As of December 30, 2024, 14 economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of 1,370 percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with -350 percent; and Russia with -273 percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

As of January 7, 2025, the U.S. bond market displayed a positive spread of 37.8 basis points between 10-year and 2-year yields, indicating long-term rates above short-term ones. The 5-year versus 2-year spred and the 2-year versus 1-year spread were also positive, at 16.5 and at 11.8 basis points.

Due to financial unrest caused by the coronavirus outbreak in March 2020, the yield of ten-year governments in the Netherlands dropped significantly. During the last quarter 2021, the yield on 10-year government bonds was on average -0.26 percent. The beginning of 2022 saw the start of a positive yield with the rate resting at an average of 2.79 percent as of the second quarter of 2024. A ten-year government bond, or treasury note, is a debt obligation issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered to be a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. Investors track them, however, for several reasons. First, these bonds are the benchmark that guides other financial interest rates, such as fixed mortgage rates. Second, their yield will tell how investors feel about the economy. The higher the yield on a ten-year government bond, the better the economic outlook.