Today, globally, women of childbearing age have an average of approximately 2.2 children over the course of their lifetime. In pre-industrial times, most women could expect to have somewhere between five and ten live births throughout their lifetime; however, the demographic transition then sees fertility rates fall significantly. Looking ahead, it is believed that the global fertility rate will fall below replacement level in the 2050s, which will eventually lead to population decline when life expectancy plateaus. Recent decades Between the 1950s and 1970s, the global fertility rate was roughly five children per woman - this was partly due to the post-WWII baby boom in many countries, on top of already-high rates in less-developed countries. The drop around 1960 can be attributed to China's "Great Leap Forward", where famine and disease in the world's most populous country saw the global fertility rate drop by roughly 0.5 children per woman. Between the 1970s and today, fertility rates fell consistently, although the rate of decline noticeably slowed as the baby boomer generation then began having their own children. Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility, i.e. the number of children born per woman that a population needs for long-term stability, is approximately 2.1 children per woman. Populations may continue to grow naturally despite below-replacement level fertility, due to reduced mortality and increased life expectancy, however, these will plateau with time and then population decline will occur. It is believed that the global fertility rate will drop below replacement level in the mid-2050s, although improvements in healthcare and living standards will see population growth continue into the 2080s when the global population will then start falling.

The total fertility rate of the world has dropped from around 5 children per woman in 1950, to 2.2 children per woman in 2025, which means that women today are having fewer than half the number of children that women did 75 years ago. Replacement level fertility This change has come as a result of the global demographic transition, and is influenced by factors such as the significant reduction in infant and child mortality, reduced number of child marriages, increased educational and vocational opportunities for women, and the increased efficacy and availability of contraception. While this change has become synonymous with societal progress, it does have wide-reaching demographic impact - if the global average falls below replacement level (roughly 2.1 children per woman), as is expected to happen in the 2050s, then this will lead to long-term population decline on a global scale. Regional variations When broken down by continent, Africa is the only region with a fertility rate above the global average, and, alongside Oceania, it is the only region with a fertility rate above replacement level. Until the 1980s, the average woman in Africa could expect to have 6-7 children over the course of their lifetime, and there are still several countries in Africa where women can still expect to have 5 or more children in 2025. Historically, Europe has had the lowest fertility rates in the world over the past century, falling below replacement level in 1975. Europe's population has grown through a combination of migration and increasing life expectancy, however even high immigration rates could not prevent its population from going into decline in 2021.

This map shows the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime. Data from Population Reference Bureau's 2017 World Population Data Sheet. The world's total fertility rate reported in 2017 was 2.5 as a whole. Replacement-Level fertility is widely recognized as 2.0 children per woman, so as to "replace" each parent in the next generation. Countries depicted in pink have a total fertility rate below replacement level whereas countries depicted in teal have a total fertility rate above replacement level. In countries with very high child mortality rates, a replacement level of 2.1 could be used, since not every child will survive into their reproductive years. Determinants of Total Fertility Rate include: women's education levels and opportunities, marriage rates among women of childbearing age (generally defined as 15-49), contraceptive usage and method mix/effectiveness, infant & child mortality rates, share of population living in urban areas, the importance of children as part of the labor force (or cost/penalty to women's labor force options that having children poses), and religious and cultural norms, among many other factors. This map was made using the Global Population and Maternal Health Indicators layer.

Graph and download economic data for Fertility Rate, Total for the United States (SPDYNTFRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2023 about fertility, rate, and USA.

In 2025, there are six countries, all in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the average woman of childbearing age can expect to have between 5-6 children throughout their lifetime. In fact, of the 20 countries in the world with the highest fertility rates, Afghanistan and Yemen are the only countries not found in Sub-Saharan Africa. High fertility rates in Africa With a fertility rate of almost six children per woman, Chad is the country with the highest fertility rate in the world. Population growth in Chad is among the highest in the world. Lack of healthcare access, as well as food instability, political instability, and climate change, are all exacerbating conditions that keep Chad's infant mortality rates high, which is generally the driver behind high fertility rates. This situation is common across much of the continent, and, although there has been considerable progress in recent decades, development in Sub-Saharan Africa is not moving as quickly as it did in other regions. Demographic transition While these countries have the highest fertility rates in the world, their rates are all on a generally downward trajectory due to a phenomenon known as the demographic transition. The third stage (of five) of this transition sees birth rates drop in response to decreased infant and child mortality, as families no longer feel the need to compensate for lost children. Eventually, fertility rates fall below replacement level (approximately 2.1 children per woman), which eventually leads to natural population decline once life expectancy plateaus. In some of the most developed countries today, low fertility rates are creating severe econoic and societal challenges as workforces are shrinking while aging populations are placin a greater burden on both public and personal resources.

The cyclical fertility index represents the number of children that 15-year-olds would give life before age 49 if they adopted fertility by age group observed during that period. The cyclical fertility index is calculated here over a 5-year period, starting from the fertility rates of women aged 15 to 49. It is the sum of fertility rates per five-year age group multiplied by 5. Fertility rates by age group reflect in the numerator the average annual number of live births for women in a given age group. The denominator is the average for the period analysed of the populations on 1 July of women in this same age group. The cyclical fertility index is an indicator of population renewal that is not influenced by the age structure of the population, unlike the crude birth rate. It is therefore an excellent comparative indicator of the fertility of a population. Population renewal is ensured if the number of girls in the child generation is equal to the number of women in the parent generation. In the absence of mortality, a woman must give birth to 2.05 children (2.05 and not 2 because she is born 105 boys per 100 girls) to replace a generation, either herself and the father.

This project provides a comprehensive dataset of total fertility rates (TFR) and age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) for Mexico, covering the period from 1950 to 2070. The data is broken down by year, state, and age group, and includes key metrics such as total births and the total female population for each age group.In addition to the dataset, the project includes:A Python script designed to generate visualizations, such as the attached dumbbell chart, which compares TFR across time for individual states.A requirements.txt file specifying the necessary Python libraries for running the script.Both the population and birth data were sourced from the National Population Council of Mexico (CONAPO). The population data can be found here, and the birth data here.The attached dumbbell chart demonstrates TFR changes from 1970 to 2024, offering a clear visualization of fertility trends over time at the state level.This dataset and accompanying tools are valuable resources for demographic research, public policy analysis, and social studies focused on fertility trends and population dynamics in Mexico.

While the standard image of the nuclear family with two parents and 2.5 children has persisted in the American imagination, the number of births in the U.S. has steadily been decreasing since 1990, with about 3.6 million babies born in 2023. In 1990, this figure was 4.16 million. Birth and replacement rates A country’s birth rate is defined as the number of live births per 1,000 inhabitants, and it is this particularly important number that has been decreasing over the past few decades. The declining birth rate is not solely an American problem, with EU member states showing comparable rates to the U.S. Additionally, each country has what is called a “replacement rate.” The replacement rate is the rate of fertility needed to keep a population stable when compared with the death rate. In the U.S., the fertility rate needed to keep the population stable is around 2.1 children per woman, but this figure was at 1.67 in 2022. Falling birth rates Currently, there is much discussion as to what exactly is causing the birth rate to decrease in the United States. There seem to be several factors in play, including longer life expectancies, financial concerns (such as the economic crisis of 2008), and an increased focus on careers, all of which are causing people to wait longer to start a family. How international governments will handle falling populations remains to be seen, but what is clear is that the declining birth rate is a multifaceted problem without an easy solution.

In 2024, Monaco was the European country estimated to have the highest fertility rate. The country had a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. Other small countries such as Gibraltar or Montenegro also came towards the top of the list for 2024, while the large country with the highest fertility rate was France, with 1.64 children per woman. On the other hand, Ukraine had the lowest fertility rate, averaging around one child per woman.

Between 2010 and 2023, the fertility rate in Sweden decreased steadily, dropping to 1.5. The fertility rate is defined as the number of children that would be born or are likely to be born to a woman if she lives to the end of her reproductive years. A similar decline was visible for the crude birth rate, which in 2022 was down at 10 births per 1,000 inhabitants.

More immigrants than emigrants

Despite the decreasing fertility- and crude birth rate in Sweden, the population in Sweden continues to grow. More babies are born each year than people dying, which contributes to a growing population. However, the major reason behind the continued population growth is the positive inflow of immigrants. Few people are leaving the country, while many more migrants are arriving in Sweden.

Fertility rate in Europe

Even though the fertility rate in the country decreased over the last 10 years, Sweden had a higher fertility rate than many other countries in Europe in 2023. The Faroe Islands had the highest fertility rate, whereas Andorra had the lowest.

Het totale vruchtbaarheidscijfer vertegenwoordigt het aantal kinderen dat 15-jarige vrouwen vóór de leeftijd van 49 zouden baren als ze de vruchtbaarheid zouden adopteren per leeftijdsgroep die in die periode werd waargenomen. Het totale vruchtbaarheidscijfer wordt hier berekend over een periode van 5 jaar, op basis van de vruchtbaarheidscijfers van vrouwen van 15 tot 49 jaar. Het is de som van de vruchtbaarheidscijfers van vijfjarige leeftijdsgroepen vermenigvuldigd met 5. Vruchtbaarheidspercentages per leeftijdsgroep nemen het gemiddelde jaarlijkse aantal levendgeborenen voor vrouwen in een bepaalde leeftijdsgroep als teller. De noemer is het gemiddelde voor de geanalyseerde periode van de populaties op 1 juli van vrouwen in dezelfde leeftijdsgroep. Het totale vruchtbaarheidscijfer is een indicator van de bevolkingsomzet die niet wordt beïnvloed door de leeftijdsstructuur van de bevolking, in tegenstelling tot het ruwe geboortecijfer. Het is daarom een uitstekende vergelijkende indicator van de vruchtbaarheid van een populatie. De vernieuwing van de bevolking wordt gewaarborgd als het aantal meisjes in de generatie kinderen gelijk is aan het aantal vrouwen in de generatie ouders. Bij afwezigheid van sterfte is het daarom noodzakelijk voor een vrouw om 2,05 kinderen te baren (2,05 en niet 2 omdat er 105 jongens worden geboren voor elke 100 meisjes) om een generatie te vervangen, namelijk zichzelf en de vader.

In 2023, the average total fertility rate in Taiwan ranged at around **** children per woman over lifetime. This extremely low figure is not expected to increase over the coming years. Taiwan’s demographic development Taiwan was once known for its strong population growth. After the retreat of the Republican government to the island in 1949, the population grew quickly. However, during Taiwan’s rapid economic development thereafter, the fertility rate dropped substantially. This drastic change occurred in most East Asian countries as well, of which many have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world today. As a result, populations in many East Asian regions are already shrinking or are expected to do so soon.In Taiwan, population decreased in 2020 for the first time, and the declining trend is expected to accelerate in the years ahead. At the same time, life expectancy has increased considerably, and Taiwan’s population is now aging at fast pace, posing a huge challenge to the island’s social security net. Addressing challenges of an aging society Most east Asian countries could, until recently, afford generous public pensions and health care systems, but now need to adjust to their changing reality. Besides providing incentives to raise children, the Taiwanese government also tries to attract more immigrants by lowering requirements for permanent residency. As both strategies have been met with limited success, the focus remains on reforming the pension system. This is being done mainly by raising the retirement age, promoting late-age employment, increasing pension contributions, and lowering pension payments.

Following a spike to 2.5 children per woman in the mid-1960s (during the second wave of the post-WWII baby boom), Germany's fertility rate then fell sharply to around 1.5 children per woman in the 1970s, and it has fluctuated between 1.2 and 1.6 children per woman ever since. Germany's fertility rate has been below the natural replacement level of roughly 2.1 children per woman since 1970, meaning that long-term natural population growth is unsustainable. In fact, Germany has experienced a natural population decline in every year since 1972, and its population has only grown or been sustained at its current level through high net immigration rates.Find more statistics on other topics about Germany with key insights such as crude birth rate, life expectancy of women at birth, and total life expectancy at birth.

Almost 80% of the 4 billion projected increase in world population by 2100 comes from 37 Mid-African Countries (MACs), caused mostly by slow declines in Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Historically, TFR has declined in response to increases in wellbeing associated with economic development. We show that, when Infant Survival Rate (ISR, a proxy for wellbeing) has increased, MAC fertility has declined at the same rate, in relation to ISR, as it did in 61 comparable Other Developing Countries (ODCs) whose average fertility is close to replacement level. If MAC ISR were to increase at the historic rate of these ODCs, and TFR declined correspondingly, then the projected world population in 2100 would be decreasing and 1.1 billion lower than currently projected. Such rates of ISR increase, and TFR decrease, are quite feasible and have occurred in comparable ODCs. Increased efforts to improve the wellbeing of poor MAC populations are key.

In 2021, there were **** births per 1,000 people in Northern Ireland, compared with eleven in the previous year. Between 2000 and 2008, Northern Ireland's birth rate increased from **** to **** but started to decline gradually until 2012 when it dropped from **** to **** in just one year. During this provided time period, the birth rate in Northern Ireland was highest in 1971, when it was **** and was at its lowest in 2020 when there were just eleven births per 1,000 people. Falling birth rates in the UK For the United Kingdom as a whole, the birth rate fell to **** births per 1,000 people in 2020, before a slight uptick to **** in 2021. After a postwar peak of **** births per 1,000 people in 1964, the UK birth rate fell sharply to just **** by 1977. Between 1977 and 2012 the birth rate fluctuated between **** and ****, but declined in every year between 2012 and 2020. In 2021, the UK's fertility rate (the number of births per women) fell to just ****, compared with **** in 1964. Since 1973, the UK has fallen below the minimum replacement level fertility rate of ***, and without immigration would likely see its population decline in the long term. Global demographic trends The considerable decline in the UK's fertility rate in recent decades is not an isolated phenomenon. As of 2024, Africa was, at ****, the only continent to have a fertility rate higher than the global average of ****. Several countries, mainly in East Asia and Europe, have far lower fertility rates than the UK or the global average, however. South Korea provides the most dramatic example of this trend, with its fertility rate falling from **** in 1960 to just **** by 2020. By the *****, it is expected that, as Africa's fertility rate converges with the rest of the world, the global population will peak at around **** billion and start to decline.

Simulations of MCMC parameters and density distribution functions. (ZIP)

Historical chart and dataset showing Nigeria fertility rate by year from 1950 to 2025.

Live births by local authority of usual residence of mother, General Fertility Rates and Total Fertility Rates.

The general fertility rate (GFR) is the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44. Rates are based on the most up-to-date population estimates.

The General Fertility Rate (GFR) is the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44.

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of live children that a group of women would bear if they experienced the age-specific fertility rates of the calendar year in question throughout their childbearing lifespan.

The TFR has been calculated using the number of live births and the 2006 mid-year population estimates (sub-nationally) and the 2006-based 2007 projections (nationally) for women by single year of age. This generally produces a better match of births to those at risk of having births. However, local authority level population estimates are only considered reliable in five-year age bands. Thus, especially in small local authorities, it should be noted that rates computed using single year of age data may produce spurious results.

City of London has been grouped with Hackney after 2004.

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The past century of increases in human population and resource consumption has produced some undesirable effects, ranging from environmental degradation to climate change to political unrest. We are accustomed to seeing these dependent variables charted with time on the x-axis. But this study presents metrics of biodiversity, consumption, and pollution and their extremely strong correlations when charted against human population size. Then we suggest that a more rapid yet non-coercive lowering of global Total Fertility Rates to 1.75 by 2050, and holding there, will produce many benefits for current and future generations of our own species and for nature. Among these benefits are reduced CO2 emissions, habitat recovery, protection of wild species, and reduced conflict over scarce resources.

BackgroundKawasaki disease (KD) is a common cause of acquired paediatric heart disease in developed countries. KD was first identified in the 1960s in Japan, and has been steadily increasing since it was first reported. The aetiology of KD has not been defined, but is assumed to be infection-related. The present study sought to identify the factor(s) that mediate the geographical variation and chronological increase of KD in Japan.Methods and FindingsBased upon data reported between 1979 and 2010 from all 47 prefectures in Japan, the incidence and mean patient age at the onset of KD were estimated. Using spatial and time-series analyses, incidence and mean age were regressed against climatic/socioeconomic variables. Both incidence and mean age of KD were inversely correlated with the total fertility rate (TFR; i.e., the number of children that would be born to one woman). The extrapolation of a time-series regressive model suggested that KD emerged in the 1960s because of a dramatic decrease in TFR in the 1940s through the 1950s.ConclusionsMean patient age is an inverse surrogate for the hazard of contracting the aetiologic agent. Therefore, the observed negative correlation between mean patient age and TFR suggests that a higher TFR is associated with KD transmission. This relationship may be because a higher TFR facilitates sibling-to-sibling transmission. Additionally, the observed inverse correlation between incidence and TFR implies a paradoxical “negative” correlation between the incidence and the hazard of contracting the aetiologic agent. It was hypothesized that a decreasing TFR resulted in a reduced hazard of contracting the agent for KD, thereby increasing KD incidence.