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TwitterCOVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Correction on 6/1/2020Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Reasons for undertaking this work:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-30 days + 5% from past 31-56 days - total deaths.We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source used as basis:Stephen A. Lauer, MS, PhD *; Kyra H. Grantz, BA *; Qifang Bi, MHS; Forrest K. Jones, MPH; Qulu Zheng, MHS; Hannah R. Meredith, PhD; Andrew S. Azman, PhD; Nicholas G. Reich, PhD; Justin Lessler, PhD. 2020. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine DOI: 10.7326/M20-0504.New Cases per Day (NCD) = Measures the daily spread of COVID-19. This is the basis for all rates. Back-casting revisions: In the Johns Hopkins’ data, the structure is to provide the cumulative number of cases per day, which presumes an ever-increasing sequence of numbers, e.g., 0,0,1,1,2,5,7,7,7, etc. However, revisions do occur and would look like, 0,0,1,1,2,5,7,7,6. To accommodate this, we revised the lists to eliminate decreases, which make this list look like, 0,0,1,1,2,5,6,6,6.Reporting Interval: In the early weeks, Johns Hopkins' data provided reporting every day regardless of change. In late April, this changed allowing for days to be skipped if no new data was available. The day was still included, but the value of total cases was set to Null. The processing therefore was updated to include tracking of the spacing between intervals with valid values.100 News Cases in a day as a spike threshold: Empirically, this is based on COVID-19’s rate of spread, or r0 of ~2.5, which indicates each case will infect between two and three other people. There is a point at which each administrative area’s capacity will not have the resources to trace and account for all contacts of each patient. Thus, this is an indicator of uncontrolled or epidemic trend. Spiking activity in combination with the rate of new cases is the basis for determining whether an area has a spreading or epidemic trend (see below). Source used as basis:World Health Organization (WHO). 16-24 Feb 2020. Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Obtained online.Mean of Recent Tail of NCD = Empirical, and a COVID-19-specific basis for establishing a recent trend. The recent mean of NCD is taken from the most recent fourteen days. A minimum of 21 days of cases is required for analysis but cannot be considered reliable. Thus, a preference of 42 days of cases ensures much higher reliability. This analysis is not explanatory and thus, merely represents a likely trend. The tail is analyzed for the following:Most recent 2 days: In terms of likelihood, this does not mean much, but can indicate a reason for hope and a basis to share positive change that is not yet a trend. There are two worthwhile indicators:Last 2 days count of new cases is less than any in either the past five or 14 days. Past 2 days has only one or fewer new cases – this is an extremely positive outcome if the rate of testing has continued at the same rate as the previous 5 days or 14 days. Most recent 5 days: In terms of likelihood, this is more meaningful, as it does represent at short-term trend. There are five worthwhile indicators:Past five days is greater than past 2 days and past 14 days indicates the potential of the past 2 days being an aberration. Past five days is greater than past 14 days and less than past 2 days indicates slight positive trend, but likely still within peak trend time frame.Past five days is less than the past 14 days. This means a downward trend. This would be an
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The dataset is constantly updated and synced hourly to ensure up-to-date information. With over several columns available for analysis and exploration purposes, users can extract valuable insights from this extensive dataset.
Some of the key metrics covered in the dataset include:
Vaccinations: The dataset covers total vaccinations administered worldwide as well as breakdowns of people vaccinated per hundred people and fully vaccinated individuals per hundred people.
Testing & Positivity: Information on total tests conducted along with new tests conducted per thousand people is provided. Additionally, details on positive rate (percentage of positive Covid-19 tests out of all conducted) are included.
Hospital & ICU: Data on ICU patients and hospital patients are available along with corresponding figures normalized per million people. Weekly admissions to intensive care units and hospitals are also provided.
Confirmed Cases: The number of confirmed Covid-19 cases globally is captured in both absolute numbers as well as normalized values representing cases per million people.
5.Confirmed Deaths: Total confirmed deaths due to Covid-19 worldwide are provided with figures adjusted for population size (total deaths per million).
6.Reproduction Rate: The estimated reproduction rate (R) indicates the contagiousness of the virus within a particular country or region.
7.Policy Responses: Besides healthcare-related metrics, this comprehensive dataset includes policy responses implemented by countries or regions such as lockdown measures or travel restrictions.
8.Other Variables of InterestThe data encompasses various socioeconomic factors that may influence Covid-19 outcomes including population density,membership in a continent,gross domestic product(GDP)per capita;
For demographic factors: -Age Structure : percentage populations aged 65 and older,aged (70)older,median age -Gender-specific factors: Percentage of female smokers -Lifestyle-related factors: Diabetes prevalence rate and extreme poverty rate
- Excess Mortality: The dataset further provides insights into excess mortality rates, indicating the percentage increase in deaths above the expected number based on historical data.
The dataset consists of numerous columns providing specific information for analysis, such as ISO code for countries/regions, location names,and units of measurement for different parameters.
Overall,this dataset serves as a valuable resource for researchers, analysts, and policymakers seeking to explore various aspects related to Covid-19
Introduction:
Understanding the Basic Structure:
- The dataset consists of various columns containing different data related to vaccinations, testing, hospitalization, cases, deaths, policy responses, and other key variables.
- Each row represents data for a specific country or region at a certain point in time.
Selecting Desired Columns:
- Identify the specific columns that are relevant to your analysis or research needs.
- Some important columns include population, total cases, total deaths, new cases per million people, and vaccination-related metrics.
Filtering Data:
- Use filters based on specific conditions such as date ranges or continents to focus on relevant subsets of data.
- This can help you analyze trends over time or compare data between different regions.
Analyzing Vaccination Metrics:
- Explore variables like total_vaccinations, people_vaccinated, and people_fully_vaccinated to assess vaccination coverage in different countries.
- Calculate metrics such as people_vaccinated_per_hundred or total_boosters_per_hundred for standardized comparisons across populations.
Investigating Testing Information:
- Examine columns such as total_tests, new_tests, and tests_per_case to understand testing efforts in various countries.
- Calculate rates like tests_per_case to assess testing efficiency or identify changes in testing strategies over time.
Exploring Hospitalization and ICU Data:
- Analyze variables like hosp_patients, icu_patients, and hospital_beds_per_thousand to understand healthcare systems' strain.
- Calculate rates like icu_patients_per_million or hosp_patients_per_million for cross-country comparisons.
Assessing Covid-19 Cases and Deaths:
- Analyze variables like total_cases, new_ca...
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These data files contain information about COVID-19 testing rate and test positivity, by country and by region. They are updated weekly.
The figures are based on multiple data sources. The main source is data submitted by Member States to the European Surveillance System (TESSy). When not available, ECDC compiles data from public online sources. EU/EEA Member States report in TESSy all tests performed (i.e. both PCR and antigen tests).
Disclaimer: The data compiled from public online sources have been automatically or manually retrieved (‘web-scraped’) on a daily basis. It should be noted that there are limitations to this type of data including that definitions vary and the data collection process requires constant adaptation to avoid to interrupted time series (i.e. due to modification of website pages, types of data).
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
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Covid-19 Data collected from various sources on the internet. This dataset has daily level information on the number of affected cases, deaths, and recovery from the 2019 novel coronavirus. Please note that this is time-series data and so the number of cases on any given day is the cumulative number.
The dataset includes 28 files scrapped from various data sources mainly the John Hopkins GitHub repository, the ministry of health affairs India, worldometer, and Our World in Data website. The details of the files are as follows
countries-aggregated.csv
A simple and cleaned data with 5 columns with self-explanatory names.
-covid-19-daily-tests-vs-daily-new-confirmed-cases-per-million.csv
A time-series data of daily test conducted v/s daily new confirmed case per million. Entity column represents Country name while code represents ISO code of the country.
-covid-contact-tracing.csv
Data depicting government policies adopted in case of contact tracing. 0 -> No tracing, 1-> limited tracing, 2-> Comprehensive tracing.
-covid-stringency-index.csv
The nine metrics used to calculate the Stringency Index are school closures; workplace closures; cancellation of public events; restrictions on public gatherings; closures of public transport; stay-at-home requirements; public information campaigns; restrictions on internal movements; and international travel controls. The index on any given day is calculated as the mean score of the nine metrics, each taking a value between 0 and 100. A higher score indicates a stricter response (i.e. 100 = strictest response).
-covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita.csv
A total number of vaccination doses administered per 100 people in the total population. This is counted as a single dose, and may not equal the total number of people vaccinated, depending on the specific dose regime (e.g. people receive multiple doses).
-covid-vaccine-willingness-and-people-vaccinated-by-country.csv
Survey who have not received a COVID vaccine and who are willing vs. unwilling vs. uncertain if they would get a vaccine this week if it was available to them.
-covid_india.csv
India specific data containing the total number of active cases, recovered and deaths statewide.
-cumulative-deaths-and-cases-covid-19.csv
A cumulative data containing death and daily confirmed cases in the world.
-current-covid-patients-hospital.csv
Time series data containing a count of covid patients hospitalized in a country
-daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day.csv
Daily test conducted per 1000 people in a running week average.
-face-covering-policies-covid.csv
Countries are grouped into five categories:
1->No policy
2->Recommended
3->Required in some specified shared/public spaces outside the home with other people present, or some situations when social distancing not possible
4->Required in all shared/public spaces outside the home with other people present or all situations when social distancing not possible
5->Required outside the home at all times regardless of location or presence of other people
-full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-thousand-map.csv
Full list of total tests conducted per 1000 people.
-income-support-covid.csv
Income support captures if the government is covering the salaries or providing direct cash payments, universal basic income, or similar, of people who lose their jobs or cannot work. 0->No income support, 1->covers less than 50% of lost salary, 2-> covers more than 50% of the lost salary.
-internal-movement-covid.csv
Showing government policies in restricting internal movements. Ranges from 0 to 2 where 2 represents the strictest.
-international-travel-covid.csv
Showing government policies in restricting international movements. Ranges from 0 to 2 where 2 represents the strictest.
-people-fully-vaccinated-covid.csv
Contains the count of fully vaccinated people in different countries.
-people-vaccinated-covid.csv
Contains the total count of vaccinated people in different countries.
-positive-rate-daily-smoothed.csv
Contains the positivity rate of various countries in a week running average.
-public-gathering-rules-covid.csv
Restrictions are given based on the size of public gatherings as follows:
0->No restrictions
1 ->Restrictions on very large gatherings (the limit is above 1000 people)
2 -> gatherings between 100-1000 people
3 -> gatherings between 10-100 people
4 -> gatherings of less than 10 people
-school-closures-covid.csv
School closure during Covid.
-share-people-fully-vaccinated-covid.csv
Share of people that are fully vaccinated.
-stay-at-home-covid.csv
Countries are grouped into four categories:
0->No measures
1->Recommended not to leave the house
2->Required to not leave the house with exceptions for daily exercise, grocery shopping, and ‘essent...
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Daily official UK Covid data. The data is available per country (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) and for different regions in England. The different regions are split into two different files as part of the data is directly gathered by the NHS (National Health Service). The files that contain the word 'nhsregion' in their name, include data related to hospitals only, such as number of admissions or number of people in respirators. The files containing the word 'region' in their name, include the rest of the data, such as number of cases, number of vaccinated people or number of tests performed per day. The next paragraphs describe the columns for the different file types.
Files related to regions (word 'region' included in the file name) have the following columns: - "date": date in YYYY-MM-DD format - "area type": type of area covered in the file (region or nation) - "area name": name of area covered in the file (region or nation name) - "daily cases": new cases on a given date - "cum cases": cumulative cases - "new deaths 28days": new deaths within 28 days of a positive test - "cum deaths 28days": cumulative deaths within 28 days of a positive test - "new deaths_60days": new deaths within 60 days of a positive test - "cum deaths 60days": cumulative deaths within 60 days of a positive test - "new_first_episode": new first episodes by date - "cum_first_episode": cumulative first episodes by date - "new_reinfections": new reinfections by specimen data - "cum_reinfections": cumualtive reinfections by specimen data - "new_virus_test": new virus tests by date - "cum_virus_test": cumulative virus tests by date - "new_pcr_test": new PCR tests by date - "cum_pcr_test": cumulative PCR tests by date - "new_lfd_test": new LFD tests by date - "cum_lfd_test": cumulative LFD tests by date - "test_roll_pos_pct": percentage of unique case positivity by date rolling sum - "test_roll_people": unique people tested by date rolling sum - "new first dose": new people vaccinated with a first dose - "cum first dose": cumulative people vaccinated with a first dose - "new second dose": new people vaccinated with a first dose - "cum second dose": cumulative people vaccinated with a first dose - "new third dose": new people vaccinated with a booster or third dose - "cum third dose": cumulative people vaccinated with a booster or third dose
Files related to countries (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales) have the above columns and also: - "new admissions": new admissions, - "cum admissions": cumulative admissions, - "hospital cases": patients in hospitals, - "ventilator beds": COVID occupied mechanical ventilator beds - "trans_rate_min": minimum transmission rate (R) - "trans_rate_max": maximum transmission rate (R) - "trans_growth_min": transmission rate growth min - "trans_growth_max": transmission rate growth max
Files related to nhsregion (word 'nhsregion' included in the file name) have the following columns: - "new admissions": new admissions, - "cum admissions": cumulative admissions, - "hospital cases": patients in hospitals, - "ventilator beds": COVID occupied mechanical ventilator beds - "trans_rate_min": minimum transmission rate (R) - "trans_rate_max": maximum transmission rate (R) - "trans_growth_min": transmission rate growth min - "trans_growth_max": transmission rate growth max
It's worth noting that the dataset hasn't been cleaned and it needs cleaning. Also, different files have different null columns. This isn't an error in the dataset but the way different countries and regions report the data.
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Trends in Covid positive rate. The latest data for over 100 countries around the world.
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TwitterAs of March 10, 2023, the state with the highest rate of COVID-19 cases was Rhode Island followed by Alaska. Around 103.9 million cases have been reported across the United States, with the states of California, Texas, and Florida reporting the highest numbers of infections.
From an epidemic to a pandemic The World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. The term pandemic refers to multiple outbreaks of an infectious illness threatening multiple parts of the world at the same time; when the transmission is this widespread, it can no longer be traced back to the country where it originated. The number of COVID-19 cases worldwide is roughly 683 million, and it has affected almost every country in the world.
The symptoms and those who are most at risk Most people who contract the virus will suffer only mild symptoms, such as a cough, a cold, or a high temperature. However, in more severe cases, the infection can cause breathing difficulties and even pneumonia. Those at higher risk include older persons and people with pre-existing medical conditions, including diabetes, heart disease, and lung disease. Those aged 85 years and older have accounted for around 27 percent of all COVID deaths in the United States, although this age group makes up just two percent of the total population
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The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a significant global health threat since January 2020. Policies to reduce human mobility have been recognized to effectively control the spread of COVID-19; although the relationship between mobility, policy implementation, and virus spread remains contentious, with no clear pattern for how countries classify each other, and determine the destinations to- and from which to restrict travel. In this rapid review, we identified country classification schemes for high-risk COVID-19 areas and associated policies which mirrored the dynamic situation in 2020, with the aim of identifying any patterns that could indicate the effectiveness of such policies. We searched academic databases, including PubMed, Scopus, medRxiv, Google Scholar, and EMBASE. We also consulted web pages of the relevant government institutions in all countries. This rapid review's searches were conducted between October 2020 and December 2021. Web scraping of policy documents yielded additional 43 country reports on high-risk area classification schemes. In 43 countries from which relevant reports were identified, six issued domestic classification schemes. International classification schemes were issued by the remaining 38 countries, and these mainly used case incidence per 100,000 inhabitants as key indicator. The case incidence cut-off also varied across the countries, ranging from 20 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the past 7 days to more than 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the past 28 days. The criteria used for defining high-risk areas varied across countries, including case count, positivity rate, composite risk scores, community transmission and satisfactory laboratory testing. Countries either used case incidence in the past 7, 14 or 28 days. The resulting policies included restrictions on internal movement and international travel. The quarantine policies can be summarized into three categories: (1) 14 days self-isolation, (2) 10 days self-isolation and (3) 14 days compulsory isolation.
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Daily global COVID-19 data for all countries, provided by Johns Hopkins University (JHU) Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE). If you want to use the update version of the data, you can use our daily updated data with the help of api key by entering it via Altadata.
In this data product, you may find the latest and historical global daily data on the COVID-19 pandemic for all countries.
The COVID‑19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‑19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2). The outbreak was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020 and a pandemic on 11 March. As of 12 August 2020, more than 20.2 million cases of COVID‑19 have been reported in more than 188 countries and territories, resulting in more than 741,000 deaths; more than 12.5 million people have recovered.
The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center is a continuously updated source of COVID-19 data and expert guidance. They aggregate and analyze the best data available on COVID-19 - including cases, as well as testing, contact tracing and vaccine efforts - to help the public, policymakers and healthcare professionals worldwide respond to the pandemic.
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Comparison of differences in COVID-19 Testing Index between countries and states with different testing and tracing policies, geographical settings, forms of government and economic development status (n = 147).
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COVID-19 Testing Index (CovTI) and sub-indices a) among top 15 countries and territories assessed (n = 165).
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The downloadable data file contains information about the volume of COVID-19 sequencing, the number and percentage distribution of variants of concern (VOC) by week and country. Each row contains the corresponding data for a country, variant and week (the data are in long format). The file is updated weekly. You may use the data in line with ECDC’s copyright policy and with GISAID’s data usage policy. We gratefully acknowledge both the originating and submitting laboratories for the sequence data in GISAID EpiCoV on which these outputs are partially based.
Available data on the volume of COVID-19 sequencing, the number and percentage distribution of VOC for each country, week and variant submitted since 2020-W40 to the GISAID EpiCoV database (https://www.gisaid.org/) and TESSy (as either case-based or aggregate data) are displayed. Where countries have submitted data to both TESSy case-based and aggregate data record types in the same week preference is given to the record type with a valid denominator (see below); if both have a valid denominator the record type with the largest number of sequences reported is selected.
The number of weekly cases per used to estimate the proportion of cases sequenced per week is based on data collected by ECDC Epidemic Intelligence. The information sources are Ministries of Health or National Public Health Institutes (websites, twitter official accounts or Facebook official accounts), and the obtained data is systematically cross checked with data from WHO. More information is available at https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/data-collection.
The 14-day notification rate of newly reported COVID-19 cases is based on data collected by the ECDC Epidemic Intelligence from various sources and are affected by the local testing strategy, laboratory capacity and the effectiveness of surveillance systems. Comparing the epidemiological situation regarding COVID-19 between countries and subnational regions should therefore not be based on these rates alone. However, at the individual country or regional level, this indicator may be useful for monitoring the national situation over time.
Testing policies and the number of tests performed per 100 000 persons, vary markedly across the EU/EEA. More extensive testing will inevitably lead to more cases being detected. The 14-day notification rate of new COVID-19 cases should be used in combination with other factors including testing policies, number of tests performed, test positivity, excess mortality and rates of hospital and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, when analysing the epidemiological situation in a country. Most of these indicators are presented for EU/EEA Member States in the Country Overview report.
Even when using several indicators in combination, comparisons between countries should be done with caution and relevant epidemiological expertise.
Covid-19 variants study and analysis
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TwitterA survey of people from 30 different countries around the world found that mental health was the biggest health problem respondents said was facing their country in 2025. Other health problems reported by respondents included cancer, stress, and obesity. The COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic impacted almost every country in the world and was the biggest global health crisis in recent history. It resulted in hundreds of millions of cases and millions of deaths, causing unprecedented disruption in health care systems. Lockdowns imposed in many countries to halt the spread of the virus also resulted in a rise of mental health issues as feelings of stress, isolation, and hopelessness arose. However, vaccines to combat the virus were developed at record speed, and many countries have now vaccinated large shares of their population. Nevertheless, in 2025, six percent of respondents still stated that COVID-19 was the biggest health problem facing their country. Mental health issues One side effect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a focus on mental health around the world. The two most common mental health issues worldwide are anxiety disorders and depression. In 2021, it was estimated that around 4.4 percent of the global population had an anxiety disorder, while four percent suffered from depression. Rates of depression are higher among females than males, with some 4.3 percent of females suffering from depression, compared to 2.9 percent of men. However, rates of suicide in most countries are higher among men than women. One positive outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic and the spotlight it shined on mental health may be a decrease in stigma surrounding mental health issues and seeking help for such issues. This would be a positive development, as many people around the world do not or cannot receive the necessary treatment they need for their mental health.
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COVID-19: Testing: Positivity Rate (Last 7 days): Indonesia data was reported at 0.655 % in 28 Oct 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.655 % for 27 Oct 2023. COVID-19: Testing: Positivity Rate (Last 7 days): Indonesia data is updated daily, averaging 3.714 % from Dec 2021 (Median) to 28 Oct 2023, with 421 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 21.308 % in 23 Nov 2022 and a record low of 0.090 % in 13 Dec 2021. COVID-19: Testing: Positivity Rate (Last 7 days): Indonesia data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Health. The data is categorized under Indonesia Premium Database’s Health Sector – Table ID.HLB020: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19): Covid Situation (Discontinued).
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Indonesia COVID-19: Testing: Positivity Rate (Last 7 days): West Java data was reported at 0.543 % in 28 Oct 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.543 % for 27 Oct 2023. Indonesia COVID-19: Testing: Positivity Rate (Last 7 days): West Java data is updated daily, averaging 3.435 % from Dec 2021 (Median) to 28 Oct 2023, with 421 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 18.503 % in 26 Nov 2022 and a record low of 0.110 % in 13 Dec 2021. Indonesia COVID-19: Testing: Positivity Rate (Last 7 days): West Java data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Health. The data is categorized under Indonesia Premium Database’s Health Sector – Table ID.HLB022: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19): Covid Situation: Testing: by Province (Discontinued).
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The global health crisis initiated by the COVID-19 pandemic triggered unparalleled economic upheavals. In this comprehensive study of 16 countries categorized by their infection rates, we scrutinize the impact of a range of variables on stock market indices and calculate four critical ratios derived from those variables. Our regression analyses reveal striking differences in how the variables influenced stock indices in countries with low and high infection rates. Notably, in countries with low infection rates, all variables exhibited significant effects on stock returns. An increase in infection numbers and fatalities correlated with greater stock market declines, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to the health and economic risks posed by the pandemic. Recovery and testing rates also displayed positive associations with stock returns, reflecting investor optimism concerning potential recovery scenarios. Conversely, nations grappling with high infection rates experienced notably weaker effects from these variables. Although fatalities had a negative impact on stock indices, other factors, including recoveries, infections, and testing rates, did not result in significant effects. This suggests the likelihood that markets in high-infection countries had likely factored pandemic conditions into their pricing, thereby reducing the immediate impact of these metrics on stock returns. Our findings underscore the intricacies of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on stock markets and highlight the importance of tailored strategies and policies for distinct country categories. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers and investors navigating financial markets during global health crises and preparing for future epidemics.
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This dataset merges three distinct data sources to explore the relationship between COVID-19 death rates, vaccination efforts, and public sentiment on Twitter from December 25, 2020 to March 29, 2022. It includes 2,000 cleaned rows with 16 variables, created by combining global health statistics and social media sentiment data.
COVID-19 Deaths Data (scraped from Worldometer - COVID-19 Deaths via BeautifulSoup):
Date: Date of recorddaily_increase_percent: % change in deaths from previous daySeason: Derived from date (Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall)Tweet Sentiment Data : COVID Vaccine Tweets Dataset
Date: Tweet timestamptext_sentiment: Sentiment label (positive, neutral, negative) from NLTK’s SentimentIntensityAnalyzeruser_verified: Whether the user is verifieduser_since_days: Age of the Twitter account (in days)country: Cleaned user locationVaccination Data : Vaccination Dataset
Date: Date of recordtotal_vaccinations_per_hundred: Doses per 100 peopledaily_vaccinations: Daily dose countvaccine_group: Grouped vaccine type (e.g., mRNA, Viral Vector)country: Country nameDate and countrySeason, user_since_days, vaccine_groupThis dataset was used in a final data science project to:
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Indonesia COVID-19: Testing: Positivity Rate per Week: Riau data was reported at 0.556 % in 25 Oct 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.556 % for 24 Oct 2023. Indonesia COVID-19: Testing: Positivity Rate per Week: Riau data is updated daily, averaging 0.929 % from Dec 2021 (Median) to 25 Oct 2023, with 393 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 16.468 % in 25 Nov 2022 and a record low of 0.023 % in 02 Jun 2022. Indonesia COVID-19: Testing: Positivity Rate per Week: Riau data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Health. The data is categorized under Indonesia Premium Database’s Health Sector – Table ID.HLB022: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19): Covid Situation: Testing: by Province (Discontinued).
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Differences in COVID-19 testing and tracing across countries, as well as changes in testing within each country over time, make it difficult to estimate the true (population) infection rate based on the confirmed number of cases obtained through RNA viral testing. We applied a backcasting approach to estimate a distribution for the true (population) cumulative number of infections (infected and recovered) for 15 developed countries. Our sample comprised countries with similar levels of medical care and with populations that have similar age distributions. Monte Carlo methods were used to robustly sample parameter uncertainty. We found a strong and statistically significant negative relationship between the proportion of the population who test positive and the implied true detection rate. Despite an overall improvement in detection rates as the pandemic has progressed, our estimates showed that, as at 31 August 2020, the true number of people to have been infected across our sample of 15 countries was 6.2 (95% CI: 4.3–10.9) times greater than the reported number of cases. In individual countries, the true number of cases exceeded the reported figure by factors that range from 2.6 (95% CI: 1.8–4.5) for South Korea to 17.5 (95% CI: 12.2–30.7) for Italy.
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Indonesia COVID-19: Testing: Positivity Rate (Last 7 days): West Papua data was reported at 1.205 % in 23 Jun 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.205 % for 22 Jun 2023. Indonesia COVID-19: Testing: Positivity Rate (Last 7 days): West Papua data is updated daily, averaging 2.970 % from Dec 2021 (Median) to 23 Jun 2023, with 375 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 26.984 % in 01 May 2023 and a record low of 0.179 % in 19 May 2022. Indonesia COVID-19: Testing: Positivity Rate (Last 7 days): West Papua data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Health. The data is categorized under Indonesia Premium Database’s Health Sector – Table ID.HLB022: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19): Covid Situation: Testing: by Province (Discontinued).
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TwitterCOVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Correction on 6/1/2020Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Reasons for undertaking this work:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-30 days + 5% from past 31-56 days - total deaths.We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source used as basis:Stephen A. Lauer, MS, PhD *; Kyra H. Grantz, BA *; Qifang Bi, MHS; Forrest K. Jones, MPH; Qulu Zheng, MHS; Hannah R. Meredith, PhD; Andrew S. Azman, PhD; Nicholas G. Reich, PhD; Justin Lessler, PhD. 2020. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine DOI: 10.7326/M20-0504.New Cases per Day (NCD) = Measures the daily spread of COVID-19. This is the basis for all rates. Back-casting revisions: In the Johns Hopkins’ data, the structure is to provide the cumulative number of cases per day, which presumes an ever-increasing sequence of numbers, e.g., 0,0,1,1,2,5,7,7,7, etc. However, revisions do occur and would look like, 0,0,1,1,2,5,7,7,6. To accommodate this, we revised the lists to eliminate decreases, which make this list look like, 0,0,1,1,2,5,6,6,6.Reporting Interval: In the early weeks, Johns Hopkins' data provided reporting every day regardless of change. In late April, this changed allowing for days to be skipped if no new data was available. The day was still included, but the value of total cases was set to Null. The processing therefore was updated to include tracking of the spacing between intervals with valid values.100 News Cases in a day as a spike threshold: Empirically, this is based on COVID-19’s rate of spread, or r0 of ~2.5, which indicates each case will infect between two and three other people. There is a point at which each administrative area’s capacity will not have the resources to trace and account for all contacts of each patient. Thus, this is an indicator of uncontrolled or epidemic trend. Spiking activity in combination with the rate of new cases is the basis for determining whether an area has a spreading or epidemic trend (see below). Source used as basis:World Health Organization (WHO). 16-24 Feb 2020. Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Obtained online.Mean of Recent Tail of NCD = Empirical, and a COVID-19-specific basis for establishing a recent trend. The recent mean of NCD is taken from the most recent fourteen days. A minimum of 21 days of cases is required for analysis but cannot be considered reliable. Thus, a preference of 42 days of cases ensures much higher reliability. This analysis is not explanatory and thus, merely represents a likely trend. The tail is analyzed for the following:Most recent 2 days: In terms of likelihood, this does not mean much, but can indicate a reason for hope and a basis to share positive change that is not yet a trend. There are two worthwhile indicators:Last 2 days count of new cases is less than any in either the past five or 14 days. Past 2 days has only one or fewer new cases – this is an extremely positive outcome if the rate of testing has continued at the same rate as the previous 5 days or 14 days. Most recent 5 days: In terms of likelihood, this is more meaningful, as it does represent at short-term trend. There are five worthwhile indicators:Past five days is greater than past 2 days and past 14 days indicates the potential of the past 2 days being an aberration. Past five days is greater than past 14 days and less than past 2 days indicates slight positive trend, but likely still within peak trend time frame.Past five days is less than the past 14 days. This means a downward trend. This would be an