Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for local authorities in England. 2022-based datasets are the latest projection.

Principal projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.

Open data for England principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022-based national population projections. Contains links to the principal and (where available) variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.

By 2047 the population of London is expected to reach 9.97 million people, an increase of almost 699,500 when compared with 2025. While there has been quite a steep rise in its population in recent years, London’s population growth was relatively stagnant throughout the 1980s and even decreased slightly towards the end of that decade. After peaking at 8.89 million in 2019, the population of London has fallen slightly, to 8.8 million by 2021. UK population forecast Like London, the population of the United Kingdom is forecast to continue to grow well into the middle of the century. By 2046, the population of the UK is estimated to be over 76.3 million people, an increase of over 20 million people when compared with the population figures for 1976. Additionally, the average age of the population is predicted to increase from 39.5 years in 2020 to 44.5 years by the mid-2040s, and continue to increase towards the end of the century. London looms large In the UK, London is by far the largest urban agglomeration in the country, dwarfing the UK's next largest cities of Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds. London also has a dominant economic position in the UK, with the city accounting for around a quarter of the total GDP in the country. The UK capital also has a far higher GDP per head than the rest of the county, at over ****** pounds in 2023, compared with the UK average of ****** pounds.

This graph shows the resident population projection of elderly people in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2050, by age group. There is expected to be an overall growth in the number of elderly people. It is expected that all age groups over the age of 60 are expected to increase in number; most substantially, those aged over 80 years.

This graph shows the resident population projection of middle aged people in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2050, by age group. There is expected to be an overall growth in the numbers of middle aged people, however certain age groups are expected to fall in number, such as those aged from 50 to 54 years and 55 to 59 years.

In 2047, the working age population of the United Kingdom is expected to be **** million, compared with **** million people of pensionable age. As a comparison, in 2022, there were approximately **** million people who were of working age, compared with twelve million pensioners.

The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales.

The datasets include summary workbooks with population and summary components of change as well as zip archives with the full detailed outputs from the models, including components of change by single year of age and sex.

The most recent set of trend-based population projections currently available are the 2022-based projections (August 2024). Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days.

For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post.

The 2022-based projections comprise three variants based on different periods of past migration patterns and assumed levels of future fertility rates.

Trend-based projections don't explicitly account for future housing delivery. For most local planning purposes we generally recommend the use of housing-led projections

These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here

* 14 July 2023 - following a minor update to the modelled population estimates series, we have made available an additional version of the projections based on these updated inputs. At this time we have no plans to update or replace the outputs and documentation published in January 2023. However, we recommend users looking to use the projections in analysis or as inputs to onward modelling consider using these updated outputs.

• Documentation page
• Back to projections homepage

This statistic shows the predicted population of the South East of England, United Kingdom (UK) from 2016 to 2041, based on the 2016 mid-year estimates. The figures show year on year growth, to a total population of approximately ** million by 2041 for this region.

United Kingdom UK: Population: Growth data was reported at 0.648 % in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.714 % for 2016. United Kingdom UK: Population: Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 0.352 % from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.849 % in 1962 and a record low of -0.036 % in 1982. United Kingdom UK: Population: Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage . Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship.; ; Derived from total population. Population source: (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision, (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.; Weighted average;

Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for regions in England. 2022-based datasets are the latest projection.

Potential future population size and structure based on assumed level of future fertility, mortality and migration.Available for all Local Authorities in the West Midlands Combined Authority.Projections are not available at Ward level. For ward level data see our population estimates dataset.

In 2020, the population of the United Kingdom was estimated to have grown by approximately 0.4 percent, with the population growing fastest in the South West and East Midlands, which reported growth rates of 0.6 percent in this year. By contrast, growth in Northern Ireland and Scotland was below the UK average, at just 0.1 percent and zero percent, respectively. Four countries of the UK Within the UK, South East England had the highest population of the regions that comprise the United Kingdom, at more than 9.37 million people. In terms of the four countries of the UK, England had by far the highest population at over 57.7 million people, compared with Scotland (5.5 million) Wales (3.13 million) and Northern Ireland (1.9 million people) which have comparatively smaller populations. Largest cities in the UK With 8.9 million people living there, London is one of the most heavily population regions of the UK, and by far the largest city. Other large cities in the UK include West Midlands urban area, centered around the city of Birmingham at 2.95 million people, along with Greater Manchester at 2.91 million, with these two cities generally considered as the main contenders for being the country's second-city.

The statistic shows the total population in the United Kingdom from 2015 to 2019, with projections up until 2025. The population grew steadily over this period.

Population of the United Kingdom

Despite a fertility rate just below the replacement rate, the United Kingdom’s population has been slowly but steadily growing, increasing by an average of 0.6 percent every year since 2002. The age distribution has remained roughly the same for the past ten years or so, with the share of the population over 65 years old seeing a slight increase as the baby boomer generation enters into that age bracket. That share is likely to continue growing slightly, as the United Kingdom has one of the highest life expectancies in the world.

The population of the island nation is predominantly white Christians, but a steady net influx of immigrants, part of a legacy of the wide-reaching former British Empire, has helped diversify the population. One of the largest ethnic minorities in the United Kingdom is that of residents of an Indian background, born either in the UK, India, or in other parts of the world. India itself is experiencing problems with rapid population growth, causing some of its population to leave the country in order to find employment. The United Kingdom’s relatively lower levels of unemployment and the historical connection between the two countries (which has also resulted in family connections between individuals) are likely reasons that make it a popular destination for Indian emigrants.

The GLA Demography Team offers a bespoke population projection service to London local authorities. Boroughs can request population projections based on their own choice of assumptions about future housing delivery. These assumptions are submitted to the team via a standard template. The resulting projections are referred to as the Borough Preferred Option (or BPO) and are commonly used to help support local planning and service delivery.

The GLA does not make the BPO projections and submitted housing trajectories publicly available or share them with anyone other than the commissioning borough. Boroughs wishing to publish BPO projections themselves are free to do so.

This service is offered as an optional, free of charge service to London authorities, and is intended to provide users with an alternative to the standard projections that the GLA publishes on the London Datastore.

Access to outputs

The BPO projections are shared with users via private pages on the London Datastore. These pages include all outputs produced under the service since 2019.

To access outputs, users must have a current Datastore account linked to their local government email address and contact the Demography Team to request permissions be granted for the individual pages relating to their local authority.

Notes on completing the development data template

What periods do the year labels in the template refer to?

The year labels in the template nominally refer to periods ending in the middle of that year (i.e. `2025` refers to the 12 month period ending June 30th 2025). However, development data is often readily available only for financial years and it is common to submit data on this basis, with financial year 2024/25 aligning with `2025` in the template.

Development trajectory

The cells in the template represent annual net changes in the number of dwellings.

The current template covers the period 2012-2041 and are pre-populated with estimated annual net dwelling changes for the period 2012-2019, based on modelling of data from the London Development Database.

For the 2022-based and subsequent projections, dwelling stock estimates are anchored to the results of the 2021 Census and it is not essential to include data for dwelling stock changes that occured prior to this point (i.e. up to and including '2021').

Past development data from 2022 up to the base year of the projections, affects the projected population in all future years as dwelling stock in the base year is used in the estimation of relationships between housing and population in the model.

We are not yet able to pre-populate templates with estimated dwelling changes for years after 2019. In future rounds of projections we intend to incorporate data from the Planning Data Hub.

Blank cells are treated as missing rather than no change, and data based on the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) will be substituted in its place. To indicate no net change in dwellings in a ward in a particular year, users must explicitly enter a zero in the relevant cell.

Self-contained and Non-self-contained development

Self-contained development should be used for standard residential development (e.g. new build/conversion).

Non-self-contained development should be used for development such as student accommodation. This should be added to the template as the equivalent of self-contained units (i.e. a ratio of non-self-contained to self-contained should be applied). The London Plan ratios are:

· 2.5:1 for student housing

· 1:1 for housing for older people (C2)

· 1.8:1 for all other non-self-contained housing

Requesting projections based on multiple different housing scenarios

While we are willing to try and accommodate requests for multiple sets of projections, capacity in the team is limited and there is no guarantee that we will be able to do so in a timely manner.

Please do not

• Add rows or columns to the template
• Change ward names or codes
• Include formulas or new formatting
• Add notes or comments to the template
• Return data in a different version of the template to those included here

Please return completed templates to:

<a href="mailto:demography@london.gov.uk"

The aims of this project were to:

• understand the demographic changes that United Kingdom local ethnic populations are presently experiencing and are likely to experience in the remainder of the 21st century
• understand the impact that international migration is having on the size and ethnic composition of UK local populations
• understand the role that differences in fertility between the UK's ethnic groups plays in shaping current and future trends
• understand the role that mortality differences between ethnic groups is playing in the changing demography of the UK's local populations
• understand how the ethnic diversity of UK local populations is changing and likely to change in the future
• deliver the projections as a resource for use by social science in the UK
• build capacity in the analysis of demographic change through the development of young and middle career researchers
• tap into the best practice internationally to benefit the UK social science community.

To achieve the project aims, the objectives were to:

• build projections of the populations of ethnic groups for UK local areas
• use the population projection model to explore alternative futures.

The project built a model for projecting the ethnic group populations of UK Local Authorities (LAs), which handles 352 LAs, 16 ethnic groups, 102 ages and 2 sexes. To drive the projections, estimates of the components of ethnic change were prepared for 2001-7. A new method produced UK estimates of ethnic life expectancy, ranging from 82 years for Chinese women to 77 for Pakistani. A future 2% decline in mortality per annum was assumed. Ethnic fertility estimates showed that only Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis had total fertility rates above replacement. Small declines in fertility were forecast. New estimates of the local distribution of immigration were made, using administrative data, because of concerns about official figures. The ethnicity of both immigrants and emigrants for local areas was projected. Estimates were constructed of the ethnic group probabilities for internal in- and out-migration for LAs using 2001 Census data. These probabilities were assumed constant in the future, as migration was stable between 2001 and 2008. Five projections were produced. Two benchmark projections, using constant inputs from 2001-2, forecast the UK population would be 62 and 56 million in 2051.The official projection reports 77 million. The Trend projection, aligned to ONS assumptions projected 78 million for 2051. Using revised assumptions 80 million was projected in a fourth projection. When the model for emigration was changed the projected population was only 71 million. All projections showed ageing and dispersion of ethnic minorities. By 2051 the UK will have a larger, more diverse and integrated population.

For further information about the project, see documentation and the What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios ESRC award page.