents the graduate population of the ten leading business cities in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2016. London and Leeds had a significant lead in the ranking, as 60% of both populations are graduates, compared to 31.6% in Edinburgh, Oxford and York.